Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Economy getting better?

Yes and no.

First a discussion of that question, and then some musings on global economics, oil, gold, and the possibility of the dreaded "double dip" recession, and Jesus Return.

I had earlier named this "Great Depression 2" but now many are calling it the Great Recession, so I think that is what I will call it now. And in spite of all the efforts of the Obama Administration, we are ever so slowly pulling out of it.

Sometimes it is almost humorous to watch as the numbers go up and down each month. As the month progresses, the numbers rise as reports of optimism show up, followed by reports of rising numbers. So, really much of it is rising numbers, based on reports of rising numbers.

Then the beginning of the month, the payroll
statistics roll in, and the numbers plummet.
Because payroll statistics
have a lot to do with reality.

On major part of the problem is the way we measure the economy. All of the economists have said for years that 70 percent of our economy is based on spending. The world economy stops if we all stop spending, and that has become a self fulfilling prophesy. If everyone were to stop (or even cut back severely) spending, the economy would be in chaos in very short order.

But payroll is where the forecasters need to be looking. Specifically manufacturing payroll. And while it is expanding, it is doing so at an excruciatingly slow pace. It is expanding against the combined headwind of the Obama government, moderately high energy prices, and a strong dollar. But it is expanding so slowly that it will not, at this pace, keep up with the increasing population, and decreasing world resources.

Musings on global economics

And still, the foolishness of the socialists around the world shows itself without shame. On CNBC, early this morning, I heard a couple of them discussing the budgets of countries around Europe. Someday, they said, we need to reduce the deficit spending, but right now is not the time. They actually think governments borrowing and spending more money on socialist programs, when they are already suffering the consequences of debt overload, will lead them to prosperity.

But you can't change the way
the world thinks and behaves,
you can only change
the way you think and behave.

Musings on oil

The gusher under the Gulf has brought the idiots to the forefront. From the BP execs and engineers who have shown a complete incompetence when it comes to capping the leak, and a contempt for telling the truth to the public about things like how large the leak is, to those who rallied in Austin to tell us that we need to change immediately to alternative energy sources, to Obama, who, this morning said he needs to know "whose ass to kick."

And then there is the ever present bureaucracy that would rather do nothing, insuring a certain failure, than to allow Louisiana to build a berm that might not be 100% sure. And two weeks after it became desperate, everyone is still bogged down in protecting their own butts.

This whole fiasco has not affected the price of oil, (it amounts to less than 1% of our supply) but it has affected the price of BP stock, as it should. Although the lunitics in Ausin espouse some wacky schemes energywise, I agree with them that ultimately BP should be dismantled and sold off to pay for the cleanup, which coult take more than two years.

Musings on gold

Gold still hovers about 20% (give or take) above its fair market value, so I wouldn't buy any at this time, but on the other hand, you'd be a fool to sell it, unless you need the money urgently. Eventually, all of the foolishness of the governments of the world will catch up with them. Optimistically, you will need that gold as an anchor for your investments. Pessimistically, you might want to trade it for ammo.
(12 gauge and 9mm are the most popular,
but 38 special will also trade well)

Musings on the dreaded "double dip"

There will be another recession. And there will be a round of excessively high inflation (I don't think it will be hyperinflation, by definition). When? I don't know. If we get the recession first, that will be the "double dip" everyone talks about. But it could be, that we will get the inflation for a few years, and then go into a recession. Then it will be called something else.

Either way, the road ahead will be rougher than anything seen since WW2. And it will never get better again. (I thought, at one time, that the US couldn't be beaten. I never thought about it being sold.)

Musings on Jesus Return

There will be wars ... and many other signs. Someday Jesus will return, but it will be on His own time. God is not impressed with our calendar. Do not despair. Do not let your love grow cold. We live in the age of apostasy, and can see the signs and prophesies being fulfilled by the numbers. But no man knows the day nor the hour. (Nor the year) Personally, I expect things to get a lot worse before He returns, whether that is in 2 years, or 32 years.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

China is beginning to import coal? Are all their mine on fire?
I guess they don't plan on paying any carbon tax