Jobs report stinks just a little

The markets are up a little on the news that there was a fairly good monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor last Friday. But on closer examination, I think it just stinks a little. While the private sector did create 137,000 new jobs, which is almost good (remember, we need 200,000 per month to recover), manufacturing lost 13,000. While we did make some headway last spring, overall these past 12 months, the progress has not been good at all. Recovery in total private sector jobs has been less than half of what is needed, and manufacturing is in about the same boat. So, while we are not being dragged into a second recession, we are not pulling out of this one either.

In addition, average hourly earnings has remained pretty stagnant also. While food and energy prices have gone up about 10% (very rough estimate) over the past 3 years (the reason they tell you there is no inflation is they measure your pay, not prices), wages have remained nearly the same. This means that even if you do have a job, things are not getting better.

As if all that is not enough, President Obama has proposed a half billion dollar "stimulus" plan that will likely act like throwing an anchor off the back of a boat. Sure the boat will move forwards from the stimulus caused by throwing the anchor, but then the anchor will be a drag for years to come.

The only good news about all this stagnant economic stuff (that is, if you have a steady job) is that gas prices won't be rising much in the next few months.


Meanwhile, copper, which I use as a forecaster of where manufacturing is going, has lost about 20% of its value. This is a bad thing. Since manufacturing is a large user of copper, it means manufacturing is slowing down. No matter what the ISM index says, if copper use is down, manufacturing is, or will be, slowing down. At least that is what happened in the past. It isn't that I have a crystal ball, but I have seen this before.


Some people have been saying the price of silver crashed but really all it did was lose some gains it made this past couple of years that were completely out of line with how much silver should cost. It is still over priced, if you ask me, but then again, I have said gold was over priced for five out of the last five years.


A predicted shortage of cotton has failed to materialize at this time, so goods made with cotton will remain economical for the next several months.


Other good news is, as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the anticipated worldwide famine will not develop. Not because food production is all that much better, but because it turns out that the quantity of food wasted in more affluent countries is just simply colossal, and that can absorb the losses, with just a 10% to 20% rise in prices. I will likely be writing more on famines, epidemics and other disasters soon, though, as they are not going to go away.

Obama and False Christianity

A recent conversation on another forum got me thinking. The discussion was about President Obama, and his supposed christianity, as well as his animosity towards Fundamentalist Christians.

As soon as a couple of videos of Obama's speeches were posted, some of his supporters began saying they were Photoshopped, so I presented evidence from one of Obama's own speeches, and posted by his own self.

As soon as I posted it I knew there would be a problem. The typical Christian, even if they kinda know what Christianity is, cannot discern true from fake Christians. Most, even if they have spent many years in Church and looked up the verses referred to in Sunday School and in the sermon, still have little overall knowledge of the Bible.

I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record on this. Constantly harping that Christians need to dig into the Bible, but how else are we to know the true Christians from the Counterfeit s? Especially if the Counterfeits are doing what many believe are good works?

To make thinks worse, the site I referenced was from the United Church of Christ (UCC). While the "Churchs of Christ" had a good reputation many years ago (though I have heard no news lately), UCC is a different organization. Wikipedia says the "United Church of Christ" is "less historically related" and that is an understatement. One is a separatist movement, separating themselves from the mainline churches that had fallen into apostasy, the UCC is an ecumenical organization.

Now, ecumenical was once a good thing. It meant that faithful, Bible believing churches would get along. Today it is a snake in the grass, teaching there is no difference between churches even if they have renounced the Bible as the central authority, and teach that there are many ways to get to heaven.

I also noticed, as I researched the various parts of this article, that the wording of the ecumenical movement is getting more subtle. This is disturbing, as it will make it more and more difficult to spot the counterfeits without actually being inside their organizations. In addition they have been embarking on their own versions of Bible dictionaries and their own interpretation guides. I suspect it will not be long before the truth will be completely indistinguishable to those who are not already saved. And I am certain this is one of the elements that will bring the Rapture and Second Coming of Christ.


The Bible is the Word of life. As such, studying the Bible is crucial to the life and growth of every believer. -- John MacArthur

Just some updates

Just some updates on some of the things I have written about over the past few months.

The Famine I wrote about a couple of months ago will not be as severe as I first thought. There will likely be shortages, but instead of the price of food doubling, this time it is only expected to rise by about 15%.

Some tidbits as to why it isn't as bad as I thought it would be:
Corn crop not hurt as bad as expected, but will be late.
Wheat harvests also not hurt as bad as I thought.

But the biggest factor is waste. Apparently, both the US and Europe still waste a good bit more food than I thought. How much, I don't know. I am still researching that (a lot of junk to sift through on the Net). But the bottom line is that the crop loss can be easily offset, this time by reducing the waste in our systems. As these things go in cycles we should have a few more years (or not, since these things cannot really be predicted) before a really bad famine sets in.

Obvious by now, this isn't the big famine mentioned in Revelation, but I will write more on both the coming famines and the 4 Horsemen of Revelation later.

Closely related to famine is epidemic. There is a strain of Bird Flu (in India) that is beginning a breakout, but it is still unclear if it presents a pandemic threat. Remember, the time to prepare is before things like this hit the media and panic ensues. As a related note, Polio is making a comeback. The majority of the US is vaccinated, but there could easily be a spread into small segments of our population, which would cause a panic. Keep your own vaccines up to date and there should be no problems. (And that goes for your family and friends) And lastly, MRSA strains are showing up that are resistant to antibacterial ointments. These are the ones found in the typical family medicine cabinet. Time to look into old time (18th century) remedies.


On a completely different note, as I have been listening to the expository recordings made by Pastor Chuck Smith covering the whole Bible, I have realized they were done over a period of about 20 years. Makes sense. He did something like 232 of them, and no more than one per week.

Zero Gain Economy

Well, the jobs report came out riday, as usual. And as usual, it was a cold slap of reality in a warm fuzzy market that usually thrives on "you tell me no bad news and I will tell you no bad news" in order to look up.

There was zero gain, zero loss, in the overall jobs. The almost (well, not quite almost) bright spot is private hiring was up by 17,000 (we need more than 200,000 each month). The really dim spot is that manufacturing fell by 3000.

Another zero in the news was the interest rate. It is axiomatic that lower interest rates encourage economic growth, but fuel inflation. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Ben Bernanke recently stated the federal funds rate will remain at or near zero for the next two years.

While Bernanke may have prevented the US (and maybe the world) from going into the dreaded "double dip" in this recession, (and I have, from time to time, said he is probably the only guy in charge who actually know what he is doing) he doesn't have the tools to pull us out of the recession. Especially when most of those in Washington are busy trying to hang a millstone around our necks. We are still in the same condition as when I wrote, last month, that "gloomy just doesn't convey a strong enough message."

On the other hand, the assurance that interest rates will stay at or near zero for the next two years will likely be the factor that will start us into an inflationary cycle. One problem with keeping interest rates low (from a US standpoint) is it leads to a Dollar Carry problem. This is when investors can borrow money from the US at a marvelously low rate, and use it to buy bonds or other investment vehicles in Europe or Asia that pay a higher rate. To compensate for the flow of monies out of our economy, we will have little choice but to print quite a bit more, thus leading to inflation.

I am not qualified to predict how much or when this inflation will take place. It could be a year or three, and it could be 5% or 35%. I could guess two years and 20%, but that is just a guess. I will guess, also, that shortages of raw products will become a factor in a year or two, and they will lead to both inflationary pressures and slowing of the economy.

The downgrade of our national credit rating first by Moody's threat (even though they may deny it), and then by S&P, has had little impact on the overall economy. It seems they dragged their feet long enough that all the investors had already downgraded us in their minds. Still, the US treasury bond is considered the safest (really, there is no thought in the market that it is anything but 100% safe) of all investments, even though return is next to nothing.

And there is another serious threat however: public opinion seems to turn against anyone who attempts to fix our economic problems. There is two reasons for that. One is man's natural tendency to avoid anything that requires sacrifice. I mentioned this in a previous posting. The other is the press, which is doing Satan's bidding, to keep the liberals in power.

Of course, all of this seems to be in preparation for the end times. There are many who say they can see the US in prophesy. Well it is there, but not where they are looking. We are a bit player, a nobody. We are found in Ezekiel, complaining and doing nothing. A has been. Broken and sunken into depravity, we will sit on the sidelines and whine during the end times.

I don't know this for certain, of course. The timeline looked all set to go (rapture and war of Magog and all) once before, but then God raised up Ronald Reagan, and used him to set the timetable back more than 20 years. No man knows the day or the hour (and while I find it fun to guess the decade, I don't even know that for certain).

Teaching Error, the issue of writing

I recently forgot myself and made a post to a humor thread about the origin of one of the Psalms. I was roundly criticized for doing so, as I should have been, since it was outside of the topic. (So I am also guilty of 2 Tim 4:2)


But that post revealed that some Churches are still teaching an error that was considered to be common knowledge in the 19th century, and later in the 20th century, mostly among those who lacked knowledge of the history of that period, and knew even less about the Bible. There are, of course, those who deliberately propagate this myth (as a heresy) with intent to undermine the foundations of Christianity, by saying the Bible is not the Word of God, but is merely a collection of stories made up and assembled by some mystical clerics only a few hundred years BC.


It is that the Bible wasn't a written book until only a few hundred years BC. I don't know where this started, but I suspect it was by those who refused to believe, and therefore wanted to destroy the foundations of Christianity, since if the early Scriptures weren't that they say they were, and were not preserved as God promised in Isaiah, and as confirmed by Jesus, then they could say that all of the Bible is a lie.


That this should happen should be no surprise, since both Paul (verses 3 and 4) and Peter (verse 1) warned us of these false teachers. But to allow these false teachings to stand makes us a party to the lie, and allows the enemies of Christ to place a barrier between men and the understanding of God.

Annual Gas Price Forecast

I recently realized I had neglected to make my annual gas price forecast at the end of July, as is my normal habit (been doing it for about 8 years). Well, it isn't going to be so important in the future as it was in the past, as crude oil and therefore fuel will not be going into an ever growing shortage as was thought in the past. We now know of reserves that will sustain us for the next 40 years (sorry, I don't have a good supporting article for this) if need be. The "Peak oil problem," for the time being, has been defeated. Reliability of delivery is becoming a bigger question, but I will save that for another article.

As the world economy and more locally, the US economy have drifted into the doldrums, the price of oil has stabilized in the $80 to $90 range, and actually these numbers reflect optimism on the part of speculators that the world economy will improve. Should we slide into the dreaded "double dip" recession (increasingly unlikely, since Bernenky announced interest rates would remain near zero for the next couple of years), oil prices will slide back into the $70's of dollars a barrel.

Well, using my formula, $80 a barrel translates to $3.70 per gallon (regular unleaded, here in rural Texas), and $90 a barrel translates to $4.10 per gallon.

While that is still quite a range (but really only 10%), it is more dependent on politics and weather than it is on any predictable factor. Most importantly, it is dependent on how friendly (or, more likely, unfriendly) the current administration (read EPA) and courts are towards the oil industry, and how much our government devalues our money by printing more of it.

Preparing for a disaster

A hurricane is approaching North Carolina and the Eastern shore tomorrow (Saturday) and I heard some government official on the news last night saying:

Friday is a good day to prepare.

NO! Friday is the day everyone will panic. I even heard on the news Thursday night that some stores as far north as New Jersey were sold out of supplies.

Preparing is what you do a week before, or a month before. Or even a year before. Not the day before.

The Four Cylinder Engine

The Four Cylinder engine has been used in cars and trucks for around 100 years now.

Technically the first was in 1890, but in its second year of life (1913) the Chevrolet company was selling a car with a 4 cyl engine. They have been made with displacements from less than 1 to almost 3 Liters (although bigger ones have been made in the past). The inline-four is the most common engine configuration in modern cars.

Is it no wonder I have owned mostly cars and trucks with 4 cyl. engines?

I have considered a car with three cylinder engine, but I was formerly concerned about how long they last. Today it looks like they will last quite a while, but I think the jury is still out.

Over the past 7 years, the price of fuel hasn't consistently gone up, however, so fuel mileage may not be as big an issue as it used to be.

The Market Crash - Part 2

Well, what a difference a week makes. Or not. Everything seems to be settling down, the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and other indexes are settling. But things are settling a bit lower than when they started. Except commodities. Gold and Silver are still very inflated, and a few other commodities are up 10 to 30%. A notable exception is copper, which is slightly lower than it was a couple weeks ago. Oil, while down, didn't drop below $75 (or at least didn't stay there). Gasoline has fallen about 10 -20 cents, and this may remain as is for a few weeks, but not for long. And the 5 year T-Bill has dropped below 1% for the first time in history.

Here is what it all means. Ignore the indexes for now. And the credit downgrade. The indexes are very emotion driven and in the long run, don't mean much. The credit downgrade was something everybody knew was coming down the pike. Oh, yes, congress didn't do their job when it comes to reigning in spending, but rather compromised. But the better of the market managers saw that coming too.

The low interest rate on the 5 year T-Bill means two things. Much of the world thinks the US is very likely to be able to stay solvent for at least 5 more years, and there will be no improvement in the economy for the average man for at least 5 more years.

Gold and silver are way up. Most people don't trust the markets, and some don't trust the governments any more. Gold and Silver are a hedge against both market crashes and against the government printing vast amounts of money, resulting in high inflation.

Copper is down. Copper is used in industry. A rising price of copper would indicate a health industrial and manufacturing sector. That copper is declining is a forewarning that the industrial and manufacturing sector is not so well, and that another downturn is likely. That a pound of is still above the price of gallon of gasoline is a good sign, though. When the two prices reverse, a serious drop in production and thus in all other sectors of the economy is imminent.

Oil, while down, stayed above $75. This tells me the oil speculators think the worldwide economy will remain healthy. These guys lose there asses on a regular basis, though, so I am not so certain how much faith I would have in them.

The Market Crash

The "market" crashed a couple days ago, and everybody is in panic, but the actual economy isn't really any different than it was two weeks ago when the "market" looked good.

While the latest drop in numbers coincided with the budget deal in Congress, they were not caused by that budget deal. The issues in Greece, Italy, Ireland, and Spain overshadow our problems. The news from the European Central Bank and our own manufacturing outlook report (numbers from the ISM about our manufacturing sector show only 8 of the last 20 months the manufacturing employment picture was positive) were the cause, with a little help from China saying their economy might also be slowing down. And this all came in a week.

Don't get me wrong, the budget deal was a bad one, with Congress still kicking the can down the road on the debt and the disasterous spending levels that have been going on for several (about 8) years now.

This has become like pushing the bus over the cliff. The TEA party pushed candidates into Congress to stop the bus from going off the cliff, and this deal amounts to "well, we will let you push the front tires over the edge, but then we must talk about finding a way to keep the rest of it from going over for a while.

The liberals argument was spectacularly disingenuous. To say that the conservatives were going to cause the US to default on its bonds is like calling up your bank and telling them you won't be able to pay off your Mastercard with your Visa card unless the bank increases your limit on your Visa Card. But if they do that, you promise to reduce the amount you spend in the future, but not reduce it to what you make.

As for the overall outlook for the economy, in light of the employment data released today (and last month) and the probability of global famine that I wrote of last week, gloomy just doesn't convey a strong enough message. To put it bluntly, the economy, from the perspective of the jobs market, will not see any real improvement for several years - if it ever does. Our failure to see the road ahead, and our outdated tax code (we should have changed over to sales based tax code before now, and taxed sales on the Internet as well) have more than likely doomed our nation to be thrown on the scrap heap of history.

Now, it is just a matter of how many years before the disaster arrives. It could be two, or it could be twenty-two. Either way, I don't see much chance that we will recover. The last real recovery was in the mid 80's. The ones in the late 90's and then in 2004-2006 were fake, phoney, bubbles doomed to burst. And indeed, at this time, our economy is a bubble built on another bubble.

I will have to write more on this later, as I have run out of time

Defending against Heresy

In these times, when there is little persecution in the US (there is some persecution and even arrests from time to time for true Christians in the US) it is easy for counterfeits to pass themselves off as Christians. For the lay person, the best security against heresy and counterfeit christianity is expository study of the Bible.


Expository study of the Bible means to expose the underlying meaning. This isn't some mystical or secret way of looking at the Bible, but rather, it simply requires close examination of what the Bible says and the comparison of one passage to other passages throughout the Bible, such as comparing the description of the Birth of Jesus to prophetic passages in the Old Testament that foretold of His coming. An expositor is a teacher that teaches the Scriptures by going through passages a few verses or a few chapters at a time, rather than teaching topic by topic.

There are about 100 or so events and stories in the Bible, we Christians (at the very least) need to know most of them, and know the underlying lessons for most of them. And this is just a start. Don't worry, you will never know all there is to know about the Bible, or even all there is to know about any major book.

Today we have many tools to assist with Bible study that were not available in the past, some not even a few years ago. MP3 players (like the I-Pad) are one such tool, allowing you to listen whenever and wherever you have time. I listen while driving to and from work (about 40 min each way, since I drive slow) I have found two excellent "Expositors" on the Internet, with extensive audio files that can be downloaded and listened to on an MP3 player.

One of the oldest and best known is Dr. J. Vernon McGee, who made more than 400 hours of recordings, specifically as an expository study of the Bible. He finished a 5 year tour of the Bible, and he called it the "Bible Bus." It has been playing on more than 100 radio stations around the world for many years.

He finished the 5 year study in the mid 70's and it has been repeated every 5 years ever since. He established the benchmark for all expository study, and I have been going through his "tour" for over two years. Because it was made just for radio, each of his recordings is exactly 26 minutes long, and contains about 22 or 23 minutes of his teachings.

Now, I will say that I don't agree with Vernon McGee's interpretation all of the time, but I do agree with him the vast majority of the time. Also, since he teaches the Scriptures without getting too entangled in the politics of the moment, when he makes a commentary on society, it is surprisingly relevant to the current day's issues.

The only downside to Vernon McGee is that he has a fairly steep, old English, vocabulary. It will, from time to time make you wonder what he is talking about, unless you read the King James Bible, Shakespeare, or some other classical literature.

Chuck Smith did a similar tour of the Bible, around 2004, for his evening Church group. While I haven't listened to very much of his recordings (about 15 hours, or so) I have listened enough to know he teaches well. The advantage of his recordings are the language he uses is less old English, and therefore easier to listen to. There are two disadvantages, both related to the fact that he did them for a live audience. First, since it is a live recording, some bits and pieces refer to things in the audience, that you cannot see. Second, since they were not made for radio, the length of the recordings varies from about 20 min to around 2 hours.

The Coming Famine

In the coming year, we run a risk of worldwide food shortages. This will come in two forms. In third world countries there will be widespread starvation, as availability of food simply disappears. In developed countries prices will spike, and the poor in those countries will not have enough to eat, despite attempts by governments and charitable organizations to keep pace with the skyrocketing needs.

There will, of course, be people of wealth (about 2% to 5% of the population) in third world countries that will have sufficient wealth to have plenty. They will even be involved in profiteering off the misery of the masses, and the attempts by charitable organizations to deliver food to those masses.

There will also be some in between situations, where food will be available, though in short supply and at exorbitant prices, and in those places there will be riots and wars.

There have been a couple of close calls in the past, with world food inventories falling to near zero, political and market forces pushing food to the wealthy and well connected and for short
times there was starvation in some regions.

I will admit I could not find good references to the information, but I do remember around 1996, there was an article saying we were down to three weeks food in the US. But of course, the next crops were harvested and things went back to normal. And in reality, we are in perpetually the same shape today as we were in that close call. Only now we call it "Just in Time Supply System."

America once had massive warehouses, and silos dotted the land, full of food, stored up for times of need. Or at least stored until someone ordered it to fill our grocery shelves. But that system was deemed inefficient, as someone had to pay for those warehouses. Now, the "Just in Time" system forecasts needs, and computers know the moment there is a sale of an item from the grocery, so that the next shipment of a product is in route to the store as the sale of the previous one is being sold. The next shipment of the product to the distribution center is in route as the current one is being loaded onto the truck to be taken to the store. The next shipment after that is being harvested somewhere in the world, and already earmarked for delivery to the distribution center. It is all like a big pipeline.


In this system there are no major grain stores or warehouses. What is in the pipeline is what is in the system. And last I checked, that amounts to about seven weeks of supplies, total. This system works, as long as crops somewhere in the world are being harvested on a continued basis, and as long as when one food gets short people can eat something else.

We are coming to a day in the very near future, somewhere in late 2011 or early 2012 (most likely), crop failures all over the world will have a real and lasting impact on our food supply. Right now, no one is talking about this because it is so subtle. (as in epidemics, we seem to have two modes of thinking, complacency and panic) In reality, we are likely to see only 15% - 30% drop in crop availability. But that can translate to doubling or more of the prices here, and complete loss of availability in some regions.

But this isn't going to be a one week or one month event. There are impending crop failures all around the world right now, and these failures will happen over a period of months or maybe even years, and as the world population continues to rise, the shortages generated in 2012 will continue to echo across the world for years. And the political fallout, as the wealthy and well connected attempt to try to enrich themselves on the plight of the masses, will result in massive consolidation of power and control over increasingly scarce and valuable commodities.

It is not like this has not been warned about before. While most of the "news" releases about an impending famine have been self serving panic ads meant to make people buy their products, some of them are from the science community, and some of those were from people who will not directly benefit from the changes they advocate. Most of those have been talking about a famine 20 or more years down the road, but with the sudden rash of crop failures around the globe, it may be at our door step within the next year or two.

The Bible warns us in The Revelation, there will be a famine in the last days. It says the famine will be bad enough that a laborer's wages for a day will be sufficient only to feed him for a day, with nothing left over for housing, a family, or anything else. The only question, now, should be: is this the one the Bible talks about, or is this merely a harbinger of what is to come?

July Economics non-report

32 years ago, President Jimmy Carter made a speech in which he outlined a general malaise that gripped the nation, keeping us in an unending slow to nonexistent economic growth.

Malaise. That word works today, too.

The biggest difference is that just over a year after we elected a new government, bent on breaking out of that malaise, 67% of the people are blaming that new crop of congressmen, just elected, for the problems they are trying to solve.

What this really amounts to is that the public has gotten the first glimpse of the fact that they will have to make some sacrifices to return our nation to a path of prosperity, and they don't want any of it.

Some years ago, I said the American public, having tired of freedom and prosperity, have elected a government that will leave them impoverished and enslaved. Now it looks like they are happy being impoverished and enslaved. At least then they don't have to do the hard work and make the sacrifices that are required for freedom and prosperity.

A little catching up

Well, a month of hiatus from this blog
turned into 100 days, so I will have
a bit of catching up to do.

Apostasy, Heresy and Idolatry are rampant in both society and the Church today. In the past few months, I discovered that many of the old mainline churches began going apostate around the turn of the 20th century and were more or less completely apostate after WWII. This did not happen in the past 40 years, as I had assumed. Some had fallen away long before that. A letter to J.Vernon McGee in the early 70's said the apathy in the Church there "makes for a dark day" in Briton. It makes for a dark day everywhere.

A few definitions are in order, for those who don't study religion on a daily basis.
Apostasy is turning away from what one previously professed. A nonbeliever cannot be an apostate, only someone or a group (Church) that previously professed belief in the Bible can be apostate.
Heresy is the espousing of an idea that is clearly at odds with one of the major doctrines of the
Bible. There are only 7 to 10 (depending on who you ask) major docrines of Christianity. Most
of the arguments in Church groups is about minor doctrines.
Idolatry is the affection of some object or idea that one gives a priority above God.


Idolatry, Heresy, and Apostasy:
The "trinity of failure" of the Church.


Our nation, as are most nations, is steeped in idolatry. But our nation is not what is in question. "God's people" are in question. In ancient times, Israel was "put out of the land" more than once. And always for idolatry, not for other sins. Today, the "God's People" in question is "The Church." Not this church or that church or the church over yonder. And most certainly not the Roman Catholic Church. But rather, the Real Church, or some call it "The Church Invisible." Those who believe Jesus died and is Risen, and by whom they believe they are saved. And yet, these same Christians, who recognize they should worship God, often embrace the idols of our current civilization.

Most of us went through the comic superheroes phase as pre-teens. Many, however, still keep up with those same superheroes. For others, tuning in to watch the news when some megamillionaires (like Oprah Winfrey or Donald Trump) are the subject is commonplace in the houses of both the unsaved and the saved. Many Christians can name, and give statistics for dozens of national sports league atheletes, others can give the resume of many hollywood idols.

How many Bible charactors can you name? How many books of the Bible? How much time do you spend in the Bible, as compared to People Magazine, or Sports Illustrated. Is your idol found in pop culture?

Some church buildings are places of worship and comfort for all who go there, but usually the church building is a place where a few believers and a few curious gather with quite a few pretenders, who desire to make people think they believe. We should tolerate this for now, in the hope that the few curious will find Jesus. But maybe not. Are we promoting the defamation of the Gospel? Is it time to rethink where the faithful gather?

For what, do most Christians worship God? Why do they think they are Christians? Why do they go to Church or pray?

Many say they believe the Bible, but do they even know what is in the Bible? How can they believe what they have no knowledge of? Some no longer believe the Bible, but clearly state that they have moved on, and have no need of it.

There are some confusing statistics, to be sure.

According to the recent study by LifeWay Research, 62 percent of American adults own a King James Version Bible. But look more closely at the article I linked to. "Those who read the Bible more than once a month." Once a month? And just over a quarter don't read the KJV, because it is too difficult to read. So why do they have it?
Status symbol?
Ornamentation?
Idol?

The Truth? "According to an earlier LifeWay study, only 16 percent of regular church attenders read the Bible daily." So where do they get their theology and doctrine? I would be it is from the heretics on religious TV networks. And some get fed a dose of heresy in their own Church, but cannot see the difference, because they do not know the Scriptures firsthand.

More truth. I have my own Idols, and must fight with them daily. My pride, and my interest in economics and politics are prone to be my idols.

What to do about all this? Well, that may be addressed in some later article. For now, go read some more of the Bible. You will never get enough.

Will be taking a Hiatus

From time to time, I find it necessary to take time off from blogging, and this looks like the time. Therefore, I plan to take a hiatus for the rest of April. Too much to do: Taxes, spring cleaning, gardening, etc.


If you are looking for more knowledge of the
Bible, go to ThruTheBible.org and climb aboard the Bible Bus

About the economy

Jobs still look good thru end of March

Oil and Gasoline are still going up. And they will continue upwards for at least the rest of this year. After that, I don't know if things will crash, like they did in the fall of 2007.

Government still claims there is no inflation (translation: your pay isn't going up).

I said a couple months ago that I might look into silver, and I did: Silver is wildly over priced. This past few months I looked at how many batteries I typically use in a year, and bought that many (and a few more). Energy is going up. Buy ahead, but beware, typical alkaline batteries like I use have a 3 year shelf life.

That Pesky Check Engine Light

Over the past 16 years, on board diagnostics have become universal in our vehicles. The most common system, by far, is the OBD2, or "on board diagnostics version 2." Because we generally have learned to ignore all the new gadgets under the hood ("just some air pollution device"), most of us never know what that "computer" the mechanic talks about really is.

Just in the past couple of years, "readers" for this system have become common and inexpensive. (Before last year, I never saw one less than $100) The absolutely lowest price readers may just read out a code, but for not much more, you can get one that tells what the code means and is able to reset it, thus turning of that pesky check
engine light.

These things are great but, as any shade tree mechanic will tell you, they don't replace doing the basics. I am often astonished at the simple things people don't do to take care of their vehicles today. For the average person, owning the average car or truck, they should still pop the hood about once a week and check all the fluids. This means oil, transmission fluid, power steering, coolant, and brakes. One note on these, especially on the brakes, most vehicles are designed so you can shine a flashlight through the resevoir to check the level. Don't open it if you can help it. And don't add brake fluid, if it is low, it is time for maintenance.

And check the tires too. I do this visually each week (on my work truck I do this daily, as it is driven in a hostile environment), and with a gauge once or more a month. Low tires steal your money.

Now, on the subject of the check engine light, and the OBD2 system that turns it on, manufactures will always be looking for ways to bilk money out of their customers. So in times past, they included "secret" codes that only the dealers knew what they were. Today, the sensors and codes continue to become more complex, with new codes likely to be unknown to the available readers. A possible follow on to the OBD2 system integrates it, wirelessly, into computer networks owned by either the government or the car manufacture. This is already underway in some makes and models and is likely to allow a great deal of mischief on the parts of both. I don't have enough information on these developments at this time, but plan to do more research in the near future.

On the other hand, there are some codes that have a simple fix. One code indicates a leak in the fuel system, and that one may be no more than "you didn't tighten the fuel cap enough," or left the engine running while putting fuel in the vehicle. These are big no-no's, as today's fuel systems are sealed, and only vented through a charcoal canister (known as an evap system). Others may require fixing, but not right away. I had a problem with the torque converter clutch being "stuck off." OK, it is a problem, but only costs me a mile per gallon in the near term. I have been erasing this code about once a week for a couple of months now. I plan to get it fixed, but don't really have a specific idea of when.

Economic impact of disasters

First, the Middle East, then Japan

Unrest in the Middle East caused oil to rise a few dollars in price, but not as much as is believed. It accounts for just 20 cents per gallon currently, but as Libyan Rebels have successes, saboteurs may strike directly at oil facilities there and in Saudi Arabia, and that would have more impact.

There is talk of the US intervening. I don't think we should. We are stretched to thin as it is, and I for one am not certain we want the rebels to win. I don't know who is behind them yet, and it could be the Muslim Brotherhood. If so, all these countries that are warring about "liberty" will convert to Fundamentalist Islam.

Meanwhile on the other side of the world, the impact of an earthquake and tsunami on Japan will be felt around the world. The markets have already gone negative, and there will be a loss of jobs as some good formerly shipped from Japan will be reduced or stopped. Ironically, oil and gas will go down in price, but this is only temporary, as replacing the electric generation capacity from the two destroyed nuclear power plants will require large quantities of coal, oil, and gas.

The commodities will go up, because the Japanese are people who harvest from the oceans and make things. The will be busy rebuilding for a couple of years, meaning smaller harvests (and to be sure, the ocean will have less now to harvest, as the earthquake and tsunami killed a portion of it) and more demand for raw materials to rebuild their country. We saw this same phenomenon with Katrina, and this is several times larger than Katrina.

More money being spent on rebuilding, less invested in industry, more demand on resources, and less resources all impact inflation. This will definitely mean more inflation, as you and I see it. The government numbers may not show anything at all, since our wages will not go up.

And, last, of course the anti nuclear lunatics are coming out of the woodwork to spout off their insanity. Meltdown or no meltdown from these plants, building more plant of our own is a must. We are many years behind on building nuclear plants, and several years behind on building coal powered plants. Certainly, there are things to be learned from the way this disaster unfolded, but there is no sanity in those who say we should not build.

Lessons We Do Not Learn

As I watched news coverage of the Earthquake in Japan, there was a well covered side story about the approach of a tsunami into Hawaii. One news agency was in contact with an employee who was there on maternity leave. They said they first noticed something when everyone at a restaurant was on their cell phones. OK, now we know how fast news travels by cell phone, but later, they said they were calling by "land line" because the cell phone system was "a mess," meaning it wasn't working any more.

She also said there were lines at the gas stations, and people panic buying at the grocery stores. (She needed formula, if I heard correctly.) When she got to wherever she evacuated to, people were filling tubs and any other containers with water. Everyone was trying to call everyone, which is why the cell phone system was not working. And she said: 'the people are reacting calmly - this is something they have practiced. '

What have we learned from this? Or realized that we have not learned? Here in Texas, we recently had a minor emergency, and the local govenment used one of those mass robo-caller systems to try to alert everybody. The cell phone system overloaded. Way back in the aftermath of the 9-11 crisis, this was identified as a problem, and a solution was proposed. Limit voice calls to emergency personell only, and upgrade the texting system to allow it to handle everyone at once trying to access it. That proposal was never followed through. So, one of the first lessons is that the primary commercial communications systems will be the first to fail.

In almost every emergency, people swamp the gas stations and grocery stores. If you always have a half a tank, you can go 100 miles at highway speeds or go for 4 hours in stop and go traffic. (Three if you run your air conditioner.) The crisis on Hawaii is likely to only last a few days, and you can keep enough food on hand for a few days if you aren't picky about taste and variety. Plan to eat beans and rice. Water is another big concern. You will need some way to capture, filter and sterilize water. Planning ahead allows you to watch every one else panic, while you remain calm. Lesson two. Do not leave your gas tank less than half full, have some rations on hand, and a means to obtain water.

One of the biggest lessons here is that all preparations and planning MUST be done BEFORE the disaster. When nothing seems to be happening. Take a few minutes and think through every possible disaster that could come your way. Think through some of the improbible ones too. Nearly everyone in the US is vulnerable to earthquake. Half are vulerable to flood (or losing power or water due to flood.) Epidemic could shut down the trucking system that delivers our food. A pipeline break could close all the gas stations tommorrow.

When evacuations are necessary, the government usually has a plan in mind to move you a minimal distance and then ship goods to you. That is fine if you are indigent. If you are a person of means (remember my test, if you can afford cable TV, you can afford to plan for disasters and help others), you need to do more. Evacuate to twice the distance. Leave the government and Red Cross help to others who need it more. You will be better off, and so will others.

Finally - economic turnaround?

Well, maybe. We are finally in a cycle of job creation, and manufacturing is up at the same time. But not enough to call this a recovery. Not Yet. We have seen manufacturing gains (49,000 last month, 33,000 this month) but there are still formidable hurdles facing us. The price of energy. The greed of the limousine liberal elite. The public employee unions. Our lethargy in facing a menacing threat from Islamists. Our failure to address the threat of those who hate God and are undermining America because it once stood for Christianity. The specter of high inflation still looms, and just around the corner, unless (as I do) you count that it has already begun.

The fact is, I still don't think this will be a real recovery. The last "recovery," from 2002 to 2006 was hollow and fake. Real income and wealth in Blue Collar America declined. The only increase was in what we bought by borrowing and amassing debt. In this "recovery" there is a sizable increase in spending, and yet the Baltic Dry Index and Rail Index are showing a slow slide. This tells me that what extra spending is being done is not durable goods, but really is an increase in waste of consumer dollars on things like video games, phone "ap's," and cable or satellite TV.

This increase in borrowing and spending in US households is a reversal of the sudden frugality that gripped the nation just a couple years ago. And while it may temporarily lead to the appearance of better economic times, it is just a repeat of what led to this crisis in the first place.



Just a couple of After Thoughts

Gas Prices. I forecast before that they would hit $3.50 by May, and said a couple weeks ago, the turmoil in the mideast is not the cause of rising prices. Well, I need to modify that slightly. I estimate 20 cents a gallon of our gas prices is due to the turmoil in the mideast. But while that 20 cents is a temporary rise, the steady rise in prices due to increased demand around the world will continue. Currently I expect the price of gas to top $4 (here in Texas) and go on up to around $4.20 to $4.50 in the next 12 months. I don't think we will see a massive downturn like the last one, but I do think the upwards climb in both usage and price of fuels will stall and either level out or turn back slightly downwards. At what point that stall will occur is beyond my expertise.

Prices of energy and commodities will continue upwards as a portion of our wages for the foreseeable future. There may be times of respite, but the days will be increasingly more difficult, until the Biblical expression of "a quart of wheat for a days wage" is true. Unless there is a die off of over 1/3 of the earth's human population, with no similar die off of other species, we are indeed going to be seeing a worldwide famine in the next 10 to 40 years.

We could delay the more difficult days ahead for quite some time if we would pursue nuclear, oil sands, coal and natural gas with fervor, and forget the silliness of the global warming fools. But ultimately, our population has already reached a point where the earth cannot sustain our food supply, and our fate is sealed. Now, it is only a matter of when.

Gas Prices Soaring Amid Mideast Turmoil

Ummm, not so much.

What part of this is so hard to understand?

"The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline costs 48 cents more this February than last."

OK, that is an increase of 16%. Hurts, yes, but it was entirely predictable. I must mention that I have no formal training in economics, except one class in High School (30 years ago).

Are we heading for $5 a gallon gasoline? Yes, as I said about 6 years ago. The only reason we haven't seen it already is the economic disaster of 2008/2009 delayed it.

There are some things that have changed. China is the big one. As I said last year, and about 30 months ago, China is a big player in this market now, and the winter decline in fuel prices will no longer be seen.

UPDATE: On review of this article, I noticed I did not include a link to the article that gave me the headline. Here it is: Gas Prices Soaring Amid Mideast Turmoil
.

Our Favorite Mode of Transportation

I have neglected this topic for about a year now, but plan to write a series of articles on our favorite mode of transportation, and of course some other modes, as well.

The first thing I want to mention is that I believe most of the problems our auto industry has faced in the past 40 years have been mostly their own undoing. This is not to say that unions and government have not played a role, but that much of what circulates about those entities causing trouble for the automotive industry has been pure fiction.

Take for instance, the widely circulated myth that CAFE standards have hurt them. Quite the opposite is true. Had they not been forced to deal with the gas mileage problems, they would have been in bankruptcy years earlier than they were. Why do Toyota and Honda not have problems with gas mileage standards? They saw the problem before hand, and adapted more quickly.

Manufacturing up - among down numbers

Economists are blaming the weather. Like January and February are different this year than any other year. Well they are different, but not by that much, that you can blame the economy on them.

Employment numbers are dismal this month, but with a slight bright spot in manufacturing. Manufacturing added 49,000 jobs last month, and that is just enough to call a bright spot. Manufacturing continues to look healthier than it has since Sep'08, however, it has a long ways to go to look as good as it did before the crash Strangely (in my view), markets did not fall much on the news that virtually all of the economic growth for the past couple of months is an illusion.


Inflation has already begun to show its face. Even though the government keeps telling us there is no inflation, as Carla Fried from MoneyWatch pointed out "the ring of the cash register doesn’t square with the government’s reports."

And more is on the way. Cost of energy is driving the prices of almost everything the average citizen buys, from motor fuel, to food, to ammunition. From aluminum cans, electric lights, to steel for cars, it all depends on energy, and its all going up. Virtually every commodity is going up. Everything except wages. And that is why the government's numbers are not showing inflation.

Hat Tip to John Keefe who writes "The Marco View"


I have mentioned before that I never invested in precious metals, and I still don't. (I also mentioned, had I, I would have made some money) On a few occasions I have said I might be persuaded if the price got low enough. There is quite a bit of hype and speculation in the prices. Gold might be a good deal at $1000 an oz, and Silver at $19 an oz. I don't foresee either of those prices showing up, unless it in the middle of a general melt down of some multinational economic system. There are a couple of sub-national economies on the brink of meltdown (Greece, Ireland, California, Illinois), but I don't see them impacting the price of gold enough to make it worthwhile. If China begins dumping its holdings in either gold or T-Bills, that might do it.

Another reason I wouldn't, and the primary reason I haven't invested in Gold or Silver is that those are places to park your money until after a meltdown. I expect to need funds during the meltdown, and as they say, you can't eat gold or silver, and in the middle of a meltdown, you can't trade them for anything worthwhile either. For those who are storing up their treasures on earth, and plan on emerging from the disaster as a tycoon, go ahead and invest in gold.

In the mean time, if your going to put your savings into something tangible, I have mentioned steel (as in tools, or a bicycle) in the past. It also looks like certain energy intensive metals might be useful places to invest. Like copper or aluminum. Be advised though, minimum time for return will be two or more years.

I should note, several of the "economic collapse" web sites(even some that I have quoted) are running advertisements (think "infomercials," for us older folks) for buying gold, other precious metals, or other survivalist stuff. That doesn't mean they are wrong, just one sided. They can be good source or links to good information, but over the long run, they tend to just repeat themselves in various forms.

All of the following headlines showed up on "The Economic Collapse Blog" in about a week's time.

• 10 reasons why the latest unemployment numbers are no reason to cheer
• nothing is stable anymore
• even Donald Trump is warning that an economic collapse is coming
• 12 facts which show that we are in the midst of the worst housing collapse in US history
• warning signs
• 5 reasons why Barack Obama's state of the union address was completely wrong about the economy

None of them are wrong really, but if you ingest too much of this stuff, you will grossly overestimate the immediacy of the threat. Economics is a marathon, not a sprint.

Random items facing Christians

I find myself to be wholly unprepared, this month, to write a cohesive article on any Christian or Theological subject. I will however bore anyone who wants to read further with a couple of random things I have recently run across.

Christianity and Christian Theology continue to be under attack from multiple directions. Virtually any and all so-called television evangelists are heretical hypocrites. However, one recently did have a coming to terms moment on CNN, when he was backed into a corner and forced to take a stand on homosexuality. He admitted he believed the Bible, and that the Bible calls it sin.

I was impressed. I didn't know Joel Osteen had any use for the Bible, other than as a tool to steal money from people who follow his feel good theology. Of course, so called human rights groups (violent extremists wearing sheep's clothing) and so called baptist pastors (preaching a watered down pseudo christian philosophy) attacked him immediately for telling the truth about what the Bible says.


Chic-Fil-A came under attack for providing box lunches to a marriage seminar. Tolerance among liberals? NOT.

A petition against Chick-Fil-A was posted on the human rights website Change.org, urging the company to do more to promote homosexual marriage. Of course, those who put it there even lie about the presence of the petition. After reading an article on "Good As You" stating there was no petition, I looked it up myself and found the petition myself. It was also attacked by college campus gay pride promoters. This is the same reaction as the criminal "pride" groupes that attacked Christian Churches in Califoria last year.

I am concerned that they may back off from their pro Christian, pro Family stance, but for now they seem to be holding firm.

Successful LED Lights

I intended to post this several months ago, as my last post on this subject said: "It will probably be next week before I post about my current assortment of lights, mostly made by Ray-O-Vac"

I have owned quite a few LED lights over the last 5 years. There has been much improvement in the quality of white light LED's over that time. The main improvement has been in the quality of white light. White LED's in 2001 were of such poor quality someone wrote an article titled "White LED's Suck" and they were fairly correct. Today's LED's are much better.

The flashlights around my house in the 90's and early into this century were the ordinary 2 D-Cell kind with fairly good bulbs and were decent quality. However, in the last several years, I have set out to replace each and every one of them with LED lights. And for mainly this reason: The cost of batteries is soon greater than the cost of the flashlight, if you use it very much. Also, while I have never had an LED flashlight bulb burn out or just quit, regular bulbs used to quit on me from time to time in the past.

The best LED replacement I have found for the most common house and car flashlight is the Ray-O-Vac "Brilliant Solutions" variety. These can be had at Wal-Mart, and are fairly inexpensive. Oddly, they are available on the Net for about double the price.

Naming convention for most of the Ray-O-Vac flashlights is fairly straightforwards. If you see 2AA in the name, it takes 2 AA batteries. If you see 3AAA in the name, it takes 3 AAA batteries.

Brilliant Solutions also includes a $1 conventional flashlight that takes 2 AA batteries, and might be useful somewhere you hope to never need a flashlight, but must keep one for safety reasons.

I believe I have written in the past about the headlamp I use at work, and I still think the Ray-O-Vac 3-in-1 LED Headlamp is the best headlamp on the market for under $30 apiece. I don't know if it is still in production, but it is still intermittently available from Amazon for about $13 (but you have to buy them in the 2 pack for $26).

For an extra bright flashlight, I recently bought Ray-O-Vac Sportsman 3W 2AA DC-DC Regulated Flashlight that is rated 80 Lumens. That model may not be available, but similar models are. Expect to pay between $20 and $35 each. They are water and impact resistant, and use a twist bottom switch with push button momentary. I don't particularly like that type of switch, but it is the most trouble free and longest lasting type of switch around.

The 5 LED basic headlamp I used to get on line for about $6.50 is now available at Wal-Mart near the checkout for $5.75 and will probably show up at places like Family Dollar stores soon. This is a very generic headlamp that shows up from time to time and place to place with inconsistent model and UPC numbers.

I waited for some time for Ray-O-Vac to make a caplight that I liked, but Energizer beat them to it. They make a caplight and a headlight that are virtually the same, for around $15. Has two red LED's and three white LED's. Runs on 2 AAA batteries.

Economic Outlook for 2011

Hopefully this will be the longest post I make all year.

Here is a list of subjects I will cover:

• Markets and Jobs
• Gas price forecast extension
• Governments roll in our current economy
• Biggest holders of our national debt
• A dismal future

Markets and Jobs

I heard on the first day of trading this year (3 Jan) that if the markets move upwards by at least 1% on that day, it will be a good year. By the 5th, they were congratulating themselves on how good the payroll numbers would look. Payroll numbers come out on the 7th of this month. I have news for them. The good or bad of a year does not revolve around the markets, but around good jobs for the masses. Payroll numbers, especially manufacturing payrolls are the key.

At first, it looked pretty good. The manufacturing sector expanded on several fronts, and orders for durable goods were up. But remember, the indexes were above the waterline most of 2010, and yet the manufacturing jobs numbers were not so good. I think, to be good, the ISM manufacturing index must be above 55, instead of the 50 we normally associate with improvement. That goes along with the need to add more than 200,000 jobs a month to the economy, and 20,000 must be manufacturing jobs. This month's numbers are just over 100,000 jobs and only 5000 in manufacturing. The manufacturing number is the most sobering.


Gas price forecast extension

The current market forces indicate gas will be over $3.50 in May, and over $4 by Christmas. And my numbers are for the areas of the gas price map that show green.


Governments roll in our current economy

The biggest drags on our economy are renege prices and expansion of government. In the past year, the Obamacare legislation, and the gifts of bailouts to bankers and unions were the biggest government drags. And the many moratoriums on energy production, both before and after the BP spill (and still today) are one of the biggest factors driving up energy prices.

So, currently, the Obama administration is the biggest cause of our economic problems. But it is not even close to being alone as a culprit. We have a fun and games mentality that will snap up anything shiny (I believe it was Dave Ramsey who called it a "culture of bass"), will not defer pleasure and is centered around instant gratification. This is the same mentality that led to the demise of both the Greek and the Roman empires. And we have more of it than they did.

Add to that the idea that government is supposed to be all to everyone (the builders of a perfect law and order society for the republicans, and the santa clause of the democratic party) and it is a recipe for disaster.



Biggest holders of our national debt

Just as a side note, here are the biggest holders of our national (government) debt. The website I got this from only lists about $3T of the reported $14T national debt. I suspect the disconnect may be the $14T is obligations (contracts have been signed) and the $3T is what is already payed out, but I am not certain of this.

Who holds how much of our federal governments debt - in Billions

• Total 2845.8
• Country or entity Oct 2010
• China, Mainland 906.8
• Japan 877.4
• United Kingdom 477.6
• Oil Exporters 213.9
• Brazil 177.6
• Hong Kong 139.2
• Carib Bnkng Ctrs 133.7

Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama.

A dismal future

To make this clear, I don't think we will pull out of this. If we see any prosperity at all again, it will be a short and very hollow economic upswing. The only questions is when and how suddenly will we slide into desolation. The numbers lately (look at the third chart) are looking more and more like the slide is imminent, but I am no expert at this, and it could be months or even years away.


After repeated warnings by Moody's that they might be "stretching" the AAA credit rating of US Treasury bonds, many others around the world broke with Moody's and downgraded our credit rating last Spring. Of course, in my own personal opinion, Moody's also kept many bond ratings too high in the past, becoming part of the problem that led to the recession and bailouts. I once said we could know when the recession was ending by the interest rates on T-Bills going up, but at the time I could not visualize our national debt becoming so large we might pay higher interest rates because investors are unsure if we will slide into such an economic abyss, of unemployment and inflation, that the T-Bills would be nearly worthless.

Entering the End Game

I believe we have entered the "End Game" (reference to Chess Strategy) between God and Satan.

Only time will tell. No man knows the day nor the hour. We have been very near the end game before. In 1982 we were within a hair's breadth of entering the end game, but then God raised up Ronald Reagan, and the timetable was set back 30 years. We approach it again, but this time I believe we have crossed the line, and the elements are in motion, that will bring about the end of the age of the Gentiles. (And the Church Age)

I ran across a good write up on this subject, that may be of interest to any who read my blog to find out what the future holds for us and our nation.

The Revelation Of Jesus Christ….Revealed

Since no two people completely agree on the interpretation of Scripture, I will say right up front that I have a couple of minor disagreements with his interpretation, about halfway through his article. That is it. Minor disagreements on a couple of points. The more two Christians engage in serious, prayerful study of the Scriptures the less disagreement they will have.

The watchmen on the wall are sounding the alarm.

From the midst of Jerusalem! Now blow a trumpet in Tekoa and raise a signal over Beth-haccerem; For evil looks down from the north, and a great destruction.
Jeremiah, Chapter 6

So, what should we be doing about this? Not much other than what we should have been doing, all along. As Luke 12:37 says: "Blessed are those slaves whom the master will find on the alert when he comes ; truly I say to you, that he will gird himself to serve, and have them recline at the table, and will come up and wait on them.

I wrote some time ago about the characteristics of a good Church. Well, that article could become obsolete really soon. Should things take a turn for the worse, it will be time to start looking for a good House Church ministry, as the True Believers move back underground. More on that later, if the Lord is willing.

End of Year Posting

What happened this past year, and what I hope to do, if the Lord is willing, next year.

Blogger has added some new features for static files, similar to "sticky posts" on WordPress. I expect to capitalize on this feature real soon.


In the next year, I don't think my articles will be as long or as in-depth. Nor will I be concerned with having as many links to supporting information.


Combat Effective - around 20 Feb 2010 Combat Effective was taken down by multiple attacks, some of which may have been denial of service, some of which may have exploited flaws in either the software or service provider. It is back up, but due to the busy schedules of the site owner (both his job and his family) it isn't as heavily trafficked as it was two years ago.


I asked God repeatedly throughout 2010 to help me find a way out of the job I am in, and in December, He answered. He told me NO. It seems there is a steady stream of people He has been sending to me for encouragement and direction.


I am still hearing that Christians all around the US, and possibly the world, are very weak in their knowledge of the Bible. We are now deep into the days of Apostasy, with the days of persecution coming at us fast. Just a few days ago, a new law was passed, Christians can now serve in the Military, but only on a "don't ask don't tell" basis. This law is from the same government that dis-invited all Fundamentalist Christians from the National Day of Prayer.

I suspect this is "End Game" (Chess reference, not "the end of the game") for the Church and the "age of the Gentiles" is coming to an end. Not just because of what is happening in the US, but what is happening around the world.

While I haven't looked very hard, I have seen no improvement in the Border Fence all this year. More people on the Border, and better enforcement of employment verification, but no more fence. People on the Border is a make work project, and employment verification will lead to more surveillance society, as mission creep sets in.

I hope to do more with book reviews next year.

The economics lessons of 2007-2008 seem to be forgotten. I thought rising interest rates would signal strengthening economy, but I neglected to forecast the downgrading of US Treasury Bonds (by Moody). Food inflation is just around the corner for the US, and is an ever present reality in some parts of the world.

Energy prices will be going up for the next few years, if there is not another worldwide economic crash. I locked in my electric rate early in November, just in time (before the rest of the world was able to react to the news about energy prices). As for anyone who hasn't done that, now is better than later for getting a contract (if you live in one of the states that allows customers to contract for electricity rates.

I started to do some articles on cars and trucks, but didn't have the time and energy to do it justice last year. I hope to do much more with it in the coming year.

If you haven't begun preparing for disasters, don't delay too long.

As a math fanatic, I can't help but play at being an odds-maker: here are some probabilities for the next year:
Global economic collapse 4% chance.
The Rapture might occur 2% chance.
War of Gog (see Ezekiel 37) 2% chance.
Solar Flare knocking out our power grid 1% chance.
Mass persecution of Christians in the US 1% chance.
Some other massive catastrophe, on a scale bigger than
anything seen by anyone living today 4% chance.

If any of the above occur, the possibility that a combination of more than one of the above will occur is very high. Combined likelihood of something (anything) really really big in the next year is about 7% chance.

Remember: the government isn't willing, and probably not able, to do what is necessary to protect you. They will always be more interested in projects to feather their caps and line their pockets, than to do what is right.

In intend to pay less attention to the Federal Government this next year.

I plan to split Observations and Definitions into two groups and do more, though smaller articles on Technology.

Our Economy at the Brink

Not really, but the potential is there, either for real growth (which we had little of in the past two years), or a real slide into a second dip, next year. On the other hand, we seem to have a knack for choosing the route in between. Payrolls, factory orders and the stock market seem to agree on nothing.

If you ignore the temporary jobs for the Christmas shopping season, there has been a loss of both jobs as a whole and factory jobs for the past several months.

Congress continues to debate whether to raise taxes or not, and I don't think, in the long run, they will go up. But if they do, we will slide into another recessionary dip, possibly lasting a couple of years. If the renew the "Bush era tax cuts," we will continue to drive forward into a better economy. But how much better is anyone's guess. A lot of that has to do with how much of Obamacare can be killed off, and whether of not the carbon tax monster can be killed dead.

Gas prices have begun to rise in December. I believe the era of a price drop each winter is gone. China is now a major price driver in the gas and oil markets. And in all other commodity markets as well. Coal, Copper, Food, Gold, Iron, Silver.

Bernanke thinks it will take years, maybe five years, to recover to a "normal" unemployment rate, and thinks the threat of inflation is overblown. I think he is very much an optimist. My thoughts are much more along the lines of Tom Dennen, who bills himself as a Paranoid Historian.

The dollar continues to weaken, although it has leveled off for the past few days. The government insists there is no inflation, but the price of energy and food have been going up for more than a year. I have some news for the government. Prices going up are a sure sign of inflation. Just because you can juggle the numbers to count out all the factors that go up doesn't mean they go away.

This coming year might be more than interesting.

Encroachment of Liberalism

The encroachment of liberalism can have a subtle, but destructive, influence on a Church. Liberalism breeds greed, envy, strife, and idolatry. I noticed this from time to time among my more "liberal" christian (and even Christian) friends, and now have an example from a news paper.

Recently Mary Hunt of "The everyday cheapskate" column answered a letter from someone about "social obligations" (the two links are the same) that involved people having home based businesses disguised as a "jewelry or candle "party." (The fact that it was "disguised" as a party was not mentioned in the letter, or the answer)

To make things worse, these "friends" were from her Church in a small town. She felt a moral obligation to attend and buy things from these so called friends, and I suspect these "friends" were using their Church as a social network to get her, and others to come buy things from them.

Her advise was well intended, though a little naive. She said if the writer stood her ground based on the fact that she held to a budget, she would be admired, if only in secret.

Let me say, she will not be admired. She will be hated, if only in secret. These so called friends are using and exploiting her, and likely others, for their profit, and would not take kindly to being exposed for what they are doing.

In an almost perfect world, she would make her concerns known to her pastor, and he would provide corrective council to these people. But this world is far from perfect, and the Old Russian Proverb comes to mind: "speak the truth, then leave quickly."

Since this is a small town, if she does anything, she will risk being vilified and otherwise persecuted. But I still think she should tell her pastor about her concerns. If the problem is not quickly corrected, though, she should be looking for another Church.

New Gasoline Blend E15

This is a bit of a stub article, I didn't have time to fully flesh it out and show the conclusion.

Recently, the EPA decided to "allow" the introduction of E15, a 15% ethanol blend, at gas pumps across the US. Of course, allow is a bit of a misnomer, since once it is allowed, it will not be long before it is forced upon us. This decision to bring this product to the market was at the request of "Growth Energy," a coalition of U.S. ethanol supporters, and 54 ethanol manufacturers.

There had been an alcohol blend "wall" that allowed only 10% ethanol alcohol to be added to most fuel, except E85 blend, for use only in "flex fuel" vehicles. There has been a lot of hype and myth surrounding the mostly forced introduction of ethanol into gasoline, but some fairly balanced articles can be found, if one looks.

Of course, the problems are not made any easier to understand by some quasi-technicle web sites running obvious propaganda pieces. There is a fairly good rebuttal to this is found in blog somewhat off the beaten path. Among other things, he makes the point that, while the government is telling automobile owners etanol is perfectly safe, it is telling airplane owners and operators it is dangerous to their engines and fuel systems, and not to use it.

Some good information was published in the Orlando Sentenal.
(I don't have much experiance with the Orlando Sentenal or the Greenfield Reporter, but hope the link will remain good.)

The Google string I used to find most of this is:
gasoline ethanol alcohol problems older cars trucks

When researching these things, one thing to remember is that any recent article mentioning carbon emissions is likely propaganda, since man made global climate change was completely debunked in 2009.

Impact Now - Energy and Economics

There is a tendency among otherwise reasonable people to think things have turned around for our nation, ever since the Obama administration got a "shellacking" at the polls on Nov 2nd.

Some things have changed, some things haven't. Energy is one of those things that has not changed. Supply and demand. And while energy usage demand is just chugging ever upwards, supply of cash via the nation's printing presses just expanded.

I see rumblings of the economy coming back to life ... in China and India. China is buying up commodities, as well as our debt. Especially important next year is Chinese import of coal, copper, and food. Food became important when the Russians lost 20% of their wheat crop this past summer.

With money supply rising, and energy demand rising, I see the value of the dollar decreasing and the price of energy getting a double dose of inflation.

This effect will be almost immediate, and will be felt before next spring. I don't know if this was built into the price of oil when I did my forcast last July, so I don't know (yet) if this will have an impact on that forecast.

The top three uses (not in any particular order) of energy by the average family are (1) their motor vehicle (2) heating and air conditioning and (3) food. These are the area's in which to concentrate efforts to get the most bang for your buck (so to speak).

November financial outlook

Treasury bill interest rates hit an all time low recently, and the Dollar has been at its all time weakest (at least in recent history, as far back as I can remember). This is the result of both the "quantitative easing" (printing of more money), and the anticipation of what that extra money will do.

The US private sector payroll is better than many expected, and better than it has been in many months. 159,000 new jobs. Many gathering around the alters in Washington and Wall-Street are elated. But all is not rosy. The increase is just enough to offset the increases in US population. Manufacturing is not up, but rather, Lost Jobs. And the number of temporary workers is up, possibly due to the approaching greed and gluttony (Christmas) season.


There is some hope, though. Between politicians not wanting to commit partisan suicide, and the Republican takeover of Congress (but not the Senate, unfortunately) many business tax increases will be put on indefinite hold - maybe. Hiring in 2011 will be largely dependent on not raising taxes on businesses.


Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister calls US policy clueless. This is the typical hubris from a continent where people riot on a regular basis over how many free meals they can get from a society that has been bailed out at least six times by the US.

Elsewhere around the world, commodities such as copper and tin, oil, and even food are rising in price at an ever faster rate, but the "numbers are fascinating" crowd still thinks deflation is a problem that is here to stay.

I noticed, as I was channel surfing a couple days ago, that the History Channel was spending a great deal of time on the first of November, exploring ways to "debunk" the Bible, and undermine God's True Word. They showed three shows. First the Gates of Hell, describing the "myth" that Jesus rose from the Dead. Then some date setting in "Apocalypse Island" trying to prove 2012 is "the year." (It might be. Or Not.) Then some more date setting in the "Nostradamus Effect."

One thing that shouldn't have surprised me, but did, was that some preachers or teachers (not exactly sure what title they had) from the United Methodist Church Seminary in Claremont California were helping to undermine God's True Word.

I say that it shouldn't have surprised me, because I have heard talk that the United Methodists have "gone liberal." That is, lost the God given knowledge that the Bible is God's True Word.

So, I went and looked up Claremont Seminary, and sure enough, it didn't take long to find evidence that they have lost their Way. In an article from the Christian Post, I found:

A Southern California seminary affiliated with The United Methodist Church is opening its doors to Muslims and Jews and offering clerical training for those of other Abrahamic faiths, school officials announced Wednesday.

"The world is changing. And so is Claremont," states Claremont School of Theology on its website.

The unconventional move is part of the University Project, the school's effort to promote interreligious cooperation and to teach students to "recognize the legitimacy and integrity of the other religious traditions."

And in an article at Apologetics dot com,
I found:

"Christian ministers, Jewish rabbis and Muslim imams and eventually clerics from other religions will be educated side by side, each in their own traditions but also with classes in common so they learn to work together to address the problems that face humanity today and that can only be solved if religions work together across their boundaries," Campbell, Claremont School of Theology

What is this? It is Apostasy. The "legitimacy and integrity of other religious traditions" is an affront to God, and to teach such is heresy.

And from their own web site, I found:

THE WORLD IS CHANGING. AND SO IS CLAREMONT.

Affiliated with The United Methodist Church, Claremont School of Theology has a long history of educating religious leaders. Founded in 1885, the School embraced an ecumenical vision upon its move to Claremont, California, in 1957. Today, it is making a similar adjustment of vision, to meet the cultural and religious demands of a world in transition.

While maintaining a strong School of Theology to prepare Christian ministers, Claremont is developing other schools to prepare teachers, counselors, scholars and community leaders for the interreligious realities of the 21st Century. We call this plan the University Project.

This is proof from their own mouths, the United Methodist Church is no longer a Christian Church, and is merely teaching Theistic Moralistic Relativism. An affront to God, and an enemy of the Gospel, which is that salvation is through the blood of Jesus and that there is no other salvation.

As Paul the Apostle said in Galatians Chapter 1:

⁶I am amazed that you are so quickly deserting Him who called you by the grace of Christ, for a different gospel;

⁷which is really not another; only there are some who are disturbing you and want to distort the gospel of Christ.

⁸But even if we, or an angel from heaven, should preach to you a gospel contrary to what we have preached to you, he is to be accursed!

⁹As we have said before, so I say again now, if any man is preaching to you a gospel contrary to what you received, he is to be accursed!

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