Thursday, June 05, 2014

Monthly Economic Outlook Pt. 2

It appears there is real growth in the Manufacturing Sector, as the ISM is above my benchmark of 52.5, which is where I consider real growth to start.

While this growth doesn't seem to be adequate to account for the market bubble, it may be more in line with my expectations that 2014 would be a year of good economic growth. This may be the growth I predicted in August of last year, and again in December of last year. 

My feelings on this are "well, it's about time." The malaise we experienced from Feb until now had me concerned we might just remain stagnant for an extended period, possibly running into years.

Of course, in a way, that would have been a good thing, as the good economy of the next few months (I don't know how many) will inevitably be followed by the economy turning downwards again, and another recession. 

The Employment situation from Bureau of Labor Statistics is supposed to come out later this morning, and it will complete the current picture.

UPDATE: It appears the "stupid money" I predicted would surge into the markets may have already begun.  'Mish' Shedlock has an article on his blog showing a surge in risky investments that may be larger than the surges that preceded the bubble collapses of 2000 and 2007. 

No comments: