Another problem I recently became aware of, is the expanding number of people carrying two jobs in the statistics. I was unaware both that the monthly payroll report I follow was tracking them twice, and unaware of just how many of these people there are, especially how many more of them there are since Obamacare caused so many to lose their full time jobs.
I have discovered a new blog, "Global Economic Analysis" by 'Mish' Shedlock, that does a lot of straight talk about the world economy. He holds an underlying philosophy of economics very similar to mine, but since he does analysis full time, instead of a few hours a month, he sees a lot of stuff I don't.
Here is his article on the Labor Statistics, and the double reporting of jobs.
The higher number 191,000 jobs a month would mean the underlying economy is doing just enough to keep us above water, but the lower number shows we were clearly sinking in 2013.The third table shows the volatile nature of the data, especially the household survey. It's the second table that is the important one. Take special note of the bottom two lines in the second table.The third table shows the volatile nature of the data, especially the household survey. It's the second table that is the important one. Take special note of the bottom two lines in the second table.
Until this past year, the establishment survey and household survey moved tightly. In the last 12 months, the payroll survey averaged a gain of 191,000 jobs a month while the household survey averaged less than half of that at 92,000 jobs per month.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/12/enormous-discrepancy-between-jobs-and.html#dP5AxjiU7CwtPyPD.99
Until this past year, the establishment survey and household survey moved tightly. In the last 12 months, the payroll survey averaged a gain of 191,000 jobs a month while the household survey averaged less than half of that at 92,000 jobs per month.
The third table shows the volatile nature of the data, especially the household survey. It's the second table that is the important one. Take special note of the bottom two lines in the second table.
Until this past year, the establishment survey and household survey moved tightly. In the last 12 months, the payroll survey averaged a gain of 191,000 jobs a month while the household survey averaged less than half of that at 92,000 jobs per month.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/12/enormous-discrepancy-between-jobs-and.html#dP5AxjiU7CwtPyPD.99
This is not the only statistic to be affected by the way it is calculated. GDP calculations changed last year, and the effect is likely to be a 3% difference in the numbers, with no difference in the economy.
More about that, found at "Inc,"a financial investor newspage.
I am still trying to process how this will all play out this year and next, but I know it won't be as cut and dry as I first thought it would be. (Are things of the future ever so clear that we simply know what to do?)
One point of good news, Mish Shedlock sees the US economy as far more resilient than I usually do (although he has been about as astonished as I am that Europe has held together in the face of numbers that clearly do not work). He also sees a future without the very high inflation spiral that most of us see. He sees rather, that things will grind down to a near halt, with Peter impoverished so that robbing him will still not be able to pay Paul. (Me, I am not so convinced)
