As promised, here are my annual gas price forecasts. While I did blow it last year, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 6 years, and the one time I did blow it, if they did follow my advice by living very frugally, no harm should have come from it.
The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.22 early next May.
The ever increasing role of China, the recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will mostly cancel out the other two, leaving the economics in balance. A slow increase in consumption, coupled with some optimism in the markets, and a steadily increasing cost of production seem to be the prime factors in driving up the cost in the next several months.
Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $68 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$2.68 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.18 per gallon.
I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the prices have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use. But this year, I don't think those need be applied.
some optimism in the markets (I don't agree)
why I think economic forecasts may be overly optimistic
Bernanke Says
A Jobless Recovery - but with extra pain.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Consumer Reports disappointment
Early this year I started looking for a new (used) truck to replace the 1995 Isuzu P'up I have been driving for the past 9 years or so. One of the steps I took, to research the market, I bought a copy of Consumer Reports (2008 edition, I think). After looking through some of the write-ups, I can see one of the problems we are facing in personal transportation.
I am looking for, ideally, a small pickup with an extended cab, a 4 cylinder engine, and an automatic transmission. I thought, with the ever increasing cost of gas a few years ago (and I think someone like consumer reports would have some foresight) they would have some focus on gas mileage. No, not at all. There is a mention of mileage on only one model.
No, instead, the write ups for all small trucks read like a spoiled teenager wrote them. 4 cylinder engines are to be disdained. All pickups seem to lack horse power, which seems to be a big issue. They drive like trucks (duh), stiff and choppy. Well, dang, they are trucks. They all seem to have "inferior brakes" (I guess he is comparing them to his sports car).
And it isn't just trucks that read like a spoiled teenager. I happen to own a Hyundai Accent. Nice car, but too many bells and whistles under the hood. So I looked it up. "Back seat too small for tall people." You don't say. It IS a subcompact. "Look for a model with the optional power steering, a must have feature." WHAT! Is this guy on drugs or something? Must have? On a subcompact? My truck doesn't have a power steering.
This guy needs to be stuck behind the wheel of my old Deuce and a Half (M35) army truck for a while.
As I alluded to in the beginning of this article, this is symptomatic of the problems we, as a nation, face in personal transportation. We keep adding bells and whistles to our cars and trucks. Each and every one of these costs extra on the price of the vehicle and almost all of them cost money every time we fill up at the pump. Also, deluded by the temporary availability of cheap petroleum, we almost completely replaced the Light Utility Vehicle (named after the Chevy LUV) class of vehicles with sporty indulgences that are in many ways play-toys that look like small pickup trucks.
I am looking for, ideally, a small pickup with an extended cab, a 4 cylinder engine, and an automatic transmission. I thought, with the ever increasing cost of gas a few years ago (and I think someone like consumer reports would have some foresight) they would have some focus on gas mileage. No, not at all. There is a mention of mileage on only one model.
No, instead, the write ups for all small trucks read like a spoiled teenager wrote them. 4 cylinder engines are to be disdained. All pickups seem to lack horse power, which seems to be a big issue. They drive like trucks (duh), stiff and choppy. Well, dang, they are trucks. They all seem to have "inferior brakes" (I guess he is comparing them to his sports car).
And it isn't just trucks that read like a spoiled teenager. I happen to own a Hyundai Accent. Nice car, but too many bells and whistles under the hood. So I looked it up. "Back seat too small for tall people." You don't say. It IS a subcompact. "Look for a model with the optional power steering, a must have feature." WHAT! Is this guy on drugs or something? Must have? On a subcompact? My truck doesn't have a power steering.
This guy needs to be stuck behind the wheel of my old Deuce and a Half (M35) army truck for a while.
As I alluded to in the beginning of this article, this is symptomatic of the problems we, as a nation, face in personal transportation. We keep adding bells and whistles to our cars and trucks. Each and every one of these costs extra on the price of the vehicle and almost all of them cost money every time we fill up at the pump. Also, deluded by the temporary availability of cheap petroleum, we almost completely replaced the Light Utility Vehicle (named after the Chevy LUV) class of vehicles with sporty indulgences that are in many ways play-toys that look like small pickup trucks.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Finances for the Long Haul
I once said this downturn in the economy may be known as the second Great Depression, or by the symbol GD2. So for the time being I will be writing a monthly column to summarise the world economics picture as I see it.
Well, on this third monthly installment, I have to first mention that I was initially wrong about the price of gas. Rather than going up another 10 cents, it dropped several cents, and looks now like it will drop another several cents. This is doubly good, both because it will grease the way for our profits and it means that China is not as big of a threat this year as I thought. Our profit is, as always, China's loss.
But, to be fair, everything went down this past month. The dreaded "double dip recession?" Who knows. But I once said it would keep getting worse until this fall, and it now looks, again, like that may be right.
There will be more on the subject of gas prices posted under "Energy" in the last couple of days in July. This will be the month to watch oil prices, as the going price on a barrel of crude, over the course of the month of July is one of the best indicators for the price of gas next spring. Of course, there is always the fly in the ointment - amateur speculators. These are the people who drove the price to $147 dollars a barrel last year.
I would have thought most of the amateur traders and speculators would learn from getting burnt in the dot com bubble burst of 2001, and getting burnt again in the housing bubble burst of 2007, but I just heard (on CNBC Fast Money) they are still playing a significant role in trading oil futures.
There was a joke on the Net's a few years ago about where is a fool and their money when I need them. Maybe we have found where they are: day traders and the government. Both have been throwing money into the markets like drunken sailors.
The last couple of weeks, bottom dropped out of the 2-year bond market, indicating that recovery and the move into very high inflation rates now looks more than two years away, but I don't want to forecast it that far out. It is highly likely the markets will rally suddenly and catch those of us who are wary by surprise.
I am still not advocating buying gold at this time (unless the price falls below $900), but I am not advocating against it either. See the numbers here.
There is a real worry some years out that the economy will undergo a round of high inflation coupled with phony numbers from the government. This happened about 5 or so years back. As one economist put it: "there isn't any inflation, but everything costs twice as much."
My basic advice still hasn't changed any. The five rules still apply.
So buckle your seat belts, and hang on. The ride is likely to be bumpy.
Well, on this third monthly installment, I have to first mention that I was initially wrong about the price of gas. Rather than going up another 10 cents, it dropped several cents, and looks now like it will drop another several cents. This is doubly good, both because it will grease the way for our profits and it means that China is not as big of a threat this year as I thought. Our profit is, as always, China's loss.
But, to be fair, everything went down this past month. The dreaded "double dip recession?" Who knows. But I once said it would keep getting worse until this fall, and it now looks, again, like that may be right.
There will be more on the subject of gas prices posted under "Energy" in the last couple of days in July. This will be the month to watch oil prices, as the going price on a barrel of crude, over the course of the month of July is one of the best indicators for the price of gas next spring. Of course, there is always the fly in the ointment - amateur speculators. These are the people who drove the price to $147 dollars a barrel last year.
I would have thought most of the amateur traders and speculators would learn from getting burnt in the dot com bubble burst of 2001, and getting burnt again in the housing bubble burst of 2007, but I just heard (on CNBC Fast Money) they are still playing a significant role in trading oil futures.
There was a joke on the Net's a few years ago about where is a fool and their money when I need them. Maybe we have found where they are: day traders and the government. Both have been throwing money into the markets like drunken sailors.
The last couple of weeks, bottom dropped out of the 2-year bond market, indicating that recovery and the move into very high inflation rates now looks more than two years away, but I don't want to forecast it that far out. It is highly likely the markets will rally suddenly and catch those of us who are wary by surprise.
I am still not advocating buying gold at this time (unless the price falls below $900), but I am not advocating against it either. See the numbers here.
There is a real worry some years out that the economy will undergo a round of high inflation coupled with phony numbers from the government. This happened about 5 or so years back. As one economist put it: "there isn't any inflation, but everything costs twice as much."
My basic advice still hasn't changed any. The five rules still apply.
So buckle your seat belts, and hang on. The ride is likely to be bumpy.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Book Review 1 - Chrstianity in Crisis
This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog: CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have seen.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical?
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to television preachers, as I was too lazy to spend the time examining their doctrine. Bringing these so called christian leaders to our attention, the author exposes the cult like teachings of Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn, Oral Roberts, Creflo Dollar, John Hagee, and many others. He also takes to task others like Joyce Meyer and Joel Osteen, who I would consider (and I could be wrong) more of the "christianity lite" variety. All are, in one form or another, "prosperity preachers," espousing the view that we can tell God what to do.
I don't take the author's word for everything. "No teacher has a free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned" includes him. While I have not finished the book, some of what I read indicates he may have trouble interpreting Romans Chapter 8 among others.
The early chapters were hard for me to read, because I kept referring back to the "end notes" to see where he got such outrageous material. He supports each and every accusation of their heresy with citations on when and where the heretics made those statements. As the book progresses, it seems to get repetitive, but that is partially because each of the "cast of characters," as he calls them, espouses very similar viewpoints. He does, also, examine some of them from more than one angle. One irritant for me is that most of the more outrageous statements these prosperity preachers have made were in the 80's and 90's, giving them the opportunity to say that he is judging them unfairly because they have learned better since. I haven't heard any of them say that, but I do know that Jim Bakker later repented (although I don't know what he has been doing since).
Towards the middle of the book, which is where I am currently studying, he begins to compare their theology with the classical theology of the traditional Church. He supports his theological arguments well, and shows how, many times, even a shallow study of the context of the prosperity doctrine's biblical references reveals the absolute lunacy of their interpretation.
Well the book is about 400 pages, and I am only halfway through, so I should write more in the future.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical?
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to television preachers, as I was too lazy to spend the time examining their doctrine. Bringing these so called christian leaders to our attention, the author exposes the cult like teachings of Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn, Oral Roberts, Creflo Dollar, John Hagee, and many others. He also takes to task others like Joyce Meyer and Joel Osteen, who I would consider (and I could be wrong) more of the "christianity lite" variety. All are, in one form or another, "prosperity preachers," espousing the view that we can tell God what to do.
I don't take the author's word for everything. "No teacher has a free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned" includes him. While I have not finished the book, some of what I read indicates he may have trouble interpreting Romans Chapter 8 among others.
The early chapters were hard for me to read, because I kept referring back to the "end notes" to see where he got such outrageous material. He supports each and every accusation of their heresy with citations on when and where the heretics made those statements. As the book progresses, it seems to get repetitive, but that is partially because each of the "cast of characters," as he calls them, espouses very similar viewpoints. He does, also, examine some of them from more than one angle. One irritant for me is that most of the more outrageous statements these prosperity preachers have made were in the 80's and 90's, giving them the opportunity to say that he is judging them unfairly because they have learned better since. I haven't heard any of them say that, but I do know that Jim Bakker later repented (although I don't know what he has been doing since).
Towards the middle of the book, which is where I am currently studying, he begins to compare their theology with the classical theology of the traditional Church. He supports his theological arguments well, and shows how, many times, even a shallow study of the context of the prosperity doctrine's biblical references reveals the absolute lunacy of their interpretation.
Well the book is about 400 pages, and I am only halfway through, so I should write more in the future.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Crisis in the Church
This is a combination of an initial book report, and a call to action.
There is a crisis in Christian Churches in America. Actually, it has been going on for decades, and is epidemic in many countries. Many people think this crisis is some unconfessed sin of pastors or may blame the bingo parlor, night club, strip joint, or tavern down the street. Some may think it is the stinginess of the congregants not putting their full tithe in the offering plate. All of these things may be a slight problem for your neighborhood Church, but there is a bigger crisis.
The problem comes into your home on television. No, it isn't MTV or VH1. It isn't PBS or National Geographic. It isn't the late night soft porn on many cable channels. It isn't the ever increasing sex, drugs and profanity on prime time, or the references both hidden and overt to the occult on those same shows, or on saturday morning cartoons. All of these things are bad enough, but they are the things of the world, and do not present a crisis inside the Church.
The crisis is brought into your home through the so called christian networks, and the many so called christian programs that air on sunday morning, purporting to bring the Church into your home, but are really wolves in sheep's clothing, teaching a form of new age metaphysical deism, wrapped in christian jargon, plucked at will from the Bible.
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to these television preachers, because I have learned over the years to inspect what men tell me is true, and in the area of religion, I must inspect all they tell me against the standard of the Bible. This is a lot of work, and I am somewhat lazy, so I never paid attention to them because I didn't want to have to go to all of the work to verify what they were teaching.
These so called christian leaders were brought to my attention through a book I have begun reading - a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog:
CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, including an earlier edition of this book.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical? Catchy sayings and country music lyrics and the teachings of pseudo christian religions are more likely to be taken as Gospel than the Gospel itself. This is a complete disaster for the Christian Church, and needs to be dealt with in every truly Christian Church.
There is a crisis in Christian Churches in America. Actually, it has been going on for decades, and is epidemic in many countries. Many people think this crisis is some unconfessed sin of pastors or may blame the bingo parlor, night club, strip joint, or tavern down the street. Some may think it is the stinginess of the congregants not putting their full tithe in the offering plate. All of these things may be a slight problem for your neighborhood Church, but there is a bigger crisis.
The problem comes into your home on television. No, it isn't MTV or VH1. It isn't PBS or National Geographic. It isn't the late night soft porn on many cable channels. It isn't the ever increasing sex, drugs and profanity on prime time, or the references both hidden and overt to the occult on those same shows, or on saturday morning cartoons. All of these things are bad enough, but they are the things of the world, and do not present a crisis inside the Church.
The crisis is brought into your home through the so called christian networks, and the many so called christian programs that air on sunday morning, purporting to bring the Church into your home, but are really wolves in sheep's clothing, teaching a form of new age metaphysical deism, wrapped in christian jargon, plucked at will from the Bible.
In the past, I didn't pay much attention to these television preachers, because I have learned over the years to inspect what men tell me is true, and in the area of religion, I must inspect all they tell me against the standard of the Bible. This is a lot of work, and I am somewhat lazy, so I never paid attention to them because I didn't want to have to go to all of the work to verify what they were teaching.
These so called christian leaders were brought to my attention through a book I have begun reading - a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog:
CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, including an earlier edition of this book.
A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."
And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical? Catchy sayings and country music lyrics and the teachings of pseudo christian religions are more likely to be taken as Gospel than the Gospel itself. This is a complete disaster for the Christian Church, and needs to be dealt with in every truly Christian Church.
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