The left likes to call it Cap and Trade. Someone on the right calls it Kneecap our Trade.
I think Cap and Tax, the most common name for it, is also the best.
Here is a good article on it.
It's real name is Waxman Markey
Its name should be the bill to kill America.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
Sotomayor Unqualified
We already know she is a racist. And in the struggle to try to prove she is not, her handlers also showed that she subscribes to the Postmodern Belief that there is no correct or incorrect solution, it is all about empathy and experience, and other squishy stuff.
To quote the Real Clear Politics article linked to above:
We also know now, that she is contemptuous of the Constitution. Of course, All the leftists rush to say she is being taken out of context, cause the right wingers leave out the second sentence. But THEY leave out the third sentence.
Here is the whole context:
As you can see from the last sentence, even though she is trying hard to massage her words, she really believes she can legislate from the Bench.
And now that the first day of confirmation hearings are concluded, we know she is a Professional Liar. She completely reversed what she said in her interview at Duke University about judges making policy. I won't say pathological liar, as that would indicate that she doesn't know when she is lying. She KNOWS. And she is unrepentant.
What really scares me is what will her handlers make her say or write while she is on the Supreme Court. The thing I don't understand is, why are there confirmation hearings to decide whether or not to seat her on the Supreme Court, when there should be impeachment hearings to remove her from the bench after the gross misconduct she demonstrated on the firefighters' case.
To quote the Real Clear Politics article linked to above:
The clever people in the media and elsewhere are saying that "inevitably" one's background influences how one feels about issues. Even if that were true, judges are not supposed to decide cases based on their personal feelings.
Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said that he "loathed" many of the people in whose favor he voted on the Supreme Court. Obviously, he had feelings. But he also had the good sense and integrity to rule on the basis of the law, not his feelings.
Laws are made for the benefit of the citizens, not for the self-indulgences of judges. Making excuses for such self-indulgences and calling them "inevitable" is part of the cleverness that has eroded the rule of law and undermined respect for the law.
We also know now, that she is contemptuous of the Constitution. Of course, All the leftists rush to say she is being taken out of context, cause the right wingers leave out the second sentence. But THEY leave out the third sentence.
Here is the whole context:
In a forum at the Duke University School of Law in 2005, Sonia Sotomayor said, "Court of appeals is where policy is made. And I know – and I know this is on tape and I should never say that because we don't make law, I know. OK, I know. I'm not promoting it, and I'm not advocating it, I'm – you know. OK. Having said that, the court of appeals is where, before the Supreme Court makes the final decision, the law is percolating – its interpretation, its application."
As you can see from the last sentence, even though she is trying hard to massage her words, she really believes she can legislate from the Bench.
And now that the first day of confirmation hearings are concluded, we know she is a Professional Liar. She completely reversed what she said in her interview at Duke University about judges making policy. I won't say pathological liar, as that would indicate that she doesn't know when she is lying. She KNOWS. And she is unrepentant.
What really scares me is what will her handlers make her say or write while she is on the Supreme Court. The thing I don't understand is, why are there confirmation hearings to decide whether or not to seat her on the Supreme Court, when there should be impeachment hearings to remove her from the bench after the gross misconduct she demonstrated on the firefighters' case.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Finances for the Long Haul
I once said this downturn in the economy may be known as the second Great Depression, or by the symbol GD2. So for the time being I will be writing a monthly column to summarise the world economics picture as I see it.
Well, on this third monthly installment, I have to first mention that I was initially wrong about the price of gas. Rather than going up another 10 cents, it dropped several cents, and looks now like it will drop another several cents. This is doubly good, both because it will grease the way for our profits and it means that China is not as big of a threat this year as I thought. Our profit is, as always, China's loss.
But, to be fair, everything went down this past month. The dreaded "double dip recession?" Who knows. But I once said it would keep getting worse until this fall, and it now looks, again, like that may be right.
There will be more on the subject of gas prices posted under "Energy" in the last couple of days in July. This will be the month to watch oil prices, as the going price on a barrel of crude, over the course of the month of July is one of the best indicators for the price of gas next spring. Of course, there is always the fly in the ointment - amateur speculators. These are the people who drove the price to $147 dollars a barrel last year.
I would have thought most of the amateur traders and speculators would learn from getting burnt in the dot com bubble burst of 2001, and getting burnt again in the housing bubble burst of 2007, but I just heard (on CNBC Fast Money) they are still playing a significant role in trading oil futures.
There was a joke on the Net's a few years ago about where is a fool and their money when I need them. Maybe we have found where they are: day traders and the government. Both have been throwing money into the markets like drunken sailors.
The last couple of weeks, bottom dropped out of the 2-year bond market, indicating that recovery and the move into very high inflation rates now looks more than two years away, but I don't want to forecast it that far out. It is highly likely the markets will rally suddenly and catch those of us who are wary by surprise.
I am still not advocating buying gold at this time (unless the price falls below $900), but I am not advocating against it either. See the numbers here.
There is a real worry some years out that the economy will undergo a round of high inflation coupled with phony numbers from the government. This happened about 5 or so years back. As one economist put it: "there isn't any inflation, but everything costs twice as much."
My basic advice still hasn't changed any. The five rules still apply.
So buckle your seat belts, and hang on. The ride is likely to be bumpy.
Well, on this third monthly installment, I have to first mention that I was initially wrong about the price of gas. Rather than going up another 10 cents, it dropped several cents, and looks now like it will drop another several cents. This is doubly good, both because it will grease the way for our profits and it means that China is not as big of a threat this year as I thought. Our profit is, as always, China's loss.
But, to be fair, everything went down this past month. The dreaded "double dip recession?" Who knows. But I once said it would keep getting worse until this fall, and it now looks, again, like that may be right.
There will be more on the subject of gas prices posted under "Energy" in the last couple of days in July. This will be the month to watch oil prices, as the going price on a barrel of crude, over the course of the month of July is one of the best indicators for the price of gas next spring. Of course, there is always the fly in the ointment - amateur speculators. These are the people who drove the price to $147 dollars a barrel last year.
I would have thought most of the amateur traders and speculators would learn from getting burnt in the dot com bubble burst of 2001, and getting burnt again in the housing bubble burst of 2007, but I just heard (on CNBC Fast Money) they are still playing a significant role in trading oil futures.
There was a joke on the Net's a few years ago about where is a fool and their money when I need them. Maybe we have found where they are: day traders and the government. Both have been throwing money into the markets like drunken sailors.
The last couple of weeks, bottom dropped out of the 2-year bond market, indicating that recovery and the move into very high inflation rates now looks more than two years away, but I don't want to forecast it that far out. It is highly likely the markets will rally suddenly and catch those of us who are wary by surprise.
I am still not advocating buying gold at this time (unless the price falls below $900), but I am not advocating against it either. See the numbers here.
There is a real worry some years out that the economy will undergo a round of high inflation coupled with phony numbers from the government. This happened about 5 or so years back. As one economist put it: "there isn't any inflation, but everything costs twice as much."
My basic advice still hasn't changed any. The five rules still apply.
So buckle your seat belts, and hang on. The ride is likely to be bumpy.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Book Review 1 - Chrstianity in Crisis
This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog: CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have seen.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical?
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to television preachers, as I was too lazy to spend the time examining their doctrine. Bringing these so called christian leaders to our attention, the author exposes the cult like teachings of Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn, Oral Roberts, Creflo Dollar, John Hagee, and many others. He also takes to task others like Joyce Meyer and Joel Osteen, who I would consider (and I could be wrong) more of the "christianity lite" variety. All are, in one form or another, "prosperity preachers," espousing the view that we can tell God what to do.
I don't take the author's word for everything. "No teacher has a free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned" includes him. While I have not finished the book, some of what I read indicates he may have trouble interpreting Romans Chapter 8 among others.
The early chapters were hard for me to read, because I kept referring back to the "end notes" to see where he got such outrageous material. He supports each and every accusation of their heresy with citations on when and where the heretics made those statements. As the book progresses, it seems to get repetitive, but that is partially because each of the "cast of characters," as he calls them, espouses very similar viewpoints. He does, also, examine some of them from more than one angle. One irritant for me is that most of the more outrageous statements these prosperity preachers have made were in the 80's and 90's, giving them the opportunity to say that he is judging them unfairly because they have learned better since. I haven't heard any of them say that, but I do know that Jim Bakker later repented (although I don't know what he has been doing since).
Towards the middle of the book, which is where I am currently studying, he begins to compare their theology with the classical theology of the traditional Church. He supports his theological arguments well, and shows how, many times, even a shallow study of the context of the prosperity doctrine's biblical references reveals the absolute lunacy of their interpretation.
Well the book is about 400 pages, and I am only halfway through, so I should write more in the future.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical?
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to television preachers, as I was too lazy to spend the time examining their doctrine. Bringing these so called christian leaders to our attention, the author exposes the cult like teachings of Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn, Oral Roberts, Creflo Dollar, John Hagee, and many others. He also takes to task others like Joyce Meyer and Joel Osteen, who I would consider (and I could be wrong) more of the "christianity lite" variety. All are, in one form or another, "prosperity preachers," espousing the view that we can tell God what to do.
I don't take the author's word for everything. "No teacher has a free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned" includes him. While I have not finished the book, some of what I read indicates he may have trouble interpreting Romans Chapter 8 among others.
The early chapters were hard for me to read, because I kept referring back to the "end notes" to see where he got such outrageous material. He supports each and every accusation of their heresy with citations on when and where the heretics made those statements. As the book progresses, it seems to get repetitive, but that is partially because each of the "cast of characters," as he calls them, espouses very similar viewpoints. He does, also, examine some of them from more than one angle. One irritant for me is that most of the more outrageous statements these prosperity preachers have made were in the 80's and 90's, giving them the opportunity to say that he is judging them unfairly because they have learned better since. I haven't heard any of them say that, but I do know that Jim Bakker later repented (although I don't know what he has been doing since).
Towards the middle of the book, which is where I am currently studying, he begins to compare their theology with the classical theology of the traditional Church. He supports his theological arguments well, and shows how, many times, even a shallow study of the context of the prosperity doctrine's biblical references reveals the absolute lunacy of their interpretation.
Well the book is about 400 pages, and I am only halfway through, so I should write more in the future.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Crisis in the Church
This is a combination of an initial book report, and a call to action.
There is a crisis in Christian Churches in America. Actually, it has been going on for decades, and is epidemic in many countries. Many people think this crisis is some unconfessed sin of pastors or may blame the bingo parlor, night club, strip joint, or tavern down the street. Some may think it is the stinginess of the congregants not putting their full tithe in the offering plate. All of these things may be a slight problem for your neighborhood Church, but there is a bigger crisis.
The problem comes into your home on television. No, it isn't MTV or VH1. It isn't PBS or National Geographic. It isn't the late night soft porn on many cable channels. It isn't the ever increasing sex, drugs and profanity on prime time, or the references both hidden and overt to the occult on those same shows, or on saturday morning cartoons. All of these things are bad enough, but they are the things of the world, and do not present a crisis inside the Church.
The crisis is brought into your home through the so called christian networks, and the many so called christian programs that air on sunday morning, purporting to bring the Church into your home, but are really wolves in sheep's clothing, teaching a form of new age metaphysical deism, wrapped in christian jargon, plucked at will from the Bible.
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to these television preachers, because I have learned over the years to inspect what men tell me is true, and in the area of religion, I must inspect all they tell me against the standard of the Bible. This is a lot of work, and I am somewhat lazy, so I never paid attention to them because I didn't want to have to go to all of the work to verify what they were teaching.
These so called christian leaders were brought to my attention through a book I have begun reading - a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog:
CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, including an earlier edition of this book.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical? Catchy sayings and country music lyrics and the teachings of pseudo christian religions are more likely to be taken as Gospel than the Gospel itself. This is a complete disaster for the Christian Church, and needs to be dealt with in every truly Christian Church.
There is a crisis in Christian Churches in America. Actually, it has been going on for decades, and is epidemic in many countries. Many people think this crisis is some unconfessed sin of pastors or may blame the bingo parlor, night club, strip joint, or tavern down the street. Some may think it is the stinginess of the congregants not putting their full tithe in the offering plate. All of these things may be a slight problem for your neighborhood Church, but there is a bigger crisis.
The problem comes into your home on television. No, it isn't MTV or VH1. It isn't PBS or National Geographic. It isn't the late night soft porn on many cable channels. It isn't the ever increasing sex, drugs and profanity on prime time, or the references both hidden and overt to the occult on those same shows, or on saturday morning cartoons. All of these things are bad enough, but they are the things of the world, and do not present a crisis inside the Church.
The crisis is brought into your home through the so called christian networks, and the many so called christian programs that air on sunday morning, purporting to bring the Church into your home, but are really wolves in sheep's clothing, teaching a form of new age metaphysical deism, wrapped in christian jargon, plucked at will from the Bible.
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to these television preachers, because I have learned over the years to inspect what men tell me is true, and in the area of religion, I must inspect all they tell me against the standard of the Bible. This is a lot of work, and I am somewhat lazy, so I never paid attention to them because I didn't want to have to go to all of the work to verify what they were teaching.
These so called christian leaders were brought to my attention through a book I have begun reading - a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog:
CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, including an earlier edition of this book.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical? Catchy sayings and country music lyrics and the teachings of pseudo christian religions are more likely to be taken as Gospel than the Gospel itself. This is a complete disaster for the Christian Church, and needs to be dealt with in every truly Christian Church.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
End of Quarter Roundup
The big stories (but not the only stories) here this past quarter have been the Swine Flu outbreak and the economy.
For some personal notes, we have been having some record breaking heat here in the middle of Texas, and this may go down as one of the hottest summers on record. South and west of me, the ranchers are in dire straights and the cities have begun to restrict water use because of drought conditions, but it really hasn't affected me personally, yet. I have been reading a book on the heresies of the "prosperity preachers" and will be doing an initial review of the book shortly. (I still plan to do one more article on the "Year of Biblical Living")
GEEK ALERT: Despite being written for a general audience the next two paragraphs are quite technical in nature. If you are a non-geek, simply ignore the terms you don't understand, and you will still get three quarters of it.
My search for new software goes on, but I have decided to use an Open Office spreadsheet for my check book register. If you are looking for good FREE office software, Open Office is my recommendation. Not yet perfect, but getting there. And so many offices now use Excel or some other spreadsheet for a general purpose tool that I recommend almost everyone learn to use it. (More on that later.)
For a Personal Information Manager, I have settled on EPIM, which has version 3.02 out. Support for Win2K is not expected to go on much longer, but the authors patched it for Win2K compatibility for this version. Now to find some good journal keeping software.
Now for some notes on my writings for the past three months: I have managed not to publish and then update any posts, but one of my political posts generated some worthwhile remarks.
I do a lot of my writing by commenting on other peoples blog entries, here are some of the more significant comments.
Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation
The linked to story here is worth reading
Economy to Shrink for "Some Time"
or "Obama's pep talker gives dismal review"
While I did not comment on this one,
it is a real good read about how some
big banks are gaming the mortgage mess.
I think I actually do more writing as comments
on Combat Effective than anywhere else.
Automakers, Bailouts, and Greed
Cowards and Sheepdogs
Dead Pirates
Daily Bad News - Should we freak out?
Mortgages Cramdowns and Contracts
Recovery, or Bear Market Rally
The Conflict between good and Evil,
the Bible and the Scammers
Conservatives don't Make Themselves Heard
Inflation, and Where does Money Come From
The People of the CombatEffective Crowd
Long winded Discussion of Political Wind shifts
The ongoing Economic Crisis
Just some political BS here
Just some economic BS here
Blue-Ray - the expensive
new toy - will people eventually buy it?
Opening up a discussion on the Happenings in Iran
A contrast on possible TARP bailouts
And there you have it. If there is any doubt, not only does this let people who use blog following and blog reading software keep up with stuff that doesn't show up on those tools, but it also ups my "update count" by one, with a lot of links. Kinda cheating, but kinda useful.
For some personal notes, we have been having some record breaking heat here in the middle of Texas, and this may go down as one of the hottest summers on record. South and west of me, the ranchers are in dire straights and the cities have begun to restrict water use because of drought conditions, but it really hasn't affected me personally, yet. I have been reading a book on the heresies of the "prosperity preachers" and will be doing an initial review of the book shortly. (I still plan to do one more article on the "Year of Biblical Living")
GEEK ALERT: Despite being written for a general audience the next two paragraphs are quite technical in nature. If you are a non-geek, simply ignore the terms you don't understand, and you will still get three quarters of it.
My search for new software goes on, but I have decided to use an Open Office spreadsheet for my check book register. If you are looking for good FREE office software, Open Office is my recommendation. Not yet perfect, but getting there. And so many offices now use Excel or some other spreadsheet for a general purpose tool that I recommend almost everyone learn to use it. (More on that later.)
For a Personal Information Manager, I have settled on EPIM, which has version 3.02 out. Support for Win2K is not expected to go on much longer, but the authors patched it for Win2K compatibility for this version. Now to find some good journal keeping software.
Now for some notes on my writings for the past three months: I have managed not to publish and then update any posts, but one of my political posts generated some worthwhile remarks.
I do a lot of my writing by commenting on other peoples blog entries, here are some of the more significant comments.
Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation
The linked to story here is worth reading
Economy to Shrink for "Some Time"
or "Obama's pep talker gives dismal review"
While I did not comment on this one,
it is a real good read about how some
big banks are gaming the mortgage mess.
I think I actually do more writing as comments
on Combat Effective than anywhere else.
Automakers, Bailouts, and Greed
Cowards and Sheepdogs
Dead Pirates
Daily Bad News - Should we freak out?
Mortgages Cramdowns and Contracts
Recovery, or Bear Market Rally
The Conflict between good and Evil,
the Bible and the Scammers
Conservatives don't Make Themselves Heard
Inflation, and Where does Money Come From
The People of the CombatEffective Crowd
Long winded Discussion of Political Wind shifts
The ongoing Economic Crisis
Just some political BS here
Just some economic BS here
Blue-Ray - the expensive
new toy - will people eventually buy it?
Opening up a discussion on the Happenings in Iran
A contrast on possible TARP bailouts
And there you have it. If there is any doubt, not only does this let people who use blog following and blog reading software keep up with stuff that doesn't show up on those tools, but it also ups my "update count" by one, with a lot of links. Kinda cheating, but kinda useful.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
opposing traffic in the economy
Last month I said I might make a monthly entry here on the subject of the economy, and even thought it has been less than a month, I have been chomping at the bit to make this next entry.
This economy is presenting many serious paradoxes that will act like pitfalls over the next several years (actually, forever - but in a few years, some people will catch on, and compensate).
First, there is a slight up tic in some of the market indexes. Don't be fooled. As I stated on Combat Effective (ninth comment), corporations are not us. They can experience some gains without any benefit to the public at large.
Second, I have been asked why the price of gas has been going up. It is going up because demand is continuing to be high. Normally this runs up the price in May and then through June and July, the price drops a few cents. It isn't dropping this summer. In fact it raised about a dime since the end of May, and looks like it will raise another dime. But US gas consumption is mostly flat, so what is this rise all about? China.
The Chinese economy (repeatedly called "cash rich" in the media), is surging ahead with some early growth, and (as you can see from another article) they are moving to secure vital resources to insure future growth.
While we may be at the bottom (even the G8 is talking about this) , real recovery is looking even further away. Currently, there are a lot of forecasters expecting gold and the Euro to remain near flat, the pound to take a slide and the US economy to turn around. (Indeed, the dollar and pound may have already both taken a slide this past week, but it is too early to tell.) Of course, they are partially correct, and partly because in the short run, economic forecasting is somewhat a self fulfilling prophesy. But this is one prophesy that may backfire for the public at large.
Much of what looks like gain for the US economy falls into two broad categories. Increases in spending, much like an unemployed person going on a spending spree because he got a job interview. He doesn't have a job, but he feels better so he goes out and spends more money that he does not have. Second, there may be a lot of repositioning of corporations to take advantage of improving conditions in China and some other third world economies. Neither of these are good for the US public at large.
As a couple of final notes, I previously stated that unemployment wouldn't likely turn around for a year, and housing for at least two years. Well, on further thought, I would double that. Expect the job market to be dismal for at least two years, and housing prices to be down for at least four. Nothing has really changed, except my view of the timeline.
How do I get my view of the timeline. Not real scientific (I don't spend enough time on it to get any more science into it), but I look mostly at the interest rates on 6mo, 1yr, 2yr, 5yr and 10yr bonds. In (not very) recent history, they have been around .45, .9, 1.9, 2.9, 3.9 percents. respectively. I watch for trends in deviations from those numbers. In more recent times, the interest rates on the first three have been going down, and the interest rates on the last two have been steady. Therefore, I expect meaningful gains somewhere between 2 and 5 years.
As for gold, still overpriced. But, maybe a good idea anyway. If you can buy some, and hold it for at least 4 years. Of course, this entails a great deal of security, both of your financial position, and physical security. I am discussing physical gold coins, and therefore you have to have a place to store them. I would still recommend other durable things. By durable, I mean lasting more than ten years, so that rules out almost anything electronic. My choice is hand tools, but there may be other things too. A good bicycle should last more than ten years, except for the tires. You get the idea.
Well that is it, until next month.
This economy is presenting many serious paradoxes that will act like pitfalls over the next several years (actually, forever - but in a few years, some people will catch on, and compensate).
First, there is a slight up tic in some of the market indexes. Don't be fooled. As I stated on Combat Effective (ninth comment), corporations are not us. They can experience some gains without any benefit to the public at large.
Second, I have been asked why the price of gas has been going up. It is going up because demand is continuing to be high. Normally this runs up the price in May and then through June and July, the price drops a few cents. It isn't dropping this summer. In fact it raised about a dime since the end of May, and looks like it will raise another dime. But US gas consumption is mostly flat, so what is this rise all about? China.
The Chinese economy (repeatedly called "cash rich" in the media), is surging ahead with some early growth, and (as you can see from another article) they are moving to secure vital resources to insure future growth.
While we may be at the bottom (even the G8 is talking about this) , real recovery is looking even further away. Currently, there are a lot of forecasters expecting gold and the Euro to remain near flat, the pound to take a slide and the US economy to turn around. (Indeed, the dollar and pound may have already both taken a slide this past week, but it is too early to tell.) Of course, they are partially correct, and partly because in the short run, economic forecasting is somewhat a self fulfilling prophesy. But this is one prophesy that may backfire for the public at large.
Much of what looks like gain for the US economy falls into two broad categories. Increases in spending, much like an unemployed person going on a spending spree because he got a job interview. He doesn't have a job, but he feels better so he goes out and spends more money that he does not have. Second, there may be a lot of repositioning of corporations to take advantage of improving conditions in China and some other third world economies. Neither of these are good for the US public at large.
As a couple of final notes, I previously stated that unemployment wouldn't likely turn around for a year, and housing for at least two years. Well, on further thought, I would double that. Expect the job market to be dismal for at least two years, and housing prices to be down for at least four. Nothing has really changed, except my view of the timeline.
How do I get my view of the timeline. Not real scientific (I don't spend enough time on it to get any more science into it), but I look mostly at the interest rates on 6mo, 1yr, 2yr, 5yr and 10yr bonds. In (not very) recent history, they have been around .45, .9, 1.9, 2.9, 3.9 percents. respectively. I watch for trends in deviations from those numbers. In more recent times, the interest rates on the first three have been going down, and the interest rates on the last two have been steady. Therefore, I expect meaningful gains somewhere between 2 and 5 years.
As for gold, still overpriced. But, maybe a good idea anyway. If you can buy some, and hold it for at least 4 years. Of course, this entails a great deal of security, both of your financial position, and physical security. I am discussing physical gold coins, and therefore you have to have a place to store them. I would still recommend other durable things. By durable, I mean lasting more than ten years, so that rules out almost anything electronic. My choice is hand tools, but there may be other things too. A good bicycle should last more than ten years, except for the tires. You get the idea.
Well that is it, until next month.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
The Bible and Heresy
I have been neglecting Bible study for the past few months. It happens from time to time for one reason or another, coupled with my work schedule - which rotates, so that it is hard for me to attend Church regularly.
I guess God wanted to get my attention in such a way that I would want to get back on track, and I am fortunate that he decided to do it in a somewhat pleasant way. Books. First, a catalog arrived with a somewhat intriguing title. Christianity in Crisis in the 21st Century. Well, I will admit that even then, I didn't really jump up and grab on. But it caught my eye with its description of preaching that undermines true biblical teaching.
Then came a second book. I order books from time to time, so from time to time Amazon sends me lists of books I might be interested in. "Jesus Interrupted." I won't link to it, since it appears from the description to be Complete Heresy. What is worse, I noticed that in May it made it to the top of the best seller list in the category: Bible and Other Sacred Texts, subcategory "Bible Study." Ok, so it is a small category and they didn't have to sell many to get to the top. But it shouldn't get anywhere close at all.
Then, a third book. "The Evolution of God." More Complete Heresy.
Again at the top of a list:
Christianity - Theology - Philosophy
"What is this coming to?," I thought.
And then I knew. I got complacent about the fight because I didn't know what I was fighting. I needed focus, so I ordered Christianity in Crisis, and opened it up. It wasn't talking about the Heresy I thought it would, after the 2nd and 3rd books that God sent my way, but it was about one I have been trying to deal with from time to time for the past couple of years.
There Will be More on this later.
----
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend.
Inside of a dog, it is too dark to read -- Groucho Marx
I guess God wanted to get my attention in such a way that I would want to get back on track, and I am fortunate that he decided to do it in a somewhat pleasant way. Books. First, a catalog arrived with a somewhat intriguing title. Christianity in Crisis in the 21st Century. Well, I will admit that even then, I didn't really jump up and grab on. But it caught my eye with its description of preaching that undermines true biblical teaching.
Then came a second book. I order books from time to time, so from time to time Amazon sends me lists of books I might be interested in. "Jesus Interrupted." I won't link to it, since it appears from the description to be Complete Heresy. What is worse, I noticed that in May it made it to the top of the best seller list in the category: Bible and Other Sacred Texts, subcategory "Bible Study." Ok, so it is a small category and they didn't have to sell many to get to the top. But it shouldn't get anywhere close at all.
Then, a third book. "The Evolution of God." More Complete Heresy.
Again at the top of a list:
Christianity - Theology - Philosophy
"What is this coming to?," I thought.
And then I knew. I got complacent about the fight because I didn't know what I was fighting. I needed focus, so I ordered Christianity in Crisis, and opened it up. It wasn't talking about the Heresy I thought it would, after the 2nd and 3rd books that God sent my way, but it was about one I have been trying to deal with from time to time for the past couple of years.
There Will be More on this later.
----
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend.
Inside of a dog, it is too dark to read -- Groucho Marx
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
remember Tiananmen
Tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of the massacre.
For 15years I tried to find stuff made in the USA, or at least, not made in China. It seems we may have lost the war. They own our debt, and they are our main manufacturing base. I have determined that I cannot change this by myself, and don't try too hard any more to find non chinese made items.
Let us not forget, however that China has not changed. The still attack, and fund others who attack our military, they still use prison labor. They still persecute Christians. They still export poisoned food and baby toys to the US on a regular basis. They still support N.K. They are still the biggest exporters of pirated music, games, and movies (leading to our own government taking draconian measures against its own citizens).
But it is the US government's policy - with support of virtually every congressional district in the US - to support and befriend the chinese government. Under these conditions, I can no longer afford to worry about the trade imbalance or any other hostile acts against the US. I will continue to speak up, and if the US someday wants to elect leaders who actually support their own citizens against the China threat, I will still be here.
For 15years I tried to find stuff made in the USA, or at least, not made in China. It seems we may have lost the war. They own our debt, and they are our main manufacturing base. I have determined that I cannot change this by myself, and don't try too hard any more to find non chinese made items.
Let us not forget, however that China has not changed. The still attack, and fund others who attack our military, they still use prison labor. They still persecute Christians. They still export poisoned food and baby toys to the US on a regular basis. They still support N.K. They are still the biggest exporters of pirated music, games, and movies (leading to our own government taking draconian measures against its own citizens).
But it is the US government's policy - with support of virtually every congressional district in the US - to support and befriend the chinese government. Under these conditions, I can no longer afford to worry about the trade imbalance or any other hostile acts against the US. I will continue to speak up, and if the US someday wants to elect leaders who actually support their own citizens against the China threat, I will still be here.
Friday, May 29, 2009
tunring the corner
A corner may have been turned, on the economy. I have been watching the bond markets, and have been predicting the economy will bottom this fall and begin recovery in a couple of years.
Well, I may have been off a little on the bottoming of the economy. The dry goods shipping index, probably the fastest reliable index of the world economy did a turnaround this month. We are still facing a long recessionary economy, with unemployment not turning around for at least a year, and housing prices not for at least another two years. (Take a look at the difference between the one year, two year, and five year bond interest rates.)
We can next expect a round of high (I won't call it hyper) inflation. More than 30%. Probably more than 60%. But spread out over a few years. I don't know if this will be 20% each year for 3 years or 12% each year for 5 years, but I think it will be somewhere around that three year scenario. So you now have permission to hoard (save) money. And you have permission to move to higher tax brackets, since your tax credits and deductions won't be worth as much. We get this compliments of our government (under both Bush and Obama) printing lots of money.
What I recommend, instead, is to buy things of lasting value, when you have the money. Things like quality hand tools (I no longer really care if they are made in USA, since Stanley started making them in China - that was the last straw), or a good touring bike, that you have already had your eyes on. I am not advocating gold coins at this time, since the price is about 15% over what it should be, and I would never advocate diamonds or any other jewelry type items. (Pretties, no matter how much the girls like them, are a loser's game.)
I will probably will start visiting this subject approximately monthly.
Well, I may have been off a little on the bottoming of the economy. The dry goods shipping index, probably the fastest reliable index of the world economy did a turnaround this month. We are still facing a long recessionary economy, with unemployment not turning around for at least a year, and housing prices not for at least another two years. (Take a look at the difference between the one year, two year, and five year bond interest rates.)
We can next expect a round of high (I won't call it hyper) inflation. More than 30%. Probably more than 60%. But spread out over a few years. I don't know if this will be 20% each year for 3 years or 12% each year for 5 years, but I think it will be somewhere around that three year scenario. So you now have permission to hoard (save) money. And you have permission to move to higher tax brackets, since your tax credits and deductions won't be worth as much. We get this compliments of our government (under both Bush and Obama) printing lots of money.
What I recommend, instead, is to buy things of lasting value, when you have the money. Things like quality hand tools (I no longer really care if they are made in USA, since Stanley started making them in China - that was the last straw), or a good touring bike, that you have already had your eyes on. I am not advocating gold coins at this time, since the price is about 15% over what it should be, and I would never advocate diamonds or any other jewelry type items. (Pretties, no matter how much the girls like them, are a loser's game.)
I will probably will start visiting this subject approximately monthly.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Democrats - Lies, Corruption, and FlipFlops
I find it seriously annoying that I spend so much time on this subject, but the corruption and damage to our nation has just been breathtaking.
One of the leading figures in the Democratic party, Nancy Pelosi has been lying about knowing that the CIA's aggressive interrogations were going on. And what a shame, those interrogations , while bordering on torture, may have saved thousands of lives.
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2009/05/nancy-pelosi-is-lying.html
The Democrat controlled press has been covering up the roots of the Mortgage Meltdown
The following links are about the same.
The only good news lately is that Obama has joined the waffle house bunch as he FlipFlops on Tribunals: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alc4wiFEM0hU&refer=home
UPDATE: A little updating on that Mexican Gun stuff.
Keeping in mind that "FactCheck" is a liberal biased org that will do anything it can get away with to undermine us, they say the numbers are somewhere in between.
Also, from Opposing Views.
One of the leading figures in the Democratic party, Nancy Pelosi has been lying about knowing that the CIA's aggressive interrogations were going on. And what a shame, those interrogations , while bordering on torture, may have saved thousands of lives.
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2009/05/nancy-pelosi-is-lying.html
The Democrat controlled press has been covering up the roots of the Mortgage Meltdown
The following links are about the same.
Obama's Complicity1 and Obama's Complicity2
This one gives a little more detail on ACORN's Complicity
This one shows that liberals, encouraging the poor to live beyond their means by insulating the loan brokers from the risk, was a primary cause of the meltdown, and that the Bush administration warned of the impending collapse.
So, why weren't the warnings heeded? Maybe because Barny Franks prevented the Bush administration from altering Freddie Mac's course by calling it racism.
And now, after the Mexican government, the press, and Obama lied about 90% (the real number is about 17%) of drug cartel's guns coming from the US, so Obama sent hundreds of agents to find them, but of course, they didn't find very many, cause they don't exist. (sadly, this last link comes from AP, and so it will probably disappear - but I hope I can find a more permanent one later.)
The only good news lately is that Obama has joined the waffle house bunch as he FlipFlops on Tribunals: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alc4wiFEM0hU&refer=home
UPDATE: A little updating on that Mexican Gun stuff.
Keeping in mind that "FactCheck" is a liberal biased org that will do anything it can get away with to undermine us, they say the numbers are somewhere in between.
Also, from Opposing Views.
Swine Flu - From Panic to Forgotten
Well, the panic seems to be over for now. But now, is swine flu forgotten? That isn't much better. There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.
First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands any time you come into your house from any public place.
As for society, we need to develop clear guidelines. This time around we closed schools where there was no outbreak, and every state and county had a different standard for what would be released about cases in their area. I would recommend that schools close after the first confirmed case, or after 1% of the school comes down with suspected cases. Of course, there will be people who think the action is too slow, but we have to be practical.
As for information dissemination, I would say that we should publish any county where a case has been found, and the school district if they attend a school. Maybe we need some standard for telling how many cases are confirmed or suspected, but I am not sure what that standard should be.
And we need to develop clear guidelines about the emergency issuing, safeguarding, and tracking of medicines. Especially antibiotics and antivirals.
Despite the lack of attention it is getting since everybody got interested in Nancy Pelosi's denial of knowing about our interragation techniques, let's not completely forget about this pandemic, especially since it IS still going on.
.
First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands any time you come into your house from any public place.
As for society, we need to develop clear guidelines. This time around we closed schools where there was no outbreak, and every state and county had a different standard for what would be released about cases in their area. I would recommend that schools close after the first confirmed case, or after 1% of the school comes down with suspected cases. Of course, there will be people who think the action is too slow, but we have to be practical.
As for information dissemination, I would say that we should publish any county where a case has been found, and the school district if they attend a school. Maybe we need some standard for telling how many cases are confirmed or suspected, but I am not sure what that standard should be.
And we need to develop clear guidelines about the emergency issuing, safeguarding, and tracking of medicines. Especially antibiotics and antivirals.
Despite the lack of attention it is getting since everybody got interested in Nancy Pelosi's denial of knowing about our interragation techniques, let's not completely forget about this pandemic, especially since it IS still going on.
.
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Little Update on DRM
Digital Rights Management - DRM
I was in a discussion recently with some friends, about DRM and other copyright matters. I realised that I had never put all of the resources I know of into one place. While a blog is a rather poor format for assembling such information, I will try to get some of it together here.
First, going back more than 20 years, I had noticed the ever extending copyright laws were quite out of hand, but didn't really put it all together until I read an essay called "The Right to Read." It kinda hit home with me, and all the more so when I read about the attempts by the Roman Catholic Church to prevent the distribution of the Bible in the English language in the 15th and 16th centuries.
In the late 20th century, there was a frantic cycle of extension of copyrights terms and laws giving ever increasing power to corporations to keep any and all public works to themselves. This culminated in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA FAQ here) .
The RIAA emerged as the lead band of thugs enforcing these unconscionable laws. I have written about them a couple of times before, but let it suffice to say that
typically operates in a hit-and-run fashion - they threatens litigation, expecting the victim to panic and plead for mercy; and what follows is a quickie negotiation session that ends with payment. (Hat tip to http://chillingeffects.org/ for the wording here).
Largely this is an attempt to keep an obsolete method of commerce alive when its day had long since passed. There are now other copyright protection ideas (this one used by me). And there are ways to employ artists that don't employ copyright at all, such as The Street Performer Protocol which was presented at the Third USENIX Workshop on Electronic Commerce Proceedings in Nov of 98, by J. Kelsey and B. Schneier.
Well, there are other links of interest for those wishing to research this further.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2006/01/did-sony-bmg-get-sweetheart-deal.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2006/04/net-neutrality.html
Copyright Creep http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2008/06/19.html
Shelf Life of Books http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/07/16.html
Shelf Life Part 2 http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/09/07.html
Shelf Life Part 3 http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/09/28.html
the Seinfeldization of America http://www.salon.com/media/media961108.html
I was in a discussion recently with some friends, about DRM and other copyright matters. I realised that I had never put all of the resources I know of into one place. While a blog is a rather poor format for assembling such information, I will try to get some of it together here.
First, going back more than 20 years, I had noticed the ever extending copyright laws were quite out of hand, but didn't really put it all together until I read an essay called "The Right to Read." It kinda hit home with me, and all the more so when I read about the attempts by the Roman Catholic Church to prevent the distribution of the Bible in the English language in the 15th and 16th centuries.
In the late 20th century, there was a frantic cycle of extension of copyrights terms and laws giving ever increasing power to corporations to keep any and all public works to themselves. This culminated in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA FAQ here) .
The RIAA emerged as the lead band of thugs enforcing these unconscionable laws. I have written about them a couple of times before, but let it suffice to say that
typically operates in a hit-and-run fashion - they threatens litigation, expecting the victim to panic and plead for mercy; and what follows is a quickie negotiation session that ends with payment. (Hat tip to http://chillingeffects.org/ for the wording here).
Largely this is an attempt to keep an obsolete method of commerce alive when its day had long since passed. There are now other copyright protection ideas (this one used by me). And there are ways to employ artists that don't employ copyright at all, such as The Street Performer Protocol which was presented at the Third USENIX Workshop on Electronic Commerce Proceedings in Nov of 98, by J. Kelsey and B. Schneier.
Well, there are other links of interest for those wishing to research this further.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2006/01/did-sony-bmg-get-sweetheart-deal.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2006/04/net-neutrality.html
Copyright Creep http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2008/06/19.html
Shelf Life of Books http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/07/16.html
Shelf Life Part 2 http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/09/07.html
Shelf Life Part 3 http://www.oligopolywatch.com/2003/09/28.html
the Seinfeldization of America http://www.salon.com/media/media961108.html
Monday, May 04, 2009
Swine Flu 3 panic and stupidity
One week after the swine flu burst onto the public scene, the public seems to be in full blown panic mode. I just saw on the news that school closings in TX are double the known cases of the virus, meaning that most of the schools closed have not experianced an outbreak. Public events and entire sports venues canceled. (OK, I heard that last cancelation got nixed)
There may be some signs that the panic is slowing, but around the corner is a whole new outbreak to panic about. Again, closing schools, canceling events or otherwise radically changing your behaviour before the first case in your area is panic. And the next panic, already underway, about the new strain of flu, already found in Canada, may severly damage and entire segment of the economy. One more time: you can't get this from eating pork (unless you are eating a live pig - and then I think the pig would likely bite you back) .
Here is a good resource for information on this flu pandemic. One of the articles about the pandemic panic says it well:
"When a pandemic hits, you deal with it using the resources you've got. Like an unexpected invasion, it's a "come as you are" event. The trick is to foresee the pandemic and to build up the personnel, equipment, and organization to stop it.
But if your response to the threat of pandemic is to be stupidly sanctimonious, all your planning will be in vain."
Good wording. Overall though, on a personal level, what the government or public at large does will have little effect on whether you get the flu or not (though it may delay you getting it for some weeks). Your own behaviour will be the biggest factor in whether you get it, that and total random chance. Using good sence, like washing hands and keeping your kitchen area clean, will go a long way. Other than that, your best bet is to be prepared in case it does come to your house.
There may be some signs that the panic is slowing, but around the corner is a whole new outbreak to panic about. Again, closing schools, canceling events or otherwise radically changing your behaviour before the first case in your area is panic. And the next panic, already underway, about the new strain of flu, already found in Canada, may severly damage and entire segment of the economy. One more time: you can't get this from eating pork (unless you are eating a live pig - and then I think the pig would likely bite you back) .
Here is a good resource for information on this flu pandemic. One of the articles about the pandemic panic says it well:
"When a pandemic hits, you deal with it using the resources you've got. Like an unexpected invasion, it's a "come as you are" event. The trick is to foresee the pandemic and to build up the personnel, equipment, and organization to stop it.
But if your response to the threat of pandemic is to be stupidly sanctimonious, all your planning will be in vain."
Good wording. Overall though, on a personal level, what the government or public at large does will have little effect on whether you get the flu or not (though it may delay you getting it for some weeks). Your own behaviour will be the biggest factor in whether you get it, that and total random chance. Using good sence, like washing hands and keeping your kitchen area clean, will go a long way. Other than that, your best bet is to be prepared in case it does come to your house.
Friday, May 01, 2009
Swine Flu 2
What a difference 2 days makes. Now we have panic all across the US about an epidemic that will likely not be much worse than the seasonal flu that comes around every year.
I warned against panic three times in my previous article, but I would give President Obama a C- for his handling of this issue, since I have not heard him warn against panic.
Let me be clear. The closing of schools where there have not yet been any cases, and canceling of public events where there is not already large numbers of cases is panic, and is irrational. What is the goal of closing public schools that have not yet seen cases of the flu? They will be behind in their work and have clean and steril desks for when the flu does show up. The flu will have the best of all environments to operate in, since it will not have to compete with the normal flora and everyone will be behind in their work, and so will not dare take another day off, untill the symptoms are unmistakable and they have passed it on to several others.
I made the statement that everyone should have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap in case there is panic buying. Don't go overboard, as some people did in previous crises. I found an interesting article about a panic in Oct 62 that could shed some light on that. Again, don't panic.
I warned against panic three times in my previous article, but I would give President Obama a C- for his handling of this issue, since I have not heard him warn against panic.
Let me be clear. The closing of schools where there have not yet been any cases, and canceling of public events where there is not already large numbers of cases is panic, and is irrational. What is the goal of closing public schools that have not yet seen cases of the flu? They will be behind in their work and have clean and steril desks for when the flu does show up. The flu will have the best of all environments to operate in, since it will not have to compete with the normal flora and everyone will be behind in their work, and so will not dare take another day off, untill the symptoms are unmistakable and they have passed it on to several others.
I made the statement that everyone should have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap in case there is panic buying. Don't go overboard, as some people did in previous crises. I found an interesting article about a panic in Oct 62 that could shed some light on that. Again, don't panic.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
