A current requirement of any headlight I buy (and I buy quite a few, both for me and for some of my friends) is that they have a red light LED setting. The reasons for this are pretty simple, and I will present three or four, depending on how you count them.
The first red light doesn't kill night vision. This is the real reason the military has provided red lenses on their flashlights for more years than I can remember. (I will expose a myth later) The red light, while not ideal for seeing things, is adequate for identifying location and shape of objects, which is the primary purpose of using a light.
Red LED's are more efficient. Simply stated, red LED's, to produce the same amount of light, require only about half (maybe less) of the power of white LED's. This is because the white LED's use produce one color of light, and use that light to excite phosphorous to create the rest of the spectrum.
Combined, the above effects allow for for less than one fourth of the battery drain, and your batteries can be drained further. The ultimate result is a usable battery life nearly eight times what you would get with white light. This will give you a great deal of leverage to reduce the number of AAA and even AA batteries you need to keep on hand. Even better if you have one of the few LED lanterns that have a red LED setting and use D batteries (D batteries provide a lot more energy for your dollar).
Last but not least.
The last advantage I will cover is red light doesn't attract mosquitoes. Mosquitoes, and most other insects are attracted to blue light (think: bug zapper). White light contains blue light, so mosquitoes are attracted to it. The yellow porch lights don't give off much blue light, so bugs pretty much ignore them (as an aside, I once painted a CFL half yellow and half red, and the result was a little light that gave nearly normal color vision but didn't attract insects and didn't blind people)
Now, on to the myth.
As with anything the Army does, some mythology grows up around it. What red light doesn't do is make you unseen by others. Think about it. Towers have red lights on them so they can be seen by aircraft. In fact red light can be seen a long ways away. Blue light is harder to see at a long distance, but in fact, any light can be seen much further than the average person would expect. And I don't recommend blue light because of it's attraction to mosquitoes.
Showing posts with label disaster-prep. Show all posts
Showing posts with label disaster-prep. Show all posts
Friday, January 17, 2014
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Gun advise number 6
A modification and update to what I have previously written on guns and ammo.
As I have learned more about guns and ammo over the two years since I wrote on the subject, and as the world situation has changed, I find I need to modify my advice on the subject, mainly about ammo.
Today's world has become a lot more dangerous, and the prudent homeowner or family defender needs to improve their skills, since there is no point in scoring a second place finish.
Today's threat is more likely to be armed, more likely to be more than one attacker, more likely to attack violently and suddenly, and most of the time, in low light situations.
I am discussing home defense almost exclusively here, and will take up other related subjects in future articles.
How much ammo do I need to keep on hand?
First, as a lesson learned during the recent ammo droughts, I now believe everyone should be buying their ammo by the case. Initially buy a case of each kind of practice ammo you plan to use, and find a kind of defense ammo you are satisfied with (more about that later, since I will be modifying my advice on defense ammo) and buy at least enough to cover the three year supply I discuss here.
My current advise is to keep a three year supply of ammo, at your normal usage rate. This means that if you shoot once a quarter, and each time you shoot, you use about 50 rounds, you need to have about 600 rounds of ammo. My next point is that you should be shooting at least a few of your defense rounds each time you go to the range, so you will be certain your weapon will fire them reliably. This isn't too important with a revolver (unless your defense and practice ammo are vastly different, and then you should do it to insure you can reliably hit the target with it), but with an semiautomatic handgun, or even a defense rifle, I recommend, at the very least, shoot the last round of fire be with your defense ammo.
So, doing the math, if you shoot 50 rounds of practice ammo and 10 rounds of defense ammo each quarter, you also need 120 rounds of defense ammo. If you have a compact revolver, and only shoot 15 rounds of practice and 5 of defense, you only need 180 rounds of practice and 60 of defense, but I would go ahead and buy a case of the practice ammo, just to get a better price. You will probably use it eventually.
More info on JHP ammo.
I wrote before about how to select defense ammo, but a few factors have come to my attention since then. To expand properly, almost all hollow point ammo need to impact at around 800 fps or more. Also, to gain penetration depth the round needs to be fairly heavy for the caliber.
I found a passage in an article of Shooting Illustrated that sums up using a handgun to defend yourself in a gunfight today:
This problem really gets difficult with the 2in to 3in barrel lengh found on some subcompact pistols used for concealed carry. A secondary problem with defensive ammo, which is made worse with a short barrel, is muzzle flash. Hornady makes a Critical Defense round and Buffalow Bore makes ammo for defensive pistol use that is flash suppressed and is specifically designed to generate a lot of power from a short barrel. I believe Speer uses the same powder (but with a slightly lighter charge) in their Gold Dot ammo. Corbon and possibly a couple other brands may be marketing flash suppressed powers also. but I can't find their spec's at this time.
Over the past two years I have studied ammo design and watched dozens of tests using a standard block of gelatin covered with four layers of denim. The effect desired is to see a large cavity just after the bullet enters the geletain, and the bullet penetrating 12-15 inches into the block of gel. The denim mimics heavy clothing (and is near the worst case) that might clog the nose of a hollow point bullet. The geletain, while not completely mimicing real life tissue, is about as close as any consistant medium gets.
And the key word here is consistant. Bullets will behave differently in body tissues, but how they will behave
will depend on where in the body they are. The test gives results that are consistent for testing one bullet against another. There are variations on this test, using a layer of simulated bone or using phone books instead of geletain. The big advantage of geletain is that impact on the geletain results in expansion of the bullet in a fasion almost identical to the expansion you get from most body tissues. The disadvantage is that once the bullet drops to a lower speed, it will continue forward further than it will in body tissue, especially muscle, cartilage or bone, thus the need for 15 inches penetration.
Over the past 15 years, there has been a considerable improvement made in bullet design. The ends of hollow point bullets today have notches and grooves cut in them, making them expand more easily, but preventing them from expanding so far they cannot penetrate far or break though bone. Some bullets now have a polymer plug in the hollow cavity that prevents them from clogging when they pass through something before hitting tissue. (A variant on this is the soft point found on some ammo that will expand a lot like a hollow point, such as found in "Guard Dog" ammo). In addition, the better JHP's today have a bonded jacket (or are completly alloy) that insures the bullet will not frament, since fragmentation will reduce penetration depth.
http://www.shootingillustrated.com/index.php/22626/federal-guard-dog/
Another place I will make an adjustment to my former advise is shotgun ammo. I still recommend ONLY buckshot for self defense, but now I will say any good "name brand" #4 buckshot load will suffice. 12 gauge shells come in 2-3/4 inch and 3 inch. Some shotguns will only take the 2-3/4 inch, so I recommend getting that size exclusively. That way ammo can be traded with a neighbor if need be. No need for premium anything. At close range 12 gauge delivers more than double the shock, and causes more than double the bleeding of any common handgun caliber. At medium to long range, a lighter load will allow you to make follow up shots faster and more accurately.
In my third article, I said on the second or third trip to the range, you may want to try doing a double tap (attempting to hit the center of the target twice as quickly as possible) or engage multiple targets. And I said "How much or how often you need to practice does depend on how much responsibility you have."
But todays criminals are tougher, more likely to be armed, and more likely to work in teams.
Now I say train until you can hit center of the target two or three times quickly and train until you can hit multiple targets quickly. But never practice doing it faster than you can score hits. Missed shots not only don't count, they count against you. According to one article I read, you should be firing your shots less than six seconds after putting your sights on the target. Too long and your muscles will begin to fatigue and shake. At close range, of course, you should be able to get off at least one shot per second. To achieve this level of proficiency will likely take a lot of dry fire practice, and several trips to the range.
As I have learned more about guns and ammo over the two years since I wrote on the subject, and as the world situation has changed, I find I need to modify my advice on the subject, mainly about ammo.
Today's world has become a lot more dangerous, and the prudent homeowner or family defender needs to improve their skills, since there is no point in scoring a second place finish.
Today's threat is more likely to be armed, more likely to be more than one attacker, more likely to attack violently and suddenly, and most of the time, in low light situations.
I am discussing home defense almost exclusively here, and will take up other related subjects in future articles.
How much ammo do I need to keep on hand?
First, as a lesson learned during the recent ammo droughts, I now believe everyone should be buying their ammo by the case. Initially buy a case of each kind of practice ammo you plan to use, and find a kind of defense ammo you are satisfied with (more about that later, since I will be modifying my advice on defense ammo) and buy at least enough to cover the three year supply I discuss here.
My current advise is to keep a three year supply of ammo, at your normal usage rate. This means that if you shoot once a quarter, and each time you shoot, you use about 50 rounds, you need to have about 600 rounds of ammo. My next point is that you should be shooting at least a few of your defense rounds each time you go to the range, so you will be certain your weapon will fire them reliably. This isn't too important with a revolver (unless your defense and practice ammo are vastly different, and then you should do it to insure you can reliably hit the target with it), but with an semiautomatic handgun, or even a defense rifle, I recommend, at the very least, shoot the last round of fire be with your defense ammo.
So, doing the math, if you shoot 50 rounds of practice ammo and 10 rounds of defense ammo each quarter, you also need 120 rounds of defense ammo. If you have a compact revolver, and only shoot 15 rounds of practice and 5 of defense, you only need 180 rounds of practice and 60 of defense, but I would go ahead and buy a case of the practice ammo, just to get a better price. You will probably use it eventually.
More info on JHP ammo.
I wrote before about how to select defense ammo, but a few factors have come to my attention since then. To expand properly, almost all hollow point ammo need to impact at around 800 fps or more. Also, to gain penetration depth the round needs to be fairly heavy for the caliber.
I found a passage in an article of Shooting Illustrated that sums up using a handgun to defend yourself in a gunfight today:
"Defensive handguns are very inadequate at stopping bad guys. The bullets make small holes and damage small amounts of tissue. Like GunSite instructor Charlie McNeese says, “Humans are hydraulic machines; they run on fluid.” All you can really hope a defensive handgun bullet will do is let a lot of fluid out in a hurry.
The problem with this approach is that even with a big leak, a bad guy can operate long enough to return the favor."http://www.shootingillustrated.com/index.php/28223/hornady-critical-duty/
This problem really gets difficult with the 2in to 3in barrel lengh found on some subcompact pistols used for concealed carry. A secondary problem with defensive ammo, which is made worse with a short barrel, is muzzle flash. Hornady makes a Critical Defense round and Buffalow Bore makes ammo for defensive pistol use that is flash suppressed and is specifically designed to generate a lot of power from a short barrel. I believe Speer uses the same powder (but with a slightly lighter charge) in their Gold Dot ammo. Corbon and possibly a couple other brands may be marketing flash suppressed powers also. but I can't find their spec's at this time.
Over the past two years I have studied ammo design and watched dozens of tests using a standard block of gelatin covered with four layers of denim. The effect desired is to see a large cavity just after the bullet enters the geletain, and the bullet penetrating 12-15 inches into the block of gel. The denim mimics heavy clothing (and is near the worst case) that might clog the nose of a hollow point bullet. The geletain, while not completely mimicing real life tissue, is about as close as any consistant medium gets.
And the key word here is consistant. Bullets will behave differently in body tissues, but how they will behave
will depend on where in the body they are. The test gives results that are consistent for testing one bullet against another. There are variations on this test, using a layer of simulated bone or using phone books instead of geletain. The big advantage of geletain is that impact on the geletain results in expansion of the bullet in a fasion almost identical to the expansion you get from most body tissues. The disadvantage is that once the bullet drops to a lower speed, it will continue forward further than it will in body tissue, especially muscle, cartilage or bone, thus the need for 15 inches penetration.
Over the past 15 years, there has been a considerable improvement made in bullet design. The ends of hollow point bullets today have notches and grooves cut in them, making them expand more easily, but preventing them from expanding so far they cannot penetrate far or break though bone. Some bullets now have a polymer plug in the hollow cavity that prevents them from clogging when they pass through something before hitting tissue. (A variant on this is the soft point found on some ammo that will expand a lot like a hollow point, such as found in "Guard Dog" ammo). In addition, the better JHP's today have a bonded jacket (or are completly alloy) that insures the bullet will not frament, since fragmentation will reduce penetration depth.
http://www.shootingillustrated.com/index.php/22626/federal-guard-dog/
Another place I will make an adjustment to my former advise is shotgun ammo. I still recommend ONLY buckshot for self defense, but now I will say any good "name brand" #4 buckshot load will suffice. 12 gauge shells come in 2-3/4 inch and 3 inch. Some shotguns will only take the 2-3/4 inch, so I recommend getting that size exclusively. That way ammo can be traded with a neighbor if need be. No need for premium anything. At close range 12 gauge delivers more than double the shock, and causes more than double the bleeding of any common handgun caliber. At medium to long range, a lighter load will allow you to make follow up shots faster and more accurately.
In my third article, I said on the second or third trip to the range, you may want to try doing a double tap (attempting to hit the center of the target twice as quickly as possible) or engage multiple targets. And I said "How much or how often you need to practice does depend on how much responsibility you have."
But todays criminals are tougher, more likely to be armed, and more likely to work in teams.
Now I say train until you can hit center of the target two or three times quickly and train until you can hit multiple targets quickly. But never practice doing it faster than you can score hits. Missed shots not only don't count, they count against you. According to one article I read, you should be firing your shots less than six seconds after putting your sights on the target. Too long and your muscles will begin to fatigue and shake. At close range, of course, you should be able to get off at least one shot per second. To achieve this level of proficiency will likely take a lot of dry fire practice, and several trips to the range.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Prepping, if done right, is Politically Incorrect
While it can be shown, logically, that being a prepper is a responsible and mature response to the realities of this world, "sadly, it appears that being a 'prepper' is now enough to get special attention from the authorities." That quote and the following excerpt are from an article on World View Weekend.
(about halfway through the article)
Why are preppers hated so much
All of this, I would say leads to the conclusion that OPSEC is the order of the day. Be careful who you talk to about preparations and under no circumstances allow yourself, personally, to be exposed on TV or radio.
Possible Scenarios - or - What Could Possibly Go Wrong...
There are, basically, three primary things that could go wrong in the US. These are the things we prepare for. Loss of transportation, loss of electric power, and civil unrest. (If you can think of anything else, let me know)
Generally, these things are not root causes. An Epidemic or Midwest Earthquake could shut down transportation. A Solar storm, major hurricane or nuclear detonation could shut down the electric power grid. Some portions of the government are currently trying to precipitate civil unrest, to be used as a pretext to their tyrannical desires. They could succeed, or ethnic insanity could simply get out of hand, or some disaster could cause civil unrest.
The end result is pretty much the same. Those who are prepared will have it much better than those who are not.
God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).
Food for thought (or "more ramblings") about
Considerations that we may have previously overlooked
Much of what we are stockpiling has an expiration date, and much of what is written about prepping has to do with getting started, or the end game. What if we don't see the end game for several years?
We (especially those of us, like me, past the halfway point in life) need to be thinking beyond ourselves. What if our preps outlive us? What if the SHTF and our friends, neighbors, relatives, or kids need our help? Charity cannot be forgotten. Sometimes, in a crisis, you might have to help a stranger, even if it is passing food or water across a fence or other defensive fortification, so that they have a chance to live too. (You might want to remember this expression, Ask and you shall receive, but you loot, and we shoot.)
I highly recommend anyone stockpiling to do their storage planning and inventories early, and to include expiration planning on everything they store. The main difference between a prepper and a hoarder, is their inventory control. The prepper knows what he has, why, and how long it is good for.
Some guy named Selco writes for a SHTF School. One of the things he says about Americans is we place too much emphasis on beans, not enough on band-aids. Of course, his being a medic by trade may have something to do with it, or the fact that he saw people die from run of the mill infections, during the Siege of Sarajevo (1992).
Unless you can cover yourself for extended periods of unemployment, in conjunction with unemployment of friends or family, you need to keep a reverse strategy in mind for any preps you put money into. This means knowing where you can sell silver or ammo, and knowing which food you can eat first, to save on groceries while unemployed.
If someone is talking about the "end of fiat currency" and that after the meltdown we will "go back to using gold and silver" to trade with, forget listening to them. Any and all currency is only worth something if someone is willing to take it in exchange for food, shelter or clothing. That includes gold or silver. Selco (see above) said that during the Siege, the only thing gold would get you is killed. What did they use for currency? Canned food, especially corned beef, and small bottles of liquor were common. Cigarettes, and various niceties that you take for granted every day.
In the years after a collapse, if things ever return to "normal," there will again be currency. If you make it to then. But in the years of the collapse, materials and skills needed to live day to day will be the currency.
(about halfway through the article)
Why are preppers hated so much
On Thursday last week, no less than 150 armed and militarized police and FBI agents in he guise of tactical assault teams descended on Porter's house as if they were confronting a terrorist cell. The raid also included helicopters, SWAT crews, armored vehicles and even excavation equipment.
Porter was absent at the time of the raid but turned himself in the next morning at Hagerstown Barrack.
After the raid, the claim that Porter was stockpiling "10-15 machine gun-style firearms" was demolished when police uncovered "four shotguns, a .30-30-caliber rifle and two .22-caliber rifles," hardly a deadly mass arsenal.
Would 150 officers have shown up at his home if he had not been identified as a "prepper"?
Of course not.
So why are preppers hated so much?
It is because they are a direct challenge to the status quo. Just by prepping, preppers are proclaiming that they do not have faith in the system. But most people have complete and total faith in the system, and many of them do not like to have that faith questioned.
All of this, I would say leads to the conclusion that OPSEC is the order of the day. Be careful who you talk to about preparations and under no circumstances allow yourself, personally, to be exposed on TV or radio.
Possible Scenarios - or - What Could Possibly Go Wrong...
There are, basically, three primary things that could go wrong in the US. These are the things we prepare for. Loss of transportation, loss of electric power, and civil unrest. (If you can think of anything else, let me know)
Generally, these things are not root causes. An Epidemic or Midwest Earthquake could shut down transportation. A Solar storm, major hurricane or nuclear detonation could shut down the electric power grid. Some portions of the government are currently trying to precipitate civil unrest, to be used as a pretext to their tyrannical desires. They could succeed, or ethnic insanity could simply get out of hand, or some disaster could cause civil unrest.
The end result is pretty much the same. Those who are prepared will have it much better than those who are not.
God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).
Food for thought (or "more ramblings") about
Considerations that we may have previously overlooked
Much of what we are stockpiling has an expiration date, and much of what is written about prepping has to do with getting started, or the end game. What if we don't see the end game for several years?
We (especially those of us, like me, past the halfway point in life) need to be thinking beyond ourselves. What if our preps outlive us? What if the SHTF and our friends, neighbors, relatives, or kids need our help? Charity cannot be forgotten. Sometimes, in a crisis, you might have to help a stranger, even if it is passing food or water across a fence or other defensive fortification, so that they have a chance to live too. (You might want to remember this expression, Ask and you shall receive, but you loot, and we shoot.)
I highly recommend anyone stockpiling to do their storage planning and inventories early, and to include expiration planning on everything they store. The main difference between a prepper and a hoarder, is their inventory control. The prepper knows what he has, why, and how long it is good for.
Some guy named Selco writes for a SHTF School. One of the things he says about Americans is we place too much emphasis on beans, not enough on band-aids. Of course, his being a medic by trade may have something to do with it, or the fact that he saw people die from run of the mill infections, during the Siege of Sarajevo (1992).
Unless you can cover yourself for extended periods of unemployment, in conjunction with unemployment of friends or family, you need to keep a reverse strategy in mind for any preps you put money into. This means knowing where you can sell silver or ammo, and knowing which food you can eat first, to save on groceries while unemployed.
If someone is talking about the "end of fiat currency" and that after the meltdown we will "go back to using gold and silver" to trade with, forget listening to them. Any and all currency is only worth something if someone is willing to take it in exchange for food, shelter or clothing. That includes gold or silver. Selco (see above) said that during the Siege, the only thing gold would get you is killed. What did they use for currency? Canned food, especially corned beef, and small bottles of liquor were common. Cigarettes, and various niceties that you take for granted every day.
In the years after a collapse, if things ever return to "normal," there will again be currency. If you make it to then. But in the years of the collapse, materials and skills needed to live day to day will be the currency.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
The Beginnings of Prepping
In the "Preppers" series on NatGeo, most of the preppers there are prepping for one scenario or another. It is always good to have some scenario in mind, to give yourself a foundation for brainstorming. (Hmmm, if "this" happens, then I will need what?)
I have seen exactly one who said he was prepping for anything unexpected that might come along. The bottom line, though, is that most of them are prepping for some disaster that probably will never come, and the primary focus of the NatGeo video seems to be to make them look like a nut job. Never mind that prepping for any scenario will make surviving any other scenario more likely.
Myself, I use an extended electrical power outage as my baseline. In my area, gas pumps would not work, the cash registers and other stuff at all the supermarkets would not work, city gas would go out in a few days, and it would not be too long before people would be roaming the streets looking for something to take home.
Right now, nothing is looking like it will happen in the next few months, but remember, prepping is something you do when there is no threat. (And that automatically makes you some kind of nut job.)
At an influenza related blog
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/search?q=Prepare
I found some ethical advice that mirrors some of why I first started prepping.
. . . individuals and families who can afford it should do their best to prepare for any disaster. The paper notes, the more initiative the general public exercises in stockpiling several weeks' worth of food, water, paper goods, batteries medicines, and other needed supplies, the less vulnerable they will be to a break in the supply chain.The Smallest Ideas. Buy what you use but just buy it ahead of when you need it. Pick something different each month, especially if it is "on sale" and buy a case of it.
It is important for leaders to communicate to the middle class and the wealthy that it is their responsibility to prepare for self-sufficiency in order to free up scarce supplies and allow first responders to direct their attention towards those too poor or vulnerable to prepare themselves.
(I call this micro prepping)
Buy cotton goods now, for future use. Cotton, and most cotton goods are at the lowest prices they have been in years. And they are not likely to go any lower, but will probably see many years of higher prices.
Gold won't be of any use in a real shtf scenario, I remember one guy who lived through a real long term disaster, and he said gold would get you nothing worthwhile, but it would probably get you killed.
When I first began prepping, it was sort of half hazard. I wrote a bug out plan, I stored some water, and some food. Some medicine. I acquired some battery powered radios. As time went by, I realized I needed to make the plan more well thought out, so I broke my planning system into five areas of thought.
1 writing a system of plans
2 material acquisitions
3 developing a plan for staying informed after disaster
4 determining what can be used as trading stock during or after a disaster
5 Shopping lists
At this point I started browsing web sites and forums to gather ideas and began to write out all of my plans and procedures and add some friends into the planning and preparing. So far, the cooperation isn't working too well because most of my friends are either way ahead of me, or way behind.
The lesson here, though, is that prepping isn't something done in a week or a year, it is a road we either travel on, or we don't.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Coming Famines and Epidemics
In the past, everyone worried about how much oil or other forms of energy (primarily fossil fuels) would be available from the earth. This is no longer a worry, but there is the question of whether the governments of the earth will allow us to have it. The technology and known resources exist to sustain us for at least 40 years. And at a pretty reasonable cost (not like we remember it, but not bad).
The real problem will be food.
The world population has just hit the 7 billion person mark, up from 6 billion twelve years ago. The world adds 75 million each year. Back around twelve years ago, someone asked me how many people I thought the world could support, and I told them about 1 or 2 billion. They said I was wrong, as the world already had 6 billion. I just smiled at them and walked away. I don't think they got it. Our days were numbered, even then. At this point, I think maybe 3 billion, but no where near 7 billion. Anyone remember "Soylant Green"? Now would be a good time to take another look at that movie. It isn't far off.
Currently there is plenty of food, and only scattered reports of famine along a line from Congo to Indonesia. This could be deceptive, as there isn't much food in the pipeline and none in any kind of stockpile or warehousing system. Some of the stuff I have studied says that when the stock levels (most of which is at distribution points or on trucks) drops below a critical point, where people will pay almost any price for it, the price spikes up rapidly. It isn't a smooth curve, and before it gets critical, there is very little movement in price. (For more information, there is a link in the "link farm section of this blog.)
Another thing about higher population density is that epidemics will spread much more readily through densely populated areas. This has happened before, with the loss of more than 25% of the world population in less than a century. And that was without jet airplanes. Today it could happen in just a couple years.
In the near future I hope to discuss the consequences and complications of high population densities across the planet, which I think will eventually culminate in the third and Fourth Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
The recent strain of influenza made its way through our population at a fairly high rate seems to be dying out. It spread at major epidemic levels that would have had schools closing during the 2009 pandemic. This level of spread normally goes on for a few weeks, until the number of easily infected people begins to be reduced. Once there are fewer easy hosts, the epidemic dies out quickly.
In addition, there seems to be some evidence that there are more people, than in the past, who just don't react to the shots by building the expected level of immune response. This is a disturbing trend, meaning that either the current vaccines are flawed, or like antibiotics, the end of the vaccine age is upon us.
I wrote about the epidemic of 2009, as it spread into the US. Within days and lasting for a few weeks there was panic and people would beg, borrow and steal to get the vaccine. Two weeks later, as the news cycle progressed and people weren't dying in the streets, the panic turned almost instantly into complacency, and they couldn't even give the vaccine away. The epidemic went on for a few more weeks after that, and even returned the following school year, but without the panic. Of course, part of the problem was that media whipped the people into a panic. Another part of the problem was that politicians were using the anxiety for their own political purposes. (Don't believe in each other, or in God. Believe in big government.)
One of the things that I said during that pandemic still is true:
There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.
First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands every time you come into your house from any public place.
Good links for background.
Current info for this article found here:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/search/label/Influenza
Then my older blog entries.
The May 4 2009 and October 25 2009 articles are especially good.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/search/label/Epidemic
The May 4th artical links to this through the words "pandemic panic"
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/05/pandemic-come-as-you-are-dumb-as-you-are.html
The real problem will be food.
The world population has just hit the 7 billion person mark, up from 6 billion twelve years ago. The world adds 75 million each year. Back around twelve years ago, someone asked me how many people I thought the world could support, and I told them about 1 or 2 billion. They said I was wrong, as the world already had 6 billion. I just smiled at them and walked away. I don't think they got it. Our days were numbered, even then. At this point, I think maybe 3 billion, but no where near 7 billion. Anyone remember "Soylant Green"? Now would be a good time to take another look at that movie. It isn't far off.
Currently there is plenty of food, and only scattered reports of famine along a line from Congo to Indonesia. This could be deceptive, as there isn't much food in the pipeline and none in any kind of stockpile or warehousing system. Some of the stuff I have studied says that when the stock levels (most of which is at distribution points or on trucks) drops below a critical point, where people will pay almost any price for it, the price spikes up rapidly. It isn't a smooth curve, and before it gets critical, there is very little movement in price. (For more information, there is a link in the "link farm section of this blog.)
Another thing about higher population density is that epidemics will spread much more readily through densely populated areas. This has happened before, with the loss of more than 25% of the world population in less than a century. And that was without jet airplanes. Today it could happen in just a couple years.
In the near future I hope to discuss the consequences and complications of high population densities across the planet, which I think will eventually culminate in the third and Fourth Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
The recent strain of influenza made its way through our population at a fairly high rate seems to be dying out. It spread at major epidemic levels that would have had schools closing during the 2009 pandemic. This level of spread normally goes on for a few weeks, until the number of easily infected people begins to be reduced. Once there are fewer easy hosts, the epidemic dies out quickly.
In addition, there seems to be some evidence that there are more people, than in the past, who just don't react to the shots by building the expected level of immune response. This is a disturbing trend, meaning that either the current vaccines are flawed, or like antibiotics, the end of the vaccine age is upon us.
I wrote about the epidemic of 2009, as it spread into the US. Within days and lasting for a few weeks there was panic and people would beg, borrow and steal to get the vaccine. Two weeks later, as the news cycle progressed and people weren't dying in the streets, the panic turned almost instantly into complacency, and they couldn't even give the vaccine away. The epidemic went on for a few more weeks after that, and even returned the following school year, but without the panic. Of course, part of the problem was that media whipped the people into a panic. Another part of the problem was that politicians were using the anxiety for their own political purposes. (Don't believe in each other, or in God. Believe in big government.)
One of the things that I said during that pandemic still is true:
There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.
First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands every time you come into your house from any public place.
Good links for background.
Current info for this article found here:
http://afludiary.blogspot.com/search/label/Influenza
Then my older blog entries.
The May 4 2009 and October 25 2009 articles are especially good.
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/search/label/Epidemic
The May 4th artical links to this through the words "pandemic panic"
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/05/pandemic-come-as-you-are-dumb-as-you-are.html
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Obama Reelected
I once again have to consider whether to keep this blog public. I guess I will, but I am also considering producing a private newsletter only to those who know me and ask for it. (Of course, I also have to know you.)
The newsletter would be monthly, and be part discussion on Biblical Prophesy and part discussion on Prepping and Surviving a collapse of civilization.
I need comments on this subject if I am going to do the newsletter. I would also require some feedback (not every issue) on the newsletter, from time to time.
I guess I must note that you can leave comments on here and they will remain private if you wish. That way you can send me your email address or such. Simply say in the comment that it is private and I will take down the info and delete the comment without it ever showing up on the blog.
The newsletter would be monthly, and be part discussion on Biblical Prophesy and part discussion on Prepping and Surviving a collapse of civilization.
I need comments on this subject if I am going to do the newsletter. I would also require some feedback (not every issue) on the newsletter, from time to time.
I guess I must note that you can leave comments on here and they will remain private if you wish. That way you can send me your email address or such. Simply say in the comment that it is private and I will take down the info and delete the comment without it ever showing up on the blog.
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Some General Notes About Prepping
I have said before that if you have enough money to be able to afford Cable TV, then you have enough money to follow the five rules of finance that I recommend.
I would modify that, ever so slightly today. As part of a methodical savings plan, I would say we need to be prepping for disaster. I noted that the Red Cross was tapped out in June of 2008.
People, in general, do not learn from past disasters. This was evidenced by the lack of preparedness when Wilma hit Florida, 3 months after Katrina and Rita, and with plenty of warning.
Here is something I wrote, about 4 years ago about being prepared.
As most people will not be prepared for a major disaster, some things might be kept on hand, just for bartering with other, less prepared people. (Biblical References: Genesis 41:33-57)
The following is clipped from one of those "paper money is worthless and gold is the only real money" web sites. The web site, as a whole, is pretty much loony, but this article is good:
Begin Clip:
There are a lot of different opinions as to what items will be best for barter in a post-collapse world where the underground economy may be the only viable economy for the passing of goods and services. That said, consider this a starting point as you begin to acquire goods for barter.
In no particular order, consider accumulating some of the following items for barter purposes. And keep in mind that in a post-collapse world, the items do not necessarily have to be new, but simply serviceable.
Water purification supplies including purification tabs and filters
Hand tools including hatchets, saws, machetes and general fix-it tools
Fire making supplies, including lighters, matches, flint fire steel
Sanitary supplies including toilet paper, feminine products and diapers
Disposable razors and razor blades
Fuel, any and all kinds (gas, diesel, propane, kerosene)
Prescription drugs, painkillers, and antibiotics
First aid remedies such as cough syrup, cortisone cream, boil-ese, calamine lotion and topical pain relievers
Spirits such as bourbon, rum, gin, and vodka
Coffee and tea (instant coffee is okay)
Solar battery charger and rechargeable batteries
Standard Batteries
Reading glasses
Paracord
Bags, including large garbage bags as well as smaller zip-close bags
Plastic sheeting
Duct tape
Tie Wraps
Heavy plastic sheets and tarps
Toiletries including toothpaste, dental floss soaps, shampoo (tip: save those small sized toiletries that are provided by hotels and motels)
Condoms
Latex or Nitrile gloves in a variety of sizes
Hard candy
Fishing supplies
Knives of various types including fixed blades, kitchen knives, and box cutters
Condiments and Spices
Paperback books on a variety of subjects
Tobacco and cigarette rolling supplies
Amusements such as playing cards, crossword puzzle books, Sudoku
Pencils & paper
Pepper spray
Garden seeds
Flashlights
Vinegar and baking soda to use in DIY cleaning supplies
Empty spray bottles and squirt bottles
Hand pumps for both air and liquids
Mylar blankets and tents
Hand warmers
Sewing and mending supplies
Knitting or crochet needles and yarn
One thing you will notice that I have not included firearms or ammo and for good reason. In a post-collapse society, you might not know your barter partners well and may run the risk that they will use these items against you so that they can steal the rest of your stuff. One person’s opinion, anyway.
I would modify that, ever so slightly today. As part of a methodical savings plan, I would say we need to be prepping for disaster. I noted that the Red Cross was tapped out in June of 2008.
People, in general, do not learn from past disasters. This was evidenced by the lack of preparedness when Wilma hit Florida, 3 months after Katrina and Rita, and with plenty of warning.
Here is something I wrote, about 4 years ago about being prepared.
In the foreseeable future (and yes, those of you who know me know that I have said similar things before) disasters will become the norm. If you are not currently recovering from a disaster, then you should be thinking about (and preparing for) the next one. This may sound a little calloused, but most of the people in New Orleans in 2005 and those in Houston and Galveston this month were deluded into thinking it never could happen to them.Keep in mind, Hurricanes happen every few years along the Gulf Coast
As most people will not be prepared for a major disaster, some things might be kept on hand, just for bartering with other, less prepared people. (Biblical References: Genesis 41:33-57)
The following is clipped from one of those "paper money is worthless and gold is the only real money" web sites. The web site, as a whole, is pretty much loony, but this article is good:
Begin Clip:
There are a lot of different opinions as to what items will be best for barter in a post-collapse world where the underground economy may be the only viable economy for the passing of goods and services. That said, consider this a starting point as you begin to acquire goods for barter.
In no particular order, consider accumulating some of the following items for barter purposes. And keep in mind that in a post-collapse world, the items do not necessarily have to be new, but simply serviceable.
Water purification supplies including purification tabs and filters
Hand tools including hatchets, saws, machetes and general fix-it tools
Fire making supplies, including lighters, matches, flint fire steel
Sanitary supplies including toilet paper, feminine products and diapers
Disposable razors and razor blades
Fuel, any and all kinds (gas, diesel, propane, kerosene)
Prescription drugs, painkillers, and antibiotics
First aid remedies such as cough syrup, cortisone cream, boil-ese, calamine lotion and topical pain relievers
Spirits such as bourbon, rum, gin, and vodka
Coffee and tea (instant coffee is okay)
Solar battery charger and rechargeable batteries
Standard Batteries
Reading glasses
Paracord
Bags, including large garbage bags as well as smaller zip-close bags
Plastic sheeting
Duct tape
Tie Wraps
Heavy plastic sheets and tarps
Toiletries including toothpaste, dental floss soaps, shampoo (tip: save those small sized toiletries that are provided by hotels and motels)
Condoms
Latex or Nitrile gloves in a variety of sizes
Hard candy
Fishing supplies
Knives of various types including fixed blades, kitchen knives, and box cutters
Condiments and Spices
Paperback books on a variety of subjects
Tobacco and cigarette rolling supplies
Amusements such as playing cards, crossword puzzle books, Sudoku
Pencils & paper
Pepper spray
Garden seeds
Flashlights
Vinegar and baking soda to use in DIY cleaning supplies
Empty spray bottles and squirt bottles
Hand pumps for both air and liquids
Mylar blankets and tents
Hand warmers
Sewing and mending supplies
Knitting or crochet needles and yarn
One thing you will notice that I have not included firearms or ammo and for good reason. In a post-collapse society, you might not know your barter partners well and may run the risk that they will use these items against you so that they can steal the rest of your stuff. One person’s opinion, anyway.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -5
Follow up advise and re-considerations
Over the past couple of months I have had to do some reconsidering of the 9mm automatic vs the 357 revolver. Also, it seems the prices have gone up in the past couple years, and you will need to budget an extra $100, unless you were just real fortunate, as I was, in finding good quality low cost firearms.
One of the biggest re-considerations I had to make is in the area of economics and reliability. Or economics of reliability. While at the low end, where I live, a revolver is likely to cost about $100 more than an automatic, shooting a dozen rounds of a particular ammo through it is sufficient to say it is reliable. Shooting 4 dozen rounds of a particular ammo through an automatic is also sufficient, if it never jams once. I recently came across a troublesome gun and had to shoot off about 3 dozen rounds in the process of troubleshooting it and repairing it, and will now need to shoot 5 to 7 dozen rounds through it to prove its reliability. That is personal defense ammo, not practice ammo, so it will cost upwards of $70 to insure this firearm is reliable.
Secondly, the revolver is much easier to clean. No disassemble, just brush it out and oil it up. Most automatics require disassemble for cleaning. To a former military man as myself, this is second nature. Not to most people. Hence, the revolver is simpler to use and maintain.
Between those two considerations, I now must favor the 357 for anyone who wouldn't normally have a gun but needs one now in these increasingly dangerous times. Sure, it won't have the firepower and it isn't really a good carry gun, but if those are what you want, they come with a much higher budget. These article are all about the minimalist gun in the home.
The remainder of this article, while it may be of interest to others, is mainly aimed at new owners of 357 revolvers.
Over the past couple of years, there have been some improvements in ammo. But to understand these improvements, you must first understand the relationships in energy, recoil, and shock. As those things are somewhat beyond the scope of this article, I will try to give a very, very sketchy and brief overview of them.
If you want to skip this part, my former advise, of making a decision on a personal defense ammo that is within your budget and sticking with it, is still good. But if you are thinking about a more effective line of ammo, here is a quick overview of the considerations.
More velocity and more bullet weight (measured in grains) makes more effective ammo. But increasing both will increase recoil dramatically. Increasing velocity while maintaining same bullet weight increases effectiveness while increasing recoil proportionately. But too much velocity (or too little, for that matter) means the bullet is more likely to pass right through the bad guy and take a lot of its energy with it. Thus modern defense ammunitions use an "engineered" bullet that is almost guaranteed to expand to 40% or more over its original size, to insure it delivers maximum shock almost immediately on impact.
Now there is no combination that performs best in every situation, and no ammo that is guaranteed to perform the best, so you may have to do some reasoning for yourself. How much recoil can you handle? If you can handle 357 ammo, great. But that puts you in about 20% of the population. For the other 80% of us, after practicing with standard 38+P practice ammo (see note1) for a while, make a decision, can you handle twice the recoil? If so, there are some light 357 loads that you might want to try. (See Note2) If not, go with a good 38+P personal defense ammo. Hitting the target is much more important than what you shoot at it.
There are two tests to see if you are proficient at using your weapon and not going overboard on hot ammunition.
Test number one I call Load, Roll and Shoot. In this simple test, load 4 or 5 rounds and leave one or two empty chambers. Without looking at the weapon, roll the cylinder and close it, so you aren't sure where the empty chambers are. While shooting, if the barrel jerks (usually down) when you click on an empty chamber, you are flinching as you shoot.
A second and more complex test, for proficiency, is to see if you can fire 5 bullets into a 5 inch circle at 5 yards in 5 seconds. This is a scaled down version of a test created by a guy named Richard Mann. I read his article in a gun magazine. The test is a good one. He developed it for really well trained shooters drawing a subcompact pistol from a concealed holster. Here, I recommend it, without the drawing from concealed holster and stuff, as a yardstick just to see if you can consider yourself basically proficient on your weapon.
NOTE1: For practice ammo, I use "Winchester White Box," sold under the name "USA" and I use JHP's, just because they are easy to find around here. They cost about $20 for a box of 50. Because of the cost and the light recoil, this is what you should be firing most of the time. This is also a reasonably effective defense round, should you decide to just go with one and only one type of ammo. (Remember, this article is for those on a budget.)
NOTE2: The following types of ammo should produce a recoil somewhere about halfway between a 38+P and fully loaded 357 round. They should each be about 50% more effective than what I used as my standard practice ammo. I did a calculation (no particular units, just comparison) on what I expect the recoil to be for each of them, using the manufactures specifications. For reference, I added practice ammo and full load 357 ammo afterwards.
Remington Golden Saber recoil=153 This is a fairly easy to find ammo
Winchester PDX1 Defender recoil=166
Buffalo Bore 38+P HeavyLoad recoil=157 This ammo can be used in a 38, but I don't recommend it due to the excessive stress it would put on the weapon. It is also hard to find, unless you order it.
Practice ammo (Winchester White Box) recoil=119
Full Load 357 ammo ranges from about 180 to around 200.
Over the past couple of months I have had to do some reconsidering of the 9mm automatic vs the 357 revolver. Also, it seems the prices have gone up in the past couple years, and you will need to budget an extra $100, unless you were just real fortunate, as I was, in finding good quality low cost firearms.
One of the biggest re-considerations I had to make is in the area of economics and reliability. Or economics of reliability. While at the low end, where I live, a revolver is likely to cost about $100 more than an automatic, shooting a dozen rounds of a particular ammo through it is sufficient to say it is reliable. Shooting 4 dozen rounds of a particular ammo through an automatic is also sufficient, if it never jams once. I recently came across a troublesome gun and had to shoot off about 3 dozen rounds in the process of troubleshooting it and repairing it, and will now need to shoot 5 to 7 dozen rounds through it to prove its reliability. That is personal defense ammo, not practice ammo, so it will cost upwards of $70 to insure this firearm is reliable.
Secondly, the revolver is much easier to clean. No disassemble, just brush it out and oil it up. Most automatics require disassemble for cleaning. To a former military man as myself, this is second nature. Not to most people. Hence, the revolver is simpler to use and maintain.
Between those two considerations, I now must favor the 357 for anyone who wouldn't normally have a gun but needs one now in these increasingly dangerous times. Sure, it won't have the firepower and it isn't really a good carry gun, but if those are what you want, they come with a much higher budget. These article are all about the minimalist gun in the home.
The remainder of this article, while it may be of interest to others, is mainly aimed at new owners of 357 revolvers.
Over the past couple of years, there have been some improvements in ammo. But to understand these improvements, you must first understand the relationships in energy, recoil, and shock. As those things are somewhat beyond the scope of this article, I will try to give a very, very sketchy and brief overview of them.
If you want to skip this part, my former advise, of making a decision on a personal defense ammo that is within your budget and sticking with it, is still good. But if you are thinking about a more effective line of ammo, here is a quick overview of the considerations.
More velocity and more bullet weight (measured in grains) makes more effective ammo. But increasing both will increase recoil dramatically. Increasing velocity while maintaining same bullet weight increases effectiveness while increasing recoil proportionately. But too much velocity (or too little, for that matter) means the bullet is more likely to pass right through the bad guy and take a lot of its energy with it. Thus modern defense ammunitions use an "engineered" bullet that is almost guaranteed to expand to 40% or more over its original size, to insure it delivers maximum shock almost immediately on impact.
Now there is no combination that performs best in every situation, and no ammo that is guaranteed to perform the best, so you may have to do some reasoning for yourself. How much recoil can you handle? If you can handle 357 ammo, great. But that puts you in about 20% of the population. For the other 80% of us, after practicing with standard 38+P practice ammo (see note1) for a while, make a decision, can you handle twice the recoil? If so, there are some light 357 loads that you might want to try. (See Note2) If not, go with a good 38+P personal defense ammo. Hitting the target is much more important than what you shoot at it.
There are two tests to see if you are proficient at using your weapon and not going overboard on hot ammunition.
Test number one I call Load, Roll and Shoot. In this simple test, load 4 or 5 rounds and leave one or two empty chambers. Without looking at the weapon, roll the cylinder and close it, so you aren't sure where the empty chambers are. While shooting, if the barrel jerks (usually down) when you click on an empty chamber, you are flinching as you shoot.
A second and more complex test, for proficiency, is to see if you can fire 5 bullets into a 5 inch circle at 5 yards in 5 seconds. This is a scaled down version of a test created by a guy named Richard Mann. I read his article in a gun magazine. The test is a good one. He developed it for really well trained shooters drawing a subcompact pistol from a concealed holster. Here, I recommend it, without the drawing from concealed holster and stuff, as a yardstick just to see if you can consider yourself basically proficient on your weapon.
NOTE1: For practice ammo, I use "Winchester White Box," sold under the name "USA" and I use JHP's, just because they are easy to find around here. They cost about $20 for a box of 50. Because of the cost and the light recoil, this is what you should be firing most of the time. This is also a reasonably effective defense round, should you decide to just go with one and only one type of ammo. (Remember, this article is for those on a budget.)
NOTE2: The following types of ammo should produce a recoil somewhere about halfway between a 38+P and fully loaded 357 round. They should each be about 50% more effective than what I used as my standard practice ammo. I did a calculation (no particular units, just comparison) on what I expect the recoil to be for each of them, using the manufactures specifications. For reference, I added practice ammo and full load 357 ammo afterwards.
Remington Golden Saber recoil=153 This is a fairly easy to find ammo
Winchester PDX1 Defender recoil=166
Buffalo Bore 38+P HeavyLoad recoil=157 This ammo can be used in a 38, but I don't recommend it due to the excessive stress it would put on the weapon. It is also hard to find, unless you order it.
Practice ammo (Winchester White Box) recoil=119
Full Load 357 ammo ranges from about 180 to around 200.
Monday, May 21, 2012
Oddsmaker's Outlook
So, Europe is looking like a slow motion train wreck. The economic outlook on the continent as a whole is slowly growing dimmer, as half dozen of the weaker countries reject austerity measures. They have declared they don't want to live within their means and the stronger countries are slowly getting weary of carrying their dead weight. This is a harbinger of the prophesy found in Daniel ch 2.
While the true "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" will not ride until after the Rapture (see note), foreshadowing events of their arrival seem certain to arrive before the Rapture, and very likely in the next couple of years. I said before that I would post a forecast of some of the disasters that might befall this world, and some details about them. So here are some odds, with short explanations of each type of event.
Currently Barrak Obama has about a 40% chance of being reelected. There is better than a 50-50 chance that this would be followed by the Executive Branch of our government imposing draconian measure to stifle free speech and press, an immediate move to embrace Islam and persecute Christians, financial chaos, and movement towards a police state. These items will be simultaneous to an uprising among various factions of the citizens. Black "support groups" (such as the "New Black Panthers." Self serving parasites, in reality, using "Black Liberation" as an excuse for their dastardly plans) demanding a free lunch and an end to accountability for criminal actions. Socialists (unions), anarchists, drug gangs (that is pretty much all major gangs today), and busy-body liberals (like the "occupy" movements) will all rise up trying to get their slice of the pie. Until it all comes crashing down.
In 2014 and beyond, there is about a 10% chance a weather related phenomenon (like el Nino) will create havoc in the agricultural world and cause world wide famine. We are on the verge of that today, resulting from the weather disruptions of 2011. And even without some disaster, wheat has doubled in 7 years and because of the droughts last year cattle are up 30% this year, with no sign of any relief anywhere.
There is an ever increasing chance of pandemic. This is because of transportation, the over use of antibiotics (giving rise to germs that don't respond to antibiotic treatment) and because of the introduction of various species into areas of the world where they had not been before. Note that this pre-rapture pandemic will be of an ordinary nature, and normal measures taken by individuals and communities will be somewhat effective against it.
Each of the next 3 years, there is about a 3% chance that a major solar flare will impact earth, killing a major electrical power grid, and leaving millions of people without electrical power for weeks or even months.
There is a very likely chance that as the money flees European banks (this money flight is happening now, in slow motion) for the "safety" of eastern or US banks, the European Banking system, and indeed, the entire European Union may collapse into chaos. (again, this will be in accord with Daniel ch2) This may happen within the next year, and indeed, I'll be surprised if they last until Christmas. If this follows the pattern many of us see in prophesy, the collapse will lead to the rise of a dictator that will bring order, by and Iron Fisted rule, to the European continent.
In each of the above scenarios, the Islamists will almost certainly rise up against Christendom, attacking governments, churches, civil infrastructure, and anybody who tells the truth about them. They will attempt to take advantage of a weak moment in history to bring in the new Caliphate and summon the 12th Imam (our Antichrist) to rule the world for their moon god (called Allah).
In each of the next several years, the odds the Rapture will occur in any particular year will rise, starting at about 4% for next year and increasing to about 10% per year by 2020. While no man knows the day or the hour (or even the year), the season is upon us, and the Bible gives unmistakable signs that it is to happen soon.
NOTE: For years I struggle with the question of whether Revelation 4:1 represents the Rapture of The Church and that ALL events of chapters 5, 6, and 7 occur after the Rapture. Until recently, I was not completely certain, and searched the Scriptures, other writings, and looked into the original language wording of some of those passages. Now I am certain the actual events described in those chapters will occur after the Rapture, however, I am also convinced there will be forerunners, a foreshadowing of those events, in the years leading up to the Rapture.
While the true "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" will not ride until after the Rapture (see note), foreshadowing events of their arrival seem certain to arrive before the Rapture, and very likely in the next couple of years. I said before that I would post a forecast of some of the disasters that might befall this world, and some details about them. So here are some odds, with short explanations of each type of event.
Currently Barrak Obama has about a 40% chance of being reelected. There is better than a 50-50 chance that this would be followed by the Executive Branch of our government imposing draconian measure to stifle free speech and press, an immediate move to embrace Islam and persecute Christians, financial chaos, and movement towards a police state. These items will be simultaneous to an uprising among various factions of the citizens. Black "support groups" (such as the "New Black Panthers." Self serving parasites, in reality, using "Black Liberation" as an excuse for their dastardly plans) demanding a free lunch and an end to accountability for criminal actions. Socialists (unions), anarchists, drug gangs (that is pretty much all major gangs today), and busy-body liberals (like the "occupy" movements) will all rise up trying to get their slice of the pie. Until it all comes crashing down.
In 2014 and beyond, there is about a 10% chance a weather related phenomenon (like el Nino) will create havoc in the agricultural world and cause world wide famine. We are on the verge of that today, resulting from the weather disruptions of 2011. And even without some disaster, wheat has doubled in 7 years and because of the droughts last year cattle are up 30% this year, with no sign of any relief anywhere.
There is an ever increasing chance of pandemic. This is because of transportation, the over use of antibiotics (giving rise to germs that don't respond to antibiotic treatment) and because of the introduction of various species into areas of the world where they had not been before. Note that this pre-rapture pandemic will be of an ordinary nature, and normal measures taken by individuals and communities will be somewhat effective against it.
Each of the next 3 years, there is about a 3% chance that a major solar flare will impact earth, killing a major electrical power grid, and leaving millions of people without electrical power for weeks or even months.
There is a very likely chance that as the money flees European banks (this money flight is happening now, in slow motion) for the "safety" of eastern or US banks, the European Banking system, and indeed, the entire European Union may collapse into chaos. (again, this will be in accord with Daniel ch2) This may happen within the next year, and indeed, I'll be surprised if they last until Christmas. If this follows the pattern many of us see in prophesy, the collapse will lead to the rise of a dictator that will bring order, by and Iron Fisted rule, to the European continent.
In each of the above scenarios, the Islamists will almost certainly rise up against Christendom, attacking governments, churches, civil infrastructure, and anybody who tells the truth about them. They will attempt to take advantage of a weak moment in history to bring in the new Caliphate and summon the 12th Imam (our Antichrist) to rule the world for their moon god (called Allah).
In each of the next several years, the odds the Rapture will occur in any particular year will rise, starting at about 4% for next year and increasing to about 10% per year by 2020. While no man knows the day or the hour (or even the year), the season is upon us, and the Bible gives unmistakable signs that it is to happen soon.
NOTE: For years I struggle with the question of whether Revelation 4:1 represents the Rapture of The Church and that ALL events of chapters 5, 6, and 7 occur after the Rapture. Until recently, I was not completely certain, and searched the Scriptures, other writings, and looked into the original language wording of some of those passages. Now I am certain the actual events described in those chapters will occur after the Rapture, however, I am also convinced there will be forerunners, a foreshadowing of those events, in the years leading up to the Rapture.
Monday, May 07, 2012
The Coming Disaster - part-1
Will a world wide disaster destroy civilization? Or even a regional disaster destroy our nation? Will the end of the world come next December? Or TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it)? This is the first of a small series of articles I intend to write on the subject.
The number of people preparing for TEOTWAWKI has risen dramatically in the past couple years, rivaling the Y2K scare. "Preppers" has become a regular show on TV in the past year, and even some of the warehouse stores are catering to the survivalist crowd.
A couple years ago, I made a general forecast of what disasters might befall this world, and came out with about 7% chance of some world changing event occurring in the following 12 months. I had intended to update that number the following year, but in truth there wasn't much change the year after, and it slipped my mind. Things have changed somewhat now, and I will make a similar forecast in the near future, but with a little more detail than the last one. But that doesn't mean I am not preparing. But I am not preparing for TEOTWAWKI. Those people are preparing for the end of the road. I am simply preparing for any sort of bump in the road.
God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).
A couple days ago, the most important monthly economic factor came out. The monthly payroll report on how many jobs have been gained or lost in several areas of the economy. I look mostly at private sector jobs, and at manufacturing. This month, private sector added 130,000 after adding 166,000 last month. To break even, we need 200,000 each month, so this basically erased the gains we had made in some of the preceding months. In manufacturing, we need 20,000 a month to call it good news, and this month only got 16,000. With the exception of a few months here and there, when we buoyed up, the US and even the world economy have been slowly sinking. Oh, the numbers can be made to look good, especially for short periods of time, but the reality is that a few people at the top are getting richer, and most of us at the bottom are getting poorer. Some of it is a "great conspiracy" against us, but most of it is our own doing.
We the people spent, years ago, the money we need now, and we continue to spend more than we can afford. When I tell people what they actually need to do to get their financial house in order, they look at me like I am crazy and tell me "they deserve better." Well, maybe they do, but things are not getting any better, and in not too distant a future, their choices will be taken away from them. Still, the US economy is one of the most resilient in the world, with many layers of security and multiple safety nets and other safety mechanisms, so it is not likely to completely crash anytime soon. But in other places in the world, economic chaos is just around the corner.
Europe has likely already passed the tipping point, and there will be no rescue from a slow slide into disaster. Greece has already defaulted once, and may again. Spain, Portugal, Italy and possibly France may default sometime in the next couple of years. While a wholesale run on the banks is unlikely in Europe, a couple of small scale runs have already happened, removing more than a quarter of the deposits from banks in Greece, for instance. A repeat of that will likely happen in other countries, and each time it happens, it will require another bailout.
France and Greece just had elections. The people in those countries, asked to try to live within their means responded with a hearty "Hell No! Give us our freebies, consequences be damned!" They through out the governments that were trying to help them, and elected socialists. Things are not going to get better in Europe. Every time the Central Banks try to drag them back from the brink, it is harder to do, and has less of a lasting effect. As the situation worsens, one country after another will default on their debts, as Greece did, and people will pull their money out of that nation's banks ahead of such defaults. Where that money will go, I don't know.
A couple years ago, I made a general forecast of what disasters might befall this world, and came out with about 7% chance of some world changing event occurring in the following 12 months. I had intended to update that number the following year, but in truth there wasn't much change the year after, and it slipped my mind. Things have changed somewhat now, and I will make a similar forecast in the near future, but with a little more detail than the last one. But that doesn't mean I am not preparing. But I am not preparing for TEOTWAWKI. Those people are preparing for the end of the road. I am simply preparing for any sort of bump in the road.
God told the Church that He would spare them from the last hour of tribulation (and in truth, the idea that someone can prepare for that is laughable). But history shows that God will not spare His people from the little tribulations that occur along the way. In the past, there have been economic disasters, weather disasters, volcanoes, earthquakes, wars, famines, pandemics, and pestilences. In many cases, Christians (and Jews) did better than others, and in a few cases they fared worse. In Proverbs 6, the Bible tells us to "consider the ant" and in Luke 25:32-38 Jesus told His disciples that after He departed from them, to keep a sword and a purse (a weapon and money).
A couple days ago, the most important monthly economic factor came out. The monthly payroll report on how many jobs have been gained or lost in several areas of the economy. I look mostly at private sector jobs, and at manufacturing. This month, private sector added 130,000 after adding 166,000 last month. To break even, we need 200,000 each month, so this basically erased the gains we had made in some of the preceding months. In manufacturing, we need 20,000 a month to call it good news, and this month only got 16,000. With the exception of a few months here and there, when we buoyed up, the US and even the world economy have been slowly sinking. Oh, the numbers can be made to look good, especially for short periods of time, but the reality is that a few people at the top are getting richer, and most of us at the bottom are getting poorer. Some of it is a "great conspiracy" against us, but most of it is our own doing.
We the people spent, years ago, the money we need now, and we continue to spend more than we can afford. When I tell people what they actually need to do to get their financial house in order, they look at me like I am crazy and tell me "they deserve better." Well, maybe they do, but things are not getting any better, and in not too distant a future, their choices will be taken away from them. Still, the US economy is one of the most resilient in the world, with many layers of security and multiple safety nets and other safety mechanisms, so it is not likely to completely crash anytime soon. But in other places in the world, economic chaos is just around the corner.
Europe has likely already passed the tipping point, and there will be no rescue from a slow slide into disaster. Greece has already defaulted once, and may again. Spain, Portugal, Italy and possibly France may default sometime in the next couple of years. While a wholesale run on the banks is unlikely in Europe, a couple of small scale runs have already happened, removing more than a quarter of the deposits from banks in Greece, for instance. A repeat of that will likely happen in other countries, and each time it happens, it will require another bailout.
France and Greece just had elections. The people in those countries, asked to try to live within their means responded with a hearty "Hell No! Give us our freebies, consequences be damned!" They through out the governments that were trying to help them, and elected socialists. Things are not going to get better in Europe. Every time the Central Banks try to drag them back from the brink, it is harder to do, and has less of a lasting effect. As the situation worsens, one country after another will default on their debts, as Greece did, and people will pull their money out of that nation's banks ahead of such defaults. Where that money will go, I don't know.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -4
Shotguns and Rifles
First, Shotguns
Some people will wonder why I wrote my first three articles almost entirely on handguns. What about using a shotgun for home defense? Well, mostly, I don't have much experience with shotguns, though I have some experience with rifles.
There are some things I do understand fairly well though, and I will go over them in this article.
Pro's and Con's
As a home defense weapon, the shotgun has some advantages, and some disadvantages.
In general shotgun more effective than a handgun, from 10ft up to, maybe, 100 feet. Closer than 10 feet, there is too much chance of the invader getting a hand on the barrel, which because of its length, makes a good handle for the bad guy to control the weapon's aim. Beyond about 100 feet, the shot tends to lose too much energy, and spread out too much. (And that is for a 12 gauge, for smaller shotguns, the distance is less, for a 410, it is about 60 feet.).
It takes about as much familiarization training, but only about half as much range time to be proficient with a shotgun. But, since most people think all you have to do is point and shoot, training tends to get even more neglected than it does with a handgun.
Ammo.
Use buckshot and buckshot only.
Oh, yes, I have heard it all. Rock salt. Bird Shot. Dimes. Slugs. The first three are too lite to be effective, and the last one is too hard to aim. For home defense use buckshot, and buckshot only. Pretty much any buckshot will do, though I prefer #4, since you get more pellets, and they are just heavy enough to do the job. You will want the hottest and heaviest load your gun will take (if you have a lightweight gun) and that you can handle (if you are not too big, yourself).
Now, if will you need to deal with snakes, small animals, game animals, you will need different loads. The lightest birdshot load (commonly used for trap and skeet shooting, aka clay pigeons) will deal with even a big snake. And from twice as far as the best snakeshot load in a handgun.
Training
Just as with a hand gun, you need to handle this weapon every three days for a couple months to insure you are familiar with its operation and to get accustomed to the weight of it in your hands. You will need to make at least two trips to the range, to get accustomed to aiming it, and the recoil it creates, when fired.
Storage
Just as with a handgun, you will need a locked container or rack to store it. Everything else I said about handgun safety, prove if it is loaded or not, do not believe in trigger locks, store in a safe, etc, all apply to a shotgun.
Rifles
Rifles are generally used for long distances and/or game bigger than a human. They are generally not used for home defense, though they can be. They have some of the same problems as a shotgun, requiring a larger storage container and having the problem that a bad guy within 10 feet has a possibility of getting an hand on the barrel. In addition, walls, with the exception of brick, offer little resistance to rifle bullets. Therefore bullets, even after passing through the bad guy, will likely penetrate the outside wall of the house.
Outdoors, things are different. If you have to defend a farm or ranch, or if you are hunting any kind of game, a rifle is definitely a good weapon to have. There is simply too much variety for me to cover everything in this area, so to learn more about rifles and rifle cartridges, I suggest starting with the following readings.
Rifle Cartridges - Reader's Choice
Bullet Guide 1
Rifle Cartridges
First, Shotguns
Some people will wonder why I wrote my first three articles almost entirely on handguns. What about using a shotgun for home defense? Well, mostly, I don't have much experience with shotguns, though I have some experience with rifles.
There are some things I do understand fairly well though, and I will go over them in this article.
Pro's and Con's
As a home defense weapon, the shotgun has some advantages, and some disadvantages.
In general shotgun more effective than a handgun, from 10ft up to, maybe, 100 feet. Closer than 10 feet, there is too much chance of the invader getting a hand on the barrel, which because of its length, makes a good handle for the bad guy to control the weapon's aim. Beyond about 100 feet, the shot tends to lose too much energy, and spread out too much. (And that is for a 12 gauge, for smaller shotguns, the distance is less, for a 410, it is about 60 feet.).
It takes about as much familiarization training, but only about half as much range time to be proficient with a shotgun. But, since most people think all you have to do is point and shoot, training tends to get even more neglected than it does with a handgun.
Ammo.
Use buckshot and buckshot only.
Oh, yes, I have heard it all. Rock salt. Bird Shot. Dimes. Slugs. The first three are too lite to be effective, and the last one is too hard to aim. For home defense use buckshot, and buckshot only. Pretty much any buckshot will do, though I prefer #4, since you get more pellets, and they are just heavy enough to do the job. You will want the hottest and heaviest load your gun will take (if you have a lightweight gun) and that you can handle (if you are not too big, yourself).
Now, if will you need to deal with snakes, small animals, game animals, you will need different loads. The lightest birdshot load (commonly used for trap and skeet shooting, aka clay pigeons) will deal with even a big snake. And from twice as far as the best snakeshot load in a handgun.
Training
Just as with a hand gun, you need to handle this weapon every three days for a couple months to insure you are familiar with its operation and to get accustomed to the weight of it in your hands. You will need to make at least two trips to the range, to get accustomed to aiming it, and the recoil it creates, when fired.
Storage
Just as with a handgun, you will need a locked container or rack to store it. Everything else I said about handgun safety, prove if it is loaded or not, do not believe in trigger locks, store in a safe, etc, all apply to a shotgun.
Rifles
Rifles are generally used for long distances and/or game bigger than a human. They are generally not used for home defense, though they can be. They have some of the same problems as a shotgun, requiring a larger storage container and having the problem that a bad guy within 10 feet has a possibility of getting an hand on the barrel. In addition, walls, with the exception of brick, offer little resistance to rifle bullets. Therefore bullets, even after passing through the bad guy, will likely penetrate the outside wall of the house.
Outdoors, things are different. If you have to defend a farm or ranch, or if you are hunting any kind of game, a rifle is definitely a good weapon to have. There is simply too much variety for me to cover everything in this area, so to learn more about rifles and rifle cartridges, I suggest starting with the following readings.
Rifle Cartridges - Reader's Choice
Bullet Guide 1
Rifle Cartridges
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -3
Training and Storage and Carry
One of the most overlooked and a very important aspect of becoming armed is training. If you don't hit the bad guy, you generally won't stop the bad guy. Training is also important for safety. Each and every lesson, The First Step in picking up or handling a weapon is to determine if it is loaded.
I recommend a person new to shooting handle their weapon about once every 3 days for a month or so. Check to see if it is loaded, and look at how each of the components function. If you haven't already had some experience with guns, have someone you trust give you lessons. On an automatic, pick up and hold the weapon and operate the safety at least 300 times in the first few months you own it. Make it a habit to know what position the safety is in.
How you hold and grip the weapon is extremely important. Your finger should never be on the trigger, unless you are ready to shoot. Get in the habit of picking up the weapon with your finger along the side of the frame. Get in the habit of holding it with both hands. It takes about 300 repetitions to build a habit, so if you pick up and hold your weapon 5 times every 3 days, that will be about 300 times in about two months.
I also recommend you do not chamber a round in an auto, until you have taken it to the range at least once. Also, any round you chamber and then remove from the chamber is no longer fit to be considered for defense, but should be taken to the range next time you go and practice. Repeatedly chambering the same round will damage it. If you do not know where some good ranges are, this site might provide an answer.
http://www.usacarry.com/directory/category/gun-ranges/
Most ranges charge about $15 per person to shoot, and about $1 per target. There is a lot of variation from one range to another, so the price could be a little less, or could be double.
Your first goals at the range are to shoot enough ammo to insure the weapon works flawlessly, and enough to get the feel of the weapon's recoil. If you can choose your practice distance, practice at the longest distance you might shoot inside your house.
You don't have to be the most accurate shot in the world, but you should be able to hit the upper half of a man's chest (about an 8 inch target) reliably. Plan on shooting 50 to 100 rounds each time you go to the range.
A word here about the 357. Great gun, but the 357 personal defense ammo has a LOT of recoil, and I have seen 220 pound men in good physical shape have trouble with it. Also, the 357 ammo uses a slightly harder primer, so if you choose that ammo, you need to fire at least 50 to insure the weapon functions reliably. All in all, unless you are really serious, I don't recommend the 357 magnum ammo, even though I recommend the 357 gun.
On your second or third trips to the range, you may want to practice double tap (shooting the same target two or three times) and multiple engagements. The thing you want to prevent is seizing up even for a moment, or stopping to see the effect, after the first shot.
How much or how often you need to practice does depend on how much responsibility you have. Will your family, or even you neighbors be depending on you? If so, that means more training is in order.
SnapCaps are dummy bullets, designed to be placed in a gun while dry fired, or stacked with other ammo in a magazine, so as to simulate a misfire. Their primary use is to be used to prevent damage to the weapon when the weapon is dry fired during practice, but as so many weapons now (be certain to consult the manufacture's paperwork on this matter) can be dry fired without damage, the main use I have seen for these is to add one at random to the ammo the shooter is firing. This does two things. It reveals if the shooter is "flinching" when they pull the trigger (which will kill accuracy) and it allows the shooter to practice what to do in the case of a misfire.
Storage
Along with the importance of safety when handling a weapon is safe and secure storage. About the last thing you want is for that weapon to be used, in someone else's hand, to harm someone. Since 87% of burglaries happen when no one is home (see note below), if you own a gun, you simply must own a safe of some sort. The particular type or design isn't important, with one notable exception, and a couple of things that some people simply overlook.
First and foremost, do not use one of the small lock boxes that are designed expressly to keep documents safe in a fire. Besides the fact that these safes are not hard to pry open, they use an insulation that is impregnated with water, and tend to build up humidity inside.
Next most important is that the safe must be easy for you to open and difficult for a thief to either open or take with him. For this reason, I do not recommend trigger locks (gun can be taken somewhere and the lock removed), and I do not recommend dial locks (too hard to operate at night). And the safe (unless it is extraordinarily heavy) needs to be nailed or screwed down to prevent a thief from simply walking away with it. I also am not convinced of the reliability of biometric locks.
There are many good safes on the market, and many people have one already have one, so I won't go into much detail, but there are a couple things to remember. A safe loses about half its security if the thief already knows it is there when he enters a home, and many thieves have already been in the home they intend to steal from, though maybe no further inside than the front room (that magazine salesman who spent 20 minutes pitching to you last month, or that alarm company representative trying to tell you how bad crime is getting). So your safe shouldn't be visible to the casual visitor. Also, you should be able to open it and remove your gun quietly in the night. This means using sound deadening material on the safe walls and practicing a couple of times.
Carrying a weapon
While the 2nd Amendment guarantees the right to possess and carry weapons, the governments in most cities and several states do not recognize the Constitution, and therefore it is imperative you learn the laws concerning carrying and even transporting a weapon in your location.
One good thing, though, has come from the fight between those who insist on following the Constitution and those who insist on depriving people of their liberty, and that is gun safety courses, usually in connection with getting a concealed carry permit. The most important things these courses teach are when to shoot, or not shoot, and the laws concerning deadly force in your location.
As I intend this article for those who have little or no prior training in firearms, I won't go into how to clear your house once an intruder has been inside. My primary advice is that if you don't have to, don't. Arm yourself, call 911, and then back off into a concealed position and wait it out. If the intruder grabs your TV and runs, let them go. A firearm is to defend your life, and generally not to defend your property.
While accidental shootings are fairly rare (see note below), absolute insistence on safety as a part of training is important, as zero is the only acceptable number of accidental shootings. That is why I stress the importance of verifying whether it is loaded when you pick it up, and locking it up when not needed.
Note: I ran across a good article discussing the myths promoted by the anti gun lobby. The
quotes below are from page 2 of that article.
"Then there is the argument that more private gun ownership will lead to more accidents because the average citizen isn’t sufficiently trained to use a weapon defensively. While gun accidents do occur, the Cato study indicates that they are the most overstated risks. There were 535 accidental firearms deaths in 2006 within a population of almost 300 million people. Although every lost life is tragic, the proportion is not particularly startling.
On the other hand, Newsweek has reported that law-abiding American citizens using guns in self-defense during 2003 shot and killed two and one-half times as many criminals as police did, and with fewer than one-fifth as many incidents as police where an innocent person mistakenly identified as a criminal (2% versus 11%).
Finally, on the subject of public safety, just how well have gun bans worked in other countries? Take the number of home break-ins while residents are present as an indication. In Canada and Britain, both with tough gun-control laws, nearly half of all burglaries occur when residents are present. But in the U.S. where many households are armed, only about 13% happen when someone is home."
One of the most overlooked and a very important aspect of becoming armed is training. If you don't hit the bad guy, you generally won't stop the bad guy. Training is also important for safety. Each and every lesson, The First Step in picking up or handling a weapon is to determine if it is loaded.
I recommend a person new to shooting handle their weapon about once every 3 days for a month or so. Check to see if it is loaded, and look at how each of the components function. If you haven't already had some experience with guns, have someone you trust give you lessons. On an automatic, pick up and hold the weapon and operate the safety at least 300 times in the first few months you own it. Make it a habit to know what position the safety is in.
How you hold and grip the weapon is extremely important. Your finger should never be on the trigger, unless you are ready to shoot. Get in the habit of picking up the weapon with your finger along the side of the frame. Get in the habit of holding it with both hands. It takes about 300 repetitions to build a habit, so if you pick up and hold your weapon 5 times every 3 days, that will be about 300 times in about two months.
I also recommend you do not chamber a round in an auto, until you have taken it to the range at least once. Also, any round you chamber and then remove from the chamber is no longer fit to be considered for defense, but should be taken to the range next time you go and practice. Repeatedly chambering the same round will damage it. If you do not know where some good ranges are, this site might provide an answer.
http://www.usacarry.com/directory/category/gun-ranges/
Most ranges charge about $15 per person to shoot, and about $1 per target. There is a lot of variation from one range to another, so the price could be a little less, or could be double.
Your first goals at the range are to shoot enough ammo to insure the weapon works flawlessly, and enough to get the feel of the weapon's recoil. If you can choose your practice distance, practice at the longest distance you might shoot inside your house.
You don't have to be the most accurate shot in the world, but you should be able to hit the upper half of a man's chest (about an 8 inch target) reliably. Plan on shooting 50 to 100 rounds each time you go to the range.
A word here about the 357. Great gun, but the 357 personal defense ammo has a LOT of recoil, and I have seen 220 pound men in good physical shape have trouble with it. Also, the 357 ammo uses a slightly harder primer, so if you choose that ammo, you need to fire at least 50 to insure the weapon functions reliably. All in all, unless you are really serious, I don't recommend the 357 magnum ammo, even though I recommend the 357 gun.
On your second or third trips to the range, you may want to practice double tap (shooting the same target two or three times) and multiple engagements. The thing you want to prevent is seizing up even for a moment, or stopping to see the effect, after the first shot.
How much or how often you need to practice does depend on how much responsibility you have. Will your family, or even you neighbors be depending on you? If so, that means more training is in order.
SnapCaps are dummy bullets, designed to be placed in a gun while dry fired, or stacked with other ammo in a magazine, so as to simulate a misfire. Their primary use is to be used to prevent damage to the weapon when the weapon is dry fired during practice, but as so many weapons now (be certain to consult the manufacture's paperwork on this matter) can be dry fired without damage, the main use I have seen for these is to add one at random to the ammo the shooter is firing. This does two things. It reveals if the shooter is "flinching" when they pull the trigger (which will kill accuracy) and it allows the shooter to practice what to do in the case of a misfire.
Storage
Along with the importance of safety when handling a weapon is safe and secure storage. About the last thing you want is for that weapon to be used, in someone else's hand, to harm someone. Since 87% of burglaries happen when no one is home (see note below), if you own a gun, you simply must own a safe of some sort. The particular type or design isn't important, with one notable exception, and a couple of things that some people simply overlook.
First and foremost, do not use one of the small lock boxes that are designed expressly to keep documents safe in a fire. Besides the fact that these safes are not hard to pry open, they use an insulation that is impregnated with water, and tend to build up humidity inside.
Next most important is that the safe must be easy for you to open and difficult for a thief to either open or take with him. For this reason, I do not recommend trigger locks (gun can be taken somewhere and the lock removed), and I do not recommend dial locks (too hard to operate at night). And the safe (unless it is extraordinarily heavy) needs to be nailed or screwed down to prevent a thief from simply walking away with it. I also am not convinced of the reliability of biometric locks.
There are many good safes on the market, and many people have one already have one, so I won't go into much detail, but there are a couple things to remember. A safe loses about half its security if the thief already knows it is there when he enters a home, and many thieves have already been in the home they intend to steal from, though maybe no further inside than the front room (that magazine salesman who spent 20 minutes pitching to you last month, or that alarm company representative trying to tell you how bad crime is getting). So your safe shouldn't be visible to the casual visitor. Also, you should be able to open it and remove your gun quietly in the night. This means using sound deadening material on the safe walls and practicing a couple of times.
Carrying a weapon
While the 2nd Amendment guarantees the right to possess and carry weapons, the governments in most cities and several states do not recognize the Constitution, and therefore it is imperative you learn the laws concerning carrying and even transporting a weapon in your location.
One good thing, though, has come from the fight between those who insist on following the Constitution and those who insist on depriving people of their liberty, and that is gun safety courses, usually in connection with getting a concealed carry permit. The most important things these courses teach are when to shoot, or not shoot, and the laws concerning deadly force in your location.
As I intend this article for those who have little or no prior training in firearms, I won't go into how to clear your house once an intruder has been inside. My primary advice is that if you don't have to, don't. Arm yourself, call 911, and then back off into a concealed position and wait it out. If the intruder grabs your TV and runs, let them go. A firearm is to defend your life, and generally not to defend your property.
While accidental shootings are fairly rare (see note below), absolute insistence on safety as a part of training is important, as zero is the only acceptable number of accidental shootings. That is why I stress the importance of verifying whether it is loaded when you pick it up, and locking it up when not needed.
Note: I ran across a good article discussing the myths promoted by the anti gun lobby. The
quotes below are from page 2 of that article."Then there is the argument that more private gun ownership will lead to more accidents because the average citizen isn’t sufficiently trained to use a weapon defensively. While gun accidents do occur, the Cato study indicates that they are the most overstated risks. There were 535 accidental firearms deaths in 2006 within a population of almost 300 million people. Although every lost life is tragic, the proportion is not particularly startling.
On the other hand, Newsweek has reported that law-abiding American citizens using guns in self-defense during 2003 shot and killed two and one-half times as many criminals as police did, and with fewer than one-fifth as many incidents as police where an innocent person mistakenly identified as a criminal (2% versus 11%).
Finally, on the subject of public safety, just how well have gun bans worked in other countries? Take the number of home break-ins while residents are present as an indication. In Canada and Britain, both with tough gun-control laws, nearly half of all burglaries occur when residents are present. But in the U.S. where many households are armed, only about 13% happen when someone is home."
Monday, March 19, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -2
Ammunition
There are several basic types of ammunition (ammo) for handguns. In fact, there is so many different kinds of ammo, by so many different manufactures, and each having people who swear by them, that it is a very complicated part of becoming armed. As I spent far too much time researching ammo, this article is designed to cut through all the BS and give the new shooter a basic knowledge of what he needs to feed his (or her) firearm. It should also help cut down the tendency to have a hodgepodge of ammo sitting next to the gun in the home.
For us, they can be divided into four major categories.
1. Practice ammo
2. Personal Defense ammo
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
4. Exotic ammo
Then there are a couple categories for Rifles and Shotguns
5. Various Shotgun Shells
6. Hunting Rifle ammo
I may deal with these in a later article.
1. For practice ammo, cost is the main consideration. Generally many of us think of full metal jacket (FMJ) ammo, but I haven't found cheap FMJ ammo for the 38 or 357. There is also "Metal Case" or "Total Metal Jacket" ammo, as in the "Lawman" series of ammo. This is meant for indoor ranges, or any other range that is concerned with lead from regular ammo.
With the 38 or 357, (or pretty much any gun other than the 9mm for that matter) you will just have to make do with whatever you can find. Typically, Winchester White Box (WWB) 38+P Personal Defense ammo gives you the most for your money. I have seen this in both FMJ and JHP (personal defense), but the JHP is much more common. Generally I can find them in boxes of 50 for about $22. If you can find something in bulk from a well known manufacturer, and can pick up two or three hundred rounds, that would be better. If you decide you are really serious about learning, You could look into buying a case (a case is almost always 10 boxes) of ammo, which would save a few dollars, in the long run.
For the 9mm, it has the advantage of being the choice weapon of the US military, and many police departments. It is also the most popular caliber among all other shooters, all of which is to say a LOT of 9mm ammo is produced. Bulk packages of 100 ($24) and 250 ($59) rounds of 9mm FMJ ammo are commonly found in sporting goods stores and gun supply stores. Since most people (amateurs on a budget) shoot 60 to 100 rounds each time they go to the range, three trips to the range will require about 200 rounds.
2. Personal defense ammo.
By far, the most common form of personal defense ammo is some kind of jacketed hollow point (JHP) ammo, since the (typical or average) effectiveness of JHP ammo is about twice that of FMJ ammo. There are, however at least 20 different kinds of JHP ammo, and because of this, the bulk of my research time (way too much time) on guns and ammunition over the past two years has been investigating the various kinds of ammo, its cost and its effectiveness.
A good rule of thumb is: any good JHP ammo is good ammo, as long as it feeds and shoots reliably in your weapon. Really good ammo is marginally better (maybe 20% more effective) than middle of the road ammo, but might cost twice as much. And once you move beyond the average, there is all sorts of arguments as to what is the "best" personal defense ammo.
Now, a little about the names you will be hearing when reading here, or other places or discussing ammo with others.
For the powder charge, there are basically four levels of powder charge for a 38 or 357.
1. 38 Special - the lightest load.
2. 38 special +P or just 38+P is about 50% more powerful. This has been the most common load for 40 years.
3. 38+P+ somewhat more powerful than +P, but there is no exact standard. Usually about 20% more than +P. While this one will fit in a 38, firing it in a 38 may damage the weapon, therefore it is uncommon and you might never see it.
4. 357 Magnum is about 50% more powerful than 38+P. Since firing it from a 38 would seriously damage the weapon, it is about 1/4 inch longer than the 38 round, and therefore will not fit in the lighter weapon. (I highly recommend you read the section on training before buying 357 magnum ammo)
For the 9mm, the only two loads are standard and +P loads, +P having about 15% more power.
OK, so much for the powder charge, the other half of ammo is the bullet. As I have stated before, the JHP is the central figure here. The whole point of this is that they tend to spread out (expand) when they hit, making a 38 caliber round hit like a 45 caliber round, and tend to carry less energy when exiting out the back side of the target. Now, JHP's of 30 years ago were pretty much untested, and maybe they would expand, or maybe they wouldn't. Today's bullets expand much more reliably.
Bullet weight, measured in grains, is somewhat important, but only in that at the extremes it will reduce the effectiveness. In 38+P loads, 110 to 135 grain is common, and up to 148 grain acceptable. In 357 loads, the weight can rise to 158 grain. In 9mm (whether +P or not), 115 to 125 grain is common, with up to 147 grain acceptable. The heavier bullets perform a little better at longer ranges. Not usually an issue in home defense. Be aware they also kick a little harder.
There are a few good articles on the Web that discuss various personal defense ammo, here is one of the best. Mostly aimed at police or paramilitary, much of this article is not really of interest to the home defense crowd.
Before moving on to other types of ammo, just a few notes on types of ammo and some acronyms you might run across. Presented in somewhat of a logical order.
Historically the 38 Special Winchester USA 125gr +P Jacketed Hollow Point (aka, WWB) was, I think, one of the oldest of the "modern" ammo, some 70 years ago, designed as an upgrade to the rather anemic 38 Special with a solid lead bullet.
Guard Dog rounds are an Expanding Full Metal Jacket round, useful (only) in places where Hollow Point ammo has been declared illegal. Similar to a Jacketed Soft Point, which does basically the same thing.
Hydra-Shok was to be an improvement to standard JHP that would expand faster and further, but it didn't work as well as expected (worked well, just not as well as expected), possibly due to clothing or other barriers between the gun and the skin.
XTP and its cousin DPX are designed to penetrate deeper than standard JHP ammo.
Bonded rounds and "solid copper" rounds (which are still hollow point) removed the tendency for the brass jacket to shed as the bullet passes through a leather jacket.
Hornady Critical Defense added a soft plastic plug in the hollow point dramatically reducing the tendency clog with cloth as it passes through a jacket and then not expand. (Which doesn't happen very often with normal hollow points)
HST stands for Hydra-Shok Two or hi-shok-two and may be replacing the older Hydra-shok. HST's are the super expanding line of ammo. They usually expand to over double their original size. They are newer, and I haven't actually seen any performance tests yet.
All of these are considered top of the line right now, but it is easy to double the price of the ammo to get only marginal improvement: Remington Golden Saber, Speer Gold Dot, Federal HST, Winchester Ranger (PDX1), Hornady TAP/Critical Defense.
All of these rounds work well. Some better under certain circumstances, some better under other. I presented them in order, in which I would rate them, with some reservation, from least to best.
My advise is to find a brand and type you think will be happy with, shoot at least 100 rounds of it (or 20 rounds for a revolver) to insure it will fire reliably, and then stick with it, ignoring all those who will swear by some other ammo.
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
Most calibers of handguns ammo can be gotten with a shot load. Whether called snakeshot, birdshot, or ratshot, it is pretty much the same thing. They use fairly small shot, and because the shot isn't very heavy, it won't penetrate more than an inch or two. That is fine for snakes, or rats, which generally have quite a bit to loose when shot with such a load. If you shoot a bad guy with ratshot, it will only make him mad.
Even when shooting snakes or rats with pistol loads, you have to be aware of its limitations. Standing a pistol shell next to a 20 gauge shotgun shell will provide an immediate contrast in size. Also, the rifling in the barrel, which makes a bullet fly straight, causes the shot load to spread out fast. About an inch or so for every foot. That limits the effective range of a 38 or 9mm shot shell to about 6 feet. Beyond that, most of the shot will miss the snake.
Also, be aware that, while an automatic might eject the shell from a shot-shell, it most certainly not feed them reliably, so don't mix shot and defense loads in any magazine. If you want to mix loads (something only for advanced shooters) that include shot shells, you need a revolver.
Most shot-shells are sold in boxes of ten. You need to shoot at least one or two, and keep the rest. You might want to find someone with the same caliber weapon and split a box.
4. Exotic ammo
There are several varieties of specialty or exotic ammo. I want to touch on a couple of the ones that might, at first, appeal to someone new to personal defense.
Limited Recoil or Controlled Recoil ammo is fairly similar to normal ammo, but with a lighter bullet than standard. In addition to not being very well suited to personal defense, it tends to not cycle an automatic hand gun reliably.
Frangible, prefragmented or safety slugs are made up of fragments basically glued together or in shot capsules that will remain intact until they strike an object, then they act like a shot-shell. Glaser is probably the most recognized name. They tend to be on the light side, 80 - 96 grains, and so may not be reliable in an automatic. In addition, they are less effective than a regular JHP round. Also, they cost $1.50 - $2 each, making it an expensive ammo that may not perform well.
Oddly, at least one manufacture of this kind of exotic ammo names and advertises its ammo in such a way as to make a beginner believe it is more effective than standard ammo. It is not. My best advice is: stay away from exotic ammo.
Something similar to ammo is the Snapcap. Snapcaps are not really ammo but are a training aid, and I'll deal with them under "training"
In Conclusion
You will generally need at least two kinds of ammo. Your practice ammo should be based almost entirely on cost per round. Buy enough for at least three trips to the range. Your primary defense ammo should be a trade off between cost and performance, but at least in the beginning, cost should be the main factor. Shoot at least a box of it through your gun to insure it works reliably in your particular gun. Then begin stocking up on it until your gut says you have enough. You may want to get some shot shells, if you live an an area where snakes or rats (and I mean the 2 pound variety, not mice) are frequent.
There are several basic types of ammunition (ammo) for handguns. In fact, there is so many different kinds of ammo, by so many different manufactures, and each having people who swear by them, that it is a very complicated part of becoming armed. As I spent far too much time researching ammo, this article is designed to cut through all the BS and give the new shooter a basic knowledge of what he needs to feed his (or her) firearm. It should also help cut down the tendency to have a hodgepodge of ammo sitting next to the gun in the home.
For us, they can be divided into four major categories.
1. Practice ammo
2. Personal Defense ammo
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
4. Exotic ammo
Then there are a couple categories for Rifles and Shotguns
5. Various Shotgun Shells
6. Hunting Rifle ammo
I may deal with these in a later article.
1. For practice ammo, cost is the main consideration. Generally many of us think of full metal jacket (FMJ) ammo, but I haven't found cheap FMJ ammo for the 38 or 357. There is also "Metal Case" or "Total Metal Jacket" ammo, as in the "Lawman" series of ammo. This is meant for indoor ranges, or any other range that is concerned with lead from regular ammo.
With the 38 or 357, (or pretty much any gun other than the 9mm for that matter) you will just have to make do with whatever you can find. Typically, Winchester White Box (WWB) 38+P Personal Defense ammo gives you the most for your money. I have seen this in both FMJ and JHP (personal defense), but the JHP is much more common. Generally I can find them in boxes of 50 for about $22. If you can find something in bulk from a well known manufacturer, and can pick up two or three hundred rounds, that would be better. If you decide you are really serious about learning, You could look into buying a case (a case is almost always 10 boxes) of ammo, which would save a few dollars, in the long run.
For the 9mm, it has the advantage of being the choice weapon of the US military, and many police departments. It is also the most popular caliber among all other shooters, all of which is to say a LOT of 9mm ammo is produced. Bulk packages of 100 ($24) and 250 ($59) rounds of 9mm FMJ ammo are commonly found in sporting goods stores and gun supply stores. Since most people (amateurs on a budget) shoot 60 to 100 rounds each time they go to the range, three trips to the range will require about 200 rounds.
2. Personal defense ammo.
By far, the most common form of personal defense ammo is some kind of jacketed hollow point (JHP) ammo, since the (typical or average) effectiveness of JHP ammo is about twice that of FMJ ammo. There are, however at least 20 different kinds of JHP ammo, and because of this, the bulk of my research time (way too much time) on guns and ammunition over the past two years has been investigating the various kinds of ammo, its cost and its effectiveness.
A good rule of thumb is: any good JHP ammo is good ammo, as long as it feeds and shoots reliably in your weapon. Really good ammo is marginally better (maybe 20% more effective) than middle of the road ammo, but might cost twice as much. And once you move beyond the average, there is all sorts of arguments as to what is the "best" personal defense ammo.
Now, a little about the names you will be hearing when reading here, or other places or discussing ammo with others.
For the powder charge, there are basically four levels of powder charge for a 38 or 357.
1. 38 Special - the lightest load.
2. 38 special +P or just 38+P is about 50% more powerful. This has been the most common load for 40 years.
3. 38+P+ somewhat more powerful than +P, but there is no exact standard. Usually about 20% more than +P. While this one will fit in a 38, firing it in a 38 may damage the weapon, therefore it is uncommon and you might never see it.
4. 357 Magnum is about 50% more powerful than 38+P. Since firing it from a 38 would seriously damage the weapon, it is about 1/4 inch longer than the 38 round, and therefore will not fit in the lighter weapon. (I highly recommend you read the section on training before buying 357 magnum ammo)
For the 9mm, the only two loads are standard and +P loads, +P having about 15% more power.
OK, so much for the powder charge, the other half of ammo is the bullet. As I have stated before, the JHP is the central figure here. The whole point of this is that they tend to spread out (expand) when they hit, making a 38 caliber round hit like a 45 caliber round, and tend to carry less energy when exiting out the back side of the target. Now, JHP's of 30 years ago were pretty much untested, and maybe they would expand, or maybe they wouldn't. Today's bullets expand much more reliably.
Bullet weight, measured in grains, is somewhat important, but only in that at the extremes it will reduce the effectiveness. In 38+P loads, 110 to 135 grain is common, and up to 148 grain acceptable. In 357 loads, the weight can rise to 158 grain. In 9mm (whether +P or not), 115 to 125 grain is common, with up to 147 grain acceptable. The heavier bullets perform a little better at longer ranges. Not usually an issue in home defense. Be aware they also kick a little harder.
There are a few good articles on the Web that discuss various personal defense ammo, here is one of the best. Mostly aimed at police or paramilitary, much of this article is not really of interest to the home defense crowd.
Before moving on to other types of ammo, just a few notes on types of ammo and some acronyms you might run across. Presented in somewhat of a logical order.
Historically the 38 Special Winchester USA 125gr +P Jacketed Hollow Point (aka, WWB) was, I think, one of the oldest of the "modern" ammo, some 70 years ago, designed as an upgrade to the rather anemic 38 Special with a solid lead bullet.
Guard Dog rounds are an Expanding Full Metal Jacket round, useful (only) in places where Hollow Point ammo has been declared illegal. Similar to a Jacketed Soft Point, which does basically the same thing.
Hydra-Shok was to be an improvement to standard JHP that would expand faster and further, but it didn't work as well as expected (worked well, just not as well as expected), possibly due to clothing or other barriers between the gun and the skin.
XTP and its cousin DPX are designed to penetrate deeper than standard JHP ammo.
Bonded rounds and "solid copper" rounds (which are still hollow point) removed the tendency for the brass jacket to shed as the bullet passes through a leather jacket.
Hornady Critical Defense added a soft plastic plug in the hollow point dramatically reducing the tendency clog with cloth as it passes through a jacket and then not expand. (Which doesn't happen very often with normal hollow points)
HST stands for Hydra-Shok Two or hi-shok-two and may be replacing the older Hydra-shok. HST's are the super expanding line of ammo. They usually expand to over double their original size. They are newer, and I haven't actually seen any performance tests yet.
All of these are considered top of the line right now, but it is easy to double the price of the ammo to get only marginal improvement: Remington Golden Saber, Speer Gold Dot, Federal HST, Winchester Ranger (PDX1), Hornady TAP/Critical Defense.
All of these rounds work well. Some better under certain circumstances, some better under other. I presented them in order, in which I would rate them, with some reservation, from least to best.
My advise is to find a brand and type you think will be happy with, shoot at least 100 rounds of it (or 20 rounds for a revolver) to insure it will fire reliably, and then stick with it, ignoring all those who will swear by some other ammo.
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
Most calibers of handguns ammo can be gotten with a shot load. Whether called snakeshot, birdshot, or ratshot, it is pretty much the same thing. They use fairly small shot, and because the shot isn't very heavy, it won't penetrate more than an inch or two. That is fine for snakes, or rats, which generally have quite a bit to loose when shot with such a load. If you shoot a bad guy with ratshot, it will only make him mad.
Even when shooting snakes or rats with pistol loads, you have to be aware of its limitations. Standing a pistol shell next to a 20 gauge shotgun shell will provide an immediate contrast in size. Also, the rifling in the barrel, which makes a bullet fly straight, causes the shot load to spread out fast. About an inch or so for every foot. That limits the effective range of a 38 or 9mm shot shell to about 6 feet. Beyond that, most of the shot will miss the snake.
Also, be aware that, while an automatic might eject the shell from a shot-shell, it most certainly not feed them reliably, so don't mix shot and defense loads in any magazine. If you want to mix loads (something only for advanced shooters) that include shot shells, you need a revolver.
Most shot-shells are sold in boxes of ten. You need to shoot at least one or two, and keep the rest. You might want to find someone with the same caliber weapon and split a box.
4. Exotic ammo
There are several varieties of specialty or exotic ammo. I want to touch on a couple of the ones that might, at first, appeal to someone new to personal defense.
Limited Recoil or Controlled Recoil ammo is fairly similar to normal ammo, but with a lighter bullet than standard. In addition to not being very well suited to personal defense, it tends to not cycle an automatic hand gun reliably.
Frangible, prefragmented or safety slugs are made up of fragments basically glued together or in shot capsules that will remain intact until they strike an object, then they act like a shot-shell. Glaser is probably the most recognized name. They tend to be on the light side, 80 - 96 grains, and so may not be reliable in an automatic. In addition, they are less effective than a regular JHP round. Also, they cost $1.50 - $2 each, making it an expensive ammo that may not perform well.
Oddly, at least one manufacture of this kind of exotic ammo names and advertises its ammo in such a way as to make a beginner believe it is more effective than standard ammo. It is not. My best advice is: stay away from exotic ammo.
Something similar to ammo is the Snapcap. Snapcaps are not really ammo but are a training aid, and I'll deal with them under "training"
In Conclusion
You will generally need at least two kinds of ammo. Your practice ammo should be based almost entirely on cost per round. Buy enough for at least three trips to the range. Your primary defense ammo should be a trade off between cost and performance, but at least in the beginning, cost should be the main factor. Shoot at least a box of it through your gun to insure it works reliably in your particular gun. Then begin stocking up on it until your gut says you have enough. You may want to get some shot shells, if you live an an area where snakes or rats (and I mean the 2 pound variety, not mice) are frequent.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -1
Choosing a hand gun
This article is a spinoff from an article I read, telling gun owners what kind of gun NOT to buy for a survival gun. It occurred to me that a great many well meaning, but naive, people might not have a gun at all. While the relative calm of the 19th and 20th centuries made this responsibility less obvious, the days are coming that we need to take this responsibility more seriously. In the fierce days ahead, not having a gun is going to become more and more irresponsible.
Note: Biblical Reference Luke 24:35-38 (Young's Literal Translation)
And he said to them, 'When I sent you without bag, and scrip, and sandals, did ye lack anything?' and they said, 'Nothing.' Then said he to them, 'But, now, he who is having a bag, let him take it up, and in like manner also a scrip; and he who is not having, let him sell his garment, and buy a sword, for I say to you, that yet this that hath been written it behoveth to be fulfilled in me: And with lawless ones he was reckoned, for also the things concerning me have an end.' And they said, 'Sir, lo, here are two swords;' and he said to them, 'It is sufficient.'
The original article that got me thinking on this subject is:
Five Guns Not to Buy as Survival Firearms Monday, April 4, 2011
But becoming responsibly armed is not just a matter of going out and getting a gun. I see it as a process of acquiring the weapon, ammunition, and the know how to use them safely and effectively. This series of articles won't tell you exactly what gun to buy, but will point out factors to narrow the search. You will still need to shop around, look at a lot of different models and see how they fit in your hand.
There are really four or five questions that need to be answered
Question 1 - What is your budget?
For this article, it is assumed you don't have thousands of extra dollars to invest in guns, so most of the focus is on getting effective weapons (and learning how to shoot them) for not too much money. So quite a bit of the following advise is economically driven. Still, you can count on the cost being a few hundred dollars, at best, and it will take about a year, or more, to accomplish what I am writing about.
The following process mirrors, somewhat, what myself and some of the people I know went through over the past few years, so it is mostly a baseline, and you might be able to do better.
As a baseline, a good automatic handgun will cost around $200 or more, and a good revolver will cost around $300 or so. You will be needing at least $100 worth of ammunition and will probably need to spend about $100 or so, on going to the range. If you opt for a concealed carry permit, expect that to cost more than another $100. So the very least you will need to budget is $500, and I recommend budgeting $800 to $1000.
Question 2 - What is your previous experience?
Some of this does depend on just how new you are to shooting. Never shot? Never played with BB guns? You might want to go through a couple of preliminary steps. Have someone you trust show you how to shoot. Mostly, you want them to show you how to handle the weapon, hold it, aim it etc. The correct grip is very important. You can use a borrowed 22 to go to the range for this, just buy a box of "standard velocity" 22 ammo. Or whatever ammo is recommended by whoever loaned you the gun. Ammo in this caliber only costs 3 to 5 cents a round, so a couple hundred rounds is not too hard on the budget.
Safety is always the most important thing, and anyone new to guns must be taught how to know if a gun is loaded, and how the safety works. The first thing you must do, any time you pick up a gun, or if a gun is handed to you, is determine if the gun is loaded. Always consider it loaded until proven otherwise.
Question 3 - Do you have good grip strength?
What kind of a gun you buy will, of a necessity, depend on how much grip strength you have. Automatics are almost always a better choice, as they carry more ammo, and cost less. But you have to have enough grip strength to chamber a round easily. I know at least three people who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic pistol. For those who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic, a revolver (or wheel gun) is the correct gun to buy.
There is also a matter of simplicity. For those who find an automatic too complicated, a revolver may be the answer, though I recommend finishing this article and getting some training on an auto before making that decision.
Question 4 - How big of a gun do you need?
I ask this somewhat rhetorically, as I only recommend a couple of different calibers. (Of course, there is frame size to consider, for those whose hand is either very small or very large. But I am not addressing that, here)
For those who choose an automatic, I recommend a 9mm. If you find a really good deal on a 380, 40S&W, or a 45, you could go with one of those, but ammo will cost more, and in the case of the 380, it isn't as effective a weapon, so more range time will be in order.
For those who need a revolver, my first choice is, without a doubt, the 357. There are a few reasons for this choice. First, it is a very common revolver, firing fairly common ammunition. Second, it can also fire 38+P ammunition, which is, in fact, the most common revolver ammunition. The 357 JHP is one of the most effective handgun cartridges normally available, rivaling, even, the 44 Magnum. The less powerful 38+P is still very effective, and easier to control. It is just about equal to a 9mm cartridge.
Again, if you get a really good deal, a 44 or 38 is acceptable, but will limit your ammunition choices, and your ammunition could be considerably more expensive.
A couple of articles illustrate why I insist that a person not buy an underpowered gun.
One, from Waco TX, is somewhat humorous (note that the first news story contains a factual error, as the man had a collapsed lung, therefore the shot was fairly square, not a "grazing" wound).
Net-News Story
Same story from TV station
Not Nearly So Nice Story don't read the full version of this one unless you have a strong stomach.
The results of shooting someone with a small caliber weapon are unpredictable. In all likelihood, the results will not be immediate. But they could still very easily bleed to death later. This is the intimidation factor of a small caliber weapon, that the person will suffer serious injury and might die.
But there is a vast difference between what a robber might use to intimidate someone he doesn't think will be armed, and what a person should use to defend his or her home. The first one chooses to intimidate, the second has little choice, but to fight.
When faced with a situation where you must fight, your objective isn't that, sometime later, they might die. The objective is that they will immediately not be able to carry through with the attack.
Barrel length issues.
The length of the barrel in a handgun is quite important. Shorter barrel length might make it easier to conceal, if that should ever become an objective, but a shorter barrel length will work against you in many other ways. It generally takes between 2 and 3 inches of barrel length before the powder charge is completely burned. After that, while the gasses in the barrel are getting cooler and losing pressure, the bullet is gaining energy. So a shorter barrel means more flash and a louder bang, but a less effective bullet. And the flash and bang usually work against the shooter, making follow up shots less effective and harder to aim. As the barrel length drops below 3 inches, the powder charge doesn't complete burning, so this effect is exaggerated.
Over the past several years, substantial number of tests on compact pistols of interest have been done. Some of the results are here.
One note stands out. For the 38 snubby, "There seems to be no JHP bullet cartridge that is capable of providing a reasonable balance of adequate penetration and reliable expansion. " This is with a 2 inch barrel. It puts the 38 snubby in the same category as the 22. As in, not appropriate for home defense.
As the barrel gets longer, not only does the bullet become more effective, but it gets easier to aim the weapon accurately. Somewhere, out beyond 4 inches, takes longer to aim the weapon because the weight of the barrel slows down how fast you can bring it to aiming point, but the trade off is accuracy to a greater distance, though this is not usually an issue with home defense.
Therefore it is best to look for a weapon with a barrel between 3 and 5 inches in length.
Conclusion and afterward.
So, here, we have covered the first four basic questions that need to be answered before buying a gun, and took a brief look at one issue that isn't really a question. The next article will be about storage, carry, and about types of ammunition. Followed by one on shotguns and rifles, where we will be looking at another question or two. And lastly one about training
This article is a spinoff from an article I read, telling gun owners what kind of gun NOT to buy for a survival gun. It occurred to me that a great many well meaning, but naive, people might not have a gun at all. While the relative calm of the 19th and 20th centuries made this responsibility less obvious, the days are coming that we need to take this responsibility more seriously. In the fierce days ahead, not having a gun is going to become more and more irresponsible.
Note: Biblical Reference Luke 24:35-38 (Young's Literal Translation)
And he said to them, 'When I sent you without bag, and scrip, and sandals, did ye lack anything?' and they said, 'Nothing.' Then said he to them, 'But, now, he who is having a bag, let him take it up, and in like manner also a scrip; and he who is not having, let him sell his garment, and buy a sword, for I say to you, that yet this that hath been written it behoveth to be fulfilled in me: And with lawless ones he was reckoned, for also the things concerning me have an end.' And they said, 'Sir, lo, here are two swords;' and he said to them, 'It is sufficient.'
The original article that got me thinking on this subject is:
Five Guns Not to Buy as Survival Firearms Monday, April 4, 2011
But becoming responsibly armed is not just a matter of going out and getting a gun. I see it as a process of acquiring the weapon, ammunition, and the know how to use them safely and effectively. This series of articles won't tell you exactly what gun to buy, but will point out factors to narrow the search. You will still need to shop around, look at a lot of different models and see how they fit in your hand.
There are really four or five questions that need to be answered
Question 1 - What is your budget?
For this article, it is assumed you don't have thousands of extra dollars to invest in guns, so most of the focus is on getting effective weapons (and learning how to shoot them) for not too much money. So quite a bit of the following advise is economically driven. Still, you can count on the cost being a few hundred dollars, at best, and it will take about a year, or more, to accomplish what I am writing about.
The following process mirrors, somewhat, what myself and some of the people I know went through over the past few years, so it is mostly a baseline, and you might be able to do better.
As a baseline, a good automatic handgun will cost around $200 or more, and a good revolver will cost around $300 or so. You will be needing at least $100 worth of ammunition and will probably need to spend about $100 or so, on going to the range. If you opt for a concealed carry permit, expect that to cost more than another $100. So the very least you will need to budget is $500, and I recommend budgeting $800 to $1000.
Question 2 - What is your previous experience?
Some of this does depend on just how new you are to shooting. Never shot? Never played with BB guns? You might want to go through a couple of preliminary steps. Have someone you trust show you how to shoot. Mostly, you want them to show you how to handle the weapon, hold it, aim it etc. The correct grip is very important. You can use a borrowed 22 to go to the range for this, just buy a box of "standard velocity" 22 ammo. Or whatever ammo is recommended by whoever loaned you the gun. Ammo in this caliber only costs 3 to 5 cents a round, so a couple hundred rounds is not too hard on the budget.
Safety is always the most important thing, and anyone new to guns must be taught how to know if a gun is loaded, and how the safety works. The first thing you must do, any time you pick up a gun, or if a gun is handed to you, is determine if the gun is loaded. Always consider it loaded until proven otherwise.
Question 3 - Do you have good grip strength?
What kind of a gun you buy will, of a necessity, depend on how much grip strength you have. Automatics are almost always a better choice, as they carry more ammo, and cost less. But you have to have enough grip strength to chamber a round easily. I know at least three people who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic pistol. For those who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic, a revolver (or wheel gun) is the correct gun to buy.
There is also a matter of simplicity. For those who find an automatic too complicated, a revolver may be the answer, though I recommend finishing this article and getting some training on an auto before making that decision.
Question 4 - How big of a gun do you need?
I ask this somewhat rhetorically, as I only recommend a couple of different calibers. (Of course, there is frame size to consider, for those whose hand is either very small or very large. But I am not addressing that, here)
For those who choose an automatic, I recommend a 9mm. If you find a really good deal on a 380, 40S&W, or a 45, you could go with one of those, but ammo will cost more, and in the case of the 380, it isn't as effective a weapon, so more range time will be in order.
For those who need a revolver, my first choice is, without a doubt, the 357. There are a few reasons for this choice. First, it is a very common revolver, firing fairly common ammunition. Second, it can also fire 38+P ammunition, which is, in fact, the most common revolver ammunition. The 357 JHP is one of the most effective handgun cartridges normally available, rivaling, even, the 44 Magnum. The less powerful 38+P is still very effective, and easier to control. It is just about equal to a 9mm cartridge.
Again, if you get a really good deal, a 44 or 38 is acceptable, but will limit your ammunition choices, and your ammunition could be considerably more expensive.
A couple of articles illustrate why I insist that a person not buy an underpowered gun.
One, from Waco TX, is somewhat humorous (note that the first news story contains a factual error, as the man had a collapsed lung, therefore the shot was fairly square, not a "grazing" wound).
Net-News Story
Same story from TV station
Police said the 41-year-old man, whose name was not released, attempted suicide by shooting himself in the chest with a .22 caliber rifle. Afterward he evidently changed his mind and drove himself to the fire station to request medical assistance. He suffered a collapse lung, but is expected to recover, police said.
Not Nearly So Nice Story don't read the full version of this one unless you have a strong stomach.
Sammie Foust had never fired a gun in her life. She aimed for the man's center of mass and pulled the trigger. It sounded like a little cap pistol. There was no recoil, no blood. She figured the gun had misfired.
The medical examiner concluded the first shot had entered his mouth, the second his heart, the third and fourth bullets his abdomen and groin. He had taken nearly an hour to bleed to death.
The results of shooting someone with a small caliber weapon are unpredictable. In all likelihood, the results will not be immediate. But they could still very easily bleed to death later. This is the intimidation factor of a small caliber weapon, that the person will suffer serious injury and might die.
But there is a vast difference between what a robber might use to intimidate someone he doesn't think will be armed, and what a person should use to defend his or her home. The first one chooses to intimidate, the second has little choice, but to fight.
When faced with a situation where you must fight, your objective isn't that, sometime later, they might die. The objective is that they will immediately not be able to carry through with the attack.
Barrel length issues.
The length of the barrel in a handgun is quite important. Shorter barrel length might make it easier to conceal, if that should ever become an objective, but a shorter barrel length will work against you in many other ways. It generally takes between 2 and 3 inches of barrel length before the powder charge is completely burned. After that, while the gasses in the barrel are getting cooler and losing pressure, the bullet is gaining energy. So a shorter barrel means more flash and a louder bang, but a less effective bullet. And the flash and bang usually work against the shooter, making follow up shots less effective and harder to aim. As the barrel length drops below 3 inches, the powder charge doesn't complete burning, so this effect is exaggerated.
Over the past several years, substantial number of tests on compact pistols of interest have been done. Some of the results are here.
One note stands out. For the 38 snubby, "There seems to be no JHP bullet cartridge that is capable of providing a reasonable balance of adequate penetration and reliable expansion. " This is with a 2 inch barrel. It puts the 38 snubby in the same category as the 22. As in, not appropriate for home defense.
As the barrel gets longer, not only does the bullet become more effective, but it gets easier to aim the weapon accurately. Somewhere, out beyond 4 inches, takes longer to aim the weapon because the weight of the barrel slows down how fast you can bring it to aiming point, but the trade off is accuracy to a greater distance, though this is not usually an issue with home defense.
Therefore it is best to look for a weapon with a barrel between 3 and 5 inches in length.
Conclusion and afterward.
So, here, we have covered the first four basic questions that need to be answered before buying a gun, and took a brief look at one issue that isn't really a question. The next article will be about storage, carry, and about types of ammunition. Followed by one on shotguns and rifles, where we will be looking at another question or two. And lastly one about training
Saturday, December 31, 2011
End of Year Roundup
Well, this year has gone by so quickly there is not enough time for a proper end of year roundup. Of course, anybody knows, as we get older, our years get shorter.
At the beginning of the year I recognized that we may be entering the "end game" and the prophesies concerning the Rapture, Tribulation, and the Return of Christ seem, more than ever to be coming true. I rather suspect we have less than 20 years left in this world, though we may have less than 20 minutes also. As any Bible believing Christian will tell you: "NO man knows the day, nor the hour" that the end times will come.
Throughout most of the year I watched the world and US economy slowly tread water or move first one way then another, with no real progress. But I really spent most of the year rethinking and reorganizing my disaster plans. Oh, yes, I have disaster plans. I am not making plans to ride out Armageddon, and be a survivalist in days that look like Mad Max. But I have plans to make things go a little smoother should some little calamity come to my corner of the Earth between now and the End.
Towards the end of the year, mostly in October and November, I spent too much time following the silver market, and considering buying some silver coins. I actually tried at one point, only to have my credit card not go through, because of some computer glitch. I might try again, but I am learning not to spend too much time thinking about it.
At the beginning of the year I recognized that we may be entering the "end game" and the prophesies concerning the Rapture, Tribulation, and the Return of Christ seem, more than ever to be coming true. I rather suspect we have less than 20 years left in this world, though we may have less than 20 minutes also. As any Bible believing Christian will tell you: "NO man knows the day, nor the hour" that the end times will come.
Throughout most of the year I watched the world and US economy slowly tread water or move first one way then another, with no real progress. But I really spent most of the year rethinking and reorganizing my disaster plans. Oh, yes, I have disaster plans. I am not making plans to ride out Armageddon, and be a survivalist in days that look like Mad Max. But I have plans to make things go a little smoother should some little calamity come to my corner of the Earth between now and the End.
Towards the end of the year, mostly in October and November, I spent too much time following the silver market, and considering buying some silver coins. I actually tried at one point, only to have my credit card not go through, because of some computer glitch. I might try again, but I am learning not to spend too much time thinking about it.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
The Economy Still Stinks a Little
I find it amusing the markets are all up these past few days. Can anyone say "irrational exuberance"? Not only is our government still massively in debt, with no real plan in sight to fix it, but the governments of Greece and a few others are in the same condition. And not only are governments in dire condition, but the consumers and the corporations they have come to worship as their provider are in dire condition also, with balance sheets full of debt. And a meltdown in Europe is not too much of a long-shot in the next few weeks.
The fact the world economy keeps humming along is a testament to workers who get up each morning, look at the situation, and go to work anyway, even knowing they aren't making enough to do well. And it is a testament to God's Grace and Patience that he hasn't pulled the plug on this world and allowed the Evil One to come to power for that "last 7 years."
It is possible (it would fit well with my understanding of prophesy) the meltdown of the European Union could be the start of the Great Tribulation. But I think it is more likely just one more event along the way towards it, and we have a ways to go. And that is how I do my planning. If this is "the end," so be it, but if it is not, then here is the best way to handle it.
Greenspan used the term "irrational exuberance" in Dec 2006, and within a year we were into the meltdown. I was a bit disturbed Bernanke sold us a bill of goods while secretly bailing out the world banking system. We were told TARP would be $800B, and it looked on the surface it was less than that. In reality, it Was $16,000B dollars. 20 times as much. I warned repeatedly back in 2008 that it seemed to me that the Fed was printing a lot of money, but was told they weren't printing all that much. Now I see why. A great deal of it was pumped into, not our economy, but other countries economies. The globalist leaders of our nation sold us out years ago to build a new world order, and this was part of the price we will pay.
Another reason people may be overly optimistic about the economy is a drop in the unemployment rate. But that is deceptive. The rate dropped, not because more people had jobs (although payroll did go up about 120k jobs) but because a lot of people dropped out of the system. Also factory employment was down. All in all, this points to a weakening economy that is hollowing out even more.
I have begun to look into buying silver. Not much, as I don't have much money. My first attempt, a couple of weeks ago failed because of a credit card malfunction. (I think my credit union's safeguard said it didn't look like a normal purchase for me.) Last year (I think) I said silver was overpriced and should be less than $26 an ounce. This year, because of the possibility of a meltdown, I am looking at buying silver at any price under $31 an ounce. If things get to looking worse, I might go higher, but then again, the price of Gold dropped just before the meltdown in the mortgage market. I am hoping I can take advantage of such a drop.
Money is not all there is in this world, but Jesus told us to be aware of the goings on in the world. And Paul said that while we should be as harmless as doves, he also said we should be as wise as serpents.
I say be frugal with yourself and generous with others, but don't let the goings on in the world rob you blind.
Raw Link Information for this article.
irrational exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm
http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/Rising-Cash---And-Rising-Debt-Too.aspx
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/story/2011-11-26/myth-of-corporate-cash-piles/51346848/1
Secret Bailout of the World Banking System
http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
Govenrment Printing Money
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-gov-printing-more-money.html
U.S. Employment Situation Report for November (Text)
By Chris Middleton - Dec 2, 2011 7:45 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-employment-situation-report-for-november-text-.html
Following is the text of the November employment report from the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job.
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7 cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.
U.S. October Consumer Price Index Report (Text)
By Kristy Scheuble - Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-october-consumer-price-index-report-text-.html
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month's 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September. (food up, energy up less, all other up, overall, up more than payroll)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/greece-s-new-premier-says-keeping-euro-is-only-way-for-country.html
The immediate priority for Greece is securing the payment of an 8 billion-euro loan installment under a previous 110 billion-euro European Union-led rescue, Papademos said. The tranche must be paid before the middle of December to prevent a collapse of the country’s economy.
Samaras said yesterday that backing for the interim government should last no more than the three months needed to secure the financing before elections are held.
“The danger is that this is a really transitional service government, a pre-electoral government that will do all the right things to secure the loan but will be unable to promote the real reforms,” Yannos Papantoniou, a former finance and economy minister in a previous Pasok government.
The fact the world economy keeps humming along is a testament to workers who get up each morning, look at the situation, and go to work anyway, even knowing they aren't making enough to do well. And it is a testament to God's Grace and Patience that he hasn't pulled the plug on this world and allowed the Evil One to come to power for that "last 7 years."
It is possible (it would fit well with my understanding of prophesy) the meltdown of the European Union could be the start of the Great Tribulation. But I think it is more likely just one more event along the way towards it, and we have a ways to go. And that is how I do my planning. If this is "the end," so be it, but if it is not, then here is the best way to handle it.
Greenspan used the term "irrational exuberance" in Dec 2006, and within a year we were into the meltdown. I was a bit disturbed Bernanke sold us a bill of goods while secretly bailing out the world banking system. We were told TARP would be $800B, and it looked on the surface it was less than that. In reality, it Was $16,000B dollars. 20 times as much. I warned repeatedly back in 2008 that it seemed to me that the Fed was printing a lot of money, but was told they weren't printing all that much. Now I see why. A great deal of it was pumped into, not our economy, but other countries economies. The globalist leaders of our nation sold us out years ago to build a new world order, and this was part of the price we will pay.
Another reason people may be overly optimistic about the economy is a drop in the unemployment rate. But that is deceptive. The rate dropped, not because more people had jobs (although payroll did go up about 120k jobs) but because a lot of people dropped out of the system. Also factory employment was down. All in all, this points to a weakening economy that is hollowing out even more.
I have begun to look into buying silver. Not much, as I don't have much money. My first attempt, a couple of weeks ago failed because of a credit card malfunction. (I think my credit union's safeguard said it didn't look like a normal purchase for me.) Last year (I think) I said silver was overpriced and should be less than $26 an ounce. This year, because of the possibility of a meltdown, I am looking at buying silver at any price under $31 an ounce. If things get to looking worse, I might go higher, but then again, the price of Gold dropped just before the meltdown in the mortgage market. I am hoping I can take advantage of such a drop.
Money is not all there is in this world, but Jesus told us to be aware of the goings on in the world. And Paul said that while we should be as harmless as doves, he also said we should be as wise as serpents.
I say be frugal with yourself and generous with others, but don't let the goings on in the world rob you blind.
Raw Link Information for this article.
irrational exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm
http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/Rising-Cash---And-Rising-Debt-Too.aspx
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/story/2011-11-26/myth-of-corporate-cash-piles/51346848/1
Secret Bailout of the World Banking System
http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
Govenrment Printing Money
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-gov-printing-more-money.html
U.S. Employment Situation Report for November (Text)
By Chris Middleton - Dec 2, 2011 7:45 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-employment-situation-report-for-november-text-.html
Following is the text of the November employment report from the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job.
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7 cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.
U.S. October Consumer Price Index Report (Text)
By Kristy Scheuble - Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-october-consumer-price-index-report-text-.html
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month's 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September. (food up, energy up less, all other up, overall, up more than payroll)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/greece-s-new-premier-says-keeping-euro-is-only-way-for-country.html
The immediate priority for Greece is securing the payment of an 8 billion-euro loan installment under a previous 110 billion-euro European Union-led rescue, Papademos said. The tranche must be paid before the middle of December to prevent a collapse of the country’s economy.
Samaras said yesterday that backing for the interim government should last no more than the three months needed to secure the financing before elections are held.
“The danger is that this is a really transitional service government, a pre-electoral government that will do all the right things to secure the loan but will be unable to promote the real reforms,” Yannos Papantoniou, a former finance and economy minister in a previous Pasok government.
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