Friday, November 05, 2010

November financial outlook

Treasury bill interest rates hit an all time low recently, and the Dollar has been at its all time weakest (at least in recent history, as far back as I can remember). This is the result of both the "quantitative easing" (printing of more money), and the anticipation of what that extra money will do.

The US private sector payroll is better than many expected, and better than it has been in many months. 159,000 new jobs. Many gathering around the alters in Washington and Wall-Street are elated. But all is not rosy. The increase is just enough to offset the increases in US population. Manufacturing is not up, but rather, Lost Jobs. And the number of temporary workers is up, possibly due to the approaching greed and gluttony (Christmas) season.

There is some hope, though. Between politicians not wanting to commit partisan suicide, and the Republican takeover of Congress (but not the Senate, unfortunately) many business tax increases will be put on indefinite hold - maybe. Hiring in 2011 will be largely dependent on not raising taxes on businesses.

Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister calls US policy clueless. This is the typical hubris from a continent where people riot on a regular basis over how many free meals they can get from a society that has been bailed out at least six times by the US.

Elsewhere around the world, commodities such as copper and tin, oil, and even food are rising in price at an ever faster rate, but the "numbers are fascinating" crowd still thinks deflation is a problem that is here to stay.

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