Monday, June 09, 2014

Monthly Economic Post, Part 3

Payroll numbers are out, and again, I am letting Mish Shedlock do the heavy lifting.  His report is not as detailed as some of the ones he has done in the past, but then, this month is not that noteworthy. Employment numbers are up, but not quite enough to keep up with population growth.  Manufacturing, likewise, is up, but not enough to keep up with population growth.  Another stagnant month in the actual economy.

The market have risen for another month, as they have for the past dozen months.  Not to be confused with the economy, the markets are rising because people invest, and they invest because they think the markets will rise.  This will continue until enough of those betting on the markets need to use that money for something else, and then there will be a race to the bottom.

Thursday, June 05, 2014

Monthly Economic Outlook Pt. 2

It appears there is real growth in the Manufacturing Sector, as the ISM is above my benchmark of 52.5, which is where I consider real growth to start.

While this growth doesn't seem to be adequate to account for the market bubble, it may be more in line with my expectations that 2014 would be a year of good economic growth. This may be the growth I predicted in August of last year, and again in December of last year. 

My feelings on this are "well, it's about time." The malaise we experienced from Feb until now had me concerned we might just remain stagnant for an extended period, possibly running into years.

Of course, in a way, that would have been a good thing, as the good economy of the next few months (I don't know how many) will inevitably be followed by the economy turning downwards again, and another recession. 

The Employment situation from Bureau of Labor Statistics is supposed to come out later this morning, and it will complete the current picture.

UPDATE: It appears the "stupid money" I predicted would surge into the markets may have already begun.  'Mish' Shedlock has an article on his blog showing a surge in risky investments that may be larger than the surges that preceded the bubble collapses of 2000 and 2007.