The Latest Islamic Terror Attack

Well, 5 days ago, an Islamic Terrorist attacked the Army Post, Fort Hood. Today, the PC machinery is in full battle dress. Including, it seems, the White House. We already know the attacker, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, a lifelong Muslim had been radicalized over the past several years, by his ties to radical clerics in the Washington DC and Virginia areas. These facts came out of sources who knew him at Walter Reed and the FBI.

Now it appears a gag order has been issued. And like any good government gag order, those gagged are not allowed to say they have been gagged. No one in the Army, it seems, is allowed to say this was a Radical Islamist. He seems to suddenly have battle fatigue. Except he has never been in battle. Oh, well, facts are an inconvenient thing to the Obama White House.

Good links:
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/137567980
http://muslimsagainstsharia.blogspot.com/2009/11/fbi-blew-off-killer-e-mail-to-al-qaeda.html
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/fbi_blew_off_killer_mail_to_al_qaeda_Bqi6bMwstWFXefjamp9CdJ

The FBI knew for nearly a year before his murderous Fort Hood rampage that psycho Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan had repeatedly contacted al Qaeda - but the blundering agency last night admitted it dismissed the lead. The clueless G-men said that at the time, they simply chalked up the chilling e-mails between Hasan and a radical imam and other terror-tied Islamic figures to his "research" as an Army shrink.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574525831785724114.html?mod=rss_com_mostcommentart

It was an act of terrorism by a man with a record of expressing virulent, anti-American, pro-jihadist sentiments. All were conspicuous signs of danger his Army superiors chose to ignore.

What is hard to ignore, now, is the growing derangement on all matters involving terrorism and Muslim sensitivities. Its chief symptoms: a palpitating fear of discomfiting facts and a willingness to discard those facts and embrace the richest possible variety of ludicrous theories as to the motives behind an act of Islamic terrorism. All this we have seen before but never in such naked form. The days following the Fort Hood rampage have told us more than we want to know, perhaps, about the depth and reach of this epidemic.

As a footnote:
The Blogger spell checker insists there are
no such words as Islamist, or Jihadist, or Al Qaeda.

House Passes Socialist Medicine

The House, late last night, passed the Socialist Health Care Act.

Sort of proves that a democracy cannot live forever.
Hat tip to Neal Boortz.

From Alexander Tyler. No, he wasn't writing about the United States. This quote is well over one hundred years old. Tyler was writing about the fall of the Athenian Republic.

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage."

Folly is easy to find

The Episcopal Church, and more recently the Evangelical Lutheran Church have recently dropped their ban on clergy involved in same sex relationships,

There is noise that the Methodist Church forged ties to and is providing money to Muslim Churches. Oh, yeah, it was going to tsunami relief. What? You mean they couldn't find any Christian Church to link up to? Or do they not know the meaning of the phrase "unequally yoked" (2Corinthians 6:14)

Much like there are many wrong answers to the question: "what is 2+2?" there are many avenues of heresy today. The definition of Christian teachings is not as narrow or well defined as 2+2, however, the Bible is the one and only arbitrator for the Word of God. They are one and the same.

While there may be a lot of room for disagreement over some smaller points of interpretation of scripture, many of the areas delved into by heretics is vastly outside of the definitions acceptable to Christianity.

Well, it is officially a swine flu emergency

Well, ths swine flu is now a declared pandemic, and even President Obama has gotten in on the act by declareing it a national emergency. I say this is an act because the H1N1 is still considered likely to do less damage than its seasonal counterparts. This is like calling a national emergency for a routine severe thunderstorm here in Texas. And if he really wanted to make a difference, where was he on this subject last May, when he could have made a difference?

In the mean time, the shortage of Children's Tamiflu, and this is not a production problem, since there is more than enough of the drug available. It is a problem with finding people willing to mix it into the right dose for children. Something any pharmacist can do. Of course this may change, as projections are for the epidemic to outstrip availability of the drug withing a couple of months.

Of course, all of this is made a little harder by those spreading rumors about the safety of the vaccine. I say a little harder, cause with not enough vaccine to go around, my thought is that you expend the vaccine on those willing to take it and ignore the nay sayers. Let the Darwin Effect take care of them. Let me be clear on my stand. The vaccine is relatively safe. No drug or vaccine is completely safe, but in this case, the risk associated with not getting the vaccine is much greater.

Characteristics of a good Church

It is important for a Christian to be in regular company of other Christians. (It is commanded in the Bible too) Christians call this fellowship, but most people today don't know what that word means, so call it what you want. (the Bible calls it the gathering of yourselves together)

I have been brainstorming about some things to look for, if you are looking for a new Church. (or if you are looking for a Church, for the first time in a long time)

I undertook this idea for a number of reasons, first and foremost, because a couple of my recent pastors (my Church has changed pastors twice in the past 7 years) have stressed the importance of being involved with a Church.

Since you are looking for a group of Christians to spend some significant time with, both for company and for learning, you want to find a Church that is well suited to you.

And with so many Churches teaching incorrectly, or even teaching outright heresy, how can you determine which Church is the best? In my local area, there are enough Baptist, Lutheran, Christian, Bible, Nazarene and Assembly of God Churches that you could go to a different one every Sunday for a year.

The following should be helpful to those who are searching.

The Church Building
It should be ordinary, unspectacular. A Church building is a building for meetings and teaching. It is not, in itself, holy or sacred. The last thing you want is to try to go to a Church that meets in a building that intimidates you.

The Congregation.
Look for a medium sized congregation. This can be anywhere from 100 to 1000 people. Just so you are comfortable. Don't like to stand out? Look for a little larger one. Afraid of crowds, or feel like you will just get lost in the crowd and not find any one to be friends with? Look for a smaller one.

The Preaching and Teaching.
Of course, the most important aspect of a church is the Preaching and Teaching. There is no substitute (except as in the next paragraph) for Expository Preaching (which is really teaching). Expository Preaching is a system where the Pastor goes through a portion of the Bible, one chapter or even one verse at a time, teaching (or exposing) the Scriptures. The Bible specifically requires pastors and teachers for the equipping of the saints.

This means they are commanded to prepare Christians for service to Christ. Since this is their purpose, Expository Preaching is required. In addition, if a Pastor teaches on subjects straight through substantial portions of the Scriptures, it is very difficult for him to stray very far from the true meaning of those Scriptures, since the Scriptures, themselves, are tools for their own true interpretation. (This doesn't mean we can't have some disagreement on some interpretation, but the longer we study the scriptures, the smaller those disagreements should become, in relation to the whole.)

As a second best alternative to Expository Preaching, I suppose a liturgical format is OK, if they offer a Sunday School or other weekly (or twice weekly) expository study. Some information on the liturgical format:
Lutherans
Liturgical_1
Liturgical_2

At any rate, if they preach on the same subject three Sundays in a row, it is time to find a different Church, as they have become wrapped around the axle, and are no longer equipping the saints, but rather indulging their own social pet peeves. This is not quite the same as teaching from the same passage three weeks in a row, but close. A passage can be looked at from three different points of view, giving three different subjects. I would cut them a little more slack in this case = to maybe four Sundays. At any rate, if they are not moving on, teaching through the Scriptures, then it is time for you to move on.

Offerings and Tithes
Some (rare) Churches never "pass the plate" to take an offering. Some have been known to pass the plate three times in one service. Well, if they pass the plate more than once - except on rare occasions, then, again, it is time to find a different Church. On the other hand, if you are sitting indoors and the lights are on, someone has to pay the bills. And many Pastors find that leading a Church is a full time job, so they need to get paid. (The Bible actually directs a Church to support those who evangelize and those who teach the Scriptures)

But the Pastor should live like his flock. If most of the people who attend the Church live in apartments, or small unassuming houses, then the Pastor should live in a small unassuming house. If most in the congregation live in nice middle class homes, then they should expect
him to live in a comparable house.

If the Pastor lives like a king and the flock struggles to get by, if they constantly parade "successful stories of faith" across the stage or if you hear "let your seed reflect your need" (this is a specific heresy) or anything like it - run. Again, this would indicate that it is time to find another Church.

If you attend Sunday School, or any other theological classes offered by the Church, they should be Bible Based - not over dependant on other material. This doesn't mean they can't use other materials, but the classes should be centered on the Bible.

The Works of the Church
A Church should (unless they, themselves, are destitute) support Charities and Missions - this is one of the biggest advantages of belonging to a Church. If you have read things I have said in the past about charitable giving, then you know there is a hazard to giving individually. Namely that the money might not go where it should, or that they will spend much of it on trying to get you to give more. With a Church, one person can do the research on a charity for the whole group, and the charity only has one point of contact to waste their efforts on, if they try to get more.

The budget, along with some other Church documents, such as their Constitution and bylaws, should be open to inspection by members. But not necessarily by just anyone, so as a compromise, I would highly recommend inquiring about them before formally joining any Church.

Pastor and Deacons should be approachable. They are in charge of setting the overall direction of the Church and serving the spiritual needs of the congregation, but they are not Lords. And if they are not approachable, they cannot fulfil their Biblical Duties.

Conclusion.
So applying the above half a baker's dozen tests will narrow the choice of Churches by probably 90%. Possibly to zero - in which case you have to look for the closest thing you can find, and I would say that Expository Preaching is the most important test. Or you may have too look some distance to find a Church. Here in Texas, I know a few people who travel 30 or more miles to find a true Bible Based Church. But after learning the Bible for myself, I think it is worth it.

Proverbs 29:27
The righteous detest the dishonest;
the wicked detest the upright.

UPDATE 27Oct09: I discovered, this morning, that my links to the definition of Expository Preaching were broken. I fixed them, but at the same time, found that I wasn't satisfied with the definition they linked to. I will be looking for a more precise, yet pragmatic definition. But in the mean time, I found the following thoughts, which I want to provide.
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-09
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-10
http://ralbertmohler.org/commentary_read.php?cdate=2005-08-11

Blog Labels

This is a detailed list of my LABELS.



Listed here for the purpose of making it easier to find any articles on any subject that I have written on. I will modify this article from time to time, to correct errors or in case I add some new topic of interest.


BIBLE_101
This label lists a series of articles on how to Study the Bible. The long version of the name is "Bible Studies 101" I will remove older articles from this whenever I replace them with newer versions.


BIBLE STUDY
This label includes all items posted with the goal of teaching others how to study the Bible. I am beginning to split this out, using this heading for motivational stuff and older articles and a new one "Bible Study 101" for the actual study guide.

Articles removed from "Bible Study 101" will be found here.



BLOGGING
This label includes information and stuff about the process of blogging itself.


BOARDER SECURITY
This label includes all articles discussing the building of the Border Fence and other security measures, also includes information on the enemies of our boarder security efforts.


Border Security
Correction of Spelling for Above


BOOK REVIEWS
This label includes reviews of books I am reading,
Or have read over the past few years,
Or that I want to read, but haven't the time.



Car_and_Truck
This label includes stuff about cars and trucks

And many other forms of personal transportation,
Including those with two wheels.



CHRISTIAN LIVING
This label includes discussion on how Christians should live.
Authority for How Christians should live is the Bible.
But we need to look at 1 Corinthians 5
And balance it with Romans 15



De-Tagged
This label includes stuff that I have removed tags from. Some de-tagged articles could be stuff that I have written a more updated article on, or stuff that I no longer consider it worthy of anyone spending time on. I won't remove the article, or pretend I didn't write it, but will just change it to this label.




Disaster Prep
This label includes information on what we should be doing now to prepare for disasters



DRM
This label includes discussions about Digital Rights Management, Copyright Enforcement, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) and the Jackbooted thugs at RIAA and MPAA and some other producers.





ECONOMICS
This label includes all kinds of stuff on economics, whether world economics or national. Or micro economics which, for my definition, includes economics of a single business, household, or even a single process (like driving to work).






ENERGY
This label includes discussion of all forms of energy,
both mainstream and alternative.
Oil, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Home grown, imported -- etc
and the energy situations of other countries



EPIDEMIC
This label includes information on current, future, and past epidemics,
their expected impact,
and what we should be doing to deal with those epidemics.



FOLLY_CORPORATE
This label includes discussions on corporations,
their behavior, and how they undermine our prosperity,
our rights as citizens, and our sovereignty as a nation.



FOLLY_RELIGIOUS
This label includes various heretical teachings, from prosperity preachers
to politicians mis-using biblical teachings for political purposes, to others
using quasi or pseudo scriptural ideas to support pseudo christian beliefs.



FOllY_Political
This label includes things conservatives do that will hamstring them, or that show they are not really conservative, but rather, doing what is right for big corporations or the very rich. Also included are things that will reduce our ability to remain a free and prosperous country.




Retiree Issues

Planned - but there are no articles under this heading.



MISSING PAST
This label includes stuff, including technology, that have vanished over the last 20 or so years, due to manufactures going out of business, production costs for too few items, or excessive greed on the part of patent holders.



Obs_and_Defs
The long name for this is "Observations and Definitions"
Just a place to put short articles that are
not much more than a paragraph,
Any observation, definition, or quick link to a good article.



NOVEMBER
Short for "The November Chronicles"

This label includes evidence of the "coming storm" and the decline and fall of the American Nation. Primarily, five things are leading to this "coming storm" Overpopulation, Overspending, Apathy, Islam, and Environmentalism.



PERSONAL NOTES
This label includes notes on my personal life and things happening around me personally.



POLITICS
This label includes articles about state and national politics, and the goings on of international or foreign government bodies and agencies.




SLIMEBALLS
This label includes stuff I found where people have behaved in despicable ways. I thought about migrating this to the heading of Weasel, hat tip to the author of Dilbert for the term.

But instead, I have decided to depreciate it.
In Geekspeak, this means that
while I won't immediately delete it,
I won't be using it any more.



TECHNOLOGY
This label includes,
As the banner on my blog reads:
Discussions of Technology, and How We Use or Misuse it.

A Hollow Recovery amid Job Losses

This is coming out a bit late (OK, very late), and will mark a change in my efforts to regularly forecast the economic climate. Future articles will be shorter and address only one or another item.

Optimistic chatter from Washington and Wall Street is counter balanced by the reality that job losses, and especially manufacturing job losses, are killing the American Dream. This seems to be a continuation of the last few months. There is a (well thought out) theory afloat that the recovery will be in phases, but not really recovery - Change.

There is more about job losses here. And here: look specifically at "US manufacturing statistics" and then realise that this was written in 2005 - before the collapse.

Some time ago (July), when some of the brain-dead-heads in Washington (and some in NYC) were talking about the recession being over, the smarter people on Wall Street were saying it is too early. It still is.

Among the economic indicators I watch Baltic shipping index (third graph) is beginning to show the "W" shape that I mentioned in last month's update.

Two things that few people are talking about are dragging the economy, and preventing any real recovery. One is the addiction to foreign oil. While we are still importing 70% of our oil, and still not investing much in the way of new supplies or even new refineries, China is buying up future oil production, which will again push oil prices sky high. (About $20 - $40 a year increases) As Pickens says: "China has a plan," Pickens said. "We don’t."

The other drag on the economy is the previously mentioned manufacturing job losses. While the brain-dead-heads in Washington keep measuring the service sector, as if consumption will make us rich, we keep exporting our manufacturing jobs overseas. The pundits on Wall Street keep talking about a "jobless recovery," which means if the economy recovers at all, it will again be a hollow economy. I specifically remember, some years ago, one Caterpillar May (stock owner) telling me how good it is for the US to have free trade with China, since that would lead to them buying equipment from US. Now, after we pumped billions into the Chinese economy (some of which they loaned us this past year to stabilise our financial sector) they have built their own manufacturing facilities and are building machines they used to buy from US.

More about the jobless recovery here. And a quick quote from it:

(Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Job openings in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in at least nine years, signaling the economy hasn’t improved enough to prompt companies to take on more staff.)

Although I can't find the reference right now, the real jobless rate, including people who have given up on finding a job, and those who don't qualify for unemployment is close to 17%.


Also, late breaking: China is going to be building Hummers
(Just a note that this does not affect the production of the US Army HMMWV)



There is a comical picture of our economic dilemma showing that we are counting on the unemployed to bail us out.



So, if things are so bad, why are the market numbers looking pretty good? Well, two things are in play, inflating the numbers. One is the constant pumping of extra money into the economy, mainly by way of low interest rates. The "Fed" has indicated that the current interest rate, which is indistinguishable from zero, and has been for almost a year. (Also found here)



But all this extra grease on the wheels of the economy has had a downside. The dollar has been declining for some months now, pushing up prices of commodities (like oil and gold) balancing the deflation in the economy. Of course, with material costs rising and finished goods remaining the same, the workers are obviously absorbing the loss. (also here)


As an ironic twist, some employers are pretending to have a hard time finding qualified workers. I say pretending, because they obviously are complaining that qualified applicants are taking the better paying jobs (or better work environment), and the complainers are the ones that can't get the workers.


Gold, trend lines are still rocketing upwards, and gold will be over priced for some time, unless one takes the demise of the dollar very seriously. But I don't think it will collapse entirely, since Obama's handlers in the far east (remember, the debtor is servant to the lender) want to keep it afloat.




So, What Now?

Because, as I mentioned above, the "Fed" is planning to keep interest rates low for at least another year, I will no longer be doing this article monthly, as I have been. Even thought the "markets" will seem to recover (good if you have mutual funds) the real economy will not recover for many many more months, if it recovers at all.



What to do in the mean time?


Keep working - if you have a job. Don't be afraid to take on any work that comes your way if you don't. Times will be hard for many years, and the line of work you want may never come your way again. Learn new skills. Everybody should have at least two (unrelated) job skills.


If you have money (if you can afford cable TV), buy tools for survival, in case the worst happens. And make sure you know how to use them. If you are no good with tools, you might have to barter - and find someone who has the skill.



Do not let your love grow cold. Now, to be clear, when the Bible talks about love, it is an action verb. To be specific, Love equals charity, in fact, if you look at an Old English dictionary, you will see they are synonyms. Love is a call to action.



And one last thought: hunker down. It is going to be a long and bumpy ride.

My New (used) Truck

I actually began this subject with my rant against the Consumer Reports 2007 used car buyer's guide. The reviewer of all of the smaller trucks had a bad attitude, as was evidenced by their consistent belittling of small trucks.

I recently bought a Chevy Colorado. The Consumer Reports (this link subject to change) reviewer said the four cylinder engine in the Colorado was "crude and noisy." I do not find that to be true, but I will say the transmission tends to shift into overdrive and engage the lock at too low speed. It also seems to like first gear too much. At 1500 RPM in first, it is traveling about 12 mph, and does not want to shift into second. At 46 mph, it shifts into overdrive (and the lock engages at any speed over 35), which again puts you at 1500 rpm - but with about 6 times the torque output. There is a slight, but noticeable engine vibration. I doubt this is what the reviewer was referring to (really can't figure out what he is complaining about), but a switch to prevent it from going into overdrive, or just adjusting it to shift to overdrive only at higher speed would fix this.

The Consumer Reports reviewer seemed to think that anything with less than rocket like acceleration was underpowered, but this truck has plenty of power for daily use. And that is what it is meant for. There are heavier and more powerful trucks on the market, for jobs that need heavier and more powerful trucks (my job, as an equipment maintenance person requires something heavy duty, but I drive a corporate truck for that). What I need is something that is economical. This truck gets fairly good mileage, but not as good as my 95 Isuzu. And not as good as an economy car. And the tires will be a bit more expensive to maintain. But overall, it isn't too bad.

Anyway, at this point, my biggest complaint (other than it is going to cost more to drive) is that I can't get the dome light to come on without the key in the ignition.

End of Quarter Roundup

I started doing quarterly roundups, instead of monthly, because I don't do enough blog entries on my blog to justify a monthly roundup. This quarter I started out strong, with a series of book reviews on Christianity in Crisis and followed with some stuff on economics and politics. In fact, for some months now, I have been doing a monthly economic article. Good Start.


But ultimately, between paying too much attention to national politics and some health problems (nothing I haven't had before), I have been neglecting what I should be doing with this blog. So, in the next three months, I hope to do more with Bible Studies and book reviews. And be seen less on other peoples blogs, talking about politics. If you look at my November Chronicles articles, you might see why.


Now, as in the past reviews, here are links to some articles that generated comments, followed by some stuff I got involved in on a couple other blogs, and lastly, a list of article numbers on Combat Effective that are of interest.


Sotomayor Unqualified
Bottoming out in the Recession

Other people's Blogs
Judges tend to evolve - badly.
Young people leaving their Churches
Pilgrim's Political Link
Biker Bubba's Thoughts On Palin Leaving the Governorship
Calvinism's author turns 500
Chiggers and other insects
Business Climate in Michigan is Icy
Unemployment in Michigan is growth business

List of article numbers of interest on Combat Effective.
I am too lazy to do full links to them, but
if you are really interested, I will coach on
how to get to the referenced pages.


3298 Blue Ray DVD players
3301 We now have two liberal parties
(republicans sent me a survey - w/ donation request)
3303 Can Blogs be killed by outlawing linking?
3304 Honduras, Clinton, Castro, and then Sotomayor
3305 on twitter and blogs (DW anti communist blog)
3306 the US has voted to be enslaved and impoverished
3309 bankrupting farmers, and corporate psychopaths
3310 Jury sees Rep. Jefferson taking a bribe
3312 Obama's pick for surgeon general
3313 Taxes and healthcare (and my little rant about it)
morphed into international finance
3314 Moon landing anniversary
3315 the coming war of gog and magog
3316 various topics
3317 On the demise of News Papers
and rise of "free" media detailed discussions
3318 various topics
3293 Late breaking updates to:
Note to GOP - don't compare Obama to Putin
As a nation, we are hanging in the balance
Two bills, should they pass, will bankrupt us
3321 Fannie Mae Needs more money
3322 Long detailed discussion of Cash for Clunkers
including some comparison to Unabomber predictions
3323 Combat Rob and Wife Expecting a little one
3324 Consumer bankruptcies and Credit card defaults
3325 don't let news of economic recovery lure you into spending
3330 Are we bitter, or offended, at the corruption of the system
this was moved to forums
3331 will we, or our grandchildren, pick up the tab for this mess
3333 A Josef Goebbel's recovery
3340 Ghost Fleet of the Recession - ships parked near Singapore
3348 (administrative action) User Databases scrubbed
3349 Liberals want civility
3351 Criminally Insane escapes while on field trip

Iranian Nuclear Developement

This is interesting.

Voice of America uncovered it two years ago.
http://morningcoffee.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/iran-denies-existance-of-nuke-facility/

And now we have the proof.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0926/p02s05-usfp.html

Nice.

Swine Flu is Back

With the start of the school year, the flu epidemic has renewed itself. Or epidemics. It seems there is more than one strain going around this year. And the government will have the vaccines out after the majority of the threat is passed.

At least the schools seem to be less panicky. Now they are sending individual students home instead of closing schools. There has to be a point, though, at which the school gets closed. Some studies I have read indicate that when 1% of the students have been infected, it is time to close the schools. I haven't seen any plans like that, this time.

The bottom line is: we must depend on ourselves.
What I have said about this in the past still stands.
April 29 swine-flu
May 1 swine-flu-2
May 4 swine-flu-3-panic-and-stupidity
May 15 swine-flu-from-panic-to-forgotten

the economy does a W?

While there are some who think the recession may be about over and Obama my be able to take credit, I disagree.

Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets together with the Obama administration’s "cash-for- clunkers" program and tax credits for first-time homebuyers are reviving demand. Factories and builders, which have accounted for half of all the jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, may keep growing in coming months as sales rise.

In fact, even while that was being written, a correction was getting underway. Within hours, the S&P was back under 1000. the price of crude and gasoline dropped, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds was back under 1%.

Nothing, of course, is cut and dryad.
"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." (John Maynard Keys).

Much of the problems of the economy is hidden beneath the surface. There is a backlog of real estate in the foreclosure process that rivals the size of all the houses currently on the market today. Consumers are racking up massive credit card debt, and job losses are still mounting up, meaning that a mountain of credit card defaults are just around the corner. (numbers you may have heard - accompanied by rosy narrative that things are getting better, are a farce - the situation is just getting worse more slowly.)

In addition, the banks have been hiding weaknesses (this is in addition to the weakness caused by NOT foreclosing on delinquent accounts) through a technique called Mark to Market accounting. This is where they can estimate their holdings to be worth more than what they really are worth.

One person I should have been reading some years ago, Bill Fleckenstein predicted much of this, years before it happened. He says this is just a continuation of the bubble collapse of 2001.

What me may be facing in the next few months is a second "bottoming" of the economy, with more job losses. More market contraction. More losses in equity of most commodities. Instead of a V shaped economic chart, it will look more like a W. The Great Depression was not all one long depressed economy, but rather 3 or 4 (depending on how you look at it) serious recessions. That was GD1, and this is shaping up to be GD2, and we will likely see a round of high inflation somewhere in the mix. Or something that just looks like inflation.

Nazi Liberals show their true colors

Much like when those peace loving Muslims showed their tolerance when their "prophet" was caracatured in a Danish publication, and there was peaceful discourse between gays and Christians over proposition 8, the libral community is once again showing their true colors by calling for the ouster of the CEO of Whole Foods.

And why? Has he caused his company to lose money?
No.
Has he abused his employees?
No.
Are the customers unhappy with the produce?
No.
Has he been charged with any underhanded dealings?
No.

He expressed an opinion, backed by the success of his own company's healthcare plan, that ObamaCare is not the option he favors. He outlined several things that would truely improve healtcare, while not bankrupting the entire nation.

And for that, people are picketing, and the unions (which I do not believe they represent his employees) are calling for his resignation. All because he dared to speak his mind.

being taught to be un-American

Business (and Government) team up, from time to time to teach people to trust in Big Brother and to not have do anything for ourselves.

Clark Howard has an article this month about employees who have been fired for interfering with robbers or shoplifters. Of course, the store is worried about being sued. Of course this is because the legal system is no longer interested in truth, justice or liberty. It has become only interested in refining the combative skills of the players (the attornies).

And judges are instrumental in making this so. In some cases, legal action has been brought by the government for pointing out that a particular action is unconstitutional.

bottoming out in the recession

This is a continuation of my monthly economic outlook summary. Previous economic discussion can be found by looking down the right hand side of your screen until you see "economics" and clicking on that link.

The interest rate the "fed" charges banks for overnight borrowing is so close to zero, that it is almost impossible to measure.

One of the few things Obama has done right in this stimulus stuff (and I will give credit where credit is due) is the "cash for clunkers." While it was in the Senate, both parties backed it. It has done pretty well in the first few days, and of course, now the Republicans want to kill it. Politics.

We seem to have hit bottom on this economic collapse. Maybe.

Leading indicators, such as the Baltic Shipping (global) Rail Shipping (US) and Short term interest rates all give a pretty good picture of reaching the bottom.


The road back up will be long, slow, arduous, and fraught with danger of setbacks (just as this collapse was a setback on the road to recovery from the dot-com bust. Also, I heard this morning that Japan is having trouble recovering because their industry has been hollowed out by outsourcing. (On the flip side, China Manufacturing index is way up - you do the math).

However, both oil and gas are up, not to mention the rise in the minimum wage. These will be a headwind for the economy to overcome. The stock market, the housing market (except in a few places) and the price of gold are all up slightly - but these could all go up and down two or three times in the next few months. Remember "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keys). If you want to win at the stock market, I am not your teacher.

One note on the markets that may make gold look a little more useful as a hedge against inflation, Two to five years from now, we should be looking at a pretty massive inflation rate. If the inflation rate is as high as I think it will be, it will make the current bond interest rate negative (less than inflation). This could make gold look pretty good, but you still have to get around the exchange, storage and security costs - therefore I still cannot recommend it.

A final note:
I just heard Robert Crandall (Jul 3rd, on the Kudlow report) say that "consumers are 70% of the US economy."

Folks, this is just plain wrong. We would be better off if we didn't even look at the consumption side of the economy at all. All it is is funny money.

UPDATE: Well, the one bright spot in the stimulus programs has been tarnished. Seems the government can't get even the simple things right. Worse than "offsetting some of the benefits," these delays will cause the burden to fall on small independant dealerships - a critical part of the backbone of our econmy. I have written more on Combat Effective.