Desperate Times

To say these are desperate times is both a "no brainer" and a bit of unmerited anxiety.


China and the U.S.

It looks more and more like China and the US will be squaring off for a fight. Not too long ago, it was the US and N.Korea. And it has always been that way between those two countries and the US. Especially in the 70's and 80's when Communist operatives in our universities and media were telling us that China had no expansionist agenda and would never be a threat to us. Purely defensive, they told us. Right.

But in the grand scheme of things, these countries are, right now, just a distraction from what everyone familiar with the Kingdom of God and Biblical Prophesy knows we should be watching (and for those who don't know, it is Israel and her enemies).




Wars and Rumors of Wars
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2066380/Will-World-War-III-U-S-China.html?ITO=1490

When the U.S. Navy deployed warships in the Yellow Sea in a show of support for the South Korean government, Beijing denounced America, blandly denying North Korea’s guilt. The Chinese claimed that they were merely displaying even-handedness and restraint, but an exasperated President Obama said: ‘There’s a difference between restraint and wilful blindness to consistent problems.’
Washington is increasingly sensitive to the fact that its bases in the western Pacific have become vulnerable to Chinese missiles. This is one reason why last week the U.S. made a historic agreement with Australia to station up to 2,500 U.S. Marines in the north of the country.
Beijing denounced the deal, saying it was not ‘appropriate to intensify and expand military alliances and may not be in the interests of countries within this region’.

Energy.

While the Global Warming (oops, I mean climate change) wackoes are still telling us we are about to run out of oil and our carbon emmisions are changing the global climate, a quiet change in the crude oil and natural gas supply has now produced easily harvestable reserves that will last for more than 40 years. Maybe more than 100 years.

As for the Global Warming Wacko crowd. These are the people who look at a roller coaster and believe the people on that little train are causing it to go up and down and around. The tracks are just incidental. Man Made Global Warming or Anthropological Climate Change, or whatever you want to call it is now know to be a complete fraud. Apparently made up by some guys in a university to keep them in scholarship (or fellowship) money. It just snowballed from there, as certain LEFTIST liberals found ways to turn weak minded people's anxiety into cash.




Global Famine.

Well this one is real. But maybe not immediate. Others have been writing about the famine that I wrote about. But as I said a few weeks ago, it doesn't look like it will be a major famine next year. Of course, anything can happen, and we could face a major famine even a couple of months from now. But it currently doesn't look that way.




http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2011/07/15/309874/Food-inflation.htm

With grain supplies still tight and worldwide demand growing quickly, food price inflation looks set to remain high and even worsen in the years ahead.
It will likely take years of near-perfect crops to replenish global stockpiles of corn and wheat, the staples of the world food system, and minimize the risk of price spikes.
Stockpiles of corn in the United States, the No. 1 producer, are forecast to drop to 16-year lows — 870 million bushels — by summer 2012. As a percentage of use, that would be the second-tightest since the Dust Bowl devastated crops in the 1930s.
This time around, crops are historically large, but demand is also surging due to Chinese consumers and U.S. ethanol producers.
As for wheat, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects world inventories will improve by June 2012 to reach 182 million tons, up from their 26-year low of roughly 126 million in 2007-08 during the last run-up in prices. But growing demand, notably from the livestock sector, will keep prices high, as will a scarcity of high-protein, high-quality milling wheat.

Israel and Islam.

This is Real. And Big.

It is looking like Israel will take a preemptive strike against Iran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8877758/Israel-believes-it-could-carry-out-strikes-on-Iran-with-under-500-civilian-fatalities.html

Israel believes it could carry out military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and suffer fewer than 500 civilian fatalities were Tehran to retaliate, the country's defense minister said on Tuesday.

Ehud Barak raised the prospect of military action with Iran once again as he hinted that splits in the international community over imposing sanctions regarded as crippling enough by Israel could leave the Jewish state with no option but to take matters into its own hands.

Economic Disaster in Europe

This one is also real. But we don't know when the meltdown will occur, or how long it will last.

The biggest problem in our economies today is that the money we need to invest or use today, was spent several years ago. This is true throughout most of the western world. The next biggest problem is that those who seem to be willing to either bail us out or buy up the shattered remains of our self destructed civilizations are our enemies.

I have said before, on this blog, that the insanity has gone on so long that a sudden removal of the insanity would be disastrous, and that continuing the insanity will be disastrous, but that we as individuals need not participate in the insanity.

I said at the beginning of the month that the banks are still safer than hiding money under your mattress, but that "the margin is getting thinner." Well, things have gotten worse, and it looks like it will only be a matter of time before there is a melt down in Europe, with the economic destruction spreading to the US. Now may be the time to begin watching the silver and gold markets and moving some money into silver and gold coins, if you haven't already. And I mean physical coins that you have in your hand, not certificates. Of course that means you will need physical security. A safe deposit box might be ideal, or not. If the melt down is severe enough, the banks will lock their doors and you will not be able to get in. I have researched home safes, and can say that anything is better than nothing, but most home safes can be broken into. What you need depends on what you have. I am fortunate, as I have very little money, I don't need much of a safe. (Maybe I should bury a coffee can in the back yard?)



We came close to a meltdown and run on the banks

By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 27, 2011 6:01 PM CT
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income.html

The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy.
And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.

This could go under "disaster prep" also
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

Run on the banks?
http://www.thetrader.se/2011/11/08/run-for-your-money/


24 November 2011
Don't mention the R word
By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15869945
R is for run. As in bank run.


IMF said to be readying Italian bail-out 28.11.11 @ 09:29
http://euobserver.com/19/114418
By Leigh Phillips

BRUSSELS - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is preparing a multi-billion-euro rescue of Italy, reports in the Italian media on Sunday (27 November) claim.
The Washington-based lender is in talks readying a €600 billion assistance package for Rome in return for swingeing austerity and structural adjustment measures, according to an article in Italian daily La Stampa, quoting unnamed officials in the American capital.
Spain meanwhile may not need a full bail-out programme and be offered instead a credit line.
Buttressing speculation that the IMF is set to bail out the eurozone’s third biggest economy, ECB member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer was asked directly by reporters whether the IMF is preparing a programme of support for Italy, but he refused to comment.

A note on my lack of style in this article.

I didn't have time to embed the links properly this time, I left them in the raw form I use in my notes.

Annual Gas Price Forecast

I recently realized I had neglected to make my annual gas price forecast at the end of July, as is my normal habit (been doing it for about 8 years). Well, it isn't going to be so important in the future as it was in the past, as crude oil and therefore fuel will not be going into an ever growing shortage as was thought in the past. We now know of reserves that will sustain us for the next 40 years (sorry, I don't have a good supporting article for this) if need be. The "Peak oil problem," for the time being, has been defeated. Reliability of delivery is becoming a bigger question, but I will save that for another article.

As the world economy and more locally, the US economy have drifted into the doldrums, the price of oil has stabilized in the $80 to $90 range, and actually these numbers reflect optimism on the part of speculators that the world economy will improve. Should we slide into the dreaded "double dip" recession (increasingly unlikely, since Bernenky announced interest rates would remain near zero for the next couple of years), oil prices will slide back into the $70's of dollars a barrel.

Well, using my formula, $80 a barrel translates to $3.70 per gallon (regular unleaded, here in rural Texas), and $90 a barrel translates to $4.10 per gallon.

While that is still quite a range (but really only 10%), it is more dependent on politics and weather than it is on any predictable factor. Most importantly, it is dependent on how friendly (or, more likely, unfriendly) the current administration (read EPA) and courts are towards the oil industry, and how much our government devalues our money by printing more of it.

Will be taking a Hiatus

From time to time, I find it necessary to take time off from blogging, and this looks like the time. Therefore, I plan to take a hiatus for the rest of April. Too much to do: Taxes, spring cleaning, gardening, etc.


If you are looking for more knowledge of the
Bible, go to ThruTheBible.org and climb aboard the Bible Bus

About the economy

Jobs still look good thru end of March

Oil and Gasoline are still going up. And they will continue upwards for at least the rest of this year. After that, I don't know if things will crash, like they did in the fall of 2007.

Government still claims there is no inflation (translation: your pay isn't going up).

I said a couple months ago that I might look into silver, and I did: Silver is wildly over priced. This past few months I looked at how many batteries I typically use in a year, and bought that many (and a few more). Energy is going up. Buy ahead, but beware, typical alkaline batteries like I use have a 3 year shelf life.

Successful LED Lights

I intended to post this several months ago, as my last post on this subject said: "It will probably be next week before I post about my current assortment of lights, mostly made by Ray-O-Vac"

I have owned quite a few LED lights over the last 5 years. There has been much improvement in the quality of white light LED's over that time. The main improvement has been in the quality of white light. White LED's in 2001 were of such poor quality someone wrote an article titled "White LED's Suck" and they were fairly correct. Today's LED's are much better.

The flashlights around my house in the 90's and early into this century were the ordinary 2 D-Cell kind with fairly good bulbs and were decent quality. However, in the last several years, I have set out to replace each and every one of them with LED lights. And for mainly this reason: The cost of batteries is soon greater than the cost of the flashlight, if you use it very much. Also, while I have never had an LED flashlight bulb burn out or just quit, regular bulbs used to quit on me from time to time in the past.

The best LED replacement I have found for the most common house and car flashlight is the Ray-O-Vac "Brilliant Solutions" variety. These can be had at Wal-Mart, and are fairly inexpensive. Oddly, they are available on the Net for about double the price.

Naming convention for most of the Ray-O-Vac flashlights is fairly straightforwards. If you see 2AA in the name, it takes 2 AA batteries. If you see 3AAA in the name, it takes 3 AAA batteries.

Brilliant Solutions also includes a $1 conventional flashlight that takes 2 AA batteries, and might be useful somewhere you hope to never need a flashlight, but must keep one for safety reasons.

I believe I have written in the past about the headlamp I use at work, and I still think the Ray-O-Vac 3-in-1 LED Headlamp is the best headlamp on the market for under $30 apiece. I don't know if it is still in production, but it is still intermittently available from Amazon for about $13 (but you have to buy them in the 2 pack for $26).

For an extra bright flashlight, I recently bought Ray-O-Vac Sportsman 3W 2AA DC-DC Regulated Flashlight that is rated 80 Lumens. That model may not be available, but similar models are. Expect to pay between $20 and $35 each. They are water and impact resistant, and use a twist bottom switch with push button momentary. I don't particularly like that type of switch, but it is the most trouble free and longest lasting type of switch around.

The 5 LED basic headlamp I used to get on line for about $6.50 is now available at Wal-Mart near the checkout for $5.75 and will probably show up at places like Family Dollar stores soon. This is a very generic headlamp that shows up from time to time and place to place with inconsistent model and UPC numbers.

I waited for some time for Ray-O-Vac to make a caplight that I liked, but Energizer beat them to it. They make a caplight and a headlight that are virtually the same, for around $15. Has two red LED's and three white LED's. Runs on 2 AAA batteries.

New Gasoline Blend E15

This is a bit of a stub article, I didn't have time to fully flesh it out and show the conclusion.

Recently, the EPA decided to "allow" the introduction of E15, a 15% ethanol blend, at gas pumps across the US. Of course, allow is a bit of a misnomer, since once it is allowed, it will not be long before it is forced upon us. This decision to bring this product to the market was at the request of "Growth Energy," a coalition of U.S. ethanol supporters, and 54 ethanol manufacturers.

There had been an alcohol blend "wall" that allowed only 10% ethanol alcohol to be added to most fuel, except E85 blend, for use only in "flex fuel" vehicles. There has been a lot of hype and myth surrounding the mostly forced introduction of ethanol into gasoline, but some fairly balanced articles can be found, if one looks.

Of course, the problems are not made any easier to understand by some quasi-technicle web sites running obvious propaganda pieces. There is a fairly good rebuttal to this is found in blog somewhat off the beaten path. Among other things, he makes the point that, while the government is telling automobile owners etanol is perfectly safe, it is telling airplane owners and operators it is dangerous to their engines and fuel systems, and not to use it.

Some good information was published in the Orlando Sentenal.
(I don't have much experiance with the Orlando Sentenal or the Greenfield Reporter, but hope the link will remain good.)

The Google string I used to find most of this is:
gasoline ethanol alcohol problems older cars trucks

When researching these things, one thing to remember is that any recent article mentioning carbon emissions is likely propaganda, since man made global climate change was completely debunked in 2009.

Annual Gas Price Forecast

As promised, here are my annual gas price forecast, and it looks a lot like last year. While I did blow it badly a couple of years ago, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 7 years, and last year was not that far off, even with the economy doing much worse than many people predicted. The only thing that caught me off guard was that China's economy did worse than I expected.


The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.54 early next May.


This is in areas where gasoline taxes are low, and where the price has been hovering around $2.49 to $2.56 for the last couple of months. This web page will give an idea of the price of gas around the country. For next spring's pricing, just add another dollar a gallon.


In reality, I don't think it will get quite that high, but as I pointed out in previous forecasts, I do this for budget forecasting purposes, so if it doesn't quite get that high, there is no harm.

The ever increasing role of China, the recession the ongoing and somewhat deepening recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate (which I don't think we will see this next year) are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will be the most important factors in the coming year.


Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $76 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$3.04 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.54 per gallon.


I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption, or for overt destruction of sources (think war). Neither of those are a factor this year. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the market prices already have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use.


One concern is the ongoing oil spill (even though the well is now capped) and the disastrous handling of it because of both the incompetence of British Petroleum and the congressional grandstanding in our Federal Government. One consequence that is just now beginning to materialize is the movement of drillers out of US waters. This has the potential of worsening our recession AND increasing the price of gas at the pump by more than a dollar a gallon within a couple of years.

Successful LED Lights

This article is mostly historical, as I give some thoughts on most of the LED Flashlights I have owned in the past. Eventually every light must be replaced. Especially working in a somewhat harsh environment, like I do. If God is willing, I will write an article on my current lights and post it in a few days.

One of the first Headlamps I owned was a "Kids Adventure" headlamp, that I can't find any more. It would run for a night or two on 2xAA batteries. I replaced it with a cheap headlamp I got from a supply house that used 3AAA batteries and had 5 LED's. It would run for several nights and gave off more light. Around the same time I bought a 14 LED flashlight that also took 3AAA batteries, and it did a pretty good job, but the color spectrum was decidedly deficiant, so I would also carry a little krypton bulb flashlight to check colors when I needed to do that.

This was back around 2005, and about that time a serious cave explorer near Boston published an article that said White LED's Suck. Naturally, that slowed down my desire to buy a good LED flashlight, even after the rough treatment and harsh environment killed off my 14 LED flashlight.

However, around that time, I got a 3 LED Mag-Light conversion kit, and while it wasn't perfect (no focusing), it did create more light for much longer battery life. And the light color out of it was pretty good.

Also, by chance I ran across a TaskForce 1W LED flashlight that bragged: "Super High intensity LED flashlight" (it used to be available at many department stores and hardware stores for about $20 but not available any more). It was marked half price, so I snatched it up and it was the best flashlight I owned for a couple of years. It ran on 3 AA batteries, had pretty good water tightness (better than the one above). It was brighter than the 14 LED flashlight above, and the better focus provided far more reach. The body of the flashlight had a couple of weak points, but those were fixed with electrical tape and I used it for about 4 years, until the switch wore out.

As I used it, though, I noticed the LED got progressively dimmer over the years, unitl at the end, it was about half the brightness of when I got it. I found out that this is normal, although it happened a little quicker than normal. LED's don't usually burn out, but they grow progressively dimmer after hundreds of hours of use.

In the mean time, I bought a cheap 3W LED flashlight that did no better than the 1W TaskForce light and did not last long at all. One of the problems with this light is that it ran on 2AA batteries, and without a regulator (an expensive add on, at that time) it could not achieve full brightness, nor would it stay bright very long. The beating it took riding around with me on the job soon broke the parts loose inside and it died.

One other nice thing I bought a few years back was a 12 LED lantern. Runs on 4 D cells, the light is blueish and not very bright. But it does the job I got it for. It gives me an area light, brighter than candles and will run for days during power outages.

It will probably be next week before I post
about my current assortment of lights,
mostly made by Ray-O-Vac

Todays LED Lights

While the hype of Green House Gases and Global Warming has been shown to be a complete hoax, there have been some good technologies that came out of the push for being greener than green. One of those better technologies is the vast improvments in LED's

While white LED's have been around since before the year 2000, the quality of light was very poor. One article, written several years back was actually titled "Why White LED's Suck," The author had a point. The brightness available from the early "bright white" LED that he tried was lacking, and the color rendition was horible.

I did some previous research and
posted three articles on LED's back
in December 2006 on this blog.

Geek Alert: the following discussions repeatedly refer to 1W, 3W, 5W and 7W. The W is short for Watt. These are power consumption ratings of various lights, and generally just mean we are using more power from the batteries, getting more light, producing more heat, running the batteries down faster, and in some cases (like 5 and 7W LED's) running risk of damaging the LED's.

But things have gotten better. The light from 1W LED's is somewhat brighter, but much more importantly, the color of the light has improved. And over past several years, not only have manufactures learned to coax more power through the LED's for even brighter light (hence 3W LED's and even a few 5W and 7W LED's) from essentially the same 1 W Luxeon

Even more resently, a couple of new LED's have emerged. The Seoul SSC P4 and the Cree XR-E. Both produce more light and can be used for 1W to maybe 5W lights. These show great promise for brighter lights and longer lasting batteries, but are just out of reach for my budget right now. There are even more advanced LED's, but these get progressively more expensive, putting them out of my reach.

As LED lights have improved, they have rapidly gained a well earned acceptance as the light of choice for almost all battery powered applications. This is because of the high cost of electricity from almost all battery (and some generator) sources. I touched on the cost of batteries and generators for power back in October 2008 in this blog. Suffice it to say that power from rechagable batteries or a generator will cost you 20 or more times what it costs coming out of an outlet, and power from non rechargable batteries will cost you about 10 times as much as rechargable batteries (over the long run).

Still, with limited exceptions, like the under $3 LED night lights and some Christmas lights, LED's are not really a good deal for household lighting. The difference in efficiancy between them and flourescent lights isn't enough to reccommend their use.

Sources for more information. Nearly all of the information in this article comes from discussions on the CandlePower Forum and from the Flashlight Reviews website. At these websites, you can find people who can only be described as addicted to lights of all kinds, especially flashlights. Some even modify or manufacture their own devices. (Actually, I suspect some of those who post there are flashlight or other tool manufactures.)

I expect to post on some specific flashlights I use, sometime in the next couple of weeks.

another review of CFL's

Well, it is getting warmer - or at least less cold. If you are at all concerned with your electric bill, one of the things you probably consider is whether to switch to compact fluorescent lights (CFL's) I write this at the end of winter, since any extra heat from your lights in the winter is no problem, as it merely warms your home. In the summer, which will be here soon, extra heat must be pumped out by your AC, so a 100 watt incandescent bulb actually costs you for about 120 watts of electricity.


I have written about this subject in the past:
In my first article I recommended them and warned that LED lights are still not ready for household use. In the second article, I clarified that I didn't mean to go out and buy one for every light in the house, discussed improvements they have made in quality of light and size of the bulbs. And in the third article, I said that I am still not satisfied with the state of the art, that they need to get a little smaller yet, but that it may put a little green in your pockets if you switch some of your bulbs. I have switched about half of mine.


So, here is this year's update:

Most of us have pretty good electric rates this year, so I am of the opinion that this isn't too critical yet, and anyone who thinks they don't want to buy CFL's this year won't really lose a lot. And for that matter, I am disappointed in how little progress there has been in the quality of CFL's. They are still half an inch or so longer than their incandescent counterparts (I thought I found some that were the same size, but am very disappointed with the quality of the light output).

On the other hand, the price has come down, so you can get good quality CFL's for $3 or 4$ each (the ones I bought that I didn't like the quality of were 6 for $10, so stick to brands you trust) rather than the $6 to $8 they used to cost. Don't believe the reports you hear of them quitting after only a month or so, those people either had an ax to grind, or were just extremely unlucky. I have bought about two dozen over the last 10 years, and use dozens of them at work, and I have only had one of mine, and maybe a couple at work, die prematurely. Buy four at a time, from a descent quality name brand, and the economics should work in your favor.

LED lights are still not ready for home use, except if you find the little 1/4 watt LED night lights for a couple dollars. Those seem to be good. And a friend of mine has had good luck with LED Christmas lights. But overall, I only recommend them for things that run on batteries, and I will write more about that later.

annual gas price forecast

As promised, here are my annual gas price forecasts. While I did blow it last year, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 6 years, and the one time I did blow it, if they did follow my advice by living very frugally, no harm should have come from it.

The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.22 early next May.

The ever increasing role of China, the recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will mostly cancel out the other two, leaving the economics in balance. A slow increase in consumption, coupled with some optimism in the markets, and a steadily increasing cost of production seem to be the prime factors in driving up the cost in the next several months.

Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $68 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$2.68 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.18 per gallon.

I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the prices have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use. But this year, I don't think those need be applied.

some optimism in the markets (I don't agree)

why I think economic forecasts may be overly optimistic

Bernanke Says

A Jobless Recovery - but with extra pain.

Trip Report

I celebrated my apparent miscalculation on gas prices this fall by taking a trip to see some people that I don't get to see very often. The massive downturn in the economy, sparked by some slimeballs in the politically driven lending business has had an upside. Lower gas consumption has led to (rocket science alert) lower gas prices.

While the road trip was largely uneventful (praise God), a couple of things did stick out. First, I stayed at the M-Star Motel, formerly known as the Royalty Inn in Searcy Arkansas. While this place is rated as only one star, I would give it at least two stars because it has so consistently delivered good quality service.

The other thing I noticed is that while it has become more important than ever to keep your tires inflated, it seems to be getting harder to find an air hose to do so. Not a good commentary on our society.

Efficient lighting pt 3

In the first two articles, I promoted the virtues of the newer CFL's. But, while they have come a long way, they are still not perfect. After much searching and measuring of CFL's, I am still not satisfied with the state of the art.

This is not to say I don't think they are a good idea, I do think we should be heading that way, but we (as a society) are not there yet. The best "green" products should put "green" in our pockets. If they don't, we need to rethink them. CFL's put green in our pockets, but only when they fit in the sockets and when they get a lot of use (like my desk, stove, garage, and reading lamps). A quick count says I have about 10 CFL's and 10 regular light bulbs in use in my home. These numbers probably won't change much for a couple years.

LED lamps for household use are not really ready for prime time, yet, but there may be exceptions. Several kinds of Christmas lights (and I assume similar lights for other functions or holidays) use LED's. Also, a standard night light uses over $5 a year in electricity. I have found some LED night lights that cost less than $3 each (and use about $.25 a year in electricity) making them worthwhile if you just need something so you won't stub your toe in the dark. The problem I had with the reading lamp was the cost, which was in excess of $30, making even a single failure unacceptable.

I tackled efficient household lighting because it seems to be on every body's mind. Talked about in the press, and advertised on TV. But in reality, it is a pretty small part of the picture, dwarfed by the costs of air conditioning, construction, manufacturing, and transportation. This is one reason cost of the light bulbs is so important - it represents energy use in manufacturing and transporting the light bulbs to you. And if there is no payback on that, there is no payoff in energy conservation.

Some useful links:
usatoday 2008-02-28-light-bulb_N.htm

EnergyInvestmentStrategies dot com 2008 cfl-problems coming to light - good news for leds

energystar partners/downloads/meetings/Karney.pdf

Scientific American - the switch is on

stupidevilbastard-comments (the days of the incandescent light bulb in the US are numbered)

forums CNet message thread

BuildersSquare dot com Light Bulbs Buying Guide 45

Efficient lighting pt 2

A few days ago, in the first part of this article I wrote that the advances in compact fluorescent lights(CFL's) and major reductions in price, have made it a lot better choice for lighting than even a few years ago. This doesn't mean that you should go out and buy CFL's for every light in the house, but it does mean it may be time to begin moving in that direction. I would start with replacing any light that tends to burn for several hours every day. (I started with my reading lamp in my office. It is on the same switch as everything else in my office, and so runs about 10-15 hours a day.)

Two particular improvements have made the biggest difference. The first one is the addition of "bright white" and "daylight" CFL's to the older "warm white" and "cool white" bulbs. (In incandescent bulbs there is also "soft white" but I haven't seen it in CFL's and don't really know if it refers to a "color," or just the fact that the frosting on the glass softens the glare.) OK, "daylight" fluorescent lights have been around for several years, but they were always too expensive to consider. The other improvement is somewhat smaller CFL's are now available.

Each of these "colors" refers to what colors of light are more pronounced in the spectrum. Warm white has extra red and orange. Cool white has extra green and blue. Daylight is supposed to have a spectrum similar to the actual spectrum of daylight. Bright white seems to be a compromise between daylight and cool white, and the price is a compromise too.

About cost. The newer "colors" are somewhat more expensive to buy, and also put out less lumens than the cool white's, but they are worth it. The old (two years ago) advice was to buy the cool white bulbs, and go up one size. That means you replace a 40 watt incandescent with a 60W equivalent CFL. With the new "bright white" CFL's, this may or may not be necessary.

Even going up one size with the old bulbs wasn't satisfactory because the light "color" made things look different. Many people (mostly but not always, women) didn't like the way it made them look. One person said it made them look jaundiced. Chefs also didn't like what it made their food look like. (Anyone heard of green eggs and ham - in US Army mess halls? Compliments of cool white bulbs over scrambled eggs)

The newer colors fix that. There is a problem though. With the bright white, if the light is too strong, some people are bothered by the excess brightness. I went up one size AND switched to bright whites in my living room and ran into this problem. Too bright.

The one my wife complains about being too bright are also just long enough to be directly visible. They stick out of their shade about 1/2 inch, which of course is another problem. CFL's will not fit in many fixtures. This is also the other improvement I mentioned in the second paragraph. There has been a steady improvement in making the CFL's closer to the size of standard light bulbs. This has all but been accomplished. I don't think it will be 100% for several more years, but they have come quite a ways. I think, eventually, LED lights will have to be used in the smallest of fixtures.

I also tried a DayLight bulb. Went up two sizes, to a 75W equivalent, and while it is decidedly whiter and brighter than the 60W equivalent bright white CFL's, I don't think I would recommend it, unless you are really have a critical need for color balance (And there is still no guarantee you will like the color balance).

Efficient lighting pt 1

While some time ago, I began a discussion of LED lights, I think the time is here to begin discussion of efficient lighting in general. Part of the reason for this is that electricity (including batteries) went up about 40% in the last two years, with another 30% rise expected in the next two years.

I began experimenting with LED lights a couple years ago, and found that the technology had matured to the point where they were useful in flashlights, or other battery powered applications. In addition to flashlights I also bought headlamps, lanterns, puck lights, and a reading lamp. The only light to fail out of these was the reading lamp. It was also the only one to run on household electric power, instead of batteries.

For applications that run on household electric power, I recommend fluorescent lighting. The advances made in this field a couple of years ago, and now becoming economical are terrific. In addition, the cost factor in batteries (battery power tends to be about 2000 times the cost of household electric power) makes the economics for the two situations quite different.

None of the lights I have bought are cutting edge, and I don't recommend buying cutting edge technology (living on the cutting edge is a good way to bleed green). However, they are fairly new, and most of the time I bought stuff that had been on the market for only a year or two.

I will, of course, have to write more on this subject, but there is plenty of time. The cost of good lights is going down, and the cost of electricity shouldn't be going up for a few more months.

Forcasting Gas Prices

I seem to be a few days late with this forecast. Things are changing on the world stage. I estimated a little low for 2008 prices, and they continued going up for more than a month longer than usual. The price drops we have been experiencing for about the past three weeks is the one we usually got around Memorial Day in past years, and we might not have gotten it at all, were it not for China curtailing driving during the Olympics. More on that later.

Right now, here is "The Bottom Line," right up front.
My forecast for May 2009 gas prices is $5.83 per gallon.
Sounds high, but here is how I got there.

I have been doing these forecasts for about 6 years now (but only about three years in this blog), and have refined my formula each of the past three years. It has however, been getting harder to forecast lately because of China's (and India's) ever increasing role in consumption. This summer gas prices have dropped off in August, but that may be due to China curtailing driving to keep the air cleaner for the Olympics. This may not pan out in future years, and the price may remain high until late fall, or may not drop at all and simply rise again the following spring.


My current formula for
the next April/May price spike is as follows:
Take the predominant price of crude oil
in (late) July (and some early Aug)
that would be $120 a barrel (more on this later),
divide by 25 (giving $4.80) and
add $.65 to account for the taxes ($5.45)
and factor in about 7% for inflation.
The result is a forecast of $5.83 per gallon for gas.


As noted in the first linked article below, these forecasts are not accurate enough for buying and selling futures on the commodities markets. I find it more and more difficult to get this across to others, but speculation is at best a gamble, as many who speculated on August oil found out. The rapid drop in oil prices made it difficult for me to do this forecast, but there are some speculators out there who likely went bankrupt. This forecast, however, should be useful enough for writing a budget for next years transportation costs. As such I hope city, state and county budget planners will not ignore the rising cost of fuel as they have in the past.

Here are some past articles I have written
My original forecast in this blog and my reasons for doing these forecasts
Discussion of my technique for forecasting.
Early spring discussion of gas prices and my formula.
Discussion of (in)accuracy in my forecast.
Discussion of Ethanol's failure to pan out as a fuel.
Epidemic of imports from China.
Gas Price forecast for May 2008.
Forecast update to account for inflation.

I think this article could also be the rational for choosing a car that is stingy on gas for next year's driving season. I did, and am glad for it.

Ray-O-Vac

I began worrying about this company a few months ago. They have historically been known for providing batteries in larger quantities to those of us who use quite a few batteries. This means that as we began embracing LED's, and our use of batteries has dwindled, they might have a hard time staying around. This became more of a concern for me when the local Lowes hardware store stopped carrying Ray-O-Vac batteries (leaving me with virtually no reason to go there).

Should not have worried, though. If I had kept up with the technicle news, I would have known that they have diversified their product line. I discovered this when I needed a new flashlight for my wife's car (you will recall that I work outdoors, and often at night, so I have several lights for myself). As I browsed through the displays, I noticed a couple of new LED flashlights from Ray-O-Vac, and that got my curriosity going.

I have been lamenting that the technology for the headlamp I use at work is getting a bit dated, but it looks like they are creating an assortment of products that I may switch to in the future. This one that I use has been reliable far longer than the ones I used in the past. The switch is getting some wear, but still reliably turns on (the detents are worn almost smooth, however). The only part that seems to be wearing completely out is the elastic headband.

In case the engineers at Ray-O-Vac are listening, a bit less red light in the night vision setting and a 1-watt LED instead of the kripton lamp would be an improvement, and maybe market a replacement headband for when they wear out, would be nice. Otherwise keep up the good work.

For the rest of you, they have several methods for sales outlets, one of which is Rayovac Direct, and no, this isn't a paid post. I don't do that (yet), but I do think a visit to their website is worth the trip.

Gas Price Forcast

It is time for my annual forecast of gas prices for the next fiscal year. This is not meant to be anywhere nearly accurate enough to help anyone invest in commodities markets. It is really meant to (and is a reaction to the failure of) allow people and organisations to figure into their budget, the right amount for gas expenditures for the next year.

Bottom line right here on top:
Expect to be paying $2.65 this fall
and expect prices to spike
to $3.46 next April and May.

Gas varies seasonally, and right now it is running high, but slowly declining as it does every summer. It will spike upwards if any hurricanes travel through the Gulf of Mexico (higher costs and risks involved). It will drop further in the fall, usually near the end of September, but sometimes the drop isn't seen until November. It will begin to rise again next February, and will spike upwards around the end of April.

These seasonal changes reflect mostly our driving habits, but also reflect the increased cost for summer blends required to beat the evaporation that otherwise would take place as summer heats up.

My formula for next April May price spike is as follows:
Take the predominant price of crude oil in July, (that was $74, I think) divide by 25 (giving $2.96) and add $.50 to account for the taxes.
Therefore my forecast for next May is $3.46

The last factor will vary widely by location, as taxes and EPA regulations add more in many locations. The table below only gives a partial picture, I add an extra $.10 to the tax listed in that table in areas where transportation is easy and EPA regulations don't aggravate. In "LA", Chicago, Deming or Las Vegas New Mexico, and some other parts, add extra.
Gasoline Tax Statistics by State 2002

A different method is to look at the price you were paying in May this year. Subtract $2.60 from it and use the remainder instead of the $.50 in the figures above.

Time for a course change: Ethanol

About a year ago, someone with more knowlege than me wrote that Ethanol is a crock ( CombatEffective Article ). I replied "yes, but it is a good crock" and went into detail on several reasons why it is good that we are burning some Ethanol in our gasoline.

But often in life, course changes must be made.

Even as I wrote that Ethanol is a good crock, I knew that there would be a time for a course change (and I said so in my comments at that time). I didn't know it would be so soon.

We are now producing and using a substantial amount of ethanol. Especially corn based ethanol. Maybe too much. Businessweek has a good chain of article on the debate of how much is too much. (also, see notes below) ethanol-facts


We are not using it just for E85 blend, but also as an additive to replace MTBE in most regular gasoline.

The use of corn for Ethanol is beginning to impact our food supply (although only it is only a minimal impact, with petrolium prices being a bigger impact) and if the current trends continue, this could get very problematic.

GM and Ford, (and others) are scamming us on the Flexfuel by getting a break in their CAFE standards that is out of proportion with reality. Public Citizen Article

Therefore three things must change:

1. Subsidies for making Ethanol from corn must be reduced and in the interim some of them should go for Ethanol from other sources.
2. The CAFE credit for flexfuel cars must be reduced or done away with.
   
3. Continue or increase concentration on renewable fuels other than Ethanol.

These course changes should be a slow taper off of the subsidies we have used in the past and should promote other sources of Ethanol and other renewable fuels.

Notes:
1. Businessweek-Ethanol
2. http://gog2g.com has a variety of good statistics on Ethanol and Petrolium - especially in their May and June 2007 archives)

gas prices

I heard on the news this morning that gas prices are at an all time high. $3.30 nationwide average. I still don't think they will make it to my earlier prediction of $3.60. And I predicted that for Texas, which is still just under $3 a gallon.

They also said it was aggravated by a high number of refineries out of service for spring maintenance, and quoted Shell as saying they had had "a couple" fires at refineries. Must have been small ones. I only heard about one, and I think it was BP.

I hear today is a "gas out," when we are supposed to abstain from buying gas for a day. That won't hurt them. Buy a 4 cylinder. If everybody did that, the oil companies would feel it.

In other humorous news, I heard a Citgo advertisement saying they:
"fuel our way of life"
I wonder how many people realize, they also fund the enemy.

TRex

UPDATE: the $3.30 above should have been $3.10
The market peaked early last year, but later this year, demonstrating a self correcting feature inherant in markets. I suspect strongly the (average national) price will remain above $3 a gallon for several more weeks. It will go down this fall, as it always does in the fall (sometimes late fall).

gas prices going up

As I said in my previous post ("tis the season") this morning, gas prices have begun to rise. How high will they go? I can't say exactly - but it is looking like $3.00 a gallon will be fairly common in many places in late April. After June begins, if there are no disasters, they should drop back 20 t0 30 cents from their high.

I said this morning, I am looking at adjusting my formula for forcasting next spring's gas prices. Right now, the following looks promising:

Take the price of a barrel of oil as it stands
throughout most of July, devide by 30.

If the price runs about $60 a barrel for most
of the month - that would be $2.00.

Then add the tax. This is what is written
on the pump. Around here it says something
like (and I haven't looked lately) 50 cents.

Add those two numbers to get the price to expect
next April. In the example that would be $2.50

Using that formula, the April prices for last April
and this April would have been $2.73 and $2.90

This seems like it might be a little low, so I may have to adjust it. I would like some commentary, as to what more to do to make these numbers more useful. Right now they are aimed at allowing, for instance, police departments and schools to forcast their fule budgets.

TRex