Staying out of the Next Pandemic

I ran across an article discussing how a lab, working with genetically modified viruses could work to contain a pandemic if the virus escaped the lag. They have some interesting ideas and this one caught my eye.

We find that the containment depends on the timely implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and contact tracing and it may be effective (>90% probability per event) only for pathogens with moderate transmissibility (reproductive number no larger than R0 = 1.5). Containment depends on population density and structure as well, with a probability of giving rise to a global event that is three to five times lower in rural areas. 

Conclusions 

Results suggest that controllability of escape events is not guaranteed and, given the rapid increase of biosafety laboratories worldwide, this poses a serious threat to human health. Our findings may be relevant to policy makers when designing adequate preparedness plans and may have important implications for determining the location of new biosafety laboratories worldwide.

Food for thought.

Coming Famines and Epidemics

In the past, everyone worried about how much oil or other forms of energy (primarily fossil fuels) would be available from the earth.  This is no longer a worry, but there is the question of whether the governments of the earth will allow us to have it.  The technology and known resources exist to sustain us for at least 40 years.  And at a pretty reasonable cost (not like we remember it, but not bad). 

The real problem will be food.

The world population has just hit the 7 billion person mark, up from 6 billion twelve years ago. The world adds 75 million each year.  Back around twelve years ago, someone asked me how many people I thought  the world could support, and I told them about 1 or 2 billion.  They said I was wrong, as the world already had 6 billion.  I just smiled at them and walked away.  I don't think they got it.  Our days were numbered, even then.  At this point, I think maybe 3 billion, but no where near 7 billion. Anyone remember "Soylant Green"?  Now would be a good time to take another look at that movie.  It isn't far off.


Currently there is plenty of food, and only scattered reports of famine along a line from Congo to Indonesia.  This could be deceptive, as there isn't much food in the pipeline and none in any kind of stockpile or warehousing system.   Some of the stuff I have studied says that when the stock levels (most of which is at distribution points or on trucks) drops below a critical point, where people will pay almost any price for it, the price spikes up rapidly.  It isn't a smooth curve, and before it gets critical, there is very little movement in price. (For more information, there is a link in the "link farm section of this blog.)



Another thing about higher population density is that epidemics will spread much more readily through densely populated areas.  This has happened before, with the loss of more than 25% of the world population in less than a century.  And that was without jet airplanes.  Today it could happen in just a couple years.

In the near future I hope to discuss the consequences and complications of high population densities across the planet, which I think will eventually culminate in the third and Fourth Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

The recent strain of influenza made its way through our population at a fairly high rate seems to be dying out. It spread at major epidemic levels that would have had schools closing during the 2009 pandemic. This level of spread normally goes on for a few weeks, until the number of easily infected people begins to be reduced.  Once there are fewer easy hosts, the epidemic dies out quickly.

In addition, there seems to be some evidence that there are more people, than in the past, who just don't react to the shots by building the expected level of immune response.  This is a disturbing trend, meaning that either the current vaccines are flawed, or like antibiotics, the end of the vaccine age is upon us. 

I wrote about the epidemic of 2009, as it spread into the US.  Within days and lasting for a few weeks there was panic and people would beg, borrow and steal to get the vaccine.  Two weeks later, as the news cycle progressed and people weren't dying in the streets, the panic turned almost instantly into complacency, and they couldn't even give the vaccine away.  The epidemic went on for a few more weeks after that, and even returned the following school year, but without the panic.  Of course, part of the problem was that media whipped the people into a panic.  Another part of the problem was that politicians were using the anxiety for their own political purposes.  (Don't believe in each other, or in God.   Believe in big government.)

One of the things that I said during that pandemic still is true:
There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.

First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands every time you come into your house from any public place. 

Good links for background.
Current info for this article found here:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/search/label/Influenza

Then my older blog entries.
The May 4 2009 and October 25 2009 articles are especially good.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/search/label/Epidemic

The May 4th artical links to this through the words "pandemic panic"
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/05/pandemic-come-as-you-are-dumb-as-you-are.html

Just some updates

Just some updates on some of the things I have written about over the past few months.

The Famine I wrote about a couple of months ago will not be as severe as I first thought. There will likely be shortages, but instead of the price of food doubling, this time it is only expected to rise by about 15%.

Some tidbits as to why it isn't as bad as I thought it would be:
Corn crop not hurt as bad as expected, but will be late.
Wheat harvests also not hurt as bad as I thought.

But the biggest factor is waste. Apparently, both the US and Europe still waste a good bit more food than I thought. How much, I don't know. I am still researching that (a lot of junk to sift through on the Net). But the bottom line is that the crop loss can be easily offset, this time by reducing the waste in our systems. As these things go in cycles we should have a few more years (or not, since these things cannot really be predicted) before a really bad famine sets in.

Obvious by now, this isn't the big famine mentioned in Revelation, but I will write more on both the coming famines and the 4 Horsemen of Revelation later.

Closely related to famine is epidemic. There is a strain of Bird Flu (in India) that is beginning a breakout, but it is still unclear if it presents a pandemic threat. Remember, the time to prepare is before things like this hit the media and panic ensues. As a related note, Polio is making a comeback. The majority of the US is vaccinated, but there could easily be a spread into small segments of our population, which would cause a panic. Keep your own vaccines up to date and there should be no problems. (And that goes for your family and friends) And lastly, MRSA strains are showing up that are resistant to antibacterial ointments. These are the ones found in the typical family medicine cabinet. Time to look into old time (18th century) remedies.


On a completely different note, as I have been listening to the expository recordings made by Pastor Chuck Smith covering the whole Bible, I have realized they were done over a period of about 20 years. Makes sense. He did something like 232 of them, and no more than one per week.

Distant Rumblings of Pandemic

A recent article in a local newspaper alerted me to the rumblings of a future pandemic that would make the swine flu seem like a walk in the park.

The bacteria are equipped with a gene that enables them to produce an enzyme that disables antibiotics. The enzyme is called Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenamase, or KPC. It disables carbapenam antibiotics, last-ditch treatments for infections that don't respond to other drugs.

"We've lost our drug of last resort," Fishman says.

Doctors say the bacteria are more worrisome than another well-known superbug, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), because more drugs are available to treat MRSA, Fishman says. "When MRSA started to develop 15 years ago, the industry started producing antibiotics now coming onto the market," he says. "We're in the same position with KPCs as we were with staph aureus 15 years ago, except that the pharmaceutical industry isn't rushing to produce new drugs."

These strains of bacteria have been around for about a decade. Make no mistake though. The only way for these bacteria to have developed a resistance to this class of drugs is for them to have survived treatment by this class of drugs. Much like what I observed with Cipro, here in the US, after the attacks using Anthrax sent through the mail. Once the public learned about this new antibiotic, uncontrolled use of it soon followed.

There is no mechanism in medicine or government to control the use of new antibiotics. There used to be, but I think it has long since been abandoned, a victim of unlearned people screaming about class warfare and doing the work of the evil men who have been trying to destroy our civilization for the past 70 or so years. Now, because of the entrenched evil in our government, no program will succeed at keeping new drugs from being abused.

On a grander scale, this was forecast in Christan Prophesy about 1980 years ago.

Prepare - While there is no epidemic

If you look at the six articles I wrote last year on the subject of Epidemic, I first introduced Swine Flu, with the subtitle of "don't panic, but take precautions." Within a couple of days I followed that article with another, since the nation was already in a panic: even closing schools where no clear cases had been diagnosed.

In less than a week, panic and stupidity had gripped the nation. Some were closing every public event. Others were just looking for someone to blame.


One of the best quotes of the whole season was:

When a pandemic hits, you deal with it using the resources you've got. Like an unexpected invasion, it's a "come as you are" event. The trick is to foresee the pandemic and to build up the personnel, equipment, and organization to stop it.

But if your response to the threat of pandemic is to be stupidly sanctimonious, all your planning will be in vain.

So, two lessons can be learned already. One is to plan ahead, realizing an epidemic or pandemic is (always) likely to happen not many years, or even months in the future. The other is to deal with it in a level headed and even handed way.

Of course, for the public, and even more so, the politicians, this is not going to be the case. And especially if the current crop of politicians is still in office. As their forefathers, Saul Alinsky and Rahm Emanuel point out, they will never let a good crisis go to waste.

As I somewhat point out in my forth article both the public, and the government have two modes of operation: complacency and panic (hat tip to former energy secretary, James Schlesinger). My forth article was written while the pandemic was still going on - but had been overshadowed by political maneuvering in congress and was forgotten. While my forth article is a good read, I was discussing things the nation needed to do, and as I have pointed out, that is hopeless.

We need, as individuals, to respond to our own circumstances. At the end of my first two articles, I mentioned measures individuals can take. They still apply. And they apply before the first news of an epidemic. Those first four articles were written in a period of less than three weeks after the outbreak hit the news.

The government declared the swine flu an official emergency a few months later. The government had ramped up the machinery and created a vaccine. People, at first, lined up around the block and even resorted to crime to get the vaccine. Then it was forgotten again. Some of the vaccine even expired and was thrown out like garbage.

The time to prepare is now. Slowly and methodically. If a major epidemic were to hit unexpectedly, it will likely shut down our transportation system. Bare supermarket shelves will happen in just a few days. My first couple of articles mentioned measures to take, and they still apply.

Well, it is officially a swine flu emergency

Well, ths swine flu is now a declared pandemic, and even President Obama has gotten in on the act by declareing it a national emergency. I say this is an act because the H1N1 is still considered likely to do less damage than its seasonal counterparts. This is like calling a national emergency for a routine severe thunderstorm here in Texas. And if he really wanted to make a difference, where was he on this subject last May, when he could have made a difference?

In the mean time, the shortage of Children's Tamiflu, and this is not a production problem, since there is more than enough of the drug available. It is a problem with finding people willing to mix it into the right dose for children. Something any pharmacist can do. Of course this may change, as projections are for the epidemic to outstrip availability of the drug withing a couple of months.

Of course, all of this is made a little harder by those spreading rumors about the safety of the vaccine. I say a little harder, cause with not enough vaccine to go around, my thought is that you expend the vaccine on those willing to take it and ignore the nay sayers. Let the Darwin Effect take care of them. Let me be clear on my stand. The vaccine is relatively safe. No drug or vaccine is completely safe, but in this case, the risk associated with not getting the vaccine is much greater.

Swine Flu is Back

With the start of the school year, the flu epidemic has renewed itself. Or epidemics. It seems there is more than one strain going around this year. And the government will have the vaccines out after the majority of the threat is passed.

At least the schools seem to be less panicky. Now they are sending individual students home instead of closing schools. There has to be a point, though, at which the school gets closed. Some studies I have read indicate that when 1% of the students have been infected, it is time to close the schools. I haven't seen any plans like that, this time.

The bottom line is: we must depend on ourselves.
What I have said about this in the past still stands.
April 29 swine-flu
May 1 swine-flu-2
May 4 swine-flu-3-panic-and-stupidity
May 15 swine-flu-from-panic-to-forgotten

Swine Flu - From Panic to Forgotten

Well, the panic seems to be over for now. But now, is swine flu forgotten? That isn't much better. There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.

First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands any time you come into your house from any public place.

As for society, we need to develop clear guidelines. This time around we closed schools where there was no outbreak, and every state and county had a different standard for what would be released about cases in their area. I would recommend that schools close after the first confirmed case, or after 1% of the school comes down with suspected cases. Of course, there will be people who think the action is too slow, but we have to be practical.

As for information dissemination, I would say that we should publish any county where a case has been found, and the school district if they attend a school. Maybe we need some standard for telling how many cases are confirmed or suspected, but I am not sure what that standard should be.

And we need to develop clear guidelines about the emergency issuing, safeguarding, and tracking of medicines. Especially antibiotics and antivirals.

Despite the lack of attention it is getting since everybody got interested in Nancy Pelosi's denial of knowing about our interragation techniques, let's not completely forget about this pandemic, especially since it IS still going on.
.

Swine Flu 3 panic and stupidity

One week after the swine flu burst onto the public scene, the public seems to be in full blown panic mode. I just saw on the news that school closings in TX are double the known cases of the virus, meaning that most of the schools closed have not experianced an outbreak. Public events and entire sports venues canceled. (OK, I heard that last cancelation got nixed)

There may be some signs that the panic is slowing, but around the corner is a whole new outbreak to panic about. Again, closing schools, canceling events or otherwise radically changing your behaviour before the first case in your area is panic. And the next panic, already underway, about the new strain of flu, already found in Canada, may severly damage and entire segment of the economy. One more time: you can't get this from eating pork (unless you are eating a live pig - and then I think the pig would likely bite you back) .

Here is a good resource for information on this flu pandemic. One of the articles about the pandemic panic says it well:

"When a pandemic hits, you deal with it using the resources you've got. Like an unexpected invasion, it's a "come as you are" event. The trick is to foresee the pandemic and to build up the personnel, equipment, and organization to stop it.

But if your response to the threat of pandemic is to be stupidly sanctimonious, all your planning will be in vain."

Good wording. Overall though, on a personal level, what the government or public at large does will have little effect on whether you get the flu or not (though it may delay you getting it for some weeks). Your own behaviour will be the biggest factor in whether you get it, that and total random chance. Using good sence, like washing hands and keeping your kitchen area clean, will go a long way. Other than that, your best bet is to be prepared in case it does come to your house.

Swine Flu 2

What a difference 2 days makes. Now we have panic all across the US about an epidemic that will likely not be much worse than the seasonal flu that comes around every year.

I warned against panic three times in my previous article, but I would give President Obama a C- for his handling of this issue, since I have not heard him warn against panic.

Let me be clear. The closing of schools where there have not yet been any cases, and canceling of public events where there is not already large numbers of cases is panic, and is irrational. What is the goal of closing public schools that have not yet seen cases of the flu? They will be behind in their work and have clean and steril desks for when the flu does show up. The flu will have the best of all environments to operate in, since it will not have to compete with the normal flora and everyone will be behind in their work, and so will not dare take another day off, untill the symptoms are unmistakable and they have passed it on to several others.

I made the statement that everyone should have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap in case there is panic buying. Don't go overboard, as some people did in previous crises. I found an interesting article about a panic in Oct 62 that could shed some light on that. Again, don't panic.

Swine Flu

Well, an epidemic of swine flue in Mexico is all set to take off in a pandemic, with massive consequenses here in the US. Should we panic? No, of course not, but some precautions are in order. The epidemic will likely be under way, in a big way, before the end of May. The government will likely be ready for it in September. So, the real answer in handling this emergency (like any other emergency) is with the indevidual citizens.

First a couple of MainStreamMedia articles discussing this.
General discussion on what the government is doing.
OK, OK, it is really a campaign ad for Obama,
I guess the author really really likes him.
An article, like what I always say: Don't Panic
And an article showing preparedness in government is lacking

The fist thing to understand about this virus is that you can't get it from eating pork. Unless you are eating a live pig. The virus mainly travels by skin contact, like any other flu virus. While face masks may provide some protection, they are not your best line of defense.

Your best line of defense is to wash you hands, often. Especially every time you walk through the door into your own home from any public place.

And since it is always possible that the local supermarket stocker will get the flu or panic buying will empty the shelves, have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap on hand during this crises.