A lot has been happening the past few days.
Most of the people reading this will be aware of the Earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the South Pacific. As I was watching the news coverage on Fox News, I was appalled at the ignorance of those reporting. Many referring to Mother Nature, and none giving credit to God. Many questions about earthquakes and tsunamis that should have been known by those reporting on it. I mean come on folks, pick up an encyclopedia and read up on the phenomenon before you go on the air. And one cameraman and reporter, covering the story seemed to have more interest in video shots of the reporter's shirt than anything else.
I was quite surprised to hear that even as the tsunami came to shore on Hawaii, that they couldn't say when it would actually arrive and did not yet (12 hours after the quake) know how many waves there would be. I would have thought there would be sensors about 100 miles out from the shore line, announcing the arrival, and there are certainly many sensors throughout the Pacific to count how many waves occurred.
On a more local front, Combat Effective was attacked and effectively shut down for now. Rebuilding will take a while, but the web site is not the owners highest priority, so it may be down for weeks. I guess we should take that as meaning we were on the right track, and became a threat to America's enemies.
In the mean time, I intend to get this blog back on track, after neglecting it for the past three weeks, and will begin tracking the approach of the elections this fall.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Big News Nobody Saw
The biggest news story of January was missed by almost everyone.
China made an unexpected move to tighten credit, by increasing the reserves maintained by banks. These reserves act as ballast, to keep the economies upright and reduce the bouncing up and down that otherwise would occur in the credit markets. Lack of these reserves is one of the things that led to the giant bubble economy of a few years ago. (Actually, it was and is bubbles upon bubbles, but that is a story for a different day.)
Here is an excerpt from that BIG STORY that ran on 13 Jan:
News also found here
world’s largest lender by market value falls
and here
"Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days,
while copper and oil declined after
China raised the amount banks have to hold in reserve."
Two weeks later "Asian stocks snapped their longest losing streak since 2004, European shares and U.S. index futures rallied and the yen fell after Federal Reserve policy makers said America’s economy is in a recovery,"
But this is just an example, repeated every month for the past year, of talk of good times and the markets will rally. Soon after, they proceeded lower again, as skittishness over jobs reports (released about a week into every month) drained enthusiasm.
And just how are we doing on jobs?
The news had a good, but fake number right up front. So thin even the mainstream media picked up on the underlying bad news. The unemployment rate dropped, but the economy is still shedding jobs. People have been out of work so long they have dropped off the back end of the safety net and are no longer counted as unemployed. The real unemployment rate is still near 18%. And while we need to be adding 200,000 jobs a month just to maintain our current state of employment, this month they "adjusted" so many numbers from so many months that it makes me wonder how many jobs we really are losing.
One report said "The government’s survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labor force rose. The gain brought the participation rate, or the share of the population in the labor force, up to 64.7 percent in January from 64.6 percent." There were other reports showing we had lost workers. It is getting hard to know what to believe.
But there is a small kernel of very, very good news hidden in all of this.
(Feb 5) Factory payrolls increased 11,000 in January, the biggest gain since April 2006, after falling 23,000 in the prior month.
And I don't know where this next article gets its history. The manufacturing index has been above water for the past 3 months, but manufacturing jobs continued to shrink until this month. The article says:
"Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been a driver of the recovery and is projected to continue to expand. The strength has yet to translate into more factory jobs. "
But overall, this expansion in manufacturing is one of two good bits of news. The drop in oil prices, and a drop in the price of fuel at the pump, is partially attributable to the sudden contraction in credit in China, and that too will fuel increases in U.S. manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing tends to be very energy intensive, so it will help us more than it will help Europe, which is already being hamstrung by a "Cap and Tax" system that impedes it from properly utilizing vast amounts of energy for its industry.
On the government front, we seem to have dodged the double barreled bullet of Socialist Medicine under the Obamacare label, and the "Cap and Tax" economy killer. Both are at least comatose, if not dead. This is fortunate, as I forecast back on the 29th of July, that the two of them would be the end of us.
China made an unexpected move to tighten credit, by increasing the reserves maintained by banks. These reserves act as ballast, to keep the economies upright and reduce the bouncing up and down that otherwise would occur in the credit markets. Lack of these reserves is one of the things that led to the giant bubble economy of a few years ago. (Actually, it was and is bubbles upon bubbles, but that is a story for a different day.)
Here is an excerpt from that BIG STORY that ran on 13 Jan:
The People’s Bank of China yesterday raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves by 50 basis points starting Jan.The repercussions from that move caused the markets to move lower over the next several days, coinciding with President Obama's speech about taxing the banks. Thus he got the blame for the markets tanking, and for once he wasn't the guilty party.
18. Economists hadn’t anticipated the move until at least April, the median of 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed last week.
Policy makers may follow up by raising their benchmark rate in coming months, rather than waiting until the second half of the year as most economists in the survey had projected. By moving ahead of the [U.S.] Federal Reserve, which plans to keep rates near zero for an “extended” period, pressure will rise to allow the yuan to appreciate for the first time since mid-2008.
News also found here
world’s largest lender by market value falls
and here
"Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days,
while copper and oil declined after
China raised the amount banks have to hold in reserve."
Two weeks later "Asian stocks snapped their longest losing streak since 2004, European shares and U.S. index futures rallied and the yen fell after Federal Reserve policy makers said America’s economy is in a recovery,"
But this is just an example, repeated every month for the past year, of talk of good times and the markets will rally. Soon after, they proceeded lower again, as skittishness over jobs reports (released about a week into every month) drained enthusiasm.
And just how are we doing on jobs?
The news had a good, but fake number right up front. So thin even the mainstream media picked up on the underlying bad news. The unemployment rate dropped, but the economy is still shedding jobs. People have been out of work so long they have dropped off the back end of the safety net and are no longer counted as unemployed. The real unemployment rate is still near 18%. And while we need to be adding 200,000 jobs a month just to maintain our current state of employment, this month they "adjusted" so many numbers from so many months that it makes me wonder how many jobs we really are losing.
One report said "The government’s survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labor force rose. The gain brought the participation rate, or the share of the population in the labor force, up to 64.7 percent in January from 64.6 percent." There were other reports showing we had lost workers. It is getting hard to know what to believe.
But there is a small kernel of very, very good news hidden in all of this.
(Feb 5) Factory payrolls increased 11,000 in January, the biggest gain since April 2006, after falling 23,000 in the prior month.
And I don't know where this next article gets its history. The manufacturing index has been above water for the past 3 months, but manufacturing jobs continued to shrink until this month. The article says:
"Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been a driver of the recovery and is projected to continue to expand. The strength has yet to translate into more factory jobs. "
But overall, this expansion in manufacturing is one of two good bits of news. The drop in oil prices, and a drop in the price of fuel at the pump, is partially attributable to the sudden contraction in credit in China, and that too will fuel increases in U.S. manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing tends to be very energy intensive, so it will help us more than it will help Europe, which is already being hamstrung by a "Cap and Tax" system that impedes it from properly utilizing vast amounts of energy for its industry.
On the government front, we seem to have dodged the double barreled bullet of Socialist Medicine under the Obamacare label, and the "Cap and Tax" economy killer. Both are at least comatose, if not dead. This is fortunate, as I forecast back on the 29th of July, that the two of them would be the end of us.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Why study the Bible
There are several reasons Christians (and many others) should study the Bible. First and foremost for Christians is to provide resistance to the many heretics that rise into public view, mostly on Television. It is important for Christians to be able to discern real and unreal Christian leadership.
This important skill has been known (but not well used) since the days of the Puratins. The first public education bill passed in the colonies was the "Old Deluder Satan Act"
which said, in part:
Don't be discouraged if the above sentence is hard to read, (in addition to being in "old English") you can jump from "unknown tongue" to the simicolon after "deceivers" when reading to get the majority of the meaning. The remainder is parenthetical.
Note also: Tongues mean languages, both spoken and written. The unknown tongue refers to the Catholics keeping the Bible in Latin so that people could not read it for themselves.
In addition to Biblical Prophesies being fulfilled in Europe and the Middle East (as well as maybe here), we have the threat of many in our own Republican Party attempting to hijack the Scriptures for their own purposes of greed and dishonor. And the Pseudo Christian governments in Europe, South and Central America have been so totally corrupted (except maybe some in the British Isles) that they are no longer of any use at all to our cause.
And what is our cause? Proclaiming the Glory of God, and the Good News of Salvation through Grace in Jesus Christ.
This important skill has been known (but not well used) since the days of the Puratins. The first public education bill passed in the colonies was the "Old Deluder Satan Act"
which said, in part:
It being one chief project of that old deluder, Satan, to keep men form the knowlege of the Scriptures, as in former times keeping them in an unknown tongue, so in these later times by perswading from the use of tongues, that so at least the true sense and meaning of the Originall might be clowded by false glosses of Saint-seeming deceivers; and that Learning may not be buried in the graves of our fore-fathers in Church and Commonwealth, the Lord assisting our indeavers: it is therefore ordered by this Court and Authoritie therof;
Don't be discouraged if the above sentence is hard to read, (in addition to being in "old English") you can jump from "unknown tongue" to the simicolon after "deceivers" when reading to get the majority of the meaning. The remainder is parenthetical.
Note also: Tongues mean languages, both spoken and written. The unknown tongue refers to the Catholics keeping the Bible in Latin so that people could not read it for themselves.
In addition to Biblical Prophesies being fulfilled in Europe and the Middle East (as well as maybe here), we have the threat of many in our own Republican Party attempting to hijack the Scriptures for their own purposes of greed and dishonor. And the Pseudo Christian governments in Europe, South and Central America have been so totally corrupted (except maybe some in the British Isles) that they are no longer of any use at all to our cause.
And what is our cause? Proclaiming the Glory of God, and the Good News of Salvation through Grace in Jesus Christ.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Reading Amazon Book Reviews
It has come to my attention (by way of talk radio) that certain factions are working in a concerted effort to poison the reviewer remarks for some books on Amazon. Specifically, there appears to be coordinated efforts by Atheists and Socialists to leave disparaging comments and mark other comments as "not helpful." And specifically these remarks are being made towards books by Christians and conservatives writing about America. I don't know how much of this is going on (and honestly, I see only sporatic evidence of it), but I thought I would share my method of avoiding such nonsense. My technique was originally designed to avoid concieted reviews by the friends and relatives of the author, and general nay-sayers who just don't like what they are reading.
This is primarily useful for books (or products) with lots and lots of reviews. On those with only a couple of reviews, I just read all of them. On products with enough reviews to make reading all of them impractical, I just read the 4-star reviews. Or just the three star reviews. Whichever seems to be a reasonable number to read. This avoids those who wrote a review but forgot to mark how many stars. Avoids the ones that are just glowing reviews with no substance. And avoids the vandals that are just there to run the product down.
The real purpose of reading reviews is to find out if the book or product is a good match for the customer, not really to find out if it is a good match for the world. Sometimes, if I am particularly taken by a reviewer, I might even click on their name and see what else they reviewed. This isn't useful for hunting donw the Atheists or other vandals, however, as they are likely to be cowards that will create mulitple personalities to tear down Christian writings.
There are also comments left on the reviews, but I don't find them useful for book reviews, as they just tend to be argumentative. For product reviews, however, they can sometimes clear up misconceptions about the product or company.
This is primarily useful for books (or products) with lots and lots of reviews. On those with only a couple of reviews, I just read all of them. On products with enough reviews to make reading all of them impractical, I just read the 4-star reviews. Or just the three star reviews. Whichever seems to be a reasonable number to read. This avoids those who wrote a review but forgot to mark how many stars. Avoids the ones that are just glowing reviews with no substance. And avoids the vandals that are just there to run the product down.
The real purpose of reading reviews is to find out if the book or product is a good match for the customer, not really to find out if it is a good match for the world. Sometimes, if I am particularly taken by a reviewer, I might even click on their name and see what else they reviewed. This isn't useful for hunting donw the Atheists or other vandals, however, as they are likely to be cowards that will create mulitple personalities to tear down Christian writings.
There are also comments left on the reviews, but I don't find them useful for book reviews, as they just tend to be argumentative. For product reviews, however, they can sometimes clear up misconceptions about the product or company.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Persecution in America and Allies
For some time, I didn't know what to begin making of this. I don't think I will create a label, but I will begin a regular (monthly?) series of articles on the Persecution of Christians in North America, and in some of the (formerly) christian countries of Europe.
It should not surprise us that this is happening. Jesus said that if we follow him, we should expect persecution. In fact, we can draw a conclusion from some of the things He said, that if we are not experiencing persecution, we might only be fooling ourselves about our salvation. Most christians are not experiencing persecution, because they are practicing Christianity Lite, and will be surprised when meeting Jesus in the afterlife, at what He really expected of them. And that they are surprised should not be any surprise. How can they follow Jesus, if they have no idea what the Bible says about following Jesus? (Thus, my quest, to get Christians to study the Bible.)
I think the first story, and currently the most visible to come to mind is Brit Hume's comment about Tiger Woods needing Jesus Christ. This set off a firestorm among the secularist, socialist, and even some of "Christianity Lite" circles.
The first to speak out against Brit Hume were "journalists" of the drive by media. But this can be expected of them, as the world, and especially the Secular Humanist (Socialist) religion of the drive by media is offended and threatened by hearing The Truth and The Gospel. They are not offended by hearing about Buddhism (or Hinduism, or Atheism, or Islam) because it is NOT The Truth, and does not convict them.
Example Links:
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann twice claimed that FNC contributor and former anchor Brit Hume’s public recommendation that Tiger Woods convert to Christianity to help solve his personal problems amounted to trying to "threaten" Woods
Olbermann also plugged the segment before a commercial break: "Brit Hume has tried to force Tiger Woods into becoming a Christian again. - That in a moment."
Brit Hume: 'Jesus Christ' the 'Most Controversial Two Words You Can Ever Utter in the Public Square'
(CNSNews.com) – Brit Hume said he was “not surprised” by the media backlash over his remarks to Tiger Woods on “Fox News Sunday” this week. There is a “double-standard” when it comes to speaking publicly about Christianity versus other religions, he said.
Hume, a Fox News analyst, told CNSNews.com: “There is a double standard. If I had said, for example, that what Tiger Woods needed to do was become more deeply engaged in his Buddhist faith or to adopt the ideas of Hinduism, which I think would be of great spiritual value to him, I doubt anybody would have said anything.”
And an example of that double standard,
even from some Christian Lite sources:
Religion on Fox: News or evangelism?
(Washington Post quotes a "Baptist" columnist)
The picture on the television screen and the audio of reporter Brit Hume's words struck me as contradictory. Just below the image of the reporter's face, the insignia "Fox News" appeared in three different places.
Among our "allies," persecution has begun in earnest. While they are not yet being dragged out into the streets or thrown into jail in England, their jobs are at risk:
Olive Jones, a former teacher who gave at-home math lessons to children too weak or ill to attend school, was told after she offered to pray for the child that the family were nonbelievers. The student's mother complained to the Oak Hill Short Stay School and Tuition Service in Nailsea, North Somerset. Jones' proposition was regarded as "bullying," and she ultimately lost her job.
I wrote about this subject last spring,
and mentioned about Canada the year before.
.
It should not surprise us that this is happening. Jesus said that if we follow him, we should expect persecution. In fact, we can draw a conclusion from some of the things He said, that if we are not experiencing persecution, we might only be fooling ourselves about our salvation. Most christians are not experiencing persecution, because they are practicing Christianity Lite, and will be surprised when meeting Jesus in the afterlife, at what He really expected of them. And that they are surprised should not be any surprise. How can they follow Jesus, if they have no idea what the Bible says about following Jesus? (Thus, my quest, to get Christians to study the Bible.)
I think the first story, and currently the most visible to come to mind is Brit Hume's comment about Tiger Woods needing Jesus Christ. This set off a firestorm among the secularist, socialist, and even some of "Christianity Lite" circles.
The first to speak out against Brit Hume were "journalists" of the drive by media. But this can be expected of them, as the world, and especially the Secular Humanist (Socialist) religion of the drive by media is offended and threatened by hearing The Truth and The Gospel. They are not offended by hearing about Buddhism (or Hinduism, or Atheism, or Islam) because it is NOT The Truth, and does not convict them.
Example Links:
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann twice claimed that FNC contributor and former anchor Brit Hume’s public recommendation that Tiger Woods convert to Christianity to help solve his personal problems amounted to trying to "threaten" Woods
Olbermann also plugged the segment before a commercial break: "Brit Hume has tried to force Tiger Woods into becoming a Christian again. - That in a moment."
Brit Hume: 'Jesus Christ' the 'Most Controversial Two Words You Can Ever Utter in the Public Square'
(CNSNews.com) – Brit Hume said he was “not surprised” by the media backlash over his remarks to Tiger Woods on “Fox News Sunday” this week. There is a “double-standard” when it comes to speaking publicly about Christianity versus other religions, he said.
Hume, a Fox News analyst, told CNSNews.com: “There is a double standard. If I had said, for example, that what Tiger Woods needed to do was become more deeply engaged in his Buddhist faith or to adopt the ideas of Hinduism, which I think would be of great spiritual value to him, I doubt anybody would have said anything.”
And an example of that double standard,
even from some Christian Lite sources:
Religion on Fox: News or evangelism?
(Washington Post quotes a "Baptist" columnist)
The picture on the television screen and the audio of reporter Brit Hume's words struck me as contradictory. Just below the image of the reporter's face, the insignia "Fox News" appeared in three different places.
Among our "allies," persecution has begun in earnest. While they are not yet being dragged out into the streets or thrown into jail in England, their jobs are at risk:
Olive Jones, a former teacher who gave at-home math lessons to children too weak or ill to attend school, was told after she offered to pray for the child that the family were nonbelievers. The student's mother complained to the Oak Hill Short Stay School and Tuition Service in Nailsea, North Somerset. Jones' proposition was regarded as "bullying," and she ultimately lost her job.
I wrote about this subject last spring,
and mentioned about Canada the year before.
.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Border Fence - the cause is right
With this being an election year, the status of the border fence (and other border security issues) should be one of the more visible issues presented to our candidates. Especially those going to Washington. And let's not forget, every single Representative (along with a third of the Senate and quite a few Governors) is up for re-election (or replacement).
Those who wish to destroy us have managed to promote a myth so far and wide that even a lot of otherwise reasonable and rational people have come to believe it. That a fence does not work, because it can be breached or bypassed. Look at any auto salvage or auto repair business and what do you see? A fence. Look at any military installation and what do you see? A fence. There is also a similar myth that a fence only keeps us in. Where does this come from? Law abiding people don't sneak across a border or jump the fence. They come and go through the gate. This, of course comes from our enemies, and is aimed at those who have not given this much thought.
And there is some proof that the fence, only about 20% (or less) complete, is already providing some protection. And, of course, it is the same evidence that our enemies would point to, trying to persuade us to stop defending ourselves. As an example:
Incomplete Border Tunnel Found In San Diego (Dec 2009)
But, it is not like people have completely forgotten the subject. A recent (Nov 2009) Washington Post Poll showed 61 Percent of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents Say GOP Puts ‘Too Little’ Emphasis on Illegal Immigration, (The poll asked respondents their opinion about the degree of emphasis the Republican Party puts on eight issues: gun rights, same-sex marriage, abortion, federal spending, taxes, the environment, illegal immigration, and the economy and jobs.)
Meanwhile, the news page for the Border Patrol is choked with trivial stuff, causing articles to scroll off of the page quickly. However, a periodic update link was helpful.
I discovered this article (5 Jan 2010), showing that attention given the border provides a good return on investment, among the many listed. Excerpt:
Just a note, on that last line: "other nationals."
Smugglers? or Terrorists?
The article doesn't say.
But without the fence, absolutely no one would know.
We must remain steadfast.
.
Those who wish to destroy us have managed to promote a myth so far and wide that even a lot of otherwise reasonable and rational people have come to believe it. That a fence does not work, because it can be breached or bypassed. Look at any auto salvage or auto repair business and what do you see? A fence. Look at any military installation and what do you see? A fence. There is also a similar myth that a fence only keeps us in. Where does this come from? Law abiding people don't sneak across a border or jump the fence. They come and go through the gate. This, of course comes from our enemies, and is aimed at those who have not given this much thought.
And there is some proof that the fence, only about 20% (or less) complete, is already providing some protection. And, of course, it is the same evidence that our enemies would point to, trying to persuade us to stop defending ourselves. As an example:
Incomplete Border Tunnel Found In San Diego (Dec 2009)
DEA said Mexican authorities discovered an incomplete tunnel from Tijuana, Mexico running across the border. It was over 1800 feet and as much as 90 feet deep. This took a great deal of effort (two years) and expense (millions of dollars) to build, and would not be necessary were it not for an effective border fencing system they had to bypass.From time to time, there are stories of checkpoint personnel or other Border Patrol personnel taking bribes to help smuggle people or contraband across the border. Again, if the fence were not providing any protection, these bribes would not be necessary, and again, this provides proof that the fence is beginning to work.
But, it is not like people have completely forgotten the subject. A recent (Nov 2009) Washington Post Poll showed 61 Percent of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents Say GOP Puts ‘Too Little’ Emphasis on Illegal Immigration, (The poll asked respondents their opinion about the degree of emphasis the Republican Party puts on eight issues: gun rights, same-sex marriage, abortion, federal spending, taxes, the environment, illegal immigration, and the economy and jobs.)
Meanwhile, the news page for the Border Patrol is choked with trivial stuff, causing articles to scroll off of the page quickly. However, a periodic update link was helpful.
I discovered this article (5 Jan 2010), showing that attention given the border provides a good return on investment, among the many listed. Excerpt:
The statistics of the Yuma Sector of the U.S. Border Patrol do not tell the entire story but the go a long way to explain the significant improvements in security over the last five years.
Back in 2005, there were 138,000 arrests along the Yuma Sector's 126 miles of border they are responsible for, Beeson noted. But in 2009, those arrests were down to just 7,356. That is a 94 percent decrease in illegal activity.
The Yuma Station was the busiest of all 146 Border Patrol stations in 2005, Beeson reminded his hushed audience. "Vehicle drive throughs" (failure to stop) at the border was 2,700 five years ago while last year it dropped to 109.
"We've made a significant impact on illegal activity all along our sector. We say, we have 'operational control' over all 126 miles. So that's the ability to protect, classify, respond, and resolve all cross border threats."
But Beeson gives credit where it is due and praises the efforts of the National Guard who were temporarily stationed at the border in 2006. The Guard helped significantly with the Border Patrol's tactical infrastructure which included vehicle and pedestrian fencing, lighting, and all weather patrol roads, Beeson said.
"From the time the Guard showed up illegal traffic dropped precipitously. The Guard gave us a big leg up with our infrastructure."
Coupled with that beefed up infrastructure was a substantial increase in personnel, jumping from 358 agents in 2005 to 977 agents last year, Beeson noted. They also have a very strong air branch now, including helicopters and fixed wing aircraft deployed on a regular basis to support their ground surveillance.
They also received mobile surveillance systems, trucks with radar and cameras that can scan the whole area and greatly helped the Yuma Sector gain control of the border, he added.
The border is a very remote, harsh desert climate, Beeson said. Along with arrests they performed 19 rescues. In addition, they had 6,951 apprehensions of Mexican Nationals crossing illegally and 405 apprehensions of other nationals in 2009.
Just a note, on that last line: "other nationals."
Smugglers? or Terrorists?
The article doesn't say.
But without the fence, absolutely no one would know.
We must remain steadfast.
.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Future Of Blogging
In the past, the science of blogging has been mostly benefited the liberals. There are a number of reasons for this, but some very important ones include less work ethic means they have more time for blogging and other social interaction, and they have fewer morals and less restraint on techniques for attracting attention.
This is a volume, as well as quality game, and if we are to make headway in this culture war, we must learn the lessons they have given us to improve our visibility to others.
I think I have learned some lessons over the past couple of years. First, I have a pretty limited amount of time to contribute, and second is that traffic is driven to a blog through two means. One is the number of posts, and the second is the number of other blogs that link to it.
The liberals have for the past several years used that second criteria to their advantage. Posting many comments on other peoples blogs, each with a link to their own blog. This is a sort of spam attack that allows even conservative blogs to unwittingly lend credibility to liberal blogs.
One thing I intend to do over the next year is to attract attention to one political blog that I mostly agree with (not my own, I am far too obscure). I will do that by registering with, and regularly posting comments to, several well balanced blogs that have fairly high traffic, located around the country and around the cyberscape. Each comment will have a link to the target blog. Note that I won't be spamming. If I have nothing worth saying, I won't just post garbage. That is one of the moral limitations we conservatives must keep.
This is a volume, as well as quality game, and if we are to make headway in this culture war, we must learn the lessons they have given us to improve our visibility to others.
I think I have learned some lessons over the past couple of years. First, I have a pretty limited amount of time to contribute, and second is that traffic is driven to a blog through two means. One is the number of posts, and the second is the number of other blogs that link to it.
The liberals have for the past several years used that second criteria to their advantage. Posting many comments on other peoples blogs, each with a link to their own blog. This is a sort of spam attack that allows even conservative blogs to unwittingly lend credibility to liberal blogs.
One thing I intend to do over the next year is to attract attention to one political blog that I mostly agree with (not my own, I am far too obscure). I will do that by registering with, and regularly posting comments to, several well balanced blogs that have fairly high traffic, located around the country and around the cyberscape. Each comment will have a link to the target blog. Note that I won't be spamming. If I have nothing worth saying, I won't just post garbage. That is one of the moral limitations we conservatives must keep.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
The Drop in Unemployment that is NOT
There was quite a bit in the news last about a drop in unemployment. This was a convenient fiction. It got some people some good publicity and others a bump up in their stock portfolio. The economy continues to shed jobs, although at a slowing rate. Worse news is that we continue to shed manufacturing jobs (although at a slowing rate). We can make unlimited gains in all other sectors, and if we don't gain manufacturing jobs, we will never prosper. Understanding that the population continues to grow, even if the economy were shedding zero jobs, the number of unemployed would continue to rise.
Unemployment remains steady?
Why? It merely means this recession has gone on long enough that a lot of people are dropping off of the back side of the safety net. They are no longer counted. I said, a couple of months ago, that there is about 7 percent unemployment unaccounted for in the official numbers. That "uncounted" unemployment is slowly rising towards 8%, and from what I have read, it may pass 8% this month. This problem may be further masked by a temporary hiring of over a million temporary government workers for the census, the first half of 2010.
When the economy really does improve, many of the formerly fully employed will find themselves scratching for crumbs while working one or two part time or temporary jobs. Real improvement at all levels of our society is not yet even in sight. Bloomberg had a good article in early November that exposes our long term outlook. Look for the phrases "risk of deflation"
and the phrase "Treasuries are still worth buying"
The "W" I thought I saw a few months ago in the economic outlook, now looks it may be just pause in the downward spiral of our national economic health. Economists are still looking for the second dip in what they would call a "double dip recession" (As an historical note, the Great Depression was a triple dip) It is impossible to say at this point, but remember, when looking at these charts, our population is increasing by about 1% per year, so a level line indicates a downward trend.
We are still looking forwards to a sharp increase in inflation. It may still be a year or two away, but it will be almost impossible to avoid. Hopefully improvements in the employment situation will happen at the same time. Those improvements are not likely to come first.
Those who are still thinking of investing in Gold? I don't think so. The window of opportunity came and went a year ago. I currently don't see it happening again for quite some time. Gold today should be around $930 an ounce. The rest is run up from excess demand (that means bubble). Currently I am beginning to look into the idea of Rare Earth Minerals. This would be futile on an individual basis, but could be possible for a corporation (think "bank," but holding minerals instead of cash).
Gas and Oil Rising
Gasoline this winter is dropped, about 20 cents or so off of its peak last summer, But don't get used to it. It will rise again, peaking around 50 cents higher than last summer. The reason for these fluctuations (and keep in mind there is several months lag between oil prices and "gas at the pump" prices) is a dip and then recovery in oil prices. Complicating this, and maybe exacerbating the run up in prices,. is the falling value of the dollar, and the coming inflationary period. Gas could easily increase by another dollar between May 1st of this year and May 1st of next year.
Oil, bouncing back from a catastrophic fall in 2008, will likely resume its climb to $100 a barrel and beyond. The good news is that means it will be worth enough to pump some of it right here at home. Unfortunately, we don't have an infinite supply of it. China is importing and using a steadily increasing amount, and unlike US, they have a pretty good grip on how to handle the supply and demand on a national level. If we are smart, we will invest heavily in coal fired power plants, nuclear, and natural gas. If we are mislead by the Global Warming Crowd (which we now know to be a hoax) , we may foolishly think solar, wind, other alternative fuels and conservation will fix everything. Those things will be useful, but they will not do the job by themselves for at least a hundred years.
Articles of interest:
U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak (Bloomberg Dec 9)
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar (Bloomberg Dec 4)
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2.67 Trillion (Bloomberg Dec 10)
[for a substantial portion of that look above at foreclosures]
Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation (Dec. 8 Bloomberg)
Quote: "Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling? Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months is that it took so long to arrive. "
With unemployment passing 10 percent and millions of jobs gone for good, the recession is taking a brutal human toll. Quote: "they receive temporary state and federal unemployment benefits—which for most workers total about 60 percent of their former pay. But unless Congress extends them, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks" Nov 19
Reuters Blogger James Penthokoukis
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
Unemployment remains steady?
Why? It merely means this recession has gone on long enough that a lot of people are dropping off of the back side of the safety net. They are no longer counted. I said, a couple of months ago, that there is about 7 percent unemployment unaccounted for in the official numbers. That "uncounted" unemployment is slowly rising towards 8%, and from what I have read, it may pass 8% this month. This problem may be further masked by a temporary hiring of over a million temporary government workers for the census, the first half of 2010.
When the economy really does improve, many of the formerly fully employed will find themselves scratching for crumbs while working one or two part time or temporary jobs. Real improvement at all levels of our society is not yet even in sight. Bloomberg had a good article in early November that exposes our long term outlook. Look for the phrases "risk of deflation"
and the phrase "Treasuries are still worth buying"
The "W" I thought I saw a few months ago in the economic outlook, now looks it may be just pause in the downward spiral of our national economic health. Economists are still looking for the second dip in what they would call a "double dip recession" (As an historical note, the Great Depression was a triple dip) It is impossible to say at this point, but remember, when looking at these charts, our population is increasing by about 1% per year, so a level line indicates a downward trend.
We are still looking forwards to a sharp increase in inflation. It may still be a year or two away, but it will be almost impossible to avoid. Hopefully improvements in the employment situation will happen at the same time. Those improvements are not likely to come first.
Those who are still thinking of investing in Gold? I don't think so. The window of opportunity came and went a year ago. I currently don't see it happening again for quite some time. Gold today should be around $930 an ounce. The rest is run up from excess demand (that means bubble). Currently I am beginning to look into the idea of Rare Earth Minerals. This would be futile on an individual basis, but could be possible for a corporation (think "bank," but holding minerals instead of cash).
Gas and Oil Rising
Gasoline this winter is dropped, about 20 cents or so off of its peak last summer, But don't get used to it. It will rise again, peaking around 50 cents higher than last summer. The reason for these fluctuations (and keep in mind there is several months lag between oil prices and "gas at the pump" prices) is a dip and then recovery in oil prices. Complicating this, and maybe exacerbating the run up in prices,. is the falling value of the dollar, and the coming inflationary period. Gas could easily increase by another dollar between May 1st of this year and May 1st of next year.
Oil, bouncing back from a catastrophic fall in 2008, will likely resume its climb to $100 a barrel and beyond. The good news is that means it will be worth enough to pump some of it right here at home. Unfortunately, we don't have an infinite supply of it. China is importing and using a steadily increasing amount, and unlike US, they have a pretty good grip on how to handle the supply and demand on a national level. If we are smart, we will invest heavily in coal fired power plants, nuclear, and natural gas. If we are mislead by the Global Warming Crowd (which we now know to be a hoax) , we may foolishly think solar, wind, other alternative fuels and conservation will fix everything. Those things will be useful, but they will not do the job by themselves for at least a hundred years.
Articles of interest:
U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak (Bloomberg Dec 9)
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar (Bloomberg Dec 4)
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2.67 Trillion (Bloomberg Dec 10)
[for a substantial portion of that look above at foreclosures]
Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation (Dec. 8 Bloomberg)
Quote: "Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling? Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months is that it took so long to arrive. "
With unemployment passing 10 percent and millions of jobs gone for good, the recession is taking a brutal human toll. Quote: "they receive temporary state and federal unemployment benefits—which for most workers total about 60 percent of their former pay. But unless Congress extends them, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks" Nov 19
Reuters Blogger James Penthokoukis
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
The Aproaching Primary Elections
This is an "off year" election season. What does that mean to an intelligent citizen? Our vote counts double. And counts triple in the Primary Election coming up in a couple months. Here in Texas, the primaries are the 2nd of March. In years past, I advocated telling everyone you knew that the primary season is a good time to vote and try to get everyone to the ballot boxes for every election.
NO MORE.
Now I have seen that too many of our citizenry are seduced with the modern drugs of socialism and liberalism, political correctness and post modernism. And, of course, celebrity worship. And too many of them have no idea what government's true purpose is, or what the Constitution says about our government and our nation. Too many of them, "educated" by the liberal government schools, do not know the true foundations of our nation, and do not know the true underpinnings of our society.
Today I advocate discernment. Find out which of your friends and acquaintances have been seduced with the drugs above, and which have not. And tell those, which have not been seduced, how important it is to get out and vote.
Of course, this being an election year, many of the projects that were pretending to be "shovel ready" for last year's stimulus will actually be worked on this year. This will provide some temporary work for some of the people seeking jobs. And make it look, temporarily, like the current liberal administration is actually helping the country get back on its feet. In reality, it was the liberal policies of the current and past political machine that got us into the mess our economy is in, and the programs that were put into place last year will ultimately make things worse. This will make our job harder.
Listening to conservative talk radio, one might get an idea that the next elections are all wrapped up. I estimate that, at least 8 times an hour, I hear how the public is so peeved that the Democrats cannot hope to win the next election, and that any Republican with any sense will embrace conservative values. Get real. About half of the public has no idea what is good for the country and will only vote for which ever candidate is a pretty boy.
We cannot be complacent. Nor can we simply concede defeat. Nor can we just sit idly by and wait for the return of Jesus (if He returns today, we lose nothing by espousing Christian values of liberty and economy, if He tarries long, we lose much by allowing tyranny and despotism to destroy possibly the last remaining place on Earth we can be assured of our freedom to practice Christianity in Peace.
We must be harmless as sheep, but we must never forget that the Bible tells us to be as wise as serpents.
A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves. - Edward R. Murrow
NO MORE.
Now I have seen that too many of our citizenry are seduced with the modern drugs of socialism and liberalism, political correctness and post modernism. And, of course, celebrity worship. And too many of them have no idea what government's true purpose is, or what the Constitution says about our government and our nation. Too many of them, "educated" by the liberal government schools, do not know the true foundations of our nation, and do not know the true underpinnings of our society.
Today I advocate discernment. Find out which of your friends and acquaintances have been seduced with the drugs above, and which have not. And tell those, which have not been seduced, how important it is to get out and vote.
Of course, this being an election year, many of the projects that were pretending to be "shovel ready" for last year's stimulus will actually be worked on this year. This will provide some temporary work for some of the people seeking jobs. And make it look, temporarily, like the current liberal administration is actually helping the country get back on its feet. In reality, it was the liberal policies of the current and past political machine that got us into the mess our economy is in, and the programs that were put into place last year will ultimately make things worse. This will make our job harder.
Listening to conservative talk radio, one might get an idea that the next elections are all wrapped up. I estimate that, at least 8 times an hour, I hear how the public is so peeved that the Democrats cannot hope to win the next election, and that any Republican with any sense will embrace conservative values. Get real. About half of the public has no idea what is good for the country and will only vote for which ever candidate is a pretty boy.
We cannot be complacent. Nor can we simply concede defeat. Nor can we just sit idly by and wait for the return of Jesus (if He returns today, we lose nothing by espousing Christian values of liberty and economy, if He tarries long, we lose much by allowing tyranny and despotism to destroy possibly the last remaining place on Earth we can be assured of our freedom to practice Christianity in Peace.
We must be harmless as sheep, but we must never forget that the Bible tells us to be as wise as serpents.
A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves. - Edward R. Murrow
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Are You Really a Christian?
So, What makes you think your a Christian?
As I have talked to many christians recently, I have found that a great number of them have no real idea what it is to be a christian. Many are living in direct conflict with what the Bible teaches about being a Christian.
How can that be, and what are the differences that I am seeing?
Differences come in two forms. Things we do that are opposed to God, and things we don't do that God commands us to do. In years past, the first was the problem. Many so called christians would do things in direct opposition to what the Bible teaches. But I am convinced that now, and in the immediate future, the larger problem will be so called christians, and also many real Christians, not doing what the Bible teaches we must.
The major problem with Christians not doing what the Bible teaches is that they don't know what the Bible teaches. In fact, many are so uneducated about the Bible that any so called Pastor can teach them what ever they want and the Christian will not know the difference.
This problem did not come about over night (in fact, it was the reason the Lutheran Church and the King Jams Bible came into existance), and it won't be solved overnight. But we Christians must attack this problem on a daily basis, through our own Bible study and through encouraging any professing Christian to study the Word.
As I have talked to many christians recently, I have found that a great number of them have no real idea what it is to be a christian. Many are living in direct conflict with what the Bible teaches about being a Christian.
How can that be, and what are the differences that I am seeing?
Differences come in two forms. Things we do that are opposed to God, and things we don't do that God commands us to do. In years past, the first was the problem. Many so called christians would do things in direct opposition to what the Bible teaches. But I am convinced that now, and in the immediate future, the larger problem will be so called christians, and also many real Christians, not doing what the Bible teaches we must.
The major problem with Christians not doing what the Bible teaches is that they don't know what the Bible teaches. In fact, many are so uneducated about the Bible that any so called Pastor can teach them what ever they want and the Christian will not know the difference.
This problem did not come about over night (in fact, it was the reason the Lutheran Church and the King Jams Bible came into existance), and it won't be solved overnight. But we Christians must attack this problem on a daily basis, through our own Bible study and through encouraging any professing Christian to study the Word.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
MicroSoft Does Something Right?
I have, these past few weeks, been taking a look at Windows 7. Maybe it is the competition from Linux (highly likely, since a lot of the "new" features in Win7 were already available in Linux), or maybe it is just how badly they screwed up some things in XP and Vista. But either way, it looks like they have done something good with Win7.
I normally wait a full year before looking into any new product from MicroSoft, but between the way they screwed up with Vista and some favorable reviews I saw this year on Win7, I thought I would take a look at it before the year was up. Plus, I got my wife a netbook, and the only thing I could find was either Vista or Win7. After doing about a week of research, it was an easy choice.
From the fact that all of the programing loads from a single disc - no matter which version you are buying (and there are about 5 versions) - to the way it handles hibernation and switching users, it looks like they have done a better job than any previous editions.
That is not to say I will be totally enamored with it. First, it costs over $100 a copy. Although you can get a family pack of 3 copies for less than the single copy price, a feature only useful to businesses in the past.
I still think, ultimately, Linux will be the way to go. But Win7 ain't bad.
I normally wait a full year before looking into any new product from MicroSoft, but between the way they screwed up with Vista and some favorable reviews I saw this year on Win7, I thought I would take a look at it before the year was up. Plus, I got my wife a netbook, and the only thing I could find was either Vista or Win7. After doing about a week of research, it was an easy choice.
From the fact that all of the programing loads from a single disc - no matter which version you are buying (and there are about 5 versions) - to the way it handles hibernation and switching users, it looks like they have done a better job than any previous editions.
That is not to say I will be totally enamored with it. First, it costs over $100 a copy. Although you can get a family pack of 3 copies for less than the single copy price, a feature only useful to businesses in the past.
I still think, ultimately, Linux will be the way to go. But Win7 ain't bad.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Living Biblically 4
This is the 4th and final part to my review of the book "The Year of Living Biblically"
One of the reasons I recommended this book in the first place is that it provides a bird's eye view of the whole of Christianity. The author sets out, among other things, to look at every facet, denomination, sect, and cult of both Jewish and Christian (although, primarily the Jewish) religions. It is a breathtaking look at the variety of viewpoints and interpretations of the Bible, and despite being centered mostly on Old Testament, I think Christians should find it greatly interesting.
My first three reviews:
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/01/book-pre-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/02/book-mid-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/04/book-review.html
I have been told by reliable teachers, once you think you have a good grip on what you think you believe, it is always good to look around at those whom you might have a disagreement with. Sometimes they will give you insight you didn't previously have. Otherwise, it is still good, they can make you do the hard work of justifying your beliefs more precisely.
As I have mentioned before, the author misses the big picture, but he does get some impressive insights right. One of the ones I hadn't seen clearly before was the Sabbath. He got this one more right than I did.
Other reasons for reading (and owning) this book are the excellent lists of "footnotes," the index and the lists of (most of) the books he read while researching and writing this book. He really does have an impressive bibliography.
And I should also mention that, as it is written in diary format, it is a lesson in how to keep a journal, and how to examine that journal - both, for insight and for a good historical reference.
One of the reasons I recommended this book in the first place is that it provides a bird's eye view of the whole of Christianity. The author sets out, among other things, to look at every facet, denomination, sect, and cult of both Jewish and Christian (although, primarily the Jewish) religions. It is a breathtaking look at the variety of viewpoints and interpretations of the Bible, and despite being centered mostly on Old Testament, I think Christians should find it greatly interesting.
My first three reviews:
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/01/book-pre-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/02/book-mid-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/04/book-review.html
I have been told by reliable teachers, once you think you have a good grip on what you think you believe, it is always good to look around at those whom you might have a disagreement with. Sometimes they will give you insight you didn't previously have. Otherwise, it is still good, they can make you do the hard work of justifying your beliefs more precisely.
As I have mentioned before, the author misses the big picture, but he does get some impressive insights right. One of the ones I hadn't seen clearly before was the Sabbath. He got this one more right than I did.
Other reasons for reading (and owning) this book are the excellent lists of "footnotes," the index and the lists of (most of) the books he read while researching and writing this book. He really does have an impressive bibliography.
And I should also mention that, as it is written in diary format, it is a lesson in how to keep a journal, and how to examine that journal - both, for insight and for a good historical reference.
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Lending to ourselves
To make us look richer.
Those who stop by here that have a real understanding of economics should understand that nothing I post here in economics is prophetic or guinious. What I do here is distill some of the important news of recent times, and flavor it with my own philosophy. Nothing more. My goal is simply to make it understandable to the average Joe.
The numbers used by Wall Street and the govnernment show the economy is truning around, but this is partially an illusion, due to the decline in the value of the dollar.
The biggest recent news, for me, is the slide in the 5 year bond rate, from the boring little dance it did around 2.3% from last spring until this fall. It is now around 2.05%, and I saw 2.00% for a monment last week. The surface reason for this drop in intrest rates is the banking crisis in Dubai. The underlying reson, and the reason it has been staying so low for so long, (remember, a few months ago I said it was formerly 2.9%) is a stealth economy growing in the Washington-Wall Street circles. Seems the Fed has been buying up long term bonds, both government and corporate bonds and securities.
Keeping in mind that the Fed is loaning money to banks
and some other financial institutions at .1% (yest that is one tenth of one percent) this amounts to flooding the markets with free cash. And who is buying up this free cash? Well, it seems the banks are. It seems that, while Washington is publicly telling the banks to loan to homeowners and small businesses, it is quietly structureing the rules so that banks will invest in something safer. Like US treasury bonds. Yes you read that right. The Fed is lending to banks at near zero interest, and the banks are turning around and investing that money in the Fed at 2% to 4%. Free money for banks.
Brave New World
This has sparked a new era of "the dollar carry trade." The term is new, so you might have better luck looking up "yen carry trade" which was a phenomenon in the 90's. Meanwhile, many paniced investers all across the globe (including the coountry of India) are buying up tons of Gold. Not for the first time, the US Mint is short on one once gold coins. While I don't think this is the end of the world in any since, this with what I wrote about the past couple of months, does foretell a new era of increased hardship for the American worker.
Those who stop by here that have a real understanding of economics should understand that nothing I post here in economics is prophetic or guinious. What I do here is distill some of the important news of recent times, and flavor it with my own philosophy. Nothing more. My goal is simply to make it understandable to the average Joe.
The numbers used by Wall Street and the govnernment show the economy is truning around, but this is partially an illusion, due to the decline in the value of the dollar.
The biggest recent news, for me, is the slide in the 5 year bond rate, from the boring little dance it did around 2.3% from last spring until this fall. It is now around 2.05%, and I saw 2.00% for a monment last week. The surface reason for this drop in intrest rates is the banking crisis in Dubai. The underlying reson, and the reason it has been staying so low for so long, (remember, a few months ago I said it was formerly 2.9%) is a stealth economy growing in the Washington-Wall Street circles. Seems the Fed has been buying up long term bonds, both government and corporate bonds and securities.
Keeping in mind that the Fed is loaning money to banks
and some other financial institutions at .1% (yest that is one tenth of one percent) this amounts to flooding the markets with free cash. And who is buying up this free cash? Well, it seems the banks are. It seems that, while Washington is publicly telling the banks to loan to homeowners and small businesses, it is quietly structureing the rules so that banks will invest in something safer. Like US treasury bonds. Yes you read that right. The Fed is lending to banks at near zero interest, and the banks are turning around and investing that money in the Fed at 2% to 4%. Free money for banks.
Brave New World
This has sparked a new era of "the dollar carry trade." The term is new, so you might have better luck looking up "yen carry trade" which was a phenomenon in the 90's. Meanwhile, many paniced investers all across the globe (including the coountry of India) are buying up tons of Gold. Not for the first time, the US Mint is short on one once gold coins. While I don't think this is the end of the world in any since, this with what I wrote about the past couple of months, does foretell a new era of increased hardship for the American worker.
Monday, November 30, 2009
The Border is Neglected
I was going over my notes, and discovered I hadn't written anything about the border in quite a while. This is not because I don't think it is important any more, but I have just neglected it because it hasn't been much in the news any more. With all the other stuff going on, and not that much happening with the border, it is one area that hasn't gotten much coverage.
There is no excuse for this. While there hasn't been as much immigration activity due to our economy being in the dumps, drug smuggling is still going on, and terrorists can still move freely across our border.
The Army Corps of Engineers does have a border fence assessments site, which, while mostly a big PR stunt, isn't all bad.
Proof that the fencing action is working (June 2008)
There is, of course, another side of the coin, some ranchers worry how they will get their livestock to water after the border fence is built? Border Fence Plan Worries Texas Ranchers (Oct 2006) and I would never discount that. It is just one hurdle we are required to get past.
Hopefully I won't neglect this topic in the future.
There is no excuse for this. While there hasn't been as much immigration activity due to our economy being in the dumps, drug smuggling is still going on, and terrorists can still move freely across our border.
The Army Corps of Engineers does have a border fence assessments site, which, while mostly a big PR stunt, isn't all bad.
Proof that the fencing action is working (June 2008)
The increasing use of bribes by Mexican drug cartels to corrupt U.S. agents comes as Washington is sending $400 million to help Mexico’s army-led war on the trafficking gangs, whose brutal murders have surged to unprecedented levels.
There is, of course, another side of the coin, some ranchers worry how they will get their livestock to water after the border fence is built? Border Fence Plan Worries Texas Ranchers (Oct 2006) and I would never discount that. It is just one hurdle we are required to get past.
Hopefully I won't neglect this topic in the future.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
A day of Thanksgiving, or consumption
Today is supposed to be a day of Thanksgiving. But too many Americans, and too many others around the world, will only be interested in how much they can consume. It goes along with the Black Friday mentality.
This was what first attracted me to Geez Magazine. And while I don't share all of their views, I do share some of them. In fact, one of the first articles read was at the beginning of their De-Moterize Your Soul campaign, which many of us should at least give a passing glance. I don't read their stuff any more, but am thankful they were there for the few months I did read some of their stuff. The ones I liked the best are no longer on the site, but here is a good one about taking up bicycling for Lent.
So, instead of planning how we will go Chasing the Wind tommorrow, why don't we take today to give thanks for (or try to make amends with) our friends and families, and plan to spend tommorrow NOT shopping.
Just a thought.
This was what first attracted me to Geez Magazine. And while I don't share all of their views, I do share some of them. In fact, one of the first articles read was at the beginning of their De-Moterize Your Soul campaign, which many of us should at least give a passing glance. I don't read their stuff any more, but am thankful they were there for the few months I did read some of their stuff. The ones I liked the best are no longer on the site, but here is a good one about taking up bicycling for Lent.
So, instead of planning how we will go Chasing the Wind tommorrow, why don't we take today to give thanks for (or try to make amends with) our friends and families, and plan to spend tommorrow NOT shopping.
Just a thought.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Season of Advent
I just looked at the Blog of the Crunchy Conservative, which I used to read occationally, and there is nothing on Advent. Checked some other pages on Beliefnet, and while there is some stuff, none of it is on the front page. Hmmm, the season is upon us, and I wonder how many, if you did a survey, know the relationship of John the Baptist and Jesus. Or Elizabeth and Mary.
Just wondering.
If anybody else is wondering, it is in
the first chapter or two of the Gospel According to Luke.
Happy Reading.
Just wondering.
If anybody else is wondering, it is in
the first chapter or two of the Gospel According to Luke.
Happy Reading.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Ammo Shortage almost over
The ammunition shortage is easing. (And that must be Bush's fault too. )
The article misrepresents some of the facts and totally ignors others, but is correct that the Ammo shortage is easing. I was recently able to find reasonable quatities of ammo at Achadamy.
Truth is, Obama has done everything he can to infringe on the second amendment rights of citizens, and the press has done everything they can to ignore it, or misconstrue it. The press has for the past two years plus, been blaming the ammunition shortage on the war in Iraq, and later on the reaction to the election President Obama. Well, on that last part, they may be partly right. We did stock up a lot of guns and ammo based, correctly, on the premise that Obama is hostile to the Constitution - and especially the Second Amendment (and it is looking like he is just as hostile to the First Amendment, but that is another article).
The real problem began with the militarization of police forces in the late 90's as a poorly managed reaction to the Los Angeles bank robbery shootout. The massive increase in firepower and (practice) ammo usage caused the inital shortage in 2006 and 2007. Of course, that still goes on, and added to the stocking up of citizens in 2008 and 2009.
Back Story, correcting all the myths promoted by the Liberal Associated Press.
http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/237760.php
More currant story, same author.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/6547
If, for some reason, that one fails, try this one,
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/archive/all/2009/3?page=3
the article was written on 6 Mar 09
As a side note: Obama has ordered the disarming of Airlines Pilots, choosing Idiocracy over security.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/6583
The article misrepresents some of the facts and totally ignors others, but is correct that the Ammo shortage is easing. I was recently able to find reasonable quatities of ammo at Achadamy.
Demand for guns and ammo began growing last year before the November presidential election. It continued partly because many gun owners were concerned that President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress would reinstate an assault weapons ban or drastically hike taxes on ammunition, guns and firearms materials, analysts have said.
While there hasn’t been such action in Washington, apprehension remains and is likely playing a role in prompting people nationwide to not just buy guns and ammunition, but to stock up on them as well, some gun enthusiasts say.
Truth is, Obama has done everything he can to infringe on the second amendment rights of citizens, and the press has done everything they can to ignore it, or misconstrue it. The press has for the past two years plus, been blaming the ammunition shortage on the war in Iraq, and later on the reaction to the election President Obama. Well, on that last part, they may be partly right. We did stock up a lot of guns and ammo based, correctly, on the premise that Obama is hostile to the Constitution - and especially the Second Amendment (and it is looking like he is just as hostile to the First Amendment, but that is another article).
The real problem began with the militarization of police forces in the late 90's as a poorly managed reaction to the Los Angeles bank robbery shootout. The massive increase in firepower and (practice) ammo usage caused the inital shortage in 2006 and 2007. Of course, that still goes on, and added to the stocking up of citizens in 2008 and 2009.
Back Story, correcting all the myths promoted by the Liberal Associated Press.
http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/237760.php
More currant story, same author.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/6547
If, for some reason, that one fails, try this one,
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/archive/all/2009/3?page=3
the article was written on 6 Mar 09
As a side note: Obama has ordered the disarming of Airlines Pilots, choosing Idiocracy over security.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/6583
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Looking at rising numbers, but no
Because most measurements of our economy are measuring the wrong things, the economy still looks better than it is. If you read this Oct 29th Bloomberg article, you will see that the GDP grew 3.5 pecent in the third quarter after a yearlong contraction as government incentives spurred consumers to spend more. What is wrong with this picture is that they are still measuring consumption, as if consuming things will make us wealthy.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing Index rose above 50 for the third straight month Now that is an honest sign of recovery. Full report here. Hold your apploause, this, by its self, is not good news. (as you read past the nice headline, it doesn't say more people are working, only that those working are producing more. Still, that is good, at least in the "not too short" run.)
Here, Peggy Noonan gives a more complete picture of the problems facing America in the long run, titled "We Are Governed by Callous Children." Be sure to read both parts of her article.
Our Competition, China, may Add 11 Million Jobs as Recovery Gains Pace. This is why gas prices are going up.
Employment data is still dismal excerpt:
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg)
And remember, the real rate, when you count all those not elegible for unemployment insurance payouts is about 7% higher.
As if the above isn't enough to show that Wall Street is out of touch with Main Street, Goldman Sachs is considering giving $1B to charity to mollifiy anger with their giving over $16B in executive compensation to reward those who helped run the economy off into the ditch. Or they might put the $1B into dividends. Ya'Think? The fact that they are only considering this as an altermative to funding their pet projects shows that corpratism is certainly not capitolism. (Update: They put the money into a fund to help small businesses. Still, profits should go to shareholders, not to corporate execs and their pet charities, even if I like their charities.)
So, there you have it. The recovery is underway - if you are a corporate exec or banker. If you used to turn a wrench or work in a factory, it will be quite a while longer for you. This stage of the recovery is for those who already have money.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing Index rose above 50 for the third straight month Now that is an honest sign of recovery. Full report here. Hold your apploause, this, by its self, is not good news. (as you read past the nice headline, it doesn't say more people are working, only that those working are producing more. Still, that is good, at least in the "not too short" run.)
Here, Peggy Noonan gives a more complete picture of the problems facing America in the long run, titled "We Are Governed by Callous Children." Be sure to read both parts of her article.
Our Competition, China, may Add 11 Million Jobs as Recovery Gains Pace. This is why gas prices are going up.
Employment data is still dismal excerpt:
The Labor Department on Nov. 6 will report that the unemployment rate rose to
9.9 percent in October, from 9.8 percent the previous month, as companies cut
another 175,000 jobs, according to the median forecasts in Bloomberg News
surveys of economists. More Americans filed bankruptcy in October than any month
since changes to bankruptcy laws in 2005.
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg)
The U.S. jobless rate probably rose to a 26-year high in September as employers kept cutting staff, signaling consumers will not lead the recovery, economists said before a report today.
Unemployment likely climbed to 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983, from 9.7 percent in August, according to the median estimate of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Payrolls probably fell by 175,000 workers...
And remember, the real rate, when you count all those not elegible for unemployment insurance payouts is about 7% higher.
As if the above isn't enough to show that Wall Street is out of touch with Main Street, Goldman Sachs is considering giving $1B to charity to mollifiy anger with their giving over $16B in executive compensation to reward those who helped run the economy off into the ditch. Or they might put the $1B into dividends. Ya'Think? The fact that they are only considering this as an altermative to funding their pet projects shows that corpratism is certainly not capitolism. (Update: They put the money into a fund to help small businesses. Still, profits should go to shareholders, not to corporate execs and their pet charities, even if I like their charities.)
So, there you have it. The recovery is underway - if you are a corporate exec or banker. If you used to turn a wrench or work in a factory, it will be quite a while longer for you. This stage of the recovery is for those who already have money.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Well, it is officially a swine flu emergency
Well, ths swine flu is now a declared pandemic, and even President Obama has gotten in on the act by declareing it a national emergency. I say this is an act because the H1N1 is still considered likely to do less damage than its seasonal counterparts. This is like calling a national emergency for a routine severe thunderstorm here in Texas. And if he really wanted to make a difference, where was he on this subject last May, when he could have made a difference?
In the mean time, the shortage of Children's Tamiflu, and this is not a production problem, since there is more than enough of the drug available. It is a problem with finding people willing to mix it into the right dose for children. Something any pharmacist can do. Of course this may change, as projections are for the epidemic to outstrip availability of the drug withing a couple of months.
Of course, all of this is made a little harder by those spreading rumors about the safety of the vaccine. I say a little harder, cause with not enough vaccine to go around, my thought is that you expend the vaccine on those willing to take it and ignore the nay sayers. Let the Darwin Effect take care of them. Let me be clear on my stand. The vaccine is relatively safe. No drug or vaccine is completely safe, but in this case, the risk associated with not getting the vaccine is much greater.
In the mean time, the shortage of Children's Tamiflu, and this is not a production problem, since there is more than enough of the drug available. It is a problem with finding people willing to mix it into the right dose for children. Something any pharmacist can do. Of course this may change, as projections are for the epidemic to outstrip availability of the drug withing a couple of months.
Of course, all of this is made a little harder by those spreading rumors about the safety of the vaccine. I say a little harder, cause with not enough vaccine to go around, my thought is that you expend the vaccine on those willing to take it and ignore the nay sayers. Let the Darwin Effect take care of them. Let me be clear on my stand. The vaccine is relatively safe. No drug or vaccine is completely safe, but in this case, the risk associated with not getting the vaccine is much greater.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Characteristics of a good Church
It is important for a Christian to be in regular company of other Christians. (It is commanded in the Bible too) Christians call this fellowship, but most people today don't know what that word means, so call it what you want. (the Bible calls it the gathering of yourselves together)
I have been brainstorming about some things to look for, if you are looking for a new Church. (or if you are looking for a Church, for the first time in a long time)
I undertook this idea for a number of reasons, first and foremost, because a couple of my recent pastors (my Church has changed pastors twice in the past 7 years) have stressed the importance of being involved with a Church.
Since you are looking for a group of Christians to spend some significant time with, both for company and for learning, you want to find a Church that is well suited to you.
And with so many Churches teaching incorrectly, or even teaching outright heresy, how can you determine which Church is the best? In my local area, there are enough Baptist, Lutheran, Christian, Bible, Nazarene and Assembly of God Churches that you could go to a different one every Sunday for a year.
The following should be helpful to those who are searching.
The Church Building
It should be ordinary, unspectacular. A Church building is a building for meetings and teaching. It is not, in itself, holy or sacred. The last thing you want is to try to go to a Church that meets in a building that intimidates you.
The Congregation.
Look for a medium sized congregation. This can be anywhere from 100 to 1000 people. Just so you are comfortable. Don't like to stand out? Look for a little larger one. Afraid of crowds, or feel like you will just get lost in the crowd and not find any one to be friends with? Look for a smaller one.
The Preaching and Teaching.
Of course, the most important aspect of a church is the Preaching and Teaching. There is no substitute (except as in the next paragraph) for Expository Preaching (which is really teaching). Expository Preaching is a system where the Pastor goes through a portion of the Bible, one chapter or even one verse at a time, teaching (or exposing) the Scriptures. The Bible specifically requires pastors and teachers for the equipping of the saints.
This means they are commanded to prepare Christians for service to Christ. Since this is their purpose, Expository Preaching is required. In addition, if a Pastor teaches on subjects straight through substantial portions of the Scriptures, it is very difficult for him to stray very far from the true meaning of those Scriptures, since the Scriptures, themselves, are tools for their own true interpretation. (This doesn't mean we can't have some disagreement on some interpretation, but the longer we study the scriptures, the smaller those disagreements should become, in relation to the whole.)
As a second best alternative to Expository Preaching, I suppose a liturgical format is OK, if they offer a Sunday School or other weekly (or twice weekly) expository study. Some information on the liturgical format:
Lutherans
Liturgical_1
Liturgical_2
At any rate, if they preach on the same subject three Sundays in a row, it is time to find a different Church, as they have become wrapped around the axle, and are no longer equipping the saints, but rather indulging their own social pet peeves. This is not quite the same as teaching from the same passage three weeks in a row, but close. A passage can be looked at from three different points of view, giving three different subjects. I would cut them a little more slack in this case = to maybe four Sundays. At any rate, if they are not moving on, teaching through the Scriptures, then it is time for you to move on.
Offerings and Tithes
Some (rare) Churches never "pass the plate" to take an offering. Some have been known to pass the plate three times in one service. Well, if they pass the plate more than once - except on rare occasions, then, again, it is time to find a different Church. On the other hand, if you are sitting indoors and the lights are on, someone has to pay the bills. And many Pastors find that leading a Church is a full time job, so they need to get paid. (The Bible actually directs a Church to support those who evangelize and those who teach the Scriptures)
But the Pastor should live like his flock. If most of the people who attend the Church live in apartments, or small unassuming houses, then the Pastor should live in a small unassuming house. If most in the congregation live in nice middle class homes, then they should expect
him to live in a comparable house.
If the Pastor lives like a king and the flock struggles to get by, if they constantly parade "successful stories of faith" across the stage or if you hear "let your seed reflect your need" (this is a specific heresy) or anything like it - run. Again, this would indicate that it is time to find another Church.
If you attend Sunday School, or any other theological classes offered by the Church, they should be Bible Based - not over dependant on other material. This doesn't mean they can't use other materials, but the classes should be centered on the Bible.
The Works of the Church
A Church should (unless they, themselves, are destitute) support Charities and Missions - this is one of the biggest advantages of belonging to a Church. If you have read things I have said in the past about charitable giving, then you know there is a hazard to giving individually. Namely that the money might not go where it should, or that they will spend much of it on trying to get you to give more. With a Church, one person can do the research on a charity for the whole group, and the charity only has one point of contact to waste their efforts on, if they try to get more.
The budget, along with some other Church documents, such as their Constitution and bylaws, should be open to inspection by members. But not necessarily by just anyone, so as a compromise, I would highly recommend inquiring about them before formally joining any Church.
Pastor and Deacons should be approachable. They are in charge of setting the overall direction of the Church and serving the spiritual needs of the congregation, but they are not Lords. And if they are not approachable, they cannot fulfil their Biblical Duties.
Conclusion.
So applying the above half a baker's dozen tests will narrow the choice of Churches by probably 90%. Possibly to zero - in which case you have to look for the closest thing you can find, and I would say that Expository Preaching is the most important test. Or you may have too look some distance to find a Church. Here in Texas, I know a few people who travel 30 or more miles to find a true Bible Based Church. But after learning the Bible for myself, I think it is worth it.
Proverbs 29:27
The righteous detest the dishonest;
the wicked detest the upright.
UPDATE 27Oct09: I discovered, this morning, that my links to the definition of Expository Preaching were broken. I fixed them, but at the same time, found that I wasn't satisfied with the definition they linked to. I will be looking for a more precise, yet pragmatic definition. But in the mean time, I found the following thoughts, which I want to provide.
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-09
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-10
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-11
I have been brainstorming about some things to look for, if you are looking for a new Church. (or if you are looking for a Church, for the first time in a long time)
I undertook this idea for a number of reasons, first and foremost, because a couple of my recent pastors (my Church has changed pastors twice in the past 7 years) have stressed the importance of being involved with a Church.
Since you are looking for a group of Christians to spend some significant time with, both for company and for learning, you want to find a Church that is well suited to you.
And with so many Churches teaching incorrectly, or even teaching outright heresy, how can you determine which Church is the best? In my local area, there are enough Baptist, Lutheran, Christian, Bible, Nazarene and Assembly of God Churches that you could go to a different one every Sunday for a year.
The following should be helpful to those who are searching.
The Church Building
It should be ordinary, unspectacular. A Church building is a building for meetings and teaching. It is not, in itself, holy or sacred. The last thing you want is to try to go to a Church that meets in a building that intimidates you.
The Congregation.
Look for a medium sized congregation. This can be anywhere from 100 to 1000 people. Just so you are comfortable. Don't like to stand out? Look for a little larger one. Afraid of crowds, or feel like you will just get lost in the crowd and not find any one to be friends with? Look for a smaller one.
The Preaching and Teaching.
Of course, the most important aspect of a church is the Preaching and Teaching. There is no substitute (except as in the next paragraph) for Expository Preaching (which is really teaching). Expository Preaching is a system where the Pastor goes through a portion of the Bible, one chapter or even one verse at a time, teaching (or exposing) the Scriptures. The Bible specifically requires pastors and teachers for the equipping of the saints.
This means they are commanded to prepare Christians for service to Christ. Since this is their purpose, Expository Preaching is required. In addition, if a Pastor teaches on subjects straight through substantial portions of the Scriptures, it is very difficult for him to stray very far from the true meaning of those Scriptures, since the Scriptures, themselves, are tools for their own true interpretation. (This doesn't mean we can't have some disagreement on some interpretation, but the longer we study the scriptures, the smaller those disagreements should become, in relation to the whole.)
As a second best alternative to Expository Preaching, I suppose a liturgical format is OK, if they offer a Sunday School or other weekly (or twice weekly) expository study. Some information on the liturgical format:
Lutherans
Liturgical_1
Liturgical_2
At any rate, if they preach on the same subject three Sundays in a row, it is time to find a different Church, as they have become wrapped around the axle, and are no longer equipping the saints, but rather indulging their own social pet peeves. This is not quite the same as teaching from the same passage three weeks in a row, but close. A passage can be looked at from three different points of view, giving three different subjects. I would cut them a little more slack in this case = to maybe four Sundays. At any rate, if they are not moving on, teaching through the Scriptures, then it is time for you to move on.
Offerings and Tithes
Some (rare) Churches never "pass the plate" to take an offering. Some have been known to pass the plate three times in one service. Well, if they pass the plate more than once - except on rare occasions, then, again, it is time to find a different Church. On the other hand, if you are sitting indoors and the lights are on, someone has to pay the bills. And many Pastors find that leading a Church is a full time job, so they need to get paid. (The Bible actually directs a Church to support those who evangelize and those who teach the Scriptures)
But the Pastor should live like his flock. If most of the people who attend the Church live in apartments, or small unassuming houses, then the Pastor should live in a small unassuming house. If most in the congregation live in nice middle class homes, then they should expect
him to live in a comparable house.
If the Pastor lives like a king and the flock struggles to get by, if they constantly parade "successful stories of faith" across the stage or if you hear "let your seed reflect your need" (this is a specific heresy) or anything like it - run. Again, this would indicate that it is time to find another Church.
If you attend Sunday School, or any other theological classes offered by the Church, they should be Bible Based - not over dependant on other material. This doesn't mean they can't use other materials, but the classes should be centered on the Bible.
The Works of the Church
A Church should (unless they, themselves, are destitute) support Charities and Missions - this is one of the biggest advantages of belonging to a Church. If you have read things I have said in the past about charitable giving, then you know there is a hazard to giving individually. Namely that the money might not go where it should, or that they will spend much of it on trying to get you to give more. With a Church, one person can do the research on a charity for the whole group, and the charity only has one point of contact to waste their efforts on, if they try to get more.
The budget, along with some other Church documents, such as their Constitution and bylaws, should be open to inspection by members. But not necessarily by just anyone, so as a compromise, I would highly recommend inquiring about them before formally joining any Church.
Pastor and Deacons should be approachable. They are in charge of setting the overall direction of the Church and serving the spiritual needs of the congregation, but they are not Lords. And if they are not approachable, they cannot fulfil their Biblical Duties.
Conclusion.
So applying the above half a baker's dozen tests will narrow the choice of Churches by probably 90%. Possibly to zero - in which case you have to look for the closest thing you can find, and I would say that Expository Preaching is the most important test. Or you may have too look some distance to find a Church. Here in Texas, I know a few people who travel 30 or more miles to find a true Bible Based Church. But after learning the Bible for myself, I think it is worth it.
Proverbs 29:27
The righteous detest the dishonest;
the wicked detest the upright.
UPDATE 27Oct09: I discovered, this morning, that my links to the definition of Expository Preaching were broken. I fixed them, but at the same time, found that I wasn't satisfied with the definition they linked to. I will be looking for a more precise, yet pragmatic definition. But in the mean time, I found the following thoughts, which I want to provide.
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-09
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-10
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-11
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Blog Labels
This is a detailed list of my LABELS.
Listed here for the purpose of making it easier to find any articles on any subject that I have written on. I will modify this article from time to time, to correct errors or in case I add some new topic of interest.
BIBLE_101
This label lists a series of articles on how to Study the Bible. The long version of the name is "Bible Studies 101" I will remove older articles from this whenever I replace them with newer versions.
BIBLE STUDY
This label includes all items posted with the goal of teaching others how to study the Bible. I am beginning to split this out, using this heading for motivational stuff and older articles and a new one "Bible Study 101" for the actual study guide.
Articles removed from "Bible Study 101" will be found here.
BLOGGING
This label includes information and stuff about the process of blogging itself.
Border Security
This label includes all articles discussing the building of the Border Fence and other security measures, also includes information on the enemies of our boarder security efforts.
BOOK REVIEWS
This label includes reviews of books I am reading,
Or have read over the past few years,
Or that I want to read, but haven't the time.
Car_and_Truck
This label includes stuff about cars and trucks
And many other forms of personal transportation,
Including those with two wheels.
CHRISTIAN LIVING
This label includes discussion on how Christians should live.
Authority for How Christians should live is the Bible.
But we need to look at 1 Corinthians 5
And balance it with Romans 15
De-Tagged
This label includes stuff that I have removed tags from. Some de-tagged articles could be stuff that I have written a more updated article on, or stuff that I no longer consider it worthy of anyone spending time on. I won't remove the article, or pretend I didn't write it, but will just change it to this label.
Disaster Prep
This label includes information on what we should be doing now to prepare for disasters
DRM
This label includes discussions about Digital Rights Management, Copyright Enforcement, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) and the Jackbooted thugs at RIAA and MPAA and some other producers.
ECONOMICS
This label includes all kinds of stuff on economics, whether world economics or national. Or micro economics which, for my definition, includes economics of a single business, household, or even a single process (like driving to work).
ENERGY
This label includes discussion of all forms of energy,
both mainstream and alternative.
Oil, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Home grown, imported -- etc
and the energy situations of other countries
EPIDEMIC
This label includes information on current, future, and past epidemics,
their expected impact,
and what we should be doing to deal with those epidemics.
FOLLY_CORPORATE
This label includes discussions on corporations,
their behavior, and how they undermine our prosperity,
our rights as citizens, and our sovereignty as a nation.
FOLLY_RELIGIOUS
This label includes various heretical teachings, from prosperity preachers
to politicians mis-using biblical teachings for political purposes, to others
using quasi or pseudo scriptural ideas to support pseudo christian beliefs.
FOllY_Political
This label includes things conservatives do that will hamstring them, or that show they are not really conservative, but rather, doing what is right for big corporations or the very rich. Also included are things that will reduce our ability to remain a free and prosperous country.
Retiree Issues
Planned - but there are no articles under this heading.
MISSING PAST
This label includes stuff, including technology, that have vanished over the last 20 or so years, due to manufactures going out of business, production costs for too few items, or excessive greed on the part of patent holders.
Obs_and_Defs
The long name for this is "Observations and Definitions"
Just a place to put short articles that are
not much more than a paragraph,
Any observation, definition, or quick link to a good article.
NOVEMBER
Short for "The November Chronicles"
This label includes evidence of the "coming storm" and the decline and fall of the American Nation. Primarily, five things are leading to this "coming storm" Overpopulation, Overspending, Apathy, Islam, and Environmentalism.
PERSONAL NOTES
This label includes notes on my personal life and things happening around me personally.
POLITICS
This label includes articles about state and national politics, and the goings on of international or foreign government bodies and agencies.
SLIMEBALLS
This label includes stuff I found where people have behaved in despicable ways. I thought about migrating this to the heading of Weasel, hat tip to the author of Dilbert for the term.
But instead, I have decided to depreciate it.
In Geekspeak, this means that
while I won't immediately delete it,
I won't be using it any more.
TECHNOLOGY
This label includes,
As the banner on my blog reads:
Discussions of Technology, and How We Use or Misuse it.
Listed here for the purpose of making it easier to find any articles on any subject that I have written on. I will modify this article from time to time, to correct errors or in case I add some new topic of interest.
BIBLE_101
This label lists a series of articles on how to Study the Bible. The long version of the name is "Bible Studies 101" I will remove older articles from this whenever I replace them with newer versions.
BIBLE STUDY
This label includes all items posted with the goal of teaching others how to study the Bible. I am beginning to split this out, using this heading for motivational stuff and older articles and a new one "Bible Study 101" for the actual study guide.
Articles removed from "Bible Study 101" will be found here.
BLOGGING
This label includes information and stuff about the process of blogging itself.
Border Security
This label includes all articles discussing the building of the Border Fence and other security measures, also includes information on the enemies of our boarder security efforts.
BOOK REVIEWS
This label includes reviews of books I am reading,
Or have read over the past few years,
Or that I want to read, but haven't the time.
Car_and_Truck
This label includes stuff about cars and trucks
And many other forms of personal transportation,
Including those with two wheels.
CHRISTIAN LIVING
This label includes discussion on how Christians should live.
Authority for How Christians should live is the Bible.
But we need to look at 1 Corinthians 5
And balance it with Romans 15
De-Tagged
This label includes stuff that I have removed tags from. Some de-tagged articles could be stuff that I have written a more updated article on, or stuff that I no longer consider it worthy of anyone spending time on. I won't remove the article, or pretend I didn't write it, but will just change it to this label.
Disaster Prep
This label includes information on what we should be doing now to prepare for disasters
DRM
This label includes discussions about Digital Rights Management, Copyright Enforcement, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) and the Jackbooted thugs at RIAA and MPAA and some other producers.
ECONOMICS
This label includes all kinds of stuff on economics, whether world economics or national. Or micro economics which, for my definition, includes economics of a single business, household, or even a single process (like driving to work).
ENERGY
This label includes discussion of all forms of energy,
both mainstream and alternative.
Oil, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Home grown, imported -- etc
and the energy situations of other countries
EPIDEMIC
This label includes information on current, future, and past epidemics,
their expected impact,
and what we should be doing to deal with those epidemics.
FOLLY_CORPORATE
This label includes discussions on corporations,
their behavior, and how they undermine our prosperity,
our rights as citizens, and our sovereignty as a nation.
FOLLY_RELIGIOUS
This label includes various heretical teachings, from prosperity preachers
to politicians mis-using biblical teachings for political purposes, to others
using quasi or pseudo scriptural ideas to support pseudo christian beliefs.
FOllY_Political
This label includes things conservatives do that will hamstring them, or that show they are not really conservative, but rather, doing what is right for big corporations or the very rich. Also included are things that will reduce our ability to remain a free and prosperous country.
Retiree Issues
Planned - but there are no articles under this heading.
MISSING PAST
This label includes stuff, including technology, that have vanished over the last 20 or so years, due to manufactures going out of business, production costs for too few items, or excessive greed on the part of patent holders.
Obs_and_Defs
The long name for this is "Observations and Definitions"
Just a place to put short articles that are
not much more than a paragraph,
Any observation, definition, or quick link to a good article.
NOVEMBER
Short for "The November Chronicles"
This label includes evidence of the "coming storm" and the decline and fall of the American Nation. Primarily, five things are leading to this "coming storm" Overpopulation, Overspending, Apathy, Islam, and Environmentalism.
PERSONAL NOTES
This label includes notes on my personal life and things happening around me personally.
POLITICS
This label includes articles about state and national politics, and the goings on of international or foreign government bodies and agencies.
SLIMEBALLS
This label includes stuff I found where people have behaved in despicable ways. I thought about migrating this to the heading of Weasel, hat tip to the author of Dilbert for the term.
But instead, I have decided to depreciate it.
In Geekspeak, this means that
while I won't immediately delete it,
I won't be using it any more.
TECHNOLOGY
This label includes,
As the banner on my blog reads:
Discussions of Technology, and How We Use or Misuse it.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
A Hollow Recovery amid Job Losses
This is coming out a bit late (OK, very late), and will mark a change in my efforts to regularly forecast the economic climate. Future articles will be shorter and address only one or another item.
Optimistic chatter from Washington and Wall Street is counter balanced by the reality that job losses, and especially manufacturing job losses, are killing the American Dream. This seems to be a continuation of the last few months. There is a (well thought out) theory afloat that the recovery will be in phases, but not really recovery - Change.
There is more about job losses here. And here: look specifically at "US manufacturing statistics" and then realise that this was written in 2005 - before the collapse.
Some time ago (July), when some of the brain-dead-heads in Washington (and some in NYC) were talking about the recession being over, the smarter people on Wall Street were saying it is too early. It still is.
Among the economic indicators I watch Baltic shipping index (third graph) is beginning to show the "W" shape that I mentioned in last month's update.
Two things that few people are talking about are dragging the economy, and preventing any real recovery. One is the addiction to foreign oil. While we are still importing 70% of our oil, and still not investing much in the way of new supplies or even new refineries, China is buying up future oil production, which will again push oil prices sky high. (About $20 - $40 a year increases) As Pickens says: "China has a plan," Pickens said. "We don’t."
The other drag on the economy is the previously mentioned manufacturing job losses. While the brain-dead-heads in Washington keep measuring the service sector, as if consumption will make us rich, we keep exporting our manufacturing jobs overseas. The pundits on Wall Street keep talking about a "jobless recovery," which means if the economy recovers at all, it will again be a hollow economy. I specifically remember, some years ago, one Caterpillar May (stock owner) telling me how good it is for the US to have free trade with China, since that would lead to them buying equipment from US. Now, after we pumped billions into the Chinese economy (some of which they loaned us this past year to stabilise our financial sector) they have built their own manufacturing facilities and are building machines they used to buy from US.
More about the jobless recovery here. And a quick quote from it:
Although I can't find the reference right now, the real jobless rate, including people who have given up on finding a job, and those who don't qualify for unemployment is close to 17%.
Also, late breaking: China is going to be building Hummers
(Just a note that this does not affect the production of the US Army HMMWV)
There is a comical picture of our economic dilemma showing that we are counting on the unemployed to bail us out.
So, if things are so bad, why are the market numbers looking pretty good? Well, two things are in play, inflating the numbers. One is the constant pumping of extra money into the economy, mainly by way of low interest rates. The "Fed" has indicated that the current interest rate, which is indistinguishable from zero, and has been for almost a year. (Also found here)
But all this extra grease on the wheels of the economy has had a downside. The dollar has been declining for some months now, pushing up prices of commodities (like oil and gold) balancing the deflation in the economy. Of course, with material costs rising and finished goods remaining the same, the workers are obviously absorbing the loss. (also here)
As an ironic twist, some employers are pretending to have a hard time finding qualified workers. I say pretending, because they obviously are complaining that qualified applicants are taking the better paying jobs (or better work environment), and the complainers are the ones that can't get the workers.
Gold, trend lines are still rocketing upwards, and gold will be over priced for some time, unless one takes the demise of the dollar very seriously. But I don't think it will collapse entirely, since Obama's handlers in the far east (remember, the debtor is servant to the lender) want to keep it afloat.
So, What Now?
Because, as I mentioned above, the "Fed" is planning to keep interest rates low for at least another year, I will no longer be doing this article monthly, as I have been. Even thought the "markets" will seem to recover (good if you have mutual funds) the real economy will not recover for many many more months, if it recovers at all.
What to do in the mean time?
Keep working - if you have a job. Don't be afraid to take on any work that comes your way if you don't. Times will be hard for many years, and the line of work you want may never come your way again. Learn new skills. Everybody should have at least two (unrelated) job skills.
If you have money (if you can afford cable TV), buy tools for survival, in case the worst happens. And make sure you know how to use them. If you are no good with tools, you might have to barter - and find someone who has the skill.
Do not let your love grow cold. Now, to be clear, when the Bible talks about love, it is an action verb. To be specific, Love equals charity, in fact, if you look at an Old English dictionary, you will see they are synonyms. Love is a call to action.
And one last thought: hunker down. It is going to be a long and bumpy ride.
Optimistic chatter from Washington and Wall Street is counter balanced by the reality that job losses, and especially manufacturing job losses, are killing the American Dream. This seems to be a continuation of the last few months. There is a (well thought out) theory afloat that the recovery will be in phases, but not really recovery - Change.
There is more about job losses here. And here: look specifically at "US manufacturing statistics" and then realise that this was written in 2005 - before the collapse.
Some time ago (July), when some of the brain-dead-heads in Washington (and some in NYC) were talking about the recession being over, the smarter people on Wall Street were saying it is too early. It still is.
Among the economic indicators I watch Baltic shipping index (third graph) is beginning to show the "W" shape that I mentioned in last month's update.
Two things that few people are talking about are dragging the economy, and preventing any real recovery. One is the addiction to foreign oil. While we are still importing 70% of our oil, and still not investing much in the way of new supplies or even new refineries, China is buying up future oil production, which will again push oil prices sky high. (About $20 - $40 a year increases) As Pickens says: "China has a plan," Pickens said. "We don’t."
The other drag on the economy is the previously mentioned manufacturing job losses. While the brain-dead-heads in Washington keep measuring the service sector, as if consumption will make us rich, we keep exporting our manufacturing jobs overseas. The pundits on Wall Street keep talking about a "jobless recovery," which means if the economy recovers at all, it will again be a hollow economy. I specifically remember, some years ago, one Caterpillar May (stock owner) telling me how good it is for the US to have free trade with China, since that would lead to them buying equipment from US. Now, after we pumped billions into the Chinese economy (some of which they loaned us this past year to stabilise our financial sector) they have built their own manufacturing facilities and are building machines they used to buy from US.
More about the jobless recovery here. And a quick quote from it:
(Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Job openings in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in at least nine years, signaling the economy hasn’t improved enough to prompt companies to take on more staff.)
Although I can't find the reference right now, the real jobless rate, including people who have given up on finding a job, and those who don't qualify for unemployment is close to 17%.
Also, late breaking: China is going to be building Hummers
(Just a note that this does not affect the production of the US Army HMMWV)
There is a comical picture of our economic dilemma showing that we are counting on the unemployed to bail us out.
So, if things are so bad, why are the market numbers looking pretty good? Well, two things are in play, inflating the numbers. One is the constant pumping of extra money into the economy, mainly by way of low interest rates. The "Fed" has indicated that the current interest rate, which is indistinguishable from zero, and has been for almost a year. (Also found here)
But all this extra grease on the wheels of the economy has had a downside. The dollar has been declining for some months now, pushing up prices of commodities (like oil and gold) balancing the deflation in the economy. Of course, with material costs rising and finished goods remaining the same, the workers are obviously absorbing the loss. (also here)
As an ironic twist, some employers are pretending to have a hard time finding qualified workers. I say pretending, because they obviously are complaining that qualified applicants are taking the better paying jobs (or better work environment), and the complainers are the ones that can't get the workers.
Gold, trend lines are still rocketing upwards, and gold will be over priced for some time, unless one takes the demise of the dollar very seriously. But I don't think it will collapse entirely, since Obama's handlers in the far east (remember, the debtor is servant to the lender) want to keep it afloat.
So, What Now?
Because, as I mentioned above, the "Fed" is planning to keep interest rates low for at least another year, I will no longer be doing this article monthly, as I have been. Even thought the "markets" will seem to recover (good if you have mutual funds) the real economy will not recover for many many more months, if it recovers at all.
What to do in the mean time?
Keep working - if you have a job. Don't be afraid to take on any work that comes your way if you don't. Times will be hard for many years, and the line of work you want may never come your way again. Learn new skills. Everybody should have at least two (unrelated) job skills.
If you have money (if you can afford cable TV), buy tools for survival, in case the worst happens. And make sure you know how to use them. If you are no good with tools, you might have to barter - and find someone who has the skill.
Do not let your love grow cold. Now, to be clear, when the Bible talks about love, it is an action verb. To be specific, Love equals charity, in fact, if you look at an Old English dictionary, you will see they are synonyms. Love is a call to action.
And one last thought: hunker down. It is going to be a long and bumpy ride.
Saturday, October 03, 2009
My New (used) Truck
I actually began this subject with my rant against the Consumer Reports 2007 used car buyer's guide. The reviewer of all of the smaller trucks had a bad attitude, as was evidenced by their consistent belittling of small trucks.
I recently bought a Chevy Colorado. The Consumer Reports (this link subject to change) reviewer said the four cylinder engine in the Colorado was "crude and noisy." I do not find that to be true, but I will say the transmission tends to shift into overdrive and engage the lock at too low speed. It also seems to like first gear too much. At 1500 RPM in first, it is traveling about 12 mph, and does not want to shift into second. At 46 mph, it shifts into overdrive (and the lock engages at any speed over 35), which again puts you at 1500 rpm - but with about 6 times the torque output. There is a slight, but noticeable engine vibration. I doubt this is what the reviewer was referring to (really can't figure out what he is complaining about), but a switch to prevent it from going into overdrive, or just adjusting it to shift to overdrive only at higher speed would fix this.
The Consumer Reports reviewer seemed to think that anything with less than rocket like acceleration was underpowered, but this truck has plenty of power for daily use. And that is what it is meant for. There are heavier and more powerful trucks on the market, for jobs that need heavier and more powerful trucks (my job, as an equipment maintenance person requires something heavy duty, but I drive a corporate truck for that). What I need is something that is economical. This truck gets fairly good mileage, but not as good as my 95 Isuzu. And not as good as an economy car. And the tires will be a bit more expensive to maintain. But overall, it isn't too bad.
Anyway, at this point, my biggest complaint (other than it is going to cost more to drive) is that I can't get the dome light to come on without the key in the ignition.
I recently bought a Chevy Colorado. The Consumer Reports (this link subject to change) reviewer said the four cylinder engine in the Colorado was "crude and noisy." I do not find that to be true, but I will say the transmission tends to shift into overdrive and engage the lock at too low speed. It also seems to like first gear too much. At 1500 RPM in first, it is traveling about 12 mph, and does not want to shift into second. At 46 mph, it shifts into overdrive (and the lock engages at any speed over 35), which again puts you at 1500 rpm - but with about 6 times the torque output. There is a slight, but noticeable engine vibration. I doubt this is what the reviewer was referring to (really can't figure out what he is complaining about), but a switch to prevent it from going into overdrive, or just adjusting it to shift to overdrive only at higher speed would fix this.
The Consumer Reports reviewer seemed to think that anything with less than rocket like acceleration was underpowered, but this truck has plenty of power for daily use. And that is what it is meant for. There are heavier and more powerful trucks on the market, for jobs that need heavier and more powerful trucks (my job, as an equipment maintenance person requires something heavy duty, but I drive a corporate truck for that). What I need is something that is economical. This truck gets fairly good mileage, but not as good as my 95 Isuzu. And not as good as an economy car. And the tires will be a bit more expensive to maintain. But overall, it isn't too bad.
Anyway, at this point, my biggest complaint (other than it is going to cost more to drive) is that I can't get the dome light to come on without the key in the ignition.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
End of Quarter Roundup
I started doing quarterly roundups, instead of monthly, because I don't do enough blog entries on my blog to justify a monthly roundup. This quarter I started out strong, with a series of book reviews on Christianity in Crisis and followed with some stuff on economics and politics. In fact, for some months now, I have been doing a monthly economic article. Good Start.
But ultimately, between paying too much attention to national politics and some health problems (nothing I haven't had before), I have been neglecting what I should be doing with this blog. So, in the next three months, I hope to do more with Bible Studies and book reviews. And be seen less on other peoples blogs, talking about politics. If you look at my November Chronicles articles, you might see why.
Now, as in the past reviews, here are links to some articles that generated comments, followed by some stuff I got involved in on a couple other blogs, and lastly, a list of article numbers on Combat Effective that are of interest.
Sotomayor Unqualified
Bottoming out in the Recession
Other people's Blogs
Judges tend to evolve - badly.
Young people leaving their Churches
Pilgrim's Political Link
Biker Bubba's Thoughts On Palin Leaving the Governorship
Calvinism's author turns 500
Chiggers and other insects
Business Climate in Michigan is Icy
Unemployment in Michigan is growth business
List of article numbers of interest on Combat Effective.
I am too lazy to do full links to them, but
if you are really interested, I will coach on
how to get to the referenced pages.
3298 Blue Ray DVD players
3301 We now have two liberal parties
(republicans sent me a survey - w/ donation request)
3303 Can Blogs be killed by outlawing linking?
3304 Honduras, Clinton, Castro, and then Sotomayor
3305 on twitter and blogs (DW anti communist blog)
3306 the US has voted to be enslaved and impoverished
3309 bankrupting farmers, and corporate psychopaths
3310 Jury sees Rep. Jefferson taking a bribe
3312 Obama's pick for surgeon general
3313 Taxes and healthcare (and my little rant about it)
morphed into international finance
3314 Moon landing anniversary
3315 the coming war of gog and magog
3316 various topics
3317 On the demise of News Papers
and rise of "free" media detailed discussions
3318 various topics
3293 Late breaking updates to:
Note to GOP - don't compare Obama to Putin
As a nation, we are hanging in the balance
Two bills, should they pass, will bankrupt us
3321 Fannie Mae Needs more money
3322 Long detailed discussion of Cash for Clunkers
including some comparison to Unabomber predictions
3323 Combat Rob and Wife Expecting a little one
3324 Consumer bankruptcies and Credit card defaults
3325 don't let news of economic recovery lure you into spending
3330 Are we bitter, or offended, at the corruption of the system
this was moved to forums
3331 will we, or our grandchildren, pick up the tab for this mess
3333 A Josef Goebbel's recovery
3340 Ghost Fleet of the Recession - ships parked near Singapore
3348 (administrative action) User Databases scrubbed
3349 Liberals want civility
3351 Criminally Insane escapes while on field trip
But ultimately, between paying too much attention to national politics and some health problems (nothing I haven't had before), I have been neglecting what I should be doing with this blog. So, in the next three months, I hope to do more with Bible Studies and book reviews. And be seen less on other peoples blogs, talking about politics. If you look at my November Chronicles articles, you might see why.
Now, as in the past reviews, here are links to some articles that generated comments, followed by some stuff I got involved in on a couple other blogs, and lastly, a list of article numbers on Combat Effective that are of interest.
Sotomayor Unqualified
Bottoming out in the Recession
Other people's Blogs
Judges tend to evolve - badly.
Young people leaving their Churches
Pilgrim's Political Link
Biker Bubba's Thoughts On Palin Leaving the Governorship
Calvinism's author turns 500
Chiggers and other insects
Business Climate in Michigan is Icy
Unemployment in Michigan is growth business
List of article numbers of interest on Combat Effective.
I am too lazy to do full links to them, but
if you are really interested, I will coach on
how to get to the referenced pages.
3298 Blue Ray DVD players
3301 We now have two liberal parties
(republicans sent me a survey - w/ donation request)
3303 Can Blogs be killed by outlawing linking?
3304 Honduras, Clinton, Castro, and then Sotomayor
3305 on twitter and blogs (DW anti communist blog)
3306 the US has voted to be enslaved and impoverished
3309 bankrupting farmers, and corporate psychopaths
3310 Jury sees Rep. Jefferson taking a bribe
3312 Obama's pick for surgeon general
3313 Taxes and healthcare (and my little rant about it)
morphed into international finance
3314 Moon landing anniversary
3315 the coming war of gog and magog
3316 various topics
3317 On the demise of News Papers
and rise of "free" media detailed discussions
3318 various topics
3293 Late breaking updates to:
Note to GOP - don't compare Obama to Putin
As a nation, we are hanging in the balance
Two bills, should they pass, will bankrupt us
3321 Fannie Mae Needs more money
3322 Long detailed discussion of Cash for Clunkers
including some comparison to Unabomber predictions
3323 Combat Rob and Wife Expecting a little one
3324 Consumer bankruptcies and Credit card defaults
3325 don't let news of economic recovery lure you into spending
3330 Are we bitter, or offended, at the corruption of the system
this was moved to forums
3331 will we, or our grandchildren, pick up the tab for this mess
3333 A Josef Goebbel's recovery
3340 Ghost Fleet of the Recession - ships parked near Singapore
3348 (administrative action) User Databases scrubbed
3349 Liberals want civility
3351 Criminally Insane escapes while on field trip
Monday, September 28, 2009
Iranian Nuclear Developement
This is interesting.
Voice of America uncovered it two years ago.
http://morningcoffee.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/iran-denies-existance-of-nuke-facility/
And now we have the proof.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0926/p02s05-usfp.html
Nice.
Voice of America uncovered it two years ago.
http://morningcoffee.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/iran-denies-existance-of-nuke-facility/
And now we have the proof.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0926/p02s05-usfp.html
Nice.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
Swine Flu is Back
With the start of the school year, the flu epidemic has renewed itself. Or epidemics. It seems there is more than one strain going around this year. And the government will have the vaccines out after the majority of the threat is passed.
At least the schools seem to be less panicky. Now they are sending individual students home instead of closing schools. There has to be a point, though, at which the school gets closed. Some studies I have read indicate that when 1% of the students have been infected, it is time to close the schools. I haven't seen any plans like that, this time.
The bottom line is: we must depend on ourselves.
What I have said about this in the past still stands.
April 29 swine-flu
May 1 swine-flu-2
May 4 swine-flu-3-panic-and-stupidity
May 15 swine-flu-from-panic-to-forgotten
At least the schools seem to be less panicky. Now they are sending individual students home instead of closing schools. There has to be a point, though, at which the school gets closed. Some studies I have read indicate that when 1% of the students have been infected, it is time to close the schools. I haven't seen any plans like that, this time.
The bottom line is: we must depend on ourselves.
What I have said about this in the past still stands.
April 29 swine-flu
May 1 swine-flu-2
May 4 swine-flu-3-panic-and-stupidity
May 15 swine-flu-from-panic-to-forgotten
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
the economy does a W?
While there are some who think the recession may be about over and Obama my be able to take credit, I disagree.
In fact, even while that was being written, a correction was getting underway. Within hours, the S&P was back under 1000. the price of crude and gasoline dropped, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds was back under 1%.
Nothing, of course, is cut and dryad.
"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." (John Maynard Keys).
Much of the problems of the economy is hidden beneath the surface. There is a backlog of real estate in the foreclosure process that rivals the size of all the houses currently on the market today. Consumers are racking up massive credit card debt, and job losses are still mounting up, meaning that a mountain of credit card defaults are just around the corner. (numbers you may have heard - accompanied by rosy narrative that things are getting better, are a farce - the situation is just getting worse more slowly.)
In addition, the banks have been hiding weaknesses (this is in addition to the weakness caused by NOT foreclosing on delinquent accounts) through a technique called Mark to Market accounting. This is where they can estimate their holdings to be worth more than what they really are worth.
One person I should have been reading some years ago, Bill Fleckenstein predicted much of this, years before it happened. He says this is just a continuation of the bubble collapse of 2001.
What me may be facing in the next few months is a second "bottoming" of the economy, with more job losses. More market contraction. More losses in equity of most commodities. Instead of a V shaped economic chart, it will look more like a W. The Great Depression was not all one long depressed economy, but rather 3 or 4 (depending on how you look at it) serious recessions. That was GD1, and this is shaping up to be GD2, and we will likely see a round of high inflation somewhere in the mix. Or something that just looks like inflation.
Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets together with the Obama administration’s "cash-for- clunkers" program and tax credits for first-time homebuyers are reviving demand. Factories and builders, which have accounted for half of all the jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, may keep growing in coming months as sales rise.
In fact, even while that was being written, a correction was getting underway. Within hours, the S&P was back under 1000. the price of crude and gasoline dropped, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds was back under 1%.
Nothing, of course, is cut and dryad.
"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." (John Maynard Keys).
Much of the problems of the economy is hidden beneath the surface. There is a backlog of real estate in the foreclosure process that rivals the size of all the houses currently on the market today. Consumers are racking up massive credit card debt, and job losses are still mounting up, meaning that a mountain of credit card defaults are just around the corner. (numbers you may have heard - accompanied by rosy narrative that things are getting better, are a farce - the situation is just getting worse more slowly.)
In addition, the banks have been hiding weaknesses (this is in addition to the weakness caused by NOT foreclosing on delinquent accounts) through a technique called Mark to Market accounting. This is where they can estimate their holdings to be worth more than what they really are worth.
One person I should have been reading some years ago, Bill Fleckenstein predicted much of this, years before it happened. He says this is just a continuation of the bubble collapse of 2001.
What me may be facing in the next few months is a second "bottoming" of the economy, with more job losses. More market contraction. More losses in equity of most commodities. Instead of a V shaped economic chart, it will look more like a W. The Great Depression was not all one long depressed economy, but rather 3 or 4 (depending on how you look at it) serious recessions. That was GD1, and this is shaping up to be GD2, and we will likely see a round of high inflation somewhere in the mix. Or something that just looks like inflation.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
being taught to be un-American
Business (and Government) team up, from time to time to teach people to trust in Big Brother and to not have do anything for ourselves.
Clark Howard has an article this month about employees who have been fired for interfering with robbers or shoplifters. Of course, the store is worried about being sued. Of course this is because the legal system is no longer interested in truth, justice or liberty. It has become only interested in refining the combative skills of the players (the attornies).
And judges are instrumental in making this so. In some cases, legal action has been brought by the government for pointing out that a particular action is unconstitutional.
Clark Howard has an article this month about employees who have been fired for interfering with robbers or shoplifters. Of course, the store is worried about being sued. Of course this is because the legal system is no longer interested in truth, justice or liberty. It has become only interested in refining the combative skills of the players (the attornies).
And judges are instrumental in making this so. In some cases, legal action has been brought by the government for pointing out that a particular action is unconstitutional.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
bottoming out in the recession
This is a continuation of my monthly economic outlook summary. Previous economic discussion can be found by looking down the right hand side of your screen until you see "economics" and clicking on that link.
The interest rate the "fed" charges banks for overnight borrowing is so close to zero, that it is almost impossible to measure.
One of the few things Obama has done right in this stimulus stuff (and I will give credit where credit is due) is the "cash for clunkers." While it was in the Senate, both parties backed it. It has done pretty well in the first few days, and of course, now the Republicans want to kill it. Politics.
We seem to have hit bottom on this economic collapse. Maybe.
Leading indicators, such as the Baltic Shipping (global) Rail Shipping (US) and Short term interest rates all give a pretty good picture of reaching the bottom.
The road back up will be long, slow, arduous, and fraught with danger of setbacks (just as this collapse was a setback on the road to recovery from the dot-com bust. Also, I heard this morning that Japan is having trouble recovering because their industry has been hollowed out by outsourcing. (On the flip side, China Manufacturing index is way up - you do the math).
However, both oil and gas are up, not to mention the rise in the minimum wage. These will be a headwind for the economy to overcome. The stock market, the housing market (except in a few places) and the price of gold are all up slightly - but these could all go up and down two or three times in the next few months. Remember "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keys). If you want to win at the stock market, I am not your teacher.
One note on the markets that may make gold look a little more useful as a hedge against inflation, Two to five years from now, we should be looking at a pretty massive inflation rate. If the inflation rate is as high as I think it will be, it will make the current bond interest rate negative (less than inflation). This could make gold look pretty good, but you still have to get around the exchange, storage and security costs - therefore I still cannot recommend it.
A final note:
I just heard Robert Crandall (Jul 3rd, on the Kudlow report) say that "consumers are 70% of the US economy."
Folks, this is just plain wrong. We would be better off if we didn't even look at the consumption side of the economy at all. All it is is funny money.
UPDATE: Well, the one bright spot in the stimulus programs has been tarnished. Seems the government can't get even the simple things right. Worse than "offsetting some of the benefits," these delays will cause the burden to fall on small independant dealerships - a critical part of the backbone of our econmy. I have written more on Combat Effective.
The interest rate the "fed" charges banks for overnight borrowing is so close to zero, that it is almost impossible to measure.
One of the few things Obama has done right in this stimulus stuff (and I will give credit where credit is due) is the "cash for clunkers." While it was in the Senate, both parties backed it. It has done pretty well in the first few days, and of course, now the Republicans want to kill it. Politics.
We seem to have hit bottom on this economic collapse. Maybe.
Leading indicators, such as the Baltic Shipping (global) Rail Shipping (US) and Short term interest rates all give a pretty good picture of reaching the bottom.
The road back up will be long, slow, arduous, and fraught with danger of setbacks (just as this collapse was a setback on the road to recovery from the dot-com bust. Also, I heard this morning that Japan is having trouble recovering because their industry has been hollowed out by outsourcing. (On the flip side, China Manufacturing index is way up - you do the math).
However, both oil and gas are up, not to mention the rise in the minimum wage. These will be a headwind for the economy to overcome. The stock market, the housing market (except in a few places) and the price of gold are all up slightly - but these could all go up and down two or three times in the next few months. Remember "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keys). If you want to win at the stock market, I am not your teacher.
One note on the markets that may make gold look a little more useful as a hedge against inflation, Two to five years from now, we should be looking at a pretty massive inflation rate. If the inflation rate is as high as I think it will be, it will make the current bond interest rate negative (less than inflation). This could make gold look pretty good, but you still have to get around the exchange, storage and security costs - therefore I still cannot recommend it.
A final note:
I just heard Robert Crandall (Jul 3rd, on the Kudlow report) say that "consumers are 70% of the US economy."
Folks, this is just plain wrong. We would be better off if we didn't even look at the consumption side of the economy at all. All it is is funny money.
UPDATE: Well, the one bright spot in the stimulus programs has been tarnished. Seems the government can't get even the simple things right. Worse than "offsetting some of the benefits," these delays will cause the burden to fall on small independant dealerships - a critical part of the backbone of our econmy. I have written more on Combat Effective.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Book Review 2 - Christianity in Crisis
As a refresher, here is the same intro I used before, or you can skip down about
a half dozen lines or so to get to the new stuff.
This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have read. A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
My review of the beginning of this book is here.
Well, I finally got to the end of this book, and as I said before, it gets a little slow as you get towards the middle, but as you pass the middle Mr. Hangraaff begins showing both the theological errors promoted by the prosperity preachers (which he calls faith teachers), but also shows the contrasting theology of the Bible, when the Bible is read in context.
As you approach the end of the book, I found that I slowed down, so that I wouldn't miss any of the good stuff. He shows how to conduct your Christian studies to resist the heretics. Not just the prosperity preachers, but any other heretics that come your way.
From the Bible (read in context: Matt 7:13-29):
"Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves."
He gets into quite a bit of detail, and while I do not agree with ALL of his theology, he and I agree on the major points. In addition, the last several chapters are devoted to methods of worship and prayer and study - to inoculate yourself against these heretics. One of the highlights of this part of the book is his use of "acrostics." These are like acronyms, but are used as learning tools. For instance he uses the acrostic "M-A-P-S" for Manuscripts, Archeology, Prophesy, and Scriptural Synergy. This is one of the facets of learning to defend the faith, when non-believers come calling.
a half dozen lines or so to get to the new stuff.
This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have read. A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
My review of the beginning of this book is here.
Well, I finally got to the end of this book, and as I said before, it gets a little slow as you get towards the middle, but as you pass the middle Mr. Hangraaff begins showing both the theological errors promoted by the prosperity preachers (which he calls faith teachers), but also shows the contrasting theology of the Bible, when the Bible is read in context.
As you approach the end of the book, I found that I slowed down, so that I wouldn't miss any of the good stuff. He shows how to conduct your Christian studies to resist the heretics. Not just the prosperity preachers, but any other heretics that come your way.
From the Bible (read in context: Matt 7:13-29):
"Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves."
He gets into quite a bit of detail, and while I do not agree with ALL of his theology, he and I agree on the major points. In addition, the last several chapters are devoted to methods of worship and prayer and study - to inoculate yourself against these heretics. One of the highlights of this part of the book is his use of "acrostics." These are like acronyms, but are used as learning tools. For instance he uses the acrostic "M-A-P-S" for Manuscripts, Archeology, Prophesy, and Scriptural Synergy. This is one of the facets of learning to defend the faith, when non-believers come calling.
Monday, July 27, 2009
annual gas price forecast
As promised, here are my annual gas price forecasts. While I did blow it last year, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 6 years, and the one time I did blow it, if they did follow my advice by living very frugally, no harm should have come from it.
The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.22 early next May.
The ever increasing role of China, the recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will mostly cancel out the other two, leaving the economics in balance. A slow increase in consumption, coupled with some optimism in the markets, and a steadily increasing cost of production seem to be the prime factors in driving up the cost in the next several months.
Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $68 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$2.68 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.18 per gallon.
I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the prices have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use. But this year, I don't think those need be applied.
some optimism in the markets (I don't agree)
why I think economic forecasts may be overly optimistic
Bernanke Says
A Jobless Recovery - but with extra pain.
The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.22 early next May.
The ever increasing role of China, the recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will mostly cancel out the other two, leaving the economics in balance. A slow increase in consumption, coupled with some optimism in the markets, and a steadily increasing cost of production seem to be the prime factors in driving up the cost in the next several months.
Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $68 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$2.68 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.18 per gallon.
I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the prices have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use. But this year, I don't think those need be applied.
some optimism in the markets (I don't agree)
why I think economic forecasts may be overly optimistic
Bernanke Says
A Jobless Recovery - but with extra pain.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Consumer Reports disappointment
Early this year I started looking for a new (used) truck to replace the 1995 Isuzu P'up I have been driving for the past 9 years or so. One of the steps I took, to research the market, I bought a copy of Consumer Reports (2008 edition, I think). After looking through some of the write-ups, I can see one of the problems we are facing in personal transportation.
I am looking for, ideally, a small pickup with an extended cab, a 4 cylinder engine, and an automatic transmission. I thought, with the ever increasing cost of gas a few years ago (and I think someone like consumer reports would have some foresight) they would have some focus on gas mileage. No, not at all. There is a mention of mileage on only one model.
No, instead, the write ups for all small trucks read like a spoiled teenager wrote them. 4 cylinder engines are to be disdained. All pickups seem to lack horse power, which seems to be a big issue. They drive like trucks (duh), stiff and choppy. Well, dang, they are trucks. They all seem to have "inferior brakes" (I guess he is comparing them to his sports car).
And it isn't just trucks that read like a spoiled teenager. I happen to own a Hyundai Accent. Nice car, but too many bells and whistles under the hood. So I looked it up. "Back seat too small for tall people." You don't say. It IS a subcompact. "Look for a model with the optional power steering, a must have feature." WHAT! Is this guy on drugs or something? Must have? On a subcompact? My truck doesn't have a power steering.
This guy needs to be stuck behind the wheel of my old Deuce and a Half (M35) army truck for a while.
As I alluded to in the beginning of this article, this is symptomatic of the problems we, as a nation, face in personal transportation. We keep adding bells and whistles to our cars and trucks. Each and every one of these costs extra on the price of the vehicle and almost all of them cost money every time we fill up at the pump. Also, deluded by the temporary availability of cheap petroleum, we almost completely replaced the Light Utility Vehicle (named after the Chevy LUV) class of vehicles with sporty indulgences that are in many ways play-toys that look like small pickup trucks.
I am looking for, ideally, a small pickup with an extended cab, a 4 cylinder engine, and an automatic transmission. I thought, with the ever increasing cost of gas a few years ago (and I think someone like consumer reports would have some foresight) they would have some focus on gas mileage. No, not at all. There is a mention of mileage on only one model.
No, instead, the write ups for all small trucks read like a spoiled teenager wrote them. 4 cylinder engines are to be disdained. All pickups seem to lack horse power, which seems to be a big issue. They drive like trucks (duh), stiff and choppy. Well, dang, they are trucks. They all seem to have "inferior brakes" (I guess he is comparing them to his sports car).
And it isn't just trucks that read like a spoiled teenager. I happen to own a Hyundai Accent. Nice car, but too many bells and whistles under the hood. So I looked it up. "Back seat too small for tall people." You don't say. It IS a subcompact. "Look for a model with the optional power steering, a must have feature." WHAT! Is this guy on drugs or something? Must have? On a subcompact? My truck doesn't have a power steering.
This guy needs to be stuck behind the wheel of my old Deuce and a Half (M35) army truck for a while.
As I alluded to in the beginning of this article, this is symptomatic of the problems we, as a nation, face in personal transportation. We keep adding bells and whistles to our cars and trucks. Each and every one of these costs extra on the price of the vehicle and almost all of them cost money every time we fill up at the pump. Also, deluded by the temporary availability of cheap petroleum, we almost completely replaced the Light Utility Vehicle (named after the Chevy LUV) class of vehicles with sporty indulgences that are in many ways play-toys that look like small pickup trucks.
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