The next recession may be starting now

Well, it looks as if the next downturn may be already beginning. There has been a perceptible slowdown in worldwide manufacturing and that is translating itself into visible numbers.  Gas, oil and copper prices falling. And employment numbers weakening (or down, depending on which numbers you look at).

Since December 2012, private industries paying up to about $14.50 an hour have added, on net, 972,000 nonsupervisory jobs with an average workweek of a mere 17.7 hours, an IBD analysis finds.

That doesn't mean new employees are being hired for such few hours. Rather, it reflects a combination of reduced hours in existing jobs and short workweeks for newly created jobs.

Overall, in these low-wage industries which employ 30 million rank-and-file workers, the average workweek shrank to 27.3 hours per week in July, an IBD analysis shows. That's the shortest workweek on record, except for this past February, when mid-month blizzards wreaked havoc during the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey week.

The conventional wisdom among economists is that there's been no apparent shift to part-time work and that ObamaCare's employer mandate hasn't led to shorter workweeks.

But shorter hours clocked by nonmanagers in low-wage industries are being obscured because the rest of the workforce is now clocking a longer average workweek than even before the recession started.

For low-wage industry workers, on the other hand, the recovery in the workweek from a then-record low 27.5 hours in mid-2009 began to reverse in the latter half of 2012, and it's been pretty much all downhill since then.

Evidence points to ObamaCare as an important factor in the shrinking workweek.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/economy/090514-716193-worst-job-stat-keeps-getting-worse.htm#ixzz3D8npd64y
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook

 I am a bit disappointed we didn't get that year of prosperity I forecast last year, but it looks as though we may be in for a rough time in the next few years.

There are some good tidbits.  Or maybe "not so bad" tidbits.  With prices down, if you do have a job, there is no time like the present to be stocking up on things you will need to ride out the next few years.  Of course, if you are one of the millions who have fallen victim to Obama's policies and are now out of work, you will be struggling just to survive in the not too distant future.

A return to blogging - the Economy

Well, I have been away from this blog for some time, but now I think I will post some updates on economics and a few assorted other subjects.

In the past couple of years there have been a series of financial crisis in Europe and the US, most of which have twin roots going back to the worldwide financial collapse of 2008.  At least 5 countries in Europe required bail outs. The most notable were Greece (which required $10B and bondholders got stuck with bonds worth 30% of face value)and Cypress (which cause a panic that closed the banks for weeks).

In the US, Stockton California and Detroit come to mind as having declared bankruptcy, although there have been a lot of small ones too. 

The "Fed," over the past several years has injected money into the world financial systems at the rate of nearly $1000B dollars a year for almost all of the past 5 years, and while there is talk of slowing down the injection of money, there is no talk of ending it.  We don't know when inflation will kick in, but about 1/3 of the total US Federal budget is now made up of borrowed money.  This has hidden what would have been a spiraling deflation that would have been ruinous to the country, but it is still ruinous to the nation.  Most of the working class today makes about $2 an hour less than they did 5 years ago, if they have a job at all.  The official unemployment rate is totally bogus, the real rate is about 20%.  If you don't see that where you live, you are fortunate.  Detroit is not fortunate.

This year, people learned a new word.  Sequester.  That is where you keep spending more and more on your entertainment budget, but in order to pretend to save money, you don't put gas in your truck (so now you can't go to work). 

A word no one has learned has cropped up in certain small circles of the "learned." Catabolic collapse.
It basically refers to the tendency of a civilization to build infrastructure until it cannot sustain the effort to maintain that infrastructure.

Our financial structure is a house of cards.  Monetary bubbles upon monetary bubbles.  If it collapses slowly, it will simply leave multiple generations, starting with the oldest, in financial ruin.  It will go from generation to generation, bankrupting millions of people until there is only the miserable poor and the very upper class.

If it collapses suddenly, it will erupt into violence and civil war with no clear cut battle lines and no winners.  It will evolve into anarchy and chaos.  Will we ever emerge?  Many think so, most preppers think so.  I don't really think so.

Well, that is all today.  I will write more in the days to come.

Where Is Bible Prophesy Found?

Many, when asked about Biblical Prophesy, turn immediately to Revelation (I have had one or two turn immediately to sources outside the Bible). Or maybe to Matthew or Luke.  But, as I have said before, Prophesy is found in nearly every book of the Bible, and to really understand prophesy, you need to have an understanding that encompass all of the Biblical Prophesies, and almost all of them start in the Old Testament.

As a matter of fact, there may be more prophesy in the Book of Daniel than in any other book besides Revelation.  While not as pivotal as Joel, Daniel briefly outlines the kingdoms to come on Earth from his
own day until the Second Coming of Christ. In these prophesies, we are in the ten toes of the kingdom
of iron mixed with clay. 

Joel says an army, the size and fearsomeness never before seen, nor will there every be seen again, attacks Israel out of the North.  While he is talking, in the short term, of the Assyrian Army, led by General Sennacherib. But the reality fits the prophesy, only partially.  He describes an army of, (to my mind), helicopters, making a noise in the mountain tops.  This prophesy is expanded on, in Ezekiel 38, to show that in some future day, Russia and Persia will come from the North with an Army of amazing size, attempting to plunder the wealth of Israel. 

This is the War of Gog and Magog that many in prophesy circles have been talking about for the past several decades.  But if you look closely, there are parts of this prophesy that are not yet ready to come to pass.  Israel is not yet a nation of unwalled cities, with wealth and security to live in peace among its neighbors.  There has to be something that happens before. 

Another war is found In prophecy, in Psalms 83.  Many didn't realize, until recently, that Psalm 83 is a prophesy of a war to come.  It talks of the destruction of Damascus.  A destruction that will leave the city uninhabitable.  Well there have been wars there, but none have left the city uninhabitable.  This is still in the future.  Right now, the governments in that region are playing with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons that may finish this prophesy, and indeed leave that city in ruin.

I do have to point out though, that at least one prophesy author I read regularly says 'no way will
the Psalm 83 war come within the next several months.'  I will have to look closer at why he says that.

You must have a foundational knowledge of the Bible, in order to truly understand the Revelation.

Most people, and even many Christians, have no foundation knowledge with which to understand it.  Also, those who capitalize on ignorance of prophesy seek to obfuscate the meaning of much of Revelation. Nothing has really changed, as 2nd Peter and Jude both warn about those who will sneak into the Church (the wording used is like "through the side door") and Jesus said there would be false Gospels preached, until the workers (angels) come at the harvest and throw the false teachers into the fire.

As a very basic introduction to Revelation, the first three chapters can be thought of as history (actually we are in the last half of chapter 3) and from chapter 4 vs 1 onward, can be thought of as future.

Often, however, I will refer to chapters 6 and 7, when discussing current events.  This is because I believe God will allow small versions of those things to happen in our day, as a warning of what is to come. These are precursors, or foreshadowing of future events.

The events I am referring to are the generically known as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, although there are actually seven seals to be opened, and the "Four Horsemen are just the beginning.  They begin (he went out to conquer) with a conventional War.  Then to a general lack of peace anywhere on the Earth, with people killing one another (this or its precursor may be Islam, with a symbol of a great sword), and moves on to famine.  In any situation where there is a general breakdown of civilization, there will be damage to agriculture, as has been happening anywhere Islam (and sometimes communism) exerts itself.

I should note here that while there is a lot of disagreement over the exact interpretation of "do not harm the oil and the wine," the only disagreement over the interpretation of the rest of verse 6 is due to ignorance of what the verse actually says. "A quart of wheat" is enough food to feed one laborer for one day.  And a "denarious" is one day's pay for a laborer.

Today, the world sees local famines here and there, almost always caused by political strife, but in the not too distant future, there will be general shortages of food around the world.  Then we will see something like what this verse describes.

I often have people ask me if some disaster or another is the beginning of the end, and I tell them, "No. When you begin to see disasters that kill over a million people at a time, then you might be seeing the end."  In reality, God is not required to give us any warnings, but in the past He sent warnings before destroying one nation or another, so I would expect He will follow the same pattern today.

The Forth Horseman (pale horse, is literally the color of dead flesh) is death, or more accurately, he has with him, Death and Hades (literally, the grave).  He is to kill one forth of the earth's population.  Currently that means he will kill well over a billion people. And if our understanding of the Great Tribulation timeline is correct, this will happen across a period of a few months.

And while these things are beginning, a dictatorial government and a religion rise up to enslave all of mankind.  The religious leader and the head of the government will do great things that will deceive almost everyone into believing they are worthy of worship.  All of mankind are told they must worship this government and this religion, or they will not be able to buy or sell.  Much like our socialist insecurity system today, but with the addition that they will actively hunt down and kill anyone defying them.

And then things get bad. 

Prepping, if done right, is Politically Incorrect

While it can be shown, logically, that being a prepper is a responsible and mature response to the realities of this world, "sadly, it appears that being a 'prepper' is now enough to get special attention from the authorities."  That quote and the following excerpt are from an article on World View Weekend.
(about halfway through the article)
Why are preppers hated so much

On Thursday last week, no less than 150 armed and militarized police and FBI agents in he guise of tactical assault teams descended on Porter's house as if they were confronting a terrorist cell. The raid also included helicopters, SWAT crews, armored vehicles and even excavation equipment.

Porter was absent at the time of the raid but turned himself in the next morning at Hagerstown Barrack.

After the raid, the claim that Porter was stockpiling "10-15 machine gun-style firearms" was demolished when police uncovered "four shotguns, a .30-30-caliber rifle and two .22-caliber rifles," hardly a deadly mass arsenal.

Would 150 officers have shown up at his home if he had not been identified as a "prepper"?

Of course not.

So why are preppers hated so much?

It is because they are a direct challenge to the status quo. Just by prepping, preppers are proclaiming that they do not have faith in the system. But most people have complete and total faith in the system, and many of them do not like to have that faith questioned.

All of this, I would say leads to the conclusion that OPSEC is the order of the day. Be careful who you talk to about preparations and under no circumstances allow yourself, personally, to be exposed on TV or radio.

Possible Scenarios - or - What Could Possibly Go Wrong...

There are, basically, three primary things that could go wrong in the US.  These are the things we prepare for. Loss of transportation, loss of electric power, and civil unrest. (If you can think of anything else, let me know)

Generally, these things are not root causes.  An Epidemic or Midwest Earthquake could shut down transportation.   A Solar storm, major hurricane or nuclear detonation could shut down the electric power grid.  Some portions of the government are currently trying to precipitate civil unrest, to be used as a pretext to their tyrannical desires. They could succeed, or ethnic insanity could simply get out of hand, or some disaster could cause civil unrest.

The end result is pretty much the same.  Those who are prepared will have it much better than those who are not.

God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).
 
Food for thought (or "more ramblings") about
Considerations that we may have previously overlooked

Much of what we are stockpiling has an expiration date, and much of what is written about prepping has to do with getting started, or the end game.  What if we don't see the end game for several years?

We (especially those of us, like me, past the halfway point in life) need to be thinking beyond ourselves.  What if our preps outlive us?  What if the SHTF and our friends, neighbors, relatives, or kids need our help?  Charity cannot be forgotten.  Sometimes, in a crisis, you might have to help a stranger, even if it is passing food or water across a fence or other defensive fortification, so that they have a chance to live too. (You might want to remember this expression, Ask and you shall receive, but you loot, and we shoot.)

I highly recommend anyone stockpiling to do their storage planning and inventories early, and to include expiration planning on everything they store.  The main difference between a prepper and a hoarder, is their inventory control.  The prepper knows what he has, why, and how long it is good for.

Some guy named Selco writes for a SHTF School.  One of the things he says about Americans is we place too much emphasis on beans, not enough on band-aids.  Of course, his being a medic by trade may have something to do with it, or the fact that he saw people die from run of the mill infections, during the Siege of Sarajevo (1992).

Unless you can cover yourself for extended periods of unemployment, in conjunction with unemployment of friends or family, you need to keep a reverse strategy in mind for any preps you put money into.  This means knowing where you can sell silver or ammo, and knowing which food you can eat first, to save on groceries while unemployed.

If someone is talking about the "end of fiat currency" and that after the meltdown we will "go back to using gold and silver" to trade with, forget listening to them.  Any and all currency is only worth something if someone is willing to take it in exchange for food, shelter or clothing. That includes gold or silver.  Selco (see above) said that during the Siege, the only thing gold would get you is killed.  What did they use for currency?  Canned food, especially corned beef, and small bottles of liquor were common. Cigarettes, and various niceties that you take for granted every day.

In the years after a collapse, if things ever return to "normal," there will again be currency.  If you make it to then.  But in the years of the collapse, materials and skills needed to live day to day will be the currency.

Coming Famines and Epidemics

In the past, everyone worried about how much oil or other forms of energy (primarily fossil fuels) would be available from the earth.  This is no longer a worry, but there is the question of whether the governments of the earth will allow us to have it.  The technology and known resources exist to sustain us for at least 40 years.  And at a pretty reasonable cost (not like we remember it, but not bad). 

The real problem will be food.

The world population has just hit the 7 billion person mark, up from 6 billion twelve years ago. The world adds 75 million each year.  Back around twelve years ago, someone asked me how many people I thought  the world could support, and I told them about 1 or 2 billion.  They said I was wrong, as the world already had 6 billion.  I just smiled at them and walked away.  I don't think they got it.  Our days were numbered, even then.  At this point, I think maybe 3 billion, but no where near 7 billion. Anyone remember "Soylant Green"?  Now would be a good time to take another look at that movie.  It isn't far off.


Currently there is plenty of food, and only scattered reports of famine along a line from Congo to Indonesia.  This could be deceptive, as there isn't much food in the pipeline and none in any kind of stockpile or warehousing system.   Some of the stuff I have studied says that when the stock levels (most of which is at distribution points or on trucks) drops below a critical point, where people will pay almost any price for it, the price spikes up rapidly.  It isn't a smooth curve, and before it gets critical, there is very little movement in price. (For more information, there is a link in the "link farm section of this blog.)



Another thing about higher population density is that epidemics will spread much more readily through densely populated areas.  This has happened before, with the loss of more than 25% of the world population in less than a century.  And that was without jet airplanes.  Today it could happen in just a couple years.

In the near future I hope to discuss the consequences and complications of high population densities across the planet, which I think will eventually culminate in the third and Fourth Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

The recent strain of influenza made its way through our population at a fairly high rate seems to be dying out. It spread at major epidemic levels that would have had schools closing during the 2009 pandemic. This level of spread normally goes on for a few weeks, until the number of easily infected people begins to be reduced.  Once there are fewer easy hosts, the epidemic dies out quickly.

In addition, there seems to be some evidence that there are more people, than in the past, who just don't react to the shots by building the expected level of immune response.  This is a disturbing trend, meaning that either the current vaccines are flawed, or like antibiotics, the end of the vaccine age is upon us. 

I wrote about the epidemic of 2009, as it spread into the US.  Within days and lasting for a few weeks there was panic and people would beg, borrow and steal to get the vaccine.  Two weeks later, as the news cycle progressed and people weren't dying in the streets, the panic turned almost instantly into complacency, and they couldn't even give the vaccine away.  The epidemic went on for a few more weeks after that, and even returned the following school year, but without the panic.  Of course, part of the problem was that media whipped the people into a panic.  Another part of the problem was that politicians were using the anxiety for their own political purposes.  (Don't believe in each other, or in God.   Believe in big government.)

One of the things that I said during that pandemic still is true:
There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.

First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands every time you come into your house from any public place. 

Good links for background.
Current info for this article found here:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/search/label/Influenza

Then my older blog entries.
The May 4 2009 and October 25 2009 articles are especially good.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/search/label/Epidemic

The May 4th artical links to this through the words "pandemic panic"
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/05/pandemic-come-as-you-are-dumb-as-you-are.html

How does Bible Prophesy impact our future?

I began an experiment some months ago.  There are some things I cannot write in an open blog such as this, and I thought I would begin a private newsletter to see if some of my more trusted friends (about half dozen of them) would want to discuss them.   Well, it was to begin as e-mail, and then move to something more private, but it didn't work out, so a majority of what was in those letters will appear here, as I begin to bring this blog back on line for yet another year.

The letter was to discuss a mix of Biblical Prophesy and stuff I have learned from Prepper forums, and be in the form of a newsletter.  The only glitch is I would need feed back to keep it going, and I got none. 

So, my first remark about prophesy is this:

I must emphasize that the events of the future that I discuss in here have no date attached to them.  Anyone who says they know when these things will happen is working for Satan, and not for God.  I like to say they will "most likely" happen between two and twenty years from now, but they could happen before the next issue of this newsletter reaches you.  When God addressed Israel, He always told them when things would happen, but for the Church, He told us to "watch always."  He said we would see the signs, like "the olive tree puts forth its leaves in early summer," but would not know the day or the hour (not even the angles know).

For those steeped in Biblical knowledge, most of what I say in this section will not be much news at all.  Still, there might be a tidbit here and there. 

Almost every book in the Bible contains some elements of prophesy.  In distant past times, much of Scripture was looked at piecemeal, and Israel was not a physical country, so it is no wonder almost no one understood the Biblical prophesies about the end times.  There were a few, however.  In the early 19th century a coherent theology of pretrib understanding was published.  It was, of course, ridiculed.  Even today some people look at Israel and pretend it does not exist.

Most people, when asked about Bible Prophesy, turn to the book of the Revelation.  Well, that is where Bible Prophesy ends.  As I pointed out in the previous newsletter, Bible Prophesy is found in just about every book in the Bible.  For the centerpiece, though, of Bible Prophesy should look at the major and minor prophets in the Old Testament. And which of these wrote first?  Well, that would be Joel. Why the books here are not arranged in chronological order is beyond me (and more importantly, beyond the scope of this letter), but they are not.  By looking at the historical events mentioned in the various books, they can be placed in order, and Joel is earlier than the others.  Now that we have that understood there is one more little piece to understand, and it is found in Genesis chapter one. 

Recall, there, that the phrase "and the evening and the morning were the (number) day.  This is one major key, that is, the day in the Hebrew Bible always begins at dusk, or in darkness. Now the statement Joel makes, (and several prophets after him) makes sense. 


Blow a trumpet in Zion; sound an alarm on my holy mountain! Let all the inhabitants of the land tremble, for the day of the LORD is coming; it is near,  a day of darkness and gloom, a day of clouds and thick darkness! Like blackness there is spread upon the mountains a great and powerful people; their like has never been before, nor will be again after them through the years of all generations. - Joel 2:1,2

His prophesy was true on two levels.  First, on the local level, they had just been invaded by a locust army and he prophesied they would be invaded by armies out of the North, from Syria and Assyria. His prophesy deals with the invading army, and how it will resemble the locust invasion.   Had he not been correct about this, you would have never heard about him, as they killed any prophet whose prophesies didn't come true.

Then, on another level (which we will hear about in other books) this prophesy is expanded into an invasion in the future.  Our future, not too distant.  No, I don't know how many years, but we understand it will be a modern army of enormous size.  

While most of those found in churches in the US think things will go along much as they always have, and many think things will get better, I can tell you that this is not so.  The US will deteriorate, until it is no more than a third world kind of nation and the Rapture will come.  We don't know which will happen first, nor do we know how many years there might be between the two events.  We only know they will both happen.

Another Month Deeper into Recession

Another month has come and gone, and we are a little deeper in recession.  Jobs in the private sector increased by less than 200k and jobs in the manufacturing sector actually decreased. Obama continues to tell us about all the millions and millions of jobs he is responsible for creating but that is just another political lie. As we slide closer to the fiscal cliff, it has become apparent that he will not negotiate to avoid going over the cliff. (And no compromise will stop it anyway, but that is another story) His supposed compromise solution had hidden in it that he could spend as much as he wants, whenever he wants, and for whatever he wants.

Yeah Right.

Tax levies are almost irrelevant in this (fiscal cliff) deal.  They are a symbolic gesture, and increasing them will give the government an excuse to be even more irresponsible, but cutting them won't solve the problem either.It makes little difference if a dollar is taxed out of the economy, or if it is borrowed and never returned.

And that is where the US is.  The budget will never again be balanced. That is a cliff we have already gone over (years ago, to be truthful).  Now the question is only: how soon will it get bad, and how bad will it get?  (and I don't really know the answers)

Spending cuts and changes to "entitlement" programs will slow the descent , but they won't stop it.  Now we are only concerned with how will America look on the way down.

Will we retain our Freedoms, our Rights as given by God, our Constitutional Government?   Or will we be transformed into a communist dictatorship harkening to the liberals who want to destroy us and the Islamists that want to enslave us? Will the rule o f law rule our land, or will international bankers and multinational corporations and unions run our government as a puppet as they steal all we have while operating above the law?  

Fasten your seatbelts, hold on tight, keep your Bible handy and your powder dry.
It is going to be a terrifying ride down.

Obama Reelected

I once again have to consider whether to keep this blog public.  I guess I will, but I am also considering producing a private newsletter only to those who know me and ask for it. (Of course, I also have to know you.)

The newsletter would be monthly, and be part discussion on Biblical Prophesy and part discussion on Prepping and Surviving a collapse of civilization.

I need comments on this subject if I am going to do the newsletter. I would also require some feedback (not every issue) on the newsletter, from time to time. 

I guess I must note that you can leave comments on here and they will remain private if you wish.  That way you can send me your email address or such.   Simply say in the comment that it is private and I will take down the info and delete the comment without it ever showing up on the blog. 

Some General Notes About Prepping

I have said before that if you have enough money to be able to afford Cable TV, then you have enough money to follow the five rules of finance that I recommend.

I would modify that, ever so slightly today.  As part of a methodical savings plan, I would say we need to be prepping for disaster. I noted that the Red Cross was tapped out in June of 2008.

People, in general, do not learn from past disasters.  This was evidenced by the lack of preparedness when Wilma hit Florida, 3 months after Katrina and Rita, and with plenty of warning.

Here is something I wrote, about 4 years ago about being prepared.

In the foreseeable future (and yes, those of you who know me know that I have said similar things before) disasters will become the norm. If you are not currently recovering from a disaster, then you should be thinking about (and preparing for) the next one. This may sound a little calloused, but most of the people in New Orleans in 2005 and those in Houston and Galveston this month were deluded into thinking it never could happen to them.

Keep in mind, Hurricanes happen every few years along the Gulf Coast


As most people will not be prepared for a major disaster, some things might be kept on hand, just for bartering with other, less prepared people. (Biblical References: Genesis 41:33-57)

The following is clipped from one of those "paper money is worthless and gold is the only real money" web sites.  The web site, as a whole, is pretty much loony, but this article is good:

Begin Clip:
There are a lot of different opinions as to what items will be best for barter in a post-collapse world where the underground economy may be the only viable economy for the passing of goods and services. That said, consider this a starting point as you begin to acquire goods for barter.

In no particular order, consider accumulating some of the following items for barter purposes. And keep in mind that in a post-collapse world, the items do not necessarily have to be new, but simply serviceable.

    Water purification supplies including purification tabs and filters
    Hand tools including hatchets, saws, machetes and general fix-it tools
    Fire making supplies, including lighters, matches, flint fire steel
    Sanitary supplies including toilet paper, feminine products and diapers
    Disposable razors and razor blades
    Fuel, any and all kinds (gas, diesel, propane, kerosene)
    Prescription drugs, painkillers, and antibiotics
    First aid remedies such as cough syrup, cortisone cream, boil-ese, calamine lotion and topical pain relievers
    Spirits such as bourbon, rum, gin, and vodka
    Coffee and tea (instant coffee is okay)
    Solar battery charger and rechargeable batteries
    Standard Batteries
    Reading glasses
    Paracord
    Bags, including large garbage bags as well as smaller zip-close bags
    Plastic sheeting
    Duct tape
    Tie Wraps
    Heavy plastic sheets and tarps
    Toiletries including toothpaste, dental floss soaps, shampoo (tip: save those small sized toiletries that are provided by hotels and motels)
    Condoms
    Latex or Nitrile gloves in a variety of sizes
    Hard candy
    Fishing supplies
    Knives of various types including fixed blades, kitchen knives, and box cutters
    Condiments and Spices
    Paperback books on a variety of subjects
    Tobacco and cigarette rolling supplies
    Amusements such as playing cards, crossword puzzle books, Sudoku
    Pencils & paper
    Pepper spray
    Garden seeds
    Flashlights
    Vinegar and baking soda to use in DIY cleaning supplies
    Empty spray bottles and squirt bottles
    Hand pumps for both air and liquids
    Mylar blankets and tents
    Hand warmers
    Sewing and mending supplies
    Knitting or crochet needles and yarn

One thing you will notice that I have not included firearms or ammo and for good reason. In a post-collapse society, you might not know your barter partners well and may run the risk that they will use these items against you so that they can steal the rest of your stuff. One person’s opinion, anyway.

Gun advice for the newbe -5

Follow up advise and re-considerations

Over the past couple of months I have had to do some reconsidering of the 9mm automatic vs the 357 revolver.  Also, it seems the prices have gone up in the past couple years, and you will need to budget an extra $100, unless you were just real fortunate, as I was, in finding good quality low cost firearms. 

One of the biggest re-considerations I had to make is in the area of economics and reliability.  Or economics of reliability.  While at the low end, where I live, a revolver is likely to cost about $100 more than an automatic, shooting a dozen rounds of a particular ammo through it is sufficient to say it is reliable.   Shooting 4 dozen rounds of a particular ammo through an automatic is also sufficient, if it never jams once.  I recently came across a troublesome gun and had to shoot off about 3 dozen rounds in the process of troubleshooting it and repairing it, and will now need to shoot 5 to 7 dozen rounds through it to prove its reliability. That is personal defense ammo, not practice ammo, so it will cost upwards of $70 to insure this firearm is reliable. 

Secondly, the revolver is much easier to clean.  No disassemble, just brush it out and oil it up.  Most automatics require disassemble for cleaning.  To a former military man as myself, this is second nature.  Not to most people.  Hence, the revolver is simpler to use and maintain. 

Between those two considerations, I now must favor the 357 for anyone who wouldn't normally have a gun but needs one now in these increasingly dangerous times.  Sure, it won't have the firepower and it isn't really a good carry gun, but if those are what you want, they come with a much higher budget.  These article are all about the minimalist gun in the home. 

The remainder of this article, while it may be of interest to others, is mainly aimed at new owners of 357 revolvers.

Over the past couple of years, there have been some improvements in ammo.   But to understand these improvements, you must first understand the relationships in energy, recoil, and shock.  As those things are somewhat beyond the scope of this article, I will try to give a very, very sketchy and brief overview of them.

If you want to skip this part, my former advise, of making a decision on a personal defense ammo that is within your budget and sticking with it, is still good.  But if you are thinking about a more effective line of ammo, here is a quick overview of the considerations. 

More velocity and more bullet weight (measured in grains) makes more effective ammo.  But increasing both will increase recoil dramatically.  Increasing velocity while maintaining same bullet weight increases effectiveness while increasing recoil proportionately.  But too much velocity (or too little, for that matter) means the bullet is more likely to pass right through the bad guy and take a lot of its energy with it.  Thus modern defense ammunitions use an "engineered" bullet that is almost guaranteed to expand to 40% or more over its original size, to insure it delivers maximum shock almost immediately on impact. 

Now there is no combination that performs best in every situation, and no ammo that is guaranteed to perform the best, so you may have to do some reasoning for yourself. How much recoil can you handle?  If you can handle 357 ammo, great.  But that puts you in about 20% of the population.  For the other 80% of us, after practicing with standard 38+P practice ammo (see note1)  for a while, make a decision, can you handle twice the recoil? If so, there are some light 357 loads that you might want to try.  (See Note2)  If not, go with a good 38+P personal defense ammo.  Hitting the target is much more important than what you shoot at it.

There are two tests to see if you are proficient at using your weapon and not going overboard on hot ammunition. 

Test number one I call Load, Roll and Shoot. In this simple test, load 4 or 5 rounds and leave one or two empty chambers.  Without looking at the weapon, roll the cylinder and close it, so you aren't sure where the empty chambers are.  While shooting, if the barrel jerks (usually down) when you click on an empty chamber, you are flinching as you shoot.

A second and more complex test, for proficiency, is to see if you can fire  5 bullets into a 5 inch circle at 5 yards in 5 seconds.  This is a scaled down version of a test created by a guy named  Richard Mann.  I read his article in a gun magazine.  The test is a good one.  He developed it for really well trained shooters drawing a subcompact pistol from a concealed holster.  Here, I recommend it, without the drawing from concealed holster and stuff, as a yardstick just to see if you can consider yourself basically proficient on your weapon. 

NOTE1:  For practice ammo, I use "Winchester White Box," sold under the name "USA" and I use JHP's, just because they are easy to find around here. They cost about $20 for a box of 50.  Because of the cost and the light recoil, this is what you should be firing most of the time.  This is also a reasonably effective defense round, should you decide to just go with one and only one type of ammo.  (Remember, this article is for those on a budget.)

NOTE2:  The following types of ammo should produce a recoil somewhere about halfway between a 38+P and  fully loaded 357 round.  They should each be about 50% more effective than what I used as my standard practice ammo.  I did a calculation (no particular units, just comparison) on what I expect the recoil to be for each of them, using the manufactures specifications.  For reference, I added practice ammo and full load 357 ammo afterwards. 

Remington Golden Saber     recoil=153    This is a fairly easy to find ammo

Winchester PDX1 Defender     recoil=166 

Buffalo Bore  38+P HeavyLoad   recoil=157  This ammo can be used in a 38, but I don't recommend it due to the excessive stress it would put on the weapon.  It is also hard to find, unless you order it. 

 Practice ammo  (Winchester White Box)    recoil=119

Full Load 357 ammo ranges from about 180 to around 200.

Oddsmaker's Outlook

So, Europe is looking like a slow motion train wreck.  The economic outlook on the continent as a whole is slowly growing dimmer, as half dozen of the weaker countries reject austerity measures.  They have declared they don't want to live within their means and the stronger countries are slowly getting weary of carrying their dead weight. This is a harbinger of the prophesy found in Daniel ch 2.

While the true "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" will not ride until after the Rapture (see note), foreshadowing events of their arrival seem certain to arrive before the Rapture, and very likely in the next couple of years. I said before that I would post a forecast of some of the disasters that might befall this world, and some details about them. So here are some odds, with short explanations of each type of event.

Currently Barrak Obama has about a 40% chance of being reelected.  There is better than a 50-50 chance that this would be followed by the Executive Branch of our government imposing draconian measure to stifle free speech and press, an immediate move to embrace Islam and persecute Christians, financial chaos, and movement towards a police state.  These items will be simultaneous to an uprising among various factions of the citizens.  Black "support groups" (such as the "New Black Panthers."  Self serving parasites, in reality,  using "Black Liberation" as an excuse for their dastardly plans) demanding a free lunch and an end to accountability for criminal actions.  Socialists (unions), anarchists, drug gangs (that is pretty much all major gangs today), and busy-body liberals (like the "occupy" movements) will all rise up trying to get their slice of the pie.  Until it all comes crashing down.

In 2014 and beyond, there is about a 10% chance a weather related phenomenon (like el Nino) will create havoc in the agricultural world and cause world wide famine. We are on the verge of that today, resulting from the weather disruptions of 2011. And even without some disaster, wheat has doubled in 7 years and because of the droughts last year cattle are up 30% this year, with no sign of any relief anywhere.

There is an ever increasing chance of pandemic.  This is because of transportation, the over use of antibiotics (giving rise to germs that don't respond to antibiotic treatment) and because of the introduction of various species into areas of the world where they had not been before.  Note that this pre-rapture pandemic will be of an ordinary nature, and normal measures taken by individuals and communities will be somewhat effective against it.

Each of the next 3 years, there is about a 3% chance that a major solar flare will impact earth, killing a major electrical power grid, and leaving millions of people without electrical power for weeks or even months.

There is a very likely chance that as the money flees European banks (this money flight is happening now, in slow motion) for the "safety" of eastern or US banks, the European Banking system, and indeed, the entire European Union may collapse into chaos. (again, this will be in accord with Daniel ch2) This may happen within the next year, and indeed, I'll be surprised if they last until Christmas.  If this follows the pattern many of us see in prophesy, the collapse will lead to the rise of a dictator that will bring order, by and Iron Fisted rule, to the European continent.

In each of the above scenarios, the Islamists will almost certainly rise up against Christendom, attacking governments, churches, civil infrastructure, and anybody who tells the truth about them. They will attempt to take advantage of a weak moment in history to bring in the new Caliphate and summon the 12th Imam (our Antichrist) to rule the world for their moon god (called Allah).

In each of the next several years, the odds the Rapture will occur in any particular year will rise, starting at about 4% for next year and increasing to about 10% per year by 2020.  While no man knows the day or the hour (or even the year), the season is upon us, and the Bible gives unmistakable signs that it is to happen soon. 


NOTE:  For years I struggle with the question of whether Revelation 4:1 represents the Rapture of The Church and that ALL events of chapters 5, 6, and 7 occur after the Rapture. Until recently, I was not completely certain, and searched the Scriptures, other writings, and looked into the original language wording of some of those passages.  Now I am certain the actual events described in those chapters will occur after the Rapture, however, I am also convinced there will be forerunners, a foreshadowing of those events, in the years leading up to the Rapture.

The Coming Disaster - part-1

Will a world wide disaster destroy civilization? Or even a regional disaster destroy our nation? Will the end of the world come next December? Or TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it)? This is the first of a small series of articles I intend to write on the subject. The number of people preparing for TEOTWAWKI has risen dramatically in the past couple years, rivaling the Y2K scare. "Preppers" has become a regular show on TV in the past year, and even some of the warehouse stores are catering to the survivalist crowd.

A couple years ago, I made a general forecast of what disasters might befall this world, and came out with about 7% chance of some world changing event occurring in the following 12 months. I had intended to update that number the following year, but in truth there wasn't much change the year after, and it slipped my mind. Things have changed somewhat now, and I will make a similar forecast in the near future, but with a little more detail than the last one. But that doesn't mean I am not preparing. But I am not preparing for TEOTWAWKI. Those people are preparing for the end of the road. I am simply preparing for any sort of bump in the road.

God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).

A couple days ago, the most important monthly economic factor came out. The monthly payroll report on how many jobs have been gained or lost in several areas of the economy. I look mostly at private sector jobs, and at manufacturing. This month, private sector added 130,000 after adding 166,000 last month. To break even, we need 200,000 each month, so this basically erased the gains we had made in some of the preceding months. In manufacturing, we need 20,000 a month to call it good news, and this month only got 16,000. With the exception of a few months here and there, when we buoyed up, the US and even the world economy have been slowly sinking. Oh, the numbers can be made to look good, especially for short periods of time, but the reality is that a few people at the top are getting richer, and most of us at the bottom are getting poorer. Some of it is a "great conspiracy" against us, but most of it is our own doing.

We the people spent, years ago, the money we need now, and we continue to spend more than we can afford. When I tell people what they actually need to do to get their financial house in order, they look at me like I am crazy and tell me "they deserve better." Well, maybe they do, but things are not getting any better, and in not too distant a future, their choices will be taken away from them. Still, the US economy is one of the most resilient in the world, with many layers of security and multiple safety nets and other safety mechanisms, so it is not likely to completely crash anytime soon. But in other places in the world, economic chaos is just around the corner.

Europe has likely already passed the tipping point, and there will be no rescue from a slow slide into disaster. Greece has already defaulted once, and may again. Spain, Portugal, Italy and possibly France may default sometime in the next couple of years. While a wholesale run on the banks is unlikely in Europe, a couple of small scale runs have already happened, removing more than a quarter of the deposits from banks in Greece, for instance. A repeat of that will likely happen in other countries, and each time it happens, it will require another bailout.

France and Greece just had elections. The people in those countries, asked to try to live within their means responded with a hearty "Hell No! Give us our freebies, consequences be damned!" They through out the governments that were trying to help them, and elected socialists. Things are not going to get better in Europe. Every time the Central Banks try to drag them back from the brink, it is harder to do, and has less of a lasting effect. As the situation worsens, one country after another will default on their debts, as Greece did, and people will pull their money out of that nation's banks ahead of such defaults. Where that money will go, I don't know.

Economic Article Commentary

Well, some people are optimistic about the payroll numbers that came out this month, and some are just not too enthusiastic. Count me in that second category. The numbers are good, to be sure. Especially the manufacturing, which added 25000 jobs. But to begin a recovery, we need at least ten more months in a row with numbers like that. And that is just to begin recovery.

To see what dire straights we are in, look at this article:
Almost too Crazy to Believe


I said last year that we seem to be in the end game. I don't know if that end game will last 2 years or 20 years (although I cannot see how it could last 20 years). Of course, there is nothing to say the Rapture won't come in less than 20 minutes, but if I were to lay odds on it, I would say between 2013 and 2023 would be the most likely years for the Rapture. One thing is certain, though, if my predictions are early and we are all here in 2030, we have lost nothing. But if you don't believe, and the Lord returns when you are not ready, it will be bad for you.


Having said all of that. I find myself ready for Jesus to return, but continuing to prepare for the interim, in case He decides to wait a while.

End of Year Roundup

Well, this year has gone by so quickly there is not enough time for a proper end of year roundup. Of course, anybody knows, as we get older, our years get shorter.

At the beginning of the year I recognized that we may be entering the "end game" and the prophesies concerning the Rapture, Tribulation, and the Return of Christ seem, more than ever to be coming true. I rather suspect we have less than 20 years left in this world, though we may have less than 20 minutes also. As any Bible believing Christian will tell you: "NO man knows the day, nor the hour" that the end times will come.

Throughout most of the year I watched the world and US economy slowly tread water or move first one way then another, with no real progress. But I really spent most of the year rethinking and reorganizing my disaster plans. Oh, yes, I have disaster plans. I am not making plans to ride out Armageddon, and be a survivalist in days that look like Mad Max. But I have plans to make things go a little smoother should some little calamity come to my corner of the Earth between now and the End.

Towards the end of the year, mostly in October and November, I spent too much time following the silver market, and considering buying some silver coins. I actually tried at one point, only to have my credit card not go through, because of some computer glitch. I might try again, but I am learning not to spend too much time thinking about it.

The Economy Still Stinks a Little

I find it amusing the markets are all up these past few days. Can anyone say "irrational exuberance"? Not only is our government still massively in debt, with no real plan in sight to fix it, but the governments of Greece and a few others are in the same condition. And not only are governments in dire condition, but the consumers and the corporations they have come to worship as their provider are in dire condition also, with balance sheets full of debt. And a meltdown in Europe is not too much of a long-shot in the next few weeks.

The fact the world economy keeps humming along is a testament to workers who get up each morning, look at the situation, and go to work anyway, even knowing they aren't making enough to do well. And it is a testament to God's Grace and Patience that he hasn't pulled the plug on this world and allowed the Evil One to come to power for that "last 7 years."

It is possible (it would fit well with my understanding of prophesy) the meltdown of the European Union could be the start of the Great Tribulation. But I think it is more likely just one more event along the way towards it, and we have a ways to go. And that is how I do my planning. If this is "the end," so be it, but if it is not, then here is the best way to handle it.

Greenspan used the term "irrational exuberance" in Dec 2006, and within a year we were into the meltdown. I was a bit disturbed Bernanke sold us a bill of goods while secretly bailing out the world banking system. We were told TARP would be $800B, and it looked on the surface it was less than that. In reality, it Was $16,000B dollars. 20 times as much. I warned repeatedly back in 2008 that it seemed to me that the Fed was printing a lot of money, but was told they weren't printing all that much. Now I see why. A great deal of it was pumped into, not our economy, but other countries economies. The globalist leaders of our nation sold us out years ago to build a new world order, and this was part of the price we will pay.

Another reason people may be overly optimistic about the economy is a drop in the unemployment rate. But that is deceptive. The rate dropped, not because more people had jobs (although payroll did go up about 120k jobs) but because a lot of people dropped out of the system. Also factory employment was down. All in all, this points to a weakening economy that is hollowing out even more.

I have begun to look into buying silver. Not much, as I don't have much money. My first attempt, a couple of weeks ago failed because of a credit card malfunction. (I think my credit union's safeguard said it didn't look like a normal purchase for me.) Last year (I think) I said silver was overpriced and should be less than $26 an ounce. This year, because of the possibility of a meltdown, I am looking at buying silver at any price under $31 an ounce. If things get to looking worse, I might go higher, but then again, the price of Gold dropped just before the meltdown in the mortgage market. I am hoping I can take advantage of such a drop.

Money is not all there is in this world, but Jesus told us to be aware of the goings on in the world. And Paul said that while we should be as harmless as doves, he also said we should be as wise as serpents.

I say be frugal with yourself and generous with others, but don't let the goings on in the world rob you blind.




Raw Link Information for this article.

irrational exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm

http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/Rising-Cash---And-Rising-Debt-Too.aspx
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/story/2011-11-26/myth-of-corporate-cash-piles/51346848/1

Secret Bailout of the World Banking System
http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3

Govenrment Printing Money
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-gov-printing-more-money.html


U.S. Employment Situation Report for November (Text)
By Chris Middleton - Dec 2, 2011 7:45 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-employment-situation-report-for-november-text-.html
Following is the text of the November employment report from the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job.
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7 cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.


U.S. October Consumer Price Index Report (Text)
By Kristy Scheuble - Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-october-consumer-price-index-report-text-.html
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month's 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September. (food up, energy up less, all other up, overall, up more than payroll)



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/greece-s-new-premier-says-keeping-euro-is-only-way-for-country.html
The immediate priority for Greece is securing the payment of an 8 billion-euro loan installment under a previous 110 billion-euro European Union-led rescue, Papademos said. The tranche must be paid before the middle of December to prevent a collapse of the country’s economy.
Samaras said yesterday that backing for the interim government should last no more than the three months needed to secure the financing before elections are held.
“The danger is that this is a really transitional service government, a pre-electoral government that will do all the right things to secure the loan but will be unable to promote the real reforms,” Yannos Papantoniou, a former finance and economy minister in a previous Pasok government.

Just some updates

Just some updates on some of the things I have written about over the past few months.

The Famine I wrote about a couple of months ago will not be as severe as I first thought. There will likely be shortages, but instead of the price of food doubling, this time it is only expected to rise by about 15%.

Some tidbits as to why it isn't as bad as I thought it would be:
Corn crop not hurt as bad as expected, but will be late.
Wheat harvests also not hurt as bad as I thought.

But the biggest factor is waste. Apparently, both the US and Europe still waste a good bit more food than I thought. How much, I don't know. I am still researching that (a lot of junk to sift through on the Net). But the bottom line is that the crop loss can be easily offset, this time by reducing the waste in our systems. As these things go in cycles we should have a few more years (or not, since these things cannot really be predicted) before a really bad famine sets in.

Obvious by now, this isn't the big famine mentioned in Revelation, but I will write more on both the coming famines and the 4 Horsemen of Revelation later.

Closely related to famine is epidemic. There is a strain of Bird Flu (in India) that is beginning a breakout, but it is still unclear if it presents a pandemic threat. Remember, the time to prepare is before things like this hit the media and panic ensues. As a related note, Polio is making a comeback. The majority of the US is vaccinated, but there could easily be a spread into small segments of our population, which would cause a panic. Keep your own vaccines up to date and there should be no problems. (And that goes for your family and friends) And lastly, MRSA strains are showing up that are resistant to antibacterial ointments. These are the ones found in the typical family medicine cabinet. Time to look into old time (18th century) remedies.


On a completely different note, as I have been listening to the expository recordings made by Pastor Chuck Smith covering the whole Bible, I have realized they were done over a period of about 20 years. Makes sense. He did something like 232 of them, and no more than one per week.

The Coming Famine

In the coming year, we run a risk of worldwide food shortages. This will come in two forms. In third world countries there will be widespread starvation, as availability of food simply disappears. In developed countries prices will spike, and the poor in those countries will not have enough to eat, despite attempts by governments and charitable organizations to keep pace with the skyrocketing needs.

There will, of course, be people of wealth (about 2% to 5% of the population) in third world countries that will have sufficient wealth to have plenty. They will even be involved in profiteering off the misery of the masses, and the attempts by charitable organizations to deliver food to those masses.

There will also be some in between situations, where food will be available, though in short supply and at exorbitant prices, and in those places there will be riots and wars.

There have been a couple of close calls in the past, with world food inventories falling to near zero, political and market forces pushing food to the wealthy and well connected and for short
times there was starvation in some regions.

I will admit I could not find good references to the information, but I do remember around 1996, there was an article saying we were down to three weeks food in the US. But of course, the next crops were harvested and things went back to normal. And in reality, we are in perpetually the same shape today as we were in that close call. Only now we call it "Just in Time Supply System."

America once had massive warehouses, and silos dotted the land, full of food, stored up for times of need. Or at least stored until someone ordered it to fill our grocery shelves. But that system was deemed inefficient, as someone had to pay for those warehouses. Now, the "Just in Time" system forecasts needs, and computers know the moment there is a sale of an item from the grocery, so that the next shipment of a product is in route to the store as the sale of the previous one is being sold. The next shipment of the product to the distribution center is in route as the current one is being loaded onto the truck to be taken to the store. The next shipment after that is being harvested somewhere in the world, and already earmarked for delivery to the distribution center. It is all like a big pipeline.


In this system there are no major grain stores or warehouses. What is in the pipeline is what is in the system. And last I checked, that amounts to about seven weeks of supplies, total. This system works, as long as crops somewhere in the world are being harvested on a continued basis, and as long as when one food gets short people can eat something else.

We are coming to a day in the very near future, somewhere in late 2011 or early 2012 (most likely), crop failures all over the world will have a real and lasting impact on our food supply. Right now, no one is talking about this because it is so subtle. (as in epidemics, we seem to have two modes of thinking, complacency and panic) In reality, we are likely to see only 15% - 30% drop in crop availability. But that can translate to doubling or more of the prices here, and complete loss of availability in some regions.

But this isn't going to be a one week or one month event. There are impending crop failures all around the world right now, and these failures will happen over a period of months or maybe even years, and as the world population continues to rise, the shortages generated in 2012 will continue to echo across the world for years. And the political fallout, as the wealthy and well connected attempt to try to enrich themselves on the plight of the masses, will result in massive consolidation of power and control over increasingly scarce and valuable commodities.

It is not like this has not been warned about before. While most of the "news" releases about an impending famine have been self serving panic ads meant to make people buy their products, some of them are from the science community, and some of those were from people who will not directly benefit from the changes they advocate. Most of those have been talking about a famine 20 or more years down the road, but with the sudden rash of crop failures around the globe, it may be at our door step within the next year or two.

The Bible warns us in The Revelation, there will be a famine in the last days. It says the famine will be bad enough that a laborer's wages for a day will be sufficient only to feed him for a day, with nothing left over for housing, a family, or anything else. The only question, now, should be: is this the one the Bible talks about, or is this merely a harbinger of what is to come?

Economic Outlook for 2011

Hopefully this will be the longest post I make all year.

Here is a list of subjects I will cover:

• Markets and Jobs
• Gas price forecast extension
• Governments roll in our current economy
• Biggest holders of our national debt
• A dismal future

Markets and Jobs

I heard on the first day of trading this year (3 Jan) that if the markets move upwards by at least 1% on that day, it will be a good year. By the 5th, they were congratulating themselves on how good the payroll numbers would look. Payroll numbers come out on the 7th of this month. I have news for them. The good or bad of a year does not revolve around the markets, but around good jobs for the masses. Payroll numbers, especially manufacturing payrolls are the key.

At first, it looked pretty good. The manufacturing sector expanded on several fronts, and orders for durable goods were up. But remember, the indexes were above the waterline most of 2010, and yet the manufacturing jobs numbers were not so good. I think, to be good, the ISM manufacturing index must be above 55, instead of the 50 we normally associate with improvement. That goes along with the need to add more than 200,000 jobs a month to the economy, and 20,000 must be manufacturing jobs. This month's numbers are just over 100,000 jobs and only 5000 in manufacturing. The manufacturing number is the most sobering.


Gas price forecast extension

The current market forces indicate gas will be over $3.50 in May, and over $4 by Christmas. And my numbers are for the areas of the gas price map that show green.


Governments roll in our current economy

The biggest drags on our economy are renege prices and expansion of government. In the past year, the Obamacare legislation, and the gifts of bailouts to bankers and unions were the biggest government drags. And the many moratoriums on energy production, both before and after the BP spill (and still today) are one of the biggest factors driving up energy prices.

So, currently, the Obama administration is the biggest cause of our economic problems. But it is not even close to being alone as a culprit. We have a fun and games mentality that will snap up anything shiny (I believe it was Dave Ramsey who called it a "culture of bass"), will not defer pleasure and is centered around instant gratification. This is the same mentality that led to the demise of both the Greek and the Roman empires. And we have more of it than they did.

Add to that the idea that government is supposed to be all to everyone (the builders of a perfect law and order society for the republicans, and the santa clause of the democratic party) and it is a recipe for disaster.



Biggest holders of our national debt

Just as a side note, here are the biggest holders of our national (government) debt. The website I got this from only lists about $3T of the reported $14T national debt. I suspect the disconnect may be the $14T is obligations (contracts have been signed) and the $3T is what is already payed out, but I am not certain of this.

Who holds how much of our federal governments debt - in Billions

• Total 2845.8
• Country or entity Oct 2010
• China, Mainland 906.8
• Japan 877.4
• United Kingdom 477.6
• Oil Exporters 213.9
• Brazil 177.6
• Hong Kong 139.2
• Carib Bnkng Ctrs 133.7

Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama.

A dismal future

To make this clear, I don't think we will pull out of this. If we see any prosperity at all again, it will be a short and very hollow economic upswing. The only questions is when and how suddenly will we slide into desolation. The numbers lately (look at the third chart) are looking more and more like the slide is imminent, but I am no expert at this, and it could be months or even years away.


After repeated warnings by Moody's that they might be "stretching" the AAA credit rating of US Treasury bonds, many others around the world broke with Moody's and downgraded our credit rating last Spring. Of course, in my own personal opinion, Moody's also kept many bond ratings too high in the past, becoming part of the problem that led to the recession and bailouts. I once said we could know when the recession was ending by the interest rates on T-Bills going up, but at the time I could not visualize our national debt becoming so large we might pay higher interest rates because investors are unsure if we will slide into such an economic abyss, of unemployment and inflation, that the T-Bills would be nearly worthless.

Entering the End Game

I believe we have entered the "End Game" (reference to Chess Strategy) between God and Satan.

Only time will tell. No man knows the day nor the hour. We have been very near the end game before. In 1982 we were within a hair's breadth of entering the end game, but then God raised up Ronald Reagan, and the timetable was set back 30 years. We approach it again, but this time I believe we have crossed the line, and the elements are in motion, that will bring about the end of the age of the Gentiles. (And the Church Age)

I ran across a good write up on this subject, that may be of interest to any who read my blog to find out what the future holds for us and our nation.

The Revelation Of Jesus Christ….Revealed

Since no two people completely agree on the interpretation of Scripture, I will say right up front that I have a couple of minor disagreements with his interpretation, about halfway through his article. That is it. Minor disagreements on a couple of points. The more two Christians engage in serious, prayerful study of the Scriptures the less disagreement they will have.

The watchmen on the wall are sounding the alarm.

From the midst of Jerusalem! Now blow a trumpet in Tekoa and raise a signal over Beth-haccerem; For evil looks down from the north, and a great destruction.
Jeremiah, Chapter 6

So, what should we be doing about this? Not much other than what we should have been doing, all along. As Luke 12:37 says: "Blessed are those slaves whom the master will find on the alert when he comes ; truly I say to you, that he will gird himself to serve, and have them recline at the table, and will come up and wait on them.

I wrote some time ago about the characteristics of a good Church. Well, that article could become obsolete really soon. Should things take a turn for the worse, it will be time to start looking for a good House Church ministry, as the True Believers move back underground. More on that later, if the Lord is willing.

End of Year Posting

What happened this past year, and what I hope to do, if the Lord is willing, next year.

Blogger has added some new features for static files, similar to "sticky posts" on WordPress. I expect to capitalize on this feature real soon.


In the next year, I don't think my articles will be as long or as in-depth. Nor will I be concerned with having as many links to supporting information.


Combat Effective - around 20 Feb 2010 Combat Effective was taken down by multiple attacks, some of which may have been denial of service, some of which may have exploited flaws in either the software or service provider. It is back up, but due to the busy schedules of the site owner (both his job and his family) it isn't as heavily trafficked as it was two years ago.


I asked God repeatedly throughout 2010 to help me find a way out of the job I am in, and in December, He answered. He told me NO. It seems there is a steady stream of people He has been sending to me for encouragement and direction.


I am still hearing that Christians all around the US, and possibly the world, are very weak in their knowledge of the Bible. We are now deep into the days of Apostasy, with the days of persecution coming at us fast. Just a few days ago, a new law was passed, Christians can now serve in the Military, but only on a "don't ask don't tell" basis. This law is from the same government that dis-invited all Fundamentalist Christians from the National Day of Prayer.

I suspect this is "End Game" (Chess reference, not "the end of the game") for the Church and the "age of the Gentiles" is coming to an end. Not just because of what is happening in the US, but what is happening around the world.

While I haven't looked very hard, I have seen no improvement in the Border Fence all this year. More people on the Border, and better enforcement of employment verification, but no more fence. People on the Border is a make work project, and employment verification will lead to more surveillance society, as mission creep sets in.

I hope to do more with book reviews next year.

The economics lessons of 2007-2008 seem to be forgotten. I thought rising interest rates would signal strengthening economy, but I neglected to forecast the downgrading of US Treasury Bonds (by Moody). Food inflation is just around the corner for the US, and is an ever present reality in some parts of the world.

Energy prices will be going up for the next few years, if there is not another worldwide economic crash. I locked in my electric rate early in November, just in time (before the rest of the world was able to react to the news about energy prices). As for anyone who hasn't done that, now is better than later for getting a contract (if you live in one of the states that allows customers to contract for electricity rates.

I started to do some articles on cars and trucks, but didn't have the time and energy to do it justice last year. I hope to do much more with it in the coming year.

If you haven't begun preparing for disasters, don't delay too long.

As a math fanatic, I can't help but play at being an odds-maker: here are some probabilities for the next year:
Global economic collapse 4% chance.
The Rapture might occur 2% chance.
War of Gog (see Ezekiel 37) 2% chance.
Solar Flare knocking out our power grid 1% chance.
Mass persecution of Christians in the US 1% chance.
Some other massive catastrophe, on a scale bigger than
anything seen by anyone living today 4% chance.

If any of the above occur, the possibility that a combination of more than one of the above will occur is very high. Combined likelihood of something (anything) really really big in the next year is about 7% chance.

Remember: the government isn't willing, and probably not able, to do what is necessary to protect you. They will always be more interested in projects to feather their caps and line their pockets, than to do what is right.

In intend to pay less attention to the Federal Government this next year.

I plan to split Observations and Definitions into two groups and do more, though smaller articles on Technology.