Ammunition
There are several basic types of ammunition (ammo) for handguns. In fact, there is so many different kinds of ammo, by so many different manufactures, and each having people who swear by them, that it is a very complicated part of becoming armed. As I spent far too much time researching ammo, this article is designed to cut through all the BS and give the new shooter a basic knowledge of what he needs to feed his (or her) firearm. It should also help cut down the tendency to have a hodgepodge of ammo sitting next to the gun in the home.
For us, they can be divided into four major categories.
1. Practice ammo
2. Personal Defense ammo
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
4. Exotic ammo
Then there are a couple categories for Rifles and Shotguns
5. Various Shotgun Shells
6. Hunting Rifle ammo
I may deal with these in a later article.
1. For practice ammo, cost is the main consideration. Generally many of us think of full metal jacket (FMJ) ammo, but I haven't found cheap FMJ ammo for the 38 or 357. There is also "Metal Case" or "Total Metal Jacket" ammo, as in the "Lawman" series of ammo. This is meant for indoor ranges, or any other range that is concerned with lead from regular ammo.
With the 38 or 357, (or pretty much any gun other than the 9mm for that matter) you will just have to make do with whatever you can find. Typically, Winchester White Box (WWB) 38+P Personal Defense ammo gives you the most for your money. I have seen this in both FMJ and JHP (personal defense), but the JHP is much more common. Generally I can find them in boxes of 50 for about $22. If you can find something in bulk from a well known manufacturer, and can pick up two or three hundred rounds, that would be better. If you decide you are really serious about learning, You could look into buying a case (a case is almost always 10 boxes) of ammo, which would save a few dollars, in the long run.
For the 9mm, it has the advantage of being the choice weapon of the US military, and many police departments. It is also the most popular caliber among all other shooters, all of which is to say a LOT of 9mm ammo is produced. Bulk packages of 100 ($24) and 250 ($59) rounds of 9mm FMJ ammo are commonly found in sporting goods stores and gun supply stores. Since most people (amateurs on a budget) shoot 60 to 100 rounds each time they go to the range, three trips to the range will require about 200 rounds.
2. Personal defense ammo.
By far, the most common form of personal defense ammo is some kind of jacketed hollow point (JHP) ammo, since the (typical or average) effectiveness of JHP ammo is about twice that of FMJ ammo. There are, however at least 20 different kinds of JHP ammo, and because of this, the bulk of my research time (way too much time) on guns and ammunition over the past two years has been investigating the various kinds of ammo, its cost and its effectiveness.
A good rule of thumb is: any good JHP ammo is good ammo, as long as it feeds and shoots reliably in your weapon. Really good ammo is marginally better (maybe 20% more effective) than middle of the road ammo, but might cost twice as much. And once you move beyond the average, there is all sorts of arguments as to what is the "best" personal defense ammo.
Now, a little about the names you will be hearing when reading here, or other places or discussing ammo with others.
For the powder charge, there are basically four levels of powder charge for a 38 or 357.
1. 38 Special - the lightest load.
2. 38 special +P or just 38+P is about 50% more powerful. This has been the most common load for 40 years.
3. 38+P+ somewhat more powerful than +P, but there is no exact standard. Usually about 20% more than +P. While this one will fit in a 38, firing it in a 38 may damage the weapon, therefore it is uncommon and you might never see it.
4. 357 Magnum is about 50% more powerful than 38+P. Since firing it from a 38 would seriously damage the weapon, it is about 1/4 inch longer than the 38 round, and therefore will not fit in the lighter weapon. (I highly recommend you read the section on training before buying 357 magnum ammo)
For the 9mm, the only two loads are standard and +P loads, +P having about 15% more power.
OK, so much for the powder charge, the other half of ammo is the bullet. As I have stated before, the JHP is the central figure here. The whole point of this is that they tend to spread out (expand) when they hit, making a 38 caliber round hit like a 45 caliber round, and tend to carry less energy when exiting out the back side of the target. Now, JHP's of 30 years ago were pretty much untested, and maybe they would expand, or maybe they wouldn't. Today's bullets expand much more reliably.
Bullet weight, measured in grains, is somewhat important, but only in that at the extremes it will reduce the effectiveness. In 38+P loads, 110 to 135 grain is common, and up to 148 grain acceptable. In 357 loads, the weight can rise to 158 grain. In 9mm (whether +P or not), 115 to 125 grain is common, with up to 147 grain acceptable. The heavier bullets perform a little better at longer ranges. Not usually an issue in home defense. Be aware they also kick a little harder.
There are a few good articles on the Web that discuss various personal defense ammo, here is one of the best. Mostly aimed at police or paramilitary, much of this article is not really of interest to the home defense crowd.
Before moving on to other types of ammo, just a few notes on types of ammo and some acronyms you might run across. Presented in somewhat of a logical order.
Historically the 38 Special Winchester USA 125gr +P Jacketed Hollow Point (aka, WWB) was, I think, one of the oldest of the "modern" ammo, some 70 years ago, designed as an upgrade to the rather anemic 38 Special with a solid lead bullet.
Guard Dog rounds are an Expanding Full Metal Jacket round, useful (only) in places where Hollow Point ammo has been declared illegal. Similar to a Jacketed Soft Point, which does basically the same thing.
Hydra-Shok was to be an improvement to standard JHP that would expand faster and further, but it didn't work as well as expected (worked well, just not as well as expected), possibly due to clothing or other barriers between the gun and the skin.
XTP and its cousin DPX are designed to penetrate deeper than standard JHP ammo.
Bonded rounds and "solid copper" rounds (which are still hollow point) removed the tendency for the brass jacket to shed as the bullet passes through a leather jacket.
Hornady Critical Defense added a soft plastic plug in the hollow point dramatically reducing the tendency clog with cloth as it passes through a jacket and then not expand. (Which doesn't happen very often with normal hollow points)
HST stands for Hydra-Shok Two or hi-shok-two and may be replacing the older Hydra-shok. HST's are the super expanding line of ammo. They usually expand to over double their original size. They are newer, and I haven't actually seen any performance tests yet.
All of these are considered top of the line right now, but it is easy to double the price of the ammo to get only marginal improvement: Remington Golden Saber, Speer Gold Dot, Federal HST, Winchester Ranger (PDX1), Hornady TAP/Critical Defense.
All of these rounds work well. Some better under certain circumstances, some better under other. I presented them in order, in which I would rate them, with some reservation, from least to best.
My advise is to find a brand and type you think will be happy with, shoot at least 100 rounds of it (or 20 rounds for a revolver) to insure it will fire reliably, and then stick with it, ignoring all those who will swear by some other ammo.
3. Shot, for birds, snakes, or rats.
Most calibers of handguns ammo can be gotten with a shot load. Whether called snakeshot, birdshot, or ratshot, it is pretty much the same thing. They use fairly small shot, and because the shot isn't very heavy, it won't penetrate more than an inch or two. That is fine for snakes, or rats, which generally have quite a bit to loose when shot with such a load. If you shoot a bad guy with ratshot, it will only make him mad.
Even when shooting snakes or rats with pistol loads, you have to be aware of its limitations. Standing a pistol shell next to a 20 gauge shotgun shell will provide an immediate contrast in size. Also, the rifling in the barrel, which makes a bullet fly straight, causes the shot load to spread out fast. About an inch or so for every foot. That limits the effective range of a 38 or 9mm shot shell to about 6 feet. Beyond that, most of the shot will miss the snake.
Also, be aware that, while an automatic might eject the shell from a shot-shell, it most certainly not feed them reliably, so don't mix shot and defense loads in any magazine. If you want to mix loads (something only for advanced shooters) that include shot shells, you need a revolver.
Most shot-shells are sold in boxes of ten. You need to shoot at least one or two, and keep the rest. You might want to find someone with the same caliber weapon and split a box.
4. Exotic ammo
There are several varieties of specialty or exotic ammo. I want to touch on a couple of the ones that might, at first, appeal to someone new to personal defense.
Limited Recoil or Controlled Recoil ammo is fairly similar to normal ammo, but with a lighter bullet than standard. In addition to not being very well suited to personal defense, it tends to not cycle an automatic hand gun reliably.
Frangible, prefragmented or safety slugs are made up of fragments basically glued together or in shot capsules that will remain intact until they strike an object, then they act like a shot-shell. Glaser is probably the most recognized name. They tend to be on the light side, 80 - 96 grains, and so may not be reliable in an automatic. In addition, they are less effective than a regular JHP round. Also, they cost $1.50 - $2 each, making it an expensive ammo that may not perform well.
Oddly, at least one manufacture of this kind of exotic ammo names and advertises its ammo in such a way as to make a beginner believe it is more effective than standard ammo. It is not. My best advice is: stay away from exotic ammo.
Something similar to ammo is the Snapcap. Snapcaps are not really ammo but are a training aid, and I'll deal with them under "training"
In Conclusion
You will generally need at least two kinds of ammo. Your practice ammo should be based almost entirely on cost per round. Buy enough for at least three trips to the range. Your primary defense ammo should be a trade off between cost and performance, but at least in the beginning, cost should be the main factor. Shoot at least a box of it through your gun to insure it works reliably in your particular gun. Then begin stocking up on it until your gut says you have enough. You may want to get some shot shells, if you live an an area where snakes or rats (and I mean the 2 pound variety, not mice) are frequent.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Gun advice for the newbe -1
Choosing a hand gun
This article is a spinoff from an article I read, telling gun owners what kind of gun NOT to buy for a survival gun. It occurred to me that a great many well meaning, but naive, people might not have a gun at all. While the relative calm of the 19th and 20th centuries made this responsibility less obvious, the days are coming that we need to take this responsibility more seriously. In the fierce days ahead, not having a gun is going to become more and more irresponsible.
Note: Biblical Reference Luke 24:35-38 (Young's Literal Translation)
And he said to them, 'When I sent you without bag, and scrip, and sandals, did ye lack anything?' and they said, 'Nothing.' Then said he to them, 'But, now, he who is having a bag, let him take it up, and in like manner also a scrip; and he who is not having, let him sell his garment, and buy a sword, for I say to you, that yet this that hath been written it behoveth to be fulfilled in me: And with lawless ones he was reckoned, for also the things concerning me have an end.' And they said, 'Sir, lo, here are two swords;' and he said to them, 'It is sufficient.'
The original article that got me thinking on this subject is:
Five Guns Not to Buy as Survival Firearms Monday, April 4, 2011
But becoming responsibly armed is not just a matter of going out and getting a gun. I see it as a process of acquiring the weapon, ammunition, and the know how to use them safely and effectively. This series of articles won't tell you exactly what gun to buy, but will point out factors to narrow the search. You will still need to shop around, look at a lot of different models and see how they fit in your hand.
There are really four or five questions that need to be answered
Question 1 - What is your budget?
For this article, it is assumed you don't have thousands of extra dollars to invest in guns, so most of the focus is on getting effective weapons (and learning how to shoot them) for not too much money. So quite a bit of the following advise is economically driven. Still, you can count on the cost being a few hundred dollars, at best, and it will take about a year, or more, to accomplish what I am writing about.
The following process mirrors, somewhat, what myself and some of the people I know went through over the past few years, so it is mostly a baseline, and you might be able to do better.
As a baseline, a good automatic handgun will cost around $200 or more, and a good revolver will cost around $300 or so. You will be needing at least $100 worth of ammunition and will probably need to spend about $100 or so, on going to the range. If you opt for a concealed carry permit, expect that to cost more than another $100. So the very least you will need to budget is $500, and I recommend budgeting $800 to $1000.
Question 2 - What is your previous experience?
Some of this does depend on just how new you are to shooting. Never shot? Never played with BB guns? You might want to go through a couple of preliminary steps. Have someone you trust show you how to shoot. Mostly, you want them to show you how to handle the weapon, hold it, aim it etc. The correct grip is very important. You can use a borrowed 22 to go to the range for this, just buy a box of "standard velocity" 22 ammo. Or whatever ammo is recommended by whoever loaned you the gun. Ammo in this caliber only costs 3 to 5 cents a round, so a couple hundred rounds is not too hard on the budget.
Safety is always the most important thing, and anyone new to guns must be taught how to know if a gun is loaded, and how the safety works. The first thing you must do, any time you pick up a gun, or if a gun is handed to you, is determine if the gun is loaded. Always consider it loaded until proven otherwise.
Question 3 - Do you have good grip strength?
What kind of a gun you buy will, of a necessity, depend on how much grip strength you have. Automatics are almost always a better choice, as they carry more ammo, and cost less. But you have to have enough grip strength to chamber a round easily. I know at least three people who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic pistol. For those who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic, a revolver (or wheel gun) is the correct gun to buy.
There is also a matter of simplicity. For those who find an automatic too complicated, a revolver may be the answer, though I recommend finishing this article and getting some training on an auto before making that decision.
Question 4 - How big of a gun do you need?
I ask this somewhat rhetorically, as I only recommend a couple of different calibers. (Of course, there is frame size to consider, for those whose hand is either very small or very large. But I am not addressing that, here)
For those who choose an automatic, I recommend a 9mm. If you find a really good deal on a 380, 40S&W, or a 45, you could go with one of those, but ammo will cost more, and in the case of the 380, it isn't as effective a weapon, so more range time will be in order.
For those who need a revolver, my first choice is, without a doubt, the 357. There are a few reasons for this choice. First, it is a very common revolver, firing fairly common ammunition. Second, it can also fire 38+P ammunition, which is, in fact, the most common revolver ammunition. The 357 JHP is one of the most effective handgun cartridges normally available, rivaling, even, the 44 Magnum. The less powerful 38+P is still very effective, and easier to control. It is just about equal to a 9mm cartridge.
Again, if you get a really good deal, a 44 or 38 is acceptable, but will limit your ammunition choices, and your ammunition could be considerably more expensive.
A couple of articles illustrate why I insist that a person not buy an underpowered gun.
One, from Waco TX, is somewhat humorous (note that the first news story contains a factual error, as the man had a collapsed lung, therefore the shot was fairly square, not a "grazing" wound).
Net-News Story
Same story from TV station
Not Nearly So Nice Story don't read the full version of this one unless you have a strong stomach.
The results of shooting someone with a small caliber weapon are unpredictable. In all likelihood, the results will not be immediate. But they could still very easily bleed to death later. This is the intimidation factor of a small caliber weapon, that the person will suffer serious injury and might die.
But there is a vast difference between what a robber might use to intimidate someone he doesn't think will be armed, and what a person should use to defend his or her home. The first one chooses to intimidate, the second has little choice, but to fight.
When faced with a situation where you must fight, your objective isn't that, sometime later, they might die. The objective is that they will immediately not be able to carry through with the attack.
Barrel length issues.
The length of the barrel in a handgun is quite important. Shorter barrel length might make it easier to conceal, if that should ever become an objective, but a shorter barrel length will work against you in many other ways. It generally takes between 2 and 3 inches of barrel length before the powder charge is completely burned. After that, while the gasses in the barrel are getting cooler and losing pressure, the bullet is gaining energy. So a shorter barrel means more flash and a louder bang, but a less effective bullet. And the flash and bang usually work against the shooter, making follow up shots less effective and harder to aim. As the barrel length drops below 3 inches, the powder charge doesn't complete burning, so this effect is exaggerated.
Over the past several years, substantial number of tests on compact pistols of interest have been done. Some of the results are here.
One note stands out. For the 38 snubby, "There seems to be no JHP bullet cartridge that is capable of providing a reasonable balance of adequate penetration and reliable expansion. " This is with a 2 inch barrel. It puts the 38 snubby in the same category as the 22. As in, not appropriate for home defense.
As the barrel gets longer, not only does the bullet become more effective, but it gets easier to aim the weapon accurately. Somewhere, out beyond 4 inches, takes longer to aim the weapon because the weight of the barrel slows down how fast you can bring it to aiming point, but the trade off is accuracy to a greater distance, though this is not usually an issue with home defense.
Therefore it is best to look for a weapon with a barrel between 3 and 5 inches in length.
Conclusion and afterward.
So, here, we have covered the first four basic questions that need to be answered before buying a gun, and took a brief look at one issue that isn't really a question. The next article will be about storage, carry, and about types of ammunition. Followed by one on shotguns and rifles, where we will be looking at another question or two. And lastly one about training
This article is a spinoff from an article I read, telling gun owners what kind of gun NOT to buy for a survival gun. It occurred to me that a great many well meaning, but naive, people might not have a gun at all. While the relative calm of the 19th and 20th centuries made this responsibility less obvious, the days are coming that we need to take this responsibility more seriously. In the fierce days ahead, not having a gun is going to become more and more irresponsible.
Note: Biblical Reference Luke 24:35-38 (Young's Literal Translation)
And he said to them, 'When I sent you without bag, and scrip, and sandals, did ye lack anything?' and they said, 'Nothing.' Then said he to them, 'But, now, he who is having a bag, let him take it up, and in like manner also a scrip; and he who is not having, let him sell his garment, and buy a sword, for I say to you, that yet this that hath been written it behoveth to be fulfilled in me: And with lawless ones he was reckoned, for also the things concerning me have an end.' And they said, 'Sir, lo, here are two swords;' and he said to them, 'It is sufficient.'
The original article that got me thinking on this subject is:
Five Guns Not to Buy as Survival Firearms Monday, April 4, 2011
But becoming responsibly armed is not just a matter of going out and getting a gun. I see it as a process of acquiring the weapon, ammunition, and the know how to use them safely and effectively. This series of articles won't tell you exactly what gun to buy, but will point out factors to narrow the search. You will still need to shop around, look at a lot of different models and see how they fit in your hand.
There are really four or five questions that need to be answered
Question 1 - What is your budget?
For this article, it is assumed you don't have thousands of extra dollars to invest in guns, so most of the focus is on getting effective weapons (and learning how to shoot them) for not too much money. So quite a bit of the following advise is economically driven. Still, you can count on the cost being a few hundred dollars, at best, and it will take about a year, or more, to accomplish what I am writing about.
The following process mirrors, somewhat, what myself and some of the people I know went through over the past few years, so it is mostly a baseline, and you might be able to do better.
As a baseline, a good automatic handgun will cost around $200 or more, and a good revolver will cost around $300 or so. You will be needing at least $100 worth of ammunition and will probably need to spend about $100 or so, on going to the range. If you opt for a concealed carry permit, expect that to cost more than another $100. So the very least you will need to budget is $500, and I recommend budgeting $800 to $1000.
Question 2 - What is your previous experience?
Some of this does depend on just how new you are to shooting. Never shot? Never played with BB guns? You might want to go through a couple of preliminary steps. Have someone you trust show you how to shoot. Mostly, you want them to show you how to handle the weapon, hold it, aim it etc. The correct grip is very important. You can use a borrowed 22 to go to the range for this, just buy a box of "standard velocity" 22 ammo. Or whatever ammo is recommended by whoever loaned you the gun. Ammo in this caliber only costs 3 to 5 cents a round, so a couple hundred rounds is not too hard on the budget.
Safety is always the most important thing, and anyone new to guns must be taught how to know if a gun is loaded, and how the safety works. The first thing you must do, any time you pick up a gun, or if a gun is handed to you, is determine if the gun is loaded. Always consider it loaded until proven otherwise.
Question 3 - Do you have good grip strength?
What kind of a gun you buy will, of a necessity, depend on how much grip strength you have. Automatics are almost always a better choice, as they carry more ammo, and cost less. But you have to have enough grip strength to chamber a round easily. I know at least three people who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic pistol. For those who cannot easily chamber a round in an automatic, a revolver (or wheel gun) is the correct gun to buy.
There is also a matter of simplicity. For those who find an automatic too complicated, a revolver may be the answer, though I recommend finishing this article and getting some training on an auto before making that decision.
Question 4 - How big of a gun do you need?
I ask this somewhat rhetorically, as I only recommend a couple of different calibers. (Of course, there is frame size to consider, for those whose hand is either very small or very large. But I am not addressing that, here)
For those who choose an automatic, I recommend a 9mm. If you find a really good deal on a 380, 40S&W, or a 45, you could go with one of those, but ammo will cost more, and in the case of the 380, it isn't as effective a weapon, so more range time will be in order.
For those who need a revolver, my first choice is, without a doubt, the 357. There are a few reasons for this choice. First, it is a very common revolver, firing fairly common ammunition. Second, it can also fire 38+P ammunition, which is, in fact, the most common revolver ammunition. The 357 JHP is one of the most effective handgun cartridges normally available, rivaling, even, the 44 Magnum. The less powerful 38+P is still very effective, and easier to control. It is just about equal to a 9mm cartridge.
Again, if you get a really good deal, a 44 or 38 is acceptable, but will limit your ammunition choices, and your ammunition could be considerably more expensive.
A couple of articles illustrate why I insist that a person not buy an underpowered gun.
One, from Waco TX, is somewhat humorous (note that the first news story contains a factual error, as the man had a collapsed lung, therefore the shot was fairly square, not a "grazing" wound).
Net-News Story
Same story from TV station
Police said the 41-year-old man, whose name was not released, attempted suicide by shooting himself in the chest with a .22 caliber rifle. Afterward he evidently changed his mind and drove himself to the fire station to request medical assistance. He suffered a collapse lung, but is expected to recover, police said.
Not Nearly So Nice Story don't read the full version of this one unless you have a strong stomach.
Sammie Foust had never fired a gun in her life. She aimed for the man's center of mass and pulled the trigger. It sounded like a little cap pistol. There was no recoil, no blood. She figured the gun had misfired.
The medical examiner concluded the first shot had entered his mouth, the second his heart, the third and fourth bullets his abdomen and groin. He had taken nearly an hour to bleed to death.
The results of shooting someone with a small caliber weapon are unpredictable. In all likelihood, the results will not be immediate. But they could still very easily bleed to death later. This is the intimidation factor of a small caliber weapon, that the person will suffer serious injury and might die.
But there is a vast difference between what a robber might use to intimidate someone he doesn't think will be armed, and what a person should use to defend his or her home. The first one chooses to intimidate, the second has little choice, but to fight.
When faced with a situation where you must fight, your objective isn't that, sometime later, they might die. The objective is that they will immediately not be able to carry through with the attack.
Barrel length issues.
The length of the barrel in a handgun is quite important. Shorter barrel length might make it easier to conceal, if that should ever become an objective, but a shorter barrel length will work against you in many other ways. It generally takes between 2 and 3 inches of barrel length before the powder charge is completely burned. After that, while the gasses in the barrel are getting cooler and losing pressure, the bullet is gaining energy. So a shorter barrel means more flash and a louder bang, but a less effective bullet. And the flash and bang usually work against the shooter, making follow up shots less effective and harder to aim. As the barrel length drops below 3 inches, the powder charge doesn't complete burning, so this effect is exaggerated.
Over the past several years, substantial number of tests on compact pistols of interest have been done. Some of the results are here.
One note stands out. For the 38 snubby, "There seems to be no JHP bullet cartridge that is capable of providing a reasonable balance of adequate penetration and reliable expansion. " This is with a 2 inch barrel. It puts the 38 snubby in the same category as the 22. As in, not appropriate for home defense.
As the barrel gets longer, not only does the bullet become more effective, but it gets easier to aim the weapon accurately. Somewhere, out beyond 4 inches, takes longer to aim the weapon because the weight of the barrel slows down how fast you can bring it to aiming point, but the trade off is accuracy to a greater distance, though this is not usually an issue with home defense.
Therefore it is best to look for a weapon with a barrel between 3 and 5 inches in length.
Conclusion and afterward.
So, here, we have covered the first four basic questions that need to be answered before buying a gun, and took a brief look at one issue that isn't really a question. The next article will be about storage, carry, and about types of ammunition. Followed by one on shotguns and rifles, where we will be looking at another question or two. And lastly one about training
Sunday, March 11, 2012
General Update
There isn't much to report this month in economics. Things are going much the same as they were last month. Slow growth in the economy, in all sectors of the US economy. But the government continues to spend like a drunken sailor on shore leave and both the government and the people are sliding further into debt, keeping us on a course to follow Greece into financial meltdown in a few years.
In spite of all the liberals have done, the economy is gaining, even if it is at a snails pace (200,000 is neutral).
Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000
Employers in the U.S. boosted payrolls more than forecast in February, capping the best six- month streak of job growth since 2006 and sending stocks higher.
The 227,000 increase followed a revised 284,000 gain in January that was bigger than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
The following, also, is actually good news for our economy.
The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, rose to 63.9 percent from 63.7 percent.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 233,000 in February after a revised gain of 285,000 the prior month that made it the biggest increase since February 2006. They were projected to climb by 225,000. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 31,000 after a revised 52,000 gain.
Still, at this rate, it will take something over 10 years to fully recover our employment, and 10 years will not make a scratch on our debts.
--------------------------
Moody's has cut Greece's credit rating again, citing a risk of default despite a recent debt write-off deal. Moody's cut Greece's rating to "C" from "Ca", the lowest level on its scale. The firm said on Friday: "Today's rating decision was prompted by the recently announced debt exchange proposals for Greece, which imply expected losses to investors in excess of 70%."
--------------------------
I will have an article on Smartcards and Biometrics in a few more days. This took longer to research and, while I did learn quite a bit, I have less to report than I expected.
In spite of all the liberals have done, the economy is gaining, even if it is at a snails pace (200,000 is neutral).
Payrolls in U.S. Climb 227,000
Employers in the U.S. boosted payrolls more than forecast in February, capping the best six- month streak of job growth since 2006 and sending stocks higher.
The 227,000 increase followed a revised 284,000 gain in January that was bigger than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
The following, also, is actually good news for our economy.
The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, rose to 63.9 percent from 63.7 percent.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 233,000 in February after a revised gain of 285,000 the prior month that made it the biggest increase since February 2006. They were projected to climb by 225,000. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 31,000 after a revised 52,000 gain.
Still, at this rate, it will take something over 10 years to fully recover our employment, and 10 years will not make a scratch on our debts.
--------------------------
Moody's has cut Greece's credit rating again, citing a risk of default despite a recent debt write-off deal. Moody's cut Greece's rating to "C" from "Ca", the lowest level on its scale. The firm said on Friday: "Today's rating decision was prompted by the recently announced debt exchange proposals for Greece, which imply expected losses to investors in excess of 70%."
--------------------------
I will have an article on Smartcards and Biometrics in a few more days. This took longer to research and, while I did learn quite a bit, I have less to report than I expected.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
Economy Getting Better - Maybe
OK, so the economy is getting better. Maybe.
We added 243,000 jobs last month, and 50,000 of those were in manufacturing. Those are both very good good numbers. Especially after a gain of 220,000 the month before.
But we need many months in a row of that to really begin turning around. And, in fact, about 20 years like that to get back on top of things. That is not likely to happen. In fact, it is not going to happen. Don't expect our nation to ever live on easy street like we did in the 80's and 90's. Never again. It just isn't going to happen. Of course, there is still room for some of us to make good money and live comfortably, but that is an article for another day.
The situation with Greece (and Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland) isn't crashing down around us. Yet. And in fact, they seem to be real good at putting off real progress or real disaster. Just kicking the can down the road some more. I guess they have been kicking the can down the road for many years. It looks now like they can keep doing it for several more months.
It is looking like those who purchased treasuries from the Greek government will only get back about 1/3 of what they loaned that country. An article back in late Oct said they were willing to take 1/2 but everyone kept stalling. And they are still stalling.
Until this all comes to a head, no real progress can be made in the world economy. No progress either towards gain, or towards disaster. Just stagnant.
Still, this does give us a breather. Maybe.
Related Links.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-03/payrolls-in-u-s-jumped-243-000-in-january-unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-3-.html
The gains in employment were broad-based, including manufacturing, construction, temporary help agencies, accounting firms, restaurants and retailers. The number of industries showing job gains climbed to 64.1 in January from 62.4 a month earlier.
Factory workers put in an average 41.9 hours of work each week, the most since January 1998, while overtime hours climbed to the highest since March 2007. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 50,000 in January, the most in a year.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 257,000 in January after a revised gain of 220,000 the prior month, marking the biggest back-to-back gain since March-April. It was projected to climb by 160,000.
The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- decreased to 15.1 percent from 15.2 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/europe-leaders-set-50-greek-writedown-1-4-trillion-in-debt-crisis-fight.html
European leaders cajoled bondholders into accepting 50 percent writedowns on Greek debt and boosted their rescue fund’s capacity to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) in a crisis-fighting package intended to shield the euro area.
The 17-nation euro and stocks climbed while bond spreads narrowed after leaders emerged early today from a 10-hour summit in Brussels armed with a plan they said points the way out of the quagmire, albeit with some details still to be ironed out.
Look at link vs title
U.S. Stocks Advance on Italian Optimism
By Rita Nazareth - Nov 15, 2011
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-on-concern-over-europe-s-crisis-response.html
“It was good to hear about retail sales,” Randy Bateman, chief investment officer of Huntington Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $14.5 billion. “People are getting tired of hearing about Europe. They are trying to resolve their issues. With Mario, Italy has an economist. Europe will muddle through.”
Equities recovered as Monti, an economist and former adviser to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said he’s “convinced” that the country can overcome the current crisis as he prepares to meet with President Giorgio Napolitano tomorrow to present his new government. Stocks had fallen earlier after Spain’s borrowing costs rose at an auction. Italian 10-year yields topped 7 percent and rates on French, Belgian, Spanish and Austrian debt rose to euro-era records above German bunds.
We added 243,000 jobs last month, and 50,000 of those were in manufacturing. Those are both very good good numbers. Especially after a gain of 220,000 the month before.
But we need many months in a row of that to really begin turning around. And, in fact, about 20 years like that to get back on top of things. That is not likely to happen. In fact, it is not going to happen. Don't expect our nation to ever live on easy street like we did in the 80's and 90's. Never again. It just isn't going to happen. Of course, there is still room for some of us to make good money and live comfortably, but that is an article for another day.
The situation with Greece (and Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland) isn't crashing down around us. Yet. And in fact, they seem to be real good at putting off real progress or real disaster. Just kicking the can down the road some more. I guess they have been kicking the can down the road for many years. It looks now like they can keep doing it for several more months.
It is looking like those who purchased treasuries from the Greek government will only get back about 1/3 of what they loaned that country. An article back in late Oct said they were willing to take 1/2 but everyone kept stalling. And they are still stalling.
Until this all comes to a head, no real progress can be made in the world economy. No progress either towards gain, or towards disaster. Just stagnant.
Still, this does give us a breather. Maybe.
Related Links.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-03/payrolls-in-u-s-jumped-243-000-in-january-unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-3-.html
The gains in employment were broad-based, including manufacturing, construction, temporary help agencies, accounting firms, restaurants and retailers. The number of industries showing job gains climbed to 64.1 in January from 62.4 a month earlier.
Factory workers put in an average 41.9 hours of work each week, the most since January 1998, while overtime hours climbed to the highest since March 2007. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 50,000 in January, the most in a year.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 257,000 in January after a revised gain of 220,000 the prior month, marking the biggest back-to-back gain since March-April. It was projected to climb by 160,000.
The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- decreased to 15.1 percent from 15.2 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/europe-leaders-set-50-greek-writedown-1-4-trillion-in-debt-crisis-fight.html
European leaders cajoled bondholders into accepting 50 percent writedowns on Greek debt and boosted their rescue fund’s capacity to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) in a crisis-fighting package intended to shield the euro area.
The 17-nation euro and stocks climbed while bond spreads narrowed after leaders emerged early today from a 10-hour summit in Brussels armed with a plan they said points the way out of the quagmire, albeit with some details still to be ironed out.
Look at link vs title
U.S. Stocks Advance on Italian Optimism
By Rita Nazareth - Nov 15, 2011
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-on-concern-over-europe-s-crisis-response.html
“It was good to hear about retail sales,” Randy Bateman, chief investment officer of Huntington Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $14.5 billion. “People are getting tired of hearing about Europe. They are trying to resolve their issues. With Mario, Italy has an economist. Europe will muddle through.”
Equities recovered as Monti, an economist and former adviser to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said he’s “convinced” that the country can overcome the current crisis as he prepares to meet with President Giorgio Napolitano tomorrow to present his new government. Stocks had fallen earlier after Spain’s borrowing costs rose at an auction. Italian 10-year yields topped 7 percent and rates on French, Belgian, Spanish and Austrian debt rose to euro-era records above German bunds.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
The Word is a light for my path
Many of us have seen a big ole 4 battery flashlight. The aluminum ones that were the mainstay of civil service workers and police for 40 years.
They are powerful, reliable, and last a long time.
The Scriptures are much like that big ole 4 battery flashlight. And like that big ole 4 battery flashlight, there are three things the Scriptures can be used for.
If someone pops off a verse to scold someone, that is like hitting someone over the head with that big ole 4 battery flashlight. It can be effective, but it isn't what they were designed for.
If someone pops off verses from time to time to tell others what they should think of the Bible or God, it is like shining that big ole 4 battery flashlight in people's eyes. They may see the light, but it isn't what they were designed for.
If someone shines the light down the path, they can tell a person where the path is. It can keep people on the right path.
Or, if someone has the light in their own hands, they can shine it on the path themselves (though someone may have to initially show them how to operate it, where the batteries are and the switch).
They can use the light themselves to light the path. It can keep them on the path, and keep them from harm. In their hands, it can be used for defense, for illumination, and for guidance.
That is what the Scriptures were designed for. For each of us to hold, to light the path, to give us illumination, and to keep us from harm.
But we have to grasp them, use them, and wield them our own selves.
The Scriptures are powerful, reliable, and they last a long time.
Your word is a lamp to my feet and a light to my path.
Psalms 119:105
____________
It is appointed unto man (mankind) once to die, and after that the judgment. Will you stand before God, clothed in the righteousness of Christ, or stand before him in your sin? This is the all important question.
They are powerful, reliable, and last a long time.
The Scriptures are much like that big ole 4 battery flashlight. And like that big ole 4 battery flashlight, there are three things the Scriptures can be used for.
If someone pops off a verse to scold someone, that is like hitting someone over the head with that big ole 4 battery flashlight. It can be effective, but it isn't what they were designed for.
If someone pops off verses from time to time to tell others what they should think of the Bible or God, it is like shining that big ole 4 battery flashlight in people's eyes. They may see the light, but it isn't what they were designed for.
If someone shines the light down the path, they can tell a person where the path is. It can keep people on the right path.
Or, if someone has the light in their own hands, they can shine it on the path themselves (though someone may have to initially show them how to operate it, where the batteries are and the switch).
They can use the light themselves to light the path. It can keep them on the path, and keep them from harm. In their hands, it can be used for defense, for illumination, and for guidance.
That is what the Scriptures were designed for. For each of us to hold, to light the path, to give us illumination, and to keep us from harm.
But we have to grasp them, use them, and wield them our own selves.
The Scriptures are powerful, reliable, and they last a long time.
Your word is a lamp to my feet and a light to my path.
Psalms 119:105
____________
It is appointed unto man (mankind) once to die, and after that the judgment. Will you stand before God, clothed in the righteousness of Christ, or stand before him in your sin? This is the all important question.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Passwords Hacking and Encryption
I studied encryption in the late 90's and some into the 21st century. I haven't made much mention of it here, despite the word "crypt" showing up in the title of this blog.
But with the recent hacking of the Zappos section of Amazon, I thought I would put a few comments about passwords and encryption in here. This is the first of about 4 to 6 articles I plan to write on the subject.
I would have thought the handling of passwords in the commercial world would improve over time, but alas, there is no profit incentive for things to improve. And, in fact, there is some cost involved, so it seems that most passwords today are handled in much the same way they were 10 years ago.
A little bit of history.
The first encrypted password storage system that I am aware of was crypt3. This system, while merely designed to prevent the local unassisted hacker from gaining access to passwords on a system, was very advanced for its day. The password was salted, that is, a random number was added to the end of the password. Then it was put through a fairly complex encryption formula and the result was stored, along with the salt. When you logged in, the salt was read and added to what you typed and then it was encrypted and compared with the stored value. In addition to a fairly complex encryption formula that ate up some time to compute, the salt insured (at the time) no one would build a dictionary of words and their stored values.
Earlier versions of network long on systems used a simpler formula and no salt, leaving them more vulnerable. To counter that, system administrators began insisting their users use more complex passwords.
Ideas were put forth on how to make the passwords stronger by using very sophisticated salting techniques (called stretching and strengthening), and I have seen systems that use such techniques.
I haven't studied, in detail, the current state of the systems that are in use, but I can tell you that the system of stretching and strengthening passwords that I studied 10 years ago is still considered good. And I can tell you it is not widely used. This is a sad commentary on how commerce will use a quick and dirty system rather than a good one.
So, how does this impact us today?
When a website gets hacked, the hackers often try to get a copy of the password database. This was one of the things done when Zappos website was hacked. Then they will proceed to try every conceivable password (and today, this will include foreign languages and such things as "LEET" alphabets) in an attempt at gaining access to the accounts where they may order products, change addresses, or create some other chaos.
With the current system, weak passwords will fall very quickly (even instantly) and even those with modest strength can be cracked very quickly. To resist this attack, a password must be extraordinarily long and complex. Current guidelines to government computer users who don't have "smart card" access is 14 characters, with lots of things like numbers and punctuation included. And don't use the same password for any two systems. And they want to change them every few months. This, of course, leads to writing down passwords or other such things the system administrators don't like.
In the past passwords could be tried at a rate of millions per day. Today, but using cloud computing to imitate a supercomputer, that has become billions per day.
In the past, I told people to use a secret word and either a word or some letters related to the website they are logging into. This is still good enough for things like leaving comments on product reviews or newspaper forums, but with some hackers using cloud computing to imitate a supercomputer, the threat has become much greater when there is money involved.
What can the common user do?
Well, for those of us unfortunate to not have "smart card" access, but fortunate enough not to have to deal with government administrators (or those who were trained by government), those of us who live in the real world, there is hope.
Two things provide hope for real world passwords. First is the reality that the hackers will not expend a huge amount of resources to crack every last password from a database they acquired. This isn't about national secrets, and the particular hackers we are worried about aren't in this for much more than either a quick thrill or money. So, the effort to crack passwords will be practical.
They will attack the easiest ones, and probably crack most of them. But if there are a few that stand up to that attack, they don't know if a sustained attack will yield any further results. So, at some practical point, they will give up. The bad news for people in general, is that the attack is likely to yield more than 98% of the passwords, as most will not take that much effort. But the good news for us is that it is not too hard to be in the other 2%.
In reality, most people will have to defend against two separate threats. Those threats are "shoulder surfing" and hackers. The shoulder surfer is the person who, simply observes you typing in your password and writes it down. In reality, the more common threat is they find where you wrote it down, and copy it. The hackers most of us have to contend with are very remote from us. Nigeria, China and Russia are the places that come to mind, though in reality, they are in every country in the world. But, chances are, they don't have access to your physical area. On the other hand, commercial hackers, driven by greed, have vast computer resources at their disposal.
To defend against two threats, I suggest a three step approach. To contend with the vast computational resources, create a sting of numbers and letters. These can be too long to memorize, but you can write them down (preferably were your web cam cannot clearly see them, just in case one of your videos goes "viral"). An example would be "7tPwa5" which is 6 characters long and includes upper case, lower case, and numbers. I don't include punctuation, since some sites don't allow that.
Next, you need to take care of the requirement to use a different password for each web site. I suggest, for each website, use a couple letters or a letter and number that you can easily associate with the site. For Zappos, for instance "Zs" (first and last letters) or for Amazon, you could use A6 (there are six letters in Amazon). Keep this pretty consistent, so you will remember what the method is.
Finally create a secret word. This is the only part of your password that will change from time to time, and is your primary defense against the shoulder surfer.
To put them together, use your two letter site designator, followed by the random string of numbers and letters. This would make Amazon "A67Pwa5" for the first 8 characters. Then follow that with your secret word. If "Grinch" is your secret word, that would make the result in a password of "A67Pwa5Grinch" which is 14 characters long.
You may want to change that last part from time to time, if you think someone has figured out what your secret word is, but there is generally no reason to change the rest of the process, unless you know a complete copy of one or more of your passwords has been compromised and is available to hackers.
Caviots
The methodology here may not work on many networks as many log-on programs in use defeat their own security by keeping a copy (theoretically encrypted) of your older passwords, and on the periodically required password change, will flag that you are reusing some part of your old password. While this keeping of old passwords is self defeating, it provides a lot of self aggrandizement for network administrators who think they are doing more than the next guy.
Also, some government network log-on's will flag portions of the password that appear to be a dictionary word. Fortunately, most of these networks already use smart card log-on so none of this article applies.
Links and further information.
hacking of the Zappos
http://www.techspot.com/news/47060-amazon-owned-zappos-hacked-24-million-accounts-compromised.html
http://securityxploded.com/passwordsecrets.php
In today's Internet driven world, all of us use one or other applications starting from browsers, mail clients to instant messengers. Most of these applications store the sensitive information such as user name, password in their private location using proprietary methods. This prevents hassle of entering the credentials every time during the authentication.
However it is important to know that this secret information if landed in other person's hands either accidentally or by destiny then it can easily put your privacy at risk. Some applications take utmost care to secure these sensitive information from prying eyes. But most applications use simple methods or rather obscure methods to store the credentials which can easily put your privacy in jeopardy as any spyware on your system can easily uncover these secrets. Also it is equally true with any one who has access to your system.
. . .
Here are the highlights of top features of ThunderbirdPassDecryptor which makes it stand apart from other similar tools including commercial ones.
Instantly decrypt and recover the stored encrypted mail account passwords from 'Thunderbird Password Store'
Supports recovery of passwords from local system as well as remote system. User can specify Thunderbird profile location from the remote system to recover the passwords.
It can recover passwords from 'Thunderbird Password Store' even when it is protected with master password. In such case user have to enter the correct master password to successfully decrypt the mail account passwords.
If you have set the master password for your Thunderbird, then you need to enter the same in the 'master password box'.
Passwords with simple character substitution are weak
http://optimwise.com/passwords-with-simple-character-substitution-are-weak/
and this includes hackerspeak like LEET
The fact that cloud computing can be used is found in many articles, as below, but the conclusions of most of the articles are completely wrong.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/mapping-babel-10017967/hacker-uses-cloud-computing-to-crack-passwords-10021067/
"I think that cloud cracking can be useful in the future because of its massive parallel nature. You can start a 100 node cracking cluster with just a few clicks," Roth told ZDNet UK on Tuesday.
Next time: smart cards and biometrics
But with the recent hacking of the Zappos section of Amazon, I thought I would put a few comments about passwords and encryption in here. This is the first of about 4 to 6 articles I plan to write on the subject.
I would have thought the handling of passwords in the commercial world would improve over time, but alas, there is no profit incentive for things to improve. And, in fact, there is some cost involved, so it seems that most passwords today are handled in much the same way they were 10 years ago.
A little bit of history.
The first encrypted password storage system that I am aware of was crypt3. This system, while merely designed to prevent the local unassisted hacker from gaining access to passwords on a system, was very advanced for its day. The password was salted, that is, a random number was added to the end of the password. Then it was put through a fairly complex encryption formula and the result was stored, along with the salt. When you logged in, the salt was read and added to what you typed and then it was encrypted and compared with the stored value. In addition to a fairly complex encryption formula that ate up some time to compute, the salt insured (at the time) no one would build a dictionary of words and their stored values.
Earlier versions of network long on systems used a simpler formula and no salt, leaving them more vulnerable. To counter that, system administrators began insisting their users use more complex passwords.
Ideas were put forth on how to make the passwords stronger by using very sophisticated salting techniques (called stretching and strengthening), and I have seen systems that use such techniques.
I haven't studied, in detail, the current state of the systems that are in use, but I can tell you that the system of stretching and strengthening passwords that I studied 10 years ago is still considered good. And I can tell you it is not widely used. This is a sad commentary on how commerce will use a quick and dirty system rather than a good one.
So, how does this impact us today?
When a website gets hacked, the hackers often try to get a copy of the password database. This was one of the things done when Zappos website was hacked. Then they will proceed to try every conceivable password (and today, this will include foreign languages and such things as "LEET" alphabets) in an attempt at gaining access to the accounts where they may order products, change addresses, or create some other chaos.
With the current system, weak passwords will fall very quickly (even instantly) and even those with modest strength can be cracked very quickly. To resist this attack, a password must be extraordinarily long and complex. Current guidelines to government computer users who don't have "smart card" access is 14 characters, with lots of things like numbers and punctuation included. And don't use the same password for any two systems. And they want to change them every few months. This, of course, leads to writing down passwords or other such things the system administrators don't like.
In the past passwords could be tried at a rate of millions per day. Today, but using cloud computing to imitate a supercomputer, that has become billions per day.
In the past, I told people to use a secret word and either a word or some letters related to the website they are logging into. This is still good enough for things like leaving comments on product reviews or newspaper forums, but with some hackers using cloud computing to imitate a supercomputer, the threat has become much greater when there is money involved.
What can the common user do?
Well, for those of us unfortunate to not have "smart card" access, but fortunate enough not to have to deal with government administrators (or those who were trained by government), those of us who live in the real world, there is hope.
Two things provide hope for real world passwords. First is the reality that the hackers will not expend a huge amount of resources to crack every last password from a database they acquired. This isn't about national secrets, and the particular hackers we are worried about aren't in this for much more than either a quick thrill or money. So, the effort to crack passwords will be practical.
They will attack the easiest ones, and probably crack most of them. But if there are a few that stand up to that attack, they don't know if a sustained attack will yield any further results. So, at some practical point, they will give up. The bad news for people in general, is that the attack is likely to yield more than 98% of the passwords, as most will not take that much effort. But the good news for us is that it is not too hard to be in the other 2%.
In reality, most people will have to defend against two separate threats. Those threats are "shoulder surfing" and hackers. The shoulder surfer is the person who, simply observes you typing in your password and writes it down. In reality, the more common threat is they find where you wrote it down, and copy it. The hackers most of us have to contend with are very remote from us. Nigeria, China and Russia are the places that come to mind, though in reality, they are in every country in the world. But, chances are, they don't have access to your physical area. On the other hand, commercial hackers, driven by greed, have vast computer resources at their disposal.
To defend against two threats, I suggest a three step approach. To contend with the vast computational resources, create a sting of numbers and letters. These can be too long to memorize, but you can write them down (preferably were your web cam cannot clearly see them, just in case one of your videos goes "viral"). An example would be "7tPwa5" which is 6 characters long and includes upper case, lower case, and numbers. I don't include punctuation, since some sites don't allow that.
Next, you need to take care of the requirement to use a different password for each web site. I suggest, for each website, use a couple letters or a letter and number that you can easily associate with the site. For Zappos, for instance "Zs" (first and last letters) or for Amazon, you could use A6 (there are six letters in Amazon). Keep this pretty consistent, so you will remember what the method is.
Finally create a secret word. This is the only part of your password that will change from time to time, and is your primary defense against the shoulder surfer.
To put them together, use your two letter site designator, followed by the random string of numbers and letters. This would make Amazon "A67Pwa5" for the first 8 characters. Then follow that with your secret word. If "Grinch" is your secret word, that would make the result in a password of "A67Pwa5Grinch" which is 14 characters long.
You may want to change that last part from time to time, if you think someone has figured out what your secret word is, but there is generally no reason to change the rest of the process, unless you know a complete copy of one or more of your passwords has been compromised and is available to hackers.
Caviots
The methodology here may not work on many networks as many log-on programs in use defeat their own security by keeping a copy (theoretically encrypted) of your older passwords, and on the periodically required password change, will flag that you are reusing some part of your old password. While this keeping of old passwords is self defeating, it provides a lot of self aggrandizement for network administrators who think they are doing more than the next guy.
Also, some government network log-on's will flag portions of the password that appear to be a dictionary word. Fortunately, most of these networks already use smart card log-on so none of this article applies.
Links and further information.
hacking of the Zappos
http://www.techspot.com/news/47060-amazon-owned-zappos-hacked-24-million-accounts-compromised.html
http://securityxploded.com/passwordsecrets.php
In today's Internet driven world, all of us use one or other applications starting from browsers, mail clients to instant messengers. Most of these applications store the sensitive information such as user name, password in their private location using proprietary methods. This prevents hassle of entering the credentials every time during the authentication.
However it is important to know that this secret information if landed in other person's hands either accidentally or by destiny then it can easily put your privacy at risk. Some applications take utmost care to secure these sensitive information from prying eyes. But most applications use simple methods or rather obscure methods to store the credentials which can easily put your privacy in jeopardy as any spyware on your system can easily uncover these secrets. Also it is equally true with any one who has access to your system.
. . .
Here are the highlights of top features of ThunderbirdPassDecryptor which makes it stand apart from other similar tools including commercial ones.
Instantly decrypt and recover the stored encrypted mail account passwords from 'Thunderbird Password Store'
Supports recovery of passwords from local system as well as remote system. User can specify Thunderbird profile location from the remote system to recover the passwords.
It can recover passwords from 'Thunderbird Password Store' even when it is protected with master password. In such case user have to enter the correct master password to successfully decrypt the mail account passwords.
If you have set the master password for your Thunderbird, then you need to enter the same in the 'master password box'.
Passwords with simple character substitution are weak
http://optimwise.com/passwords-with-simple-character-substitution-are-weak/
and this includes hackerspeak like LEET
The fact that cloud computing can be used is found in many articles, as below, but the conclusions of most of the articles are completely wrong.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/mapping-babel-10017967/hacker-uses-cloud-computing-to-crack-passwords-10021067/
"I think that cloud cracking can be useful in the future because of its massive parallel nature. You can start a 100 node cracking cluster with just a few clicks," Roth told ZDNet UK on Tuesday.
Next time: smart cards and biometrics
Monday, January 09, 2012
Economic Article Commentary
Well, some people are optimistic about the payroll numbers that came out this month, and some are just not too enthusiastic. Count me in that second category. The numbers are good, to be sure. Especially the manufacturing, which added 25000 jobs. But to begin a recovery, we need at least ten more months in a row with numbers like that. And that is just to begin recovery.
To see what dire straights we are in, look at this article:
Almost too Crazy to Believe
I said last year that we seem to be in the end game. I don't know if that end game will last 2 years or 20 years (although I cannot see how it could last 20 years). Of course, there is nothing to say the Rapture won't come in less than 20 minutes, but if I were to lay odds on it, I would say between 2013 and 2023 would be the most likely years for the Rapture. One thing is certain, though, if my predictions are early and we are all here in 2030, we have lost nothing. But if you don't believe, and the Lord returns when you are not ready, it will be bad for you.
Having said all of that. I find myself ready for Jesus to return, but continuing to prepare for the interim, in case He decides to wait a while.
To see what dire straights we are in, look at this article:
Almost too Crazy to Believe
I said last year that we seem to be in the end game. I don't know if that end game will last 2 years or 20 years (although I cannot see how it could last 20 years). Of course, there is nothing to say the Rapture won't come in less than 20 minutes, but if I were to lay odds on it, I would say between 2013 and 2023 would be the most likely years for the Rapture. One thing is certain, though, if my predictions are early and we are all here in 2030, we have lost nothing. But if you don't believe, and the Lord returns when you are not ready, it will be bad for you.
Having said all of that. I find myself ready for Jesus to return, but continuing to prepare for the interim, in case He decides to wait a while.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
End of Year Roundup
Well, this year has gone by so quickly there is not enough time for a proper end of year roundup. Of course, anybody knows, as we get older, our years get shorter.
At the beginning of the year I recognized that we may be entering the "end game" and the prophesies concerning the Rapture, Tribulation, and the Return of Christ seem, more than ever to be coming true. I rather suspect we have less than 20 years left in this world, though we may have less than 20 minutes also. As any Bible believing Christian will tell you: "NO man knows the day, nor the hour" that the end times will come.
Throughout most of the year I watched the world and US economy slowly tread water or move first one way then another, with no real progress. But I really spent most of the year rethinking and reorganizing my disaster plans. Oh, yes, I have disaster plans. I am not making plans to ride out Armageddon, and be a survivalist in days that look like Mad Max. But I have plans to make things go a little smoother should some little calamity come to my corner of the Earth between now and the End.
Towards the end of the year, mostly in October and November, I spent too much time following the silver market, and considering buying some silver coins. I actually tried at one point, only to have my credit card not go through, because of some computer glitch. I might try again, but I am learning not to spend too much time thinking about it.
At the beginning of the year I recognized that we may be entering the "end game" and the prophesies concerning the Rapture, Tribulation, and the Return of Christ seem, more than ever to be coming true. I rather suspect we have less than 20 years left in this world, though we may have less than 20 minutes also. As any Bible believing Christian will tell you: "NO man knows the day, nor the hour" that the end times will come.
Throughout most of the year I watched the world and US economy slowly tread water or move first one way then another, with no real progress. But I really spent most of the year rethinking and reorganizing my disaster plans. Oh, yes, I have disaster plans. I am not making plans to ride out Armageddon, and be a survivalist in days that look like Mad Max. But I have plans to make things go a little smoother should some little calamity come to my corner of the Earth between now and the End.
Towards the end of the year, mostly in October and November, I spent too much time following the silver market, and considering buying some silver coins. I actually tried at one point, only to have my credit card not go through, because of some computer glitch. I might try again, but I am learning not to spend too much time thinking about it.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Just a note about parables
The parables seem to be of interest to some people, but to be properly understood, they need to be studied as a whole. There is a principle, called hermeneutic consistency that needs to be applied.
As some examples, in all of Scripture, the New Testament Saints (after the resurrection) are never called servants, nor are we involved in the harvest. The servants of God are the Old Testament believers. New Testament Saints are called Sons, the Church, the Bride of Christ, etc.
We, Jesus and the Church, are the sowers, not the reapers. The angels are the reapers.
Earth is not the Kingdom of Heaven. The Church is not the Vineyard. We are the branch, not the olive tree, nor the vine.
Birds are never good in parables, they are always evil ones. Leaven is never good, but is the corruption that "puffs up" and makes things palatable to the carnal man.
This of course, in not all inclusive, but can give some insight to parables that otherwise can be very misleading.
----------
It is appointed unto man (mankind) once to die, and after that the judgment. Will you stand before God, clothed in the righteousness of Christ, or stand before him in your sin? This is the all important question.
As some examples, in all of Scripture, the New Testament Saints (after the resurrection) are never called servants, nor are we involved in the harvest. The servants of God are the Old Testament believers. New Testament Saints are called Sons, the Church, the Bride of Christ, etc.
We, Jesus and the Church, are the sowers, not the reapers. The angels are the reapers.
Earth is not the Kingdom of Heaven. The Church is not the Vineyard. We are the branch, not the olive tree, nor the vine.
Birds are never good in parables, they are always evil ones. Leaven is never good, but is the corruption that "puffs up" and makes things palatable to the carnal man.
This of course, in not all inclusive, but can give some insight to parables that otherwise can be very misleading.
----------
It is appointed unto man (mankind) once to die, and after that the judgment. Will you stand before God, clothed in the righteousness of Christ, or stand before him in your sin? This is the all important question.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
The Economy Still Stinks a Little
I find it amusing the markets are all up these past few days. Can anyone say "irrational exuberance"? Not only is our government still massively in debt, with no real plan in sight to fix it, but the governments of Greece and a few others are in the same condition. And not only are governments in dire condition, but the consumers and the corporations they have come to worship as their provider are in dire condition also, with balance sheets full of debt. And a meltdown in Europe is not too much of a long-shot in the next few weeks.
The fact the world economy keeps humming along is a testament to workers who get up each morning, look at the situation, and go to work anyway, even knowing they aren't making enough to do well. And it is a testament to God's Grace and Patience that he hasn't pulled the plug on this world and allowed the Evil One to come to power for that "last 7 years."
It is possible (it would fit well with my understanding of prophesy) the meltdown of the European Union could be the start of the Great Tribulation. But I think it is more likely just one more event along the way towards it, and we have a ways to go. And that is how I do my planning. If this is "the end," so be it, but if it is not, then here is the best way to handle it.
Greenspan used the term "irrational exuberance" in Dec 2006, and within a year we were into the meltdown. I was a bit disturbed Bernanke sold us a bill of goods while secretly bailing out the world banking system. We were told TARP would be $800B, and it looked on the surface it was less than that. In reality, it Was $16,000B dollars. 20 times as much. I warned repeatedly back in 2008 that it seemed to me that the Fed was printing a lot of money, but was told they weren't printing all that much. Now I see why. A great deal of it was pumped into, not our economy, but other countries economies. The globalist leaders of our nation sold us out years ago to build a new world order, and this was part of the price we will pay.
Another reason people may be overly optimistic about the economy is a drop in the unemployment rate. But that is deceptive. The rate dropped, not because more people had jobs (although payroll did go up about 120k jobs) but because a lot of people dropped out of the system. Also factory employment was down. All in all, this points to a weakening economy that is hollowing out even more.
I have begun to look into buying silver. Not much, as I don't have much money. My first attempt, a couple of weeks ago failed because of a credit card malfunction. (I think my credit union's safeguard said it didn't look like a normal purchase for me.) Last year (I think) I said silver was overpriced and should be less than $26 an ounce. This year, because of the possibility of a meltdown, I am looking at buying silver at any price under $31 an ounce. If things get to looking worse, I might go higher, but then again, the price of Gold dropped just before the meltdown in the mortgage market. I am hoping I can take advantage of such a drop.
Money is not all there is in this world, but Jesus told us to be aware of the goings on in the world. And Paul said that while we should be as harmless as doves, he also said we should be as wise as serpents.
I say be frugal with yourself and generous with others, but don't let the goings on in the world rob you blind.
Raw Link Information for this article.
irrational exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm
http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/Rising-Cash---And-Rising-Debt-Too.aspx
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/story/2011-11-26/myth-of-corporate-cash-piles/51346848/1
Secret Bailout of the World Banking System
http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
Govenrment Printing Money
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-gov-printing-more-money.html
U.S. Employment Situation Report for November (Text)
By Chris Middleton - Dec 2, 2011 7:45 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-employment-situation-report-for-november-text-.html
Following is the text of the November employment report from the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job.
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7 cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.
U.S. October Consumer Price Index Report (Text)
By Kristy Scheuble - Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-october-consumer-price-index-report-text-.html
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month's 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September. (food up, energy up less, all other up, overall, up more than payroll)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/greece-s-new-premier-says-keeping-euro-is-only-way-for-country.html
The immediate priority for Greece is securing the payment of an 8 billion-euro loan installment under a previous 110 billion-euro European Union-led rescue, Papademos said. The tranche must be paid before the middle of December to prevent a collapse of the country’s economy.
Samaras said yesterday that backing for the interim government should last no more than the three months needed to secure the financing before elections are held.
“The danger is that this is a really transitional service government, a pre-electoral government that will do all the right things to secure the loan but will be unable to promote the real reforms,” Yannos Papantoniou, a former finance and economy minister in a previous Pasok government.
The fact the world economy keeps humming along is a testament to workers who get up each morning, look at the situation, and go to work anyway, even knowing they aren't making enough to do well. And it is a testament to God's Grace and Patience that he hasn't pulled the plug on this world and allowed the Evil One to come to power for that "last 7 years."
It is possible (it would fit well with my understanding of prophesy) the meltdown of the European Union could be the start of the Great Tribulation. But I think it is more likely just one more event along the way towards it, and we have a ways to go. And that is how I do my planning. If this is "the end," so be it, but if it is not, then here is the best way to handle it.
Greenspan used the term "irrational exuberance" in Dec 2006, and within a year we were into the meltdown. I was a bit disturbed Bernanke sold us a bill of goods while secretly bailing out the world banking system. We were told TARP would be $800B, and it looked on the surface it was less than that. In reality, it Was $16,000B dollars. 20 times as much. I warned repeatedly back in 2008 that it seemed to me that the Fed was printing a lot of money, but was told they weren't printing all that much. Now I see why. A great deal of it was pumped into, not our economy, but other countries economies. The globalist leaders of our nation sold us out years ago to build a new world order, and this was part of the price we will pay.
Another reason people may be overly optimistic about the economy is a drop in the unemployment rate. But that is deceptive. The rate dropped, not because more people had jobs (although payroll did go up about 120k jobs) but because a lot of people dropped out of the system. Also factory employment was down. All in all, this points to a weakening economy that is hollowing out even more.
I have begun to look into buying silver. Not much, as I don't have much money. My first attempt, a couple of weeks ago failed because of a credit card malfunction. (I think my credit union's safeguard said it didn't look like a normal purchase for me.) Last year (I think) I said silver was overpriced and should be less than $26 an ounce. This year, because of the possibility of a meltdown, I am looking at buying silver at any price under $31 an ounce. If things get to looking worse, I might go higher, but then again, the price of Gold dropped just before the meltdown in the mortgage market. I am hoping I can take advantage of such a drop.
Money is not all there is in this world, but Jesus told us to be aware of the goings on in the world. And Paul said that while we should be as harmless as doves, he also said we should be as wise as serpents.
I say be frugal with yourself and generous with others, but don't let the goings on in the world rob you blind.
Raw Link Information for this article.
irrational exuberance
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/definition.htm
http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/Rising-Cash---And-Rising-Debt-Too.aspx
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/story/2011-11-26/myth-of-corporate-cash-piles/51346848/1
Secret Bailout of the World Banking System
http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
Govenrment Printing Money
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-gov-printing-more-money.html
U.S. Employment Situation Report for November (Text)
By Chris Middleton - Dec 2, 2011 7:45 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-employment-situation-report-for-november-text-.html
Following is the text of the November employment report from the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in retail trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Government employment continued to trend down.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job.
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
Manufacturing employment changed little over the month and has remained essentially unchanged since July. In November, fabricated metal products added 8,000 jobs, while electronic instruments lost 2,000 jobs.
Construction employment showed little movement in November. Employment in the industry has shown little change, on net, since early 2010.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, offsetting a 0.2 hour gain in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. This decline followed a gain of 7 cents in October. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.
U.S. October Consumer Price Index Report (Text)
By Kristy Scheuble - Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM CT
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-october-consumer-price-index-report-text-.html
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month's 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September. (food up, energy up less, all other up, overall, up more than payroll)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-14/greece-s-new-premier-says-keeping-euro-is-only-way-for-country.html
The immediate priority for Greece is securing the payment of an 8 billion-euro loan installment under a previous 110 billion-euro European Union-led rescue, Papademos said. The tranche must be paid before the middle of December to prevent a collapse of the country’s economy.
Samaras said yesterday that backing for the interim government should last no more than the three months needed to secure the financing before elections are held.
“The danger is that this is a really transitional service government, a pre-electoral government that will do all the right things to secure the loan but will be unable to promote the real reforms,” Yannos Papantoniou, a former finance and economy minister in a previous Pasok government.
Monday, December 05, 2011
We Will Miss Mark
Well, we buried him today.
Let's back up a bit. He was a soldier, a baseball player, and one of my coworkers. And I would call him a friend, although not a close one. We both retired out of the service, him a few years before me. We were about the same age, him a couple years older. He and I worked together daily throughout 2010, and saw each other on the job regularly after that. All and all, he was a good guy, though an ornery one. He would often take up a line of argument with one of the new employees just for the sake of seeing how they defended their positions. But most of us knew he didn't take it seriously, and half an hour later he would be helping them with some job we had to do.
Oddly, most of his family outlived him. His father passed when he was young, but his mother and 3 older sisters were among those at the funeral. He lost his wife and a daughter, each to illness a few years back. I'm not certain he ever got over that. He died suddenly, on the job, about a week ago (27 November). No one guarantees tomorrow.
He and I talked politics and about God for hours. He believed in God, was raised Catholic, but had a falling out with that Church some years back when they indicated they wanted more money out of him. The sad thing is that even though he seemed to understand the Gospel in his head, I didn't really see any indication that he ever accepted it for his own salvation. I hope I am wrong about that.
I don't normally go to funerals. I can count them on my fingers. On one hand. I went to the internment, as the actual funeral was in another town. Catholic. Their ways seem strange to me. But since we worked together for some years, and I knew this is hard on my coworkers, as well as his family, I went to this one. I don't normally go to funerals, because I have been sent to help the living. He is gone, and there is nothing more I can do for him. Maybe others of my coworkers will have questions. No one guarantees tomorrow.
Let's back up a bit. He was a soldier, a baseball player, and one of my coworkers. And I would call him a friend, although not a close one. We both retired out of the service, him a few years before me. We were about the same age, him a couple years older. He and I worked together daily throughout 2010, and saw each other on the job regularly after that. All and all, he was a good guy, though an ornery one. He would often take up a line of argument with one of the new employees just for the sake of seeing how they defended their positions. But most of us knew he didn't take it seriously, and half an hour later he would be helping them with some job we had to do.
Oddly, most of his family outlived him. His father passed when he was young, but his mother and 3 older sisters were among those at the funeral. He lost his wife and a daughter, each to illness a few years back. I'm not certain he ever got over that. He died suddenly, on the job, about a week ago (27 November). No one guarantees tomorrow.
He and I talked politics and about God for hours. He believed in God, was raised Catholic, but had a falling out with that Church some years back when they indicated they wanted more money out of him. The sad thing is that even though he seemed to understand the Gospel in his head, I didn't really see any indication that he ever accepted it for his own salvation. I hope I am wrong about that.
I don't normally go to funerals. I can count them on my fingers. On one hand. I went to the internment, as the actual funeral was in another town. Catholic. Their ways seem strange to me. But since we worked together for some years, and I knew this is hard on my coworkers, as well as his family, I went to this one. I don't normally go to funerals, because I have been sent to help the living. He is gone, and there is nothing more I can do for him. Maybe others of my coworkers will have questions. No one guarantees tomorrow.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Comic Strip - Now the Book
My favorite (secular) comic strip author, Jimmy Johnson, has released his first book in over 20 years.
You may be aware of Arlo and Janis, either from seeing it in the news paper or the link to it from the list of "other blogs I read" on the right side of this blog. He has great insights to the introspective and the humorous things in life. It is about the life of a middle aged couple with a son. The son was a pre-teen or early teen, in the strips found in this book, and is now about 22 in the current comic strip.
Before he put the book on sale, me and several others advised him to ask more for it than the $25 price he settled on. I got my copy a couple days ago, and I would give him the same advise today. It would be a bargain at $40.
The book can be ordered on Jimmy Johnson's website.
-----
As you may have seen on one of my previous posts, I will no longer be following the format I held to for the past couple of years. The posts will be more off the cuff in the next few months.
You may be aware of Arlo and Janis, either from seeing it in the news paper or the link to it from the list of "other blogs I read" on the right side of this blog. He has great insights to the introspective and the humorous things in life. It is about the life of a middle aged couple with a son. The son was a pre-teen or early teen, in the strips found in this book, and is now about 22 in the current comic strip.
Before he put the book on sale, me and several others advised him to ask more for it than the $25 price he settled on. I got my copy a couple days ago, and I would give him the same advise today. It would be a bargain at $40.
The book can be ordered on Jimmy Johnson's website.
-----
As you may have seen on one of my previous posts, I will no longer be following the format I held to for the past couple of years. The posts will be more off the cuff in the next few months.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Desperate Times
To say these are desperate times is both a "no brainer" and a bit of unmerited anxiety.
China and the U.S.
It looks more and more like China and the US will be squaring off for a fight. Not too long ago, it was the US and N.Korea. And it has always been that way between those two countries and the US. Especially in the 70's and 80's when Communist operatives in our universities and media were telling us that China had no expansionist agenda and would never be a threat to us. Purely defensive, they told us. Right.
But in the grand scheme of things, these countries are, right now, just a distraction from what everyone familiar with the Kingdom of God and Biblical Prophesy knows we should be watching (and for those who don't know, it is Israel and her enemies).
Wars and Rumors of Wars
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2066380/Will-World-War-III-U-S-China.html?ITO=1490
Energy.
While the Global Warming (oops, I mean climate change) wackoes are still telling us we are about to run out of oil and our carbon emmisions are changing the global climate, a quiet change in the crude oil and natural gas supply has now produced easily harvestable reserves that will last for more than 40 years. Maybe more than 100 years.
As for the Global Warming Wacko crowd. These are the people who look at a roller coaster and believe the people on that little train are causing it to go up and down and around. The tracks are just incidental. Man Made Global Warming or Anthropological Climate Change, or whatever you want to call it is now know to be a complete fraud. Apparently made up by some guys in a university to keep them in scholarship (or fellowship) money. It just snowballed from there, as certain LEFTIST liberals found ways to turn weak minded people's anxiety into cash.
Global Famine.
Well this one is real. But maybe not immediate. Others have been writing about the famine that I wrote about. But as I said a few weeks ago, it doesn't look like it will be a major famine next year. Of course, anything can happen, and we could face a major famine even a couple of months from now. But it currently doesn't look that way.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2011/07/15/309874/Food-inflation.htm
Israel and Islam.
This is Real. And Big.
It is looking like Israel will take a preemptive strike against Iran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8877758/Israel-believes-it-could-carry-out-strikes-on-Iran-with-under-500-civilian-fatalities.html
Economic Disaster in Europe
This one is also real. But we don't know when the meltdown will occur, or how long it will last.
The biggest problem in our economies today is that the money we need to invest or use today, was spent several years ago. This is true throughout most of the western world. The next biggest problem is that those who seem to be willing to either bail us out or buy up the shattered remains of our self destructed civilizations are our enemies.
I have said before, on this blog, that the insanity has gone on so long that a sudden removal of the insanity would be disastrous, and that continuing the insanity will be disastrous, but that we as individuals need not participate in the insanity.
I said at the beginning of the month that the banks are still safer than hiding money under your mattress, but that "the margin is getting thinner." Well, things have gotten worse, and it looks like it will only be a matter of time before there is a melt down in Europe, with the economic destruction spreading to the US. Now may be the time to begin watching the silver and gold markets and moving some money into silver and gold coins, if you haven't already. And I mean physical coins that you have in your hand, not certificates. Of course that means you will need physical security. A safe deposit box might be ideal, or not. If the melt down is severe enough, the banks will lock their doors and you will not be able to get in. I have researched home safes, and can say that anything is better than nothing, but most home safes can be broken into. What you need depends on what you have. I am fortunate, as I have very little money, I don't need much of a safe. (Maybe I should bury a coffee can in the back yard?)
We came close to a meltdown and run on the banks
By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 27, 2011 6:01 PM CT
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html
Run on the banks?
http://www.thetrader.se/2011/11/08/run-for-your-money/
24 November 2011
Don't mention the R word
By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15869945
R is for run. As in bank run.
IMF said to be readying Italian bail-out 28.11.11 @ 09:29
http://euobserver.com/19/114418
By Leigh Phillips
A note on my lack of style in this article.
I didn't have time to embed the links properly this time, I left them in the raw form I use in my notes.
China and the U.S.
It looks more and more like China and the US will be squaring off for a fight. Not too long ago, it was the US and N.Korea. And it has always been that way between those two countries and the US. Especially in the 70's and 80's when Communist operatives in our universities and media were telling us that China had no expansionist agenda and would never be a threat to us. Purely defensive, they told us. Right.
But in the grand scheme of things, these countries are, right now, just a distraction from what everyone familiar with the Kingdom of God and Biblical Prophesy knows we should be watching (and for those who don't know, it is Israel and her enemies).
Wars and Rumors of Wars
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2066380/Will-World-War-III-U-S-China.html?ITO=1490
When the U.S. Navy deployed warships in the Yellow Sea in a show of support for the South Korean government, Beijing denounced America, blandly denying North Korea’s guilt. The Chinese claimed that they were merely displaying even-handedness and restraint, but an exasperated President Obama said: ‘There’s a difference between restraint and wilful blindness to consistent problems.’
Washington is increasingly sensitive to the fact that its bases in the western Pacific have become vulnerable to Chinese missiles. This is one reason why last week the U.S. made a historic agreement with Australia to station up to 2,500 U.S. Marines in the north of the country.
Beijing denounced the deal, saying it was not ‘appropriate to intensify and expand military alliances and may not be in the interests of countries within this region’.
Energy.
While the Global Warming (oops, I mean climate change) wackoes are still telling us we are about to run out of oil and our carbon emmisions are changing the global climate, a quiet change in the crude oil and natural gas supply has now produced easily harvestable reserves that will last for more than 40 years. Maybe more than 100 years.
As for the Global Warming Wacko crowd. These are the people who look at a roller coaster and believe the people on that little train are causing it to go up and down and around. The tracks are just incidental. Man Made Global Warming or Anthropological Climate Change, or whatever you want to call it is now know to be a complete fraud. Apparently made up by some guys in a university to keep them in scholarship (or fellowship) money. It just snowballed from there, as certain LEFTIST liberals found ways to turn weak minded people's anxiety into cash.
Global Famine.
Well this one is real. But maybe not immediate. Others have been writing about the famine that I wrote about. But as I said a few weeks ago, it doesn't look like it will be a major famine next year. Of course, anything can happen, and we could face a major famine even a couple of months from now. But it currently doesn't look that way.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2011/07/15/309874/Food-inflation.htm
With grain supplies still tight and worldwide demand growing quickly, food price inflation looks set to remain high and even worsen in the years ahead.
It will likely take years of near-perfect crops to replenish global stockpiles of corn and wheat, the staples of the world food system, and minimize the risk of price spikes.
Stockpiles of corn in the United States, the No. 1 producer, are forecast to drop to 16-year lows — 870 million bushels — by summer 2012. As a percentage of use, that would be the second-tightest since the Dust Bowl devastated crops in the 1930s.
This time around, crops are historically large, but demand is also surging due to Chinese consumers and U.S. ethanol producers.
As for wheat, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects world inventories will improve by June 2012 to reach 182 million tons, up from their 26-year low of roughly 126 million in 2007-08 during the last run-up in prices. But growing demand, notably from the livestock sector, will keep prices high, as will a scarcity of high-protein, high-quality milling wheat.
Israel and Islam.
This is Real. And Big.
It is looking like Israel will take a preemptive strike against Iran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8877758/Israel-believes-it-could-carry-out-strikes-on-Iran-with-under-500-civilian-fatalities.html
Israel believes it could carry out military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and suffer fewer than 500 civilian fatalities were Tehran to retaliate, the country's defense minister said on Tuesday.
Ehud Barak raised the prospect of military action with Iran once again as he hinted that splits in the international community over imposing sanctions regarded as crippling enough by Israel could leave the Jewish state with no option but to take matters into its own hands.
Economic Disaster in Europe
This one is also real. But we don't know when the meltdown will occur, or how long it will last.
The biggest problem in our economies today is that the money we need to invest or use today, was spent several years ago. This is true throughout most of the western world. The next biggest problem is that those who seem to be willing to either bail us out or buy up the shattered remains of our self destructed civilizations are our enemies.
I have said before, on this blog, that the insanity has gone on so long that a sudden removal of the insanity would be disastrous, and that continuing the insanity will be disastrous, but that we as individuals need not participate in the insanity.
I said at the beginning of the month that the banks are still safer than hiding money under your mattress, but that "the margin is getting thinner." Well, things have gotten worse, and it looks like it will only be a matter of time before there is a melt down in Europe, with the economic destruction spreading to the US. Now may be the time to begin watching the silver and gold markets and moving some money into silver and gold coins, if you haven't already. And I mean physical coins that you have in your hand, not certificates. Of course that means you will need physical security. A safe deposit box might be ideal, or not. If the melt down is severe enough, the banks will lock their doors and you will not be able to get in. I have researched home safes, and can say that anything is better than nothing, but most home safes can be broken into. What you need depends on what you have. I am fortunate, as I have very little money, I don't need much of a safe. (Maybe I should bury a coffee can in the back yard?)
We came close to a meltdown and run on the banks
By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 27, 2011 6:01 PM CT
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income.html
The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy.This could go under "disaster prep" also
And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html
British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
Run on the banks?
http://www.thetrader.se/2011/11/08/run-for-your-money/
24 November 2011
Don't mention the R word
By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15869945
R is for run. As in bank run.
IMF said to be readying Italian bail-out 28.11.11 @ 09:29
http://euobserver.com/19/114418
By Leigh Phillips
BRUSSELS - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is preparing a multi-billion-euro rescue of Italy, reports in the Italian media on Sunday (27 November) claim.
The Washington-based lender is in talks readying a €600 billion assistance package for Rome in return for swingeing austerity and structural adjustment measures, according to an article in Italian daily La Stampa, quoting unnamed officials in the American capital.
Spain meanwhile may not need a full bail-out programme and be offered instead a credit line.
Buttressing speculation that the IMF is set to bail out the eurozone’s third biggest economy, ECB member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer was asked directly by reporters whether the IMF is preparing a programme of support for Italy, but he refused to comment.
A note on my lack of style in this article.
I didn't have time to embed the links properly this time, I left them in the raw form I use in my notes.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Change in blogging habits
I will be changing the way I do blogging in the future. For now, the main change is the articles will be more random, and probably shorter. In a short time, I will change all the commenting to "moderated," meaning that no comment will get posted unless I see it first.
This is driven by three factors. One is I am planning to move my writing to another blog (maybe in a few months or so). Two is that I don't seem to be as good as I though I might be at writing articles on time, on several subjects. So I am letting the "on time" part go away. Third is that I intend to allow people in the local area know about this blog, and I don't want my local address posted to it.
This is driven by three factors. One is I am planning to move my writing to another blog (maybe in a few months or so). Two is that I don't seem to be as good as I though I might be at writing articles on time, on several subjects. So I am letting the "on time" part go away. Third is that I intend to allow people in the local area know about this blog, and I don't want my local address posted to it.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Monthly Economics Report
All eyes are fixed on Greece and its slow downward spiral into bankruptcy. But, I think we are paying too much attention to that, and not enough to our own. President Obama is still pushing the bus (our economic future) ever closer to the abyss(the point where we, like Greece, will not be able to pay our debts and will spiral into a financial meltdown), and the Republicans in congress are still stonewalling his efforts.
In the mean time, the payroll report is out for this month. It shows that employment is down slightly(from 9.1% to 9.0%), not because of the numbers from October, but because of revisions to the numbers in August and September. September saw the addition of about 100k jobs that had not been previously reported, so the unemployment numbers were adjusted. It still stinks just a little, because manufacturing jobs for Aug and Sept are still at a net loss.
There is still some 8% (give or take some) that is under employed (working at whatever they can find) or dropped out of the job market completely. And 42% of the unemployed have been out of a job for 27 weeks or longer, meaning they will have increasing difficulty finding work and may eventually join the numbers of those who have dropped out.
Over all, the situation is still grim, just as it was two years ago and it will remain grim for more than another year.
Greece
Now, about Greece (to be followed by Spain, Portugal, Ireland, California, etc.) and the current state of the bailout. The other nations of the EU (Germany in particular) have agreed to forgive half of Greece's debt, if Greece will agree to live within its means in the future.
Most of the markets climbed with the news that the EU had came to an agreement with Greece, and felt that life could go on and they would work their way out of this mess.
Now, Greece is not certain they want to accept the deal. Well, to be more precise, a large fraction of the population, accustomed to living off the government dole, doesn't want to accept the reduction in their comfort level the deal would require. And another large fraction of Greece cheats on their taxes with an audacity not even imagined by most people.
Now, why is this important to us? There is a concern that the crisis could snowball into a run on the banks, and that could spread here. This is not a completely empty concern. The banking system in both Europe and the US is largely based on trust, backed up by nothing. And most are leveraged about 20 to 1. This means that if 5% of their customers decide to withdraw their money, the bank will collapse.
This is what happened in 1929, and is the reason the FDIC (and subsequently, the FSLIC and NCUA) was created. Except that if the panic is widespread, they are all a house of cards, and will crumble quickly.
Now, I am not trying to panic anyone. First, this is not likely to happen within the next month. Second, the likely hood of it happening within a year is fairly small. Your bank is still safer than your mattress. But the margin is getting thinner. Next year may be a different story, and I can't tell yet.
Enslavement
Some day in the future, we must be aware that our economies will try to enslave us. Read the story, in a post on "the oildrum" website, that begins with "many years ago." It wasn't really science fiction. My grandfather escaped one such camp on the west coast of the US.
While it will probably not happen with oil (since we recently discovered enough gas to last many years) it will likely happen with food and clothing.
Thus is the reason I am beginning a regular posting on food and famine.
In the mean time, the payroll report is out for this month. It shows that employment is down slightly(from 9.1% to 9.0%), not because of the numbers from October, but because of revisions to the numbers in August and September. September saw the addition of about 100k jobs that had not been previously reported, so the unemployment numbers were adjusted. It still stinks just a little, because manufacturing jobs for Aug and Sept are still at a net loss.
There is still some 8% (give or take some) that is under employed (working at whatever they can find) or dropped out of the job market completely. And 42% of the unemployed have been out of a job for 27 weeks or longer, meaning they will have increasing difficulty finding work and may eventually join the numbers of those who have dropped out.
Over all, the situation is still grim, just as it was two years ago and it will remain grim for more than another year.
Greece
Now, about Greece (to be followed by Spain, Portugal, Ireland, California, etc.) and the current state of the bailout. The other nations of the EU (Germany in particular) have agreed to forgive half of Greece's debt, if Greece will agree to live within its means in the future.
Most of the markets climbed with the news that the EU had came to an agreement with Greece, and felt that life could go on and they would work their way out of this mess.
Now, Greece is not certain they want to accept the deal. Well, to be more precise, a large fraction of the population, accustomed to living off the government dole, doesn't want to accept the reduction in their comfort level the deal would require. And another large fraction of Greece cheats on their taxes with an audacity not even imagined by most people.
It is commonplace to rail against the flaws that drove the state to bankruptcy. Statistics that betray the extent of the state’s failure are part of everyday conversation. One million people, or a tenth of the population, last year gave a backhander to the civil service to grease the wheels of bureaucracy. Only 15,000 people declared earnings of more than €100,000 in 2010 but one in 20 purchasers of £2?million houses in London lived in Greece.It shouldn't surprise anyone. They didn't get into this mess by being Puritans, willing to work long hours, live frugally, save methodically, and treat all others honestly.
Now, why is this important to us? There is a concern that the crisis could snowball into a run on the banks, and that could spread here. This is not a completely empty concern. The banking system in both Europe and the US is largely based on trust, backed up by nothing. And most are leveraged about 20 to 1. This means that if 5% of their customers decide to withdraw their money, the bank will collapse.
This is what happened in 1929, and is the reason the FDIC (and subsequently, the FSLIC and NCUA) was created. Except that if the panic is widespread, they are all a house of cards, and will crumble quickly.
Now, I am not trying to panic anyone. First, this is not likely to happen within the next month. Second, the likely hood of it happening within a year is fairly small. Your bank is still safer than your mattress. But the margin is getting thinner. Next year may be a different story, and I can't tell yet.
Enslavement
Some day in the future, we must be aware that our economies will try to enslave us. Read the story, in a post on "the oildrum" website, that begins with "many years ago." It wasn't really science fiction. My grandfather escaped one such camp on the west coast of the US.
While it will probably not happen with oil (since we recently discovered enough gas to last many years) it will likely happen with food and clothing.
Thus is the reason I am beginning a regular posting on food and famine.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Reformation Day
Reformation day passed without too much excitement. I should have written this before, but truthfully, I didn't think too much about it until a Catholic I joust with frequently made a couple of, over the top disparaging, remarks about Martin Luther.
A skirmish of words ensued, and I decided I needed to get some resources lined up, and all linked to a central place.
For those of you who are scratching your head, Reformation Day is the day that Martin Luther tacked a list of 95 theses (or grievances against the Roman Catholic Church) on the church door (or did he?), and said he would hold a public meeting the next day if anyone wanted to debate with him on any point on which they had question or difference of opinion.
No one took him up on the debate, but the Pope eventually put out the word that he was excommunicated from the Roman Catholic Church, to be considered an outlaw and should be killed, if possible. They failed to kill him, and in the following years, the Roman Catholic Church was largely removed from Germany.
It is notable that the Lutheran Church, Missouri Synod (a large grouping or convention of Lutheran Churches), is the only major branch of the old mainline Churches I can find, that has not gone into apostasy.
I found most of these by doing a search on Reformation and Protestant.
http://www.theopedia.com/Protestant_Reformation
http://www.theopedia.com/95_Theses
"Brief history in chart form of over 20 reformers from Arminius ..."
http://www.religionfacts.com/christianity/charts/protestant_reformers.htm
"An essay on the beginning of the Reformation, concentrating on Luther's reaction to the sale of indulgences and his developing the doctrine of
http://www.everythingimportant.org/theReformation/
(This is mainly a Seventh Day Adventist site, and most of the site seems to be a forum)
short outline presents key points and supportive links
http://www.ucalgary.ca/~elsegal/C_Transp/C11_Protestantism.html
Catholic Encyclopedia
http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/12700b.htm
http://www.greatsite.com/timeline-english-bible-history/martin-luther.html
On Halloween of 1517, Luther changed the course of human history when he nailed his 95 Theses to the church door at Wittenberg, accusing the Roman Catholic church of heresy upon heresy. Many people cite this act as the primary starting point of the Protestant Reformation… though to be sure, John Wycliffe, John Hus, Thomas Linacre, John Colet, and others had already put the life’s work and even their lives on the line for same cause of truth, constructing the foundation of Reform upon which Luther now built. Luther's action was in great part a response to the selling of indulgences by Johann Tetzel, a Dominican priest. Luther's charges also directly challenged the position of the clergy in regard to individual salvation. Before long, Luther’s 95 Theses of Contention had been copied and published all over Europe.
http://www.luther.de/en/wartburg.html
Luther lived incognito at the Wartburg; he called himself Junker Jörg (Knight George) and "grew his hair and a beard."
In addition, I found resources on other Protestant Movements in the Theopedia entries.
UPDATE:
historylearningsite.co.uk
The Council of Trent played an important part in determining the outcome of the Counter-Reformation. Along with the part played by the Jesuits and certain individuals, the Council of Trent was a central feature of the Counter-Reformation. But whether Trent represented a positive move by the Catholic Church remains contentious.
newadvent.org (Catholic Encyclopedia)
The nineteenth ecumenical council opened at Trent on 13 December, 1545, and closed there on 4 December, 1563. Its main object was the definitive determination of the doctrines of the Church in answer to the heresies of the Protestants; a further object was the execution of a thorough reform of the inner life of the Church by removing the numerous abuses that had developed in it.
fordham.edu
The books of those heresiarchs, who after the aforesaid year originated or revived heresies, as well as of those who are or have been the heads or leaders of heretics, as Luther, Zwingli, Calvin, Balthasar Friedberg, Schwenkfeld, and others like these, whatever may be their name, title or nature of their heresy, are absolutely forbidden.
hereiblog.com
"Most of the speakers seemed only too happy to treat Roman Catholics and Greek Orthodox as “brothers and sisters in the faith,” as easily as a Baptist might refer to a Presbyterian. Now, I trust that some RC and GOs are Christians, but such unqualified, unnuanced passing remarks effectively dismiss the Reformation and jeopardize souls. Don’t you realize the effect your passing comments have on sheep?"
thelightheartedcalvinist.com
There are many in our day who say that the Roman Catholic person is a brother with one who professes salvation through faith alone. Rome, in its own documents, denies this, using the word “anathema” toward those who disagree with certain doctrinal issues.
A skirmish of words ensued, and I decided I needed to get some resources lined up, and all linked to a central place.
For those of you who are scratching your head, Reformation Day is the day that Martin Luther tacked a list of 95 theses (or grievances against the Roman Catholic Church) on the church door (or did he?), and said he would hold a public meeting the next day if anyone wanted to debate with him on any point on which they had question or difference of opinion.
No one took him up on the debate, but the Pope eventually put out the word that he was excommunicated from the Roman Catholic Church, to be considered an outlaw and should be killed, if possible. They failed to kill him, and in the following years, the Roman Catholic Church was largely removed from Germany.
It is notable that the Lutheran Church, Missouri Synod (a large grouping or convention of Lutheran Churches), is the only major branch of the old mainline Churches I can find, that has not gone into apostasy.
I found most of these by doing a search on Reformation and Protestant.
http://www.theopedia.com/Protestant_Reformation
http://www.theopedia.com/95_Theses
"Brief history in chart form of over 20 reformers from Arminius ..."
http://www.religionfacts.com/christianity/charts/protestant_reformers.htm
"An essay on the beginning of the Reformation, concentrating on Luther's reaction to the sale of indulgences and his developing the doctrine of
http://www.everythingimportant.org/theReformation/
(This is mainly a Seventh Day Adventist site, and most of the site seems to be a forum)
short outline presents key points and supportive links
http://www.ucalgary.ca/~elsegal/C_Transp/C11_Protestantism.html
Catholic Encyclopedia
http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/12700b.htm
http://www.greatsite.com/timeline-english-bible-history/martin-luther.html
On Halloween of 1517, Luther changed the course of human history when he nailed his 95 Theses to the church door at Wittenberg, accusing the Roman Catholic church of heresy upon heresy. Many people cite this act as the primary starting point of the Protestant Reformation… though to be sure, John Wycliffe, John Hus, Thomas Linacre, John Colet, and others had already put the life’s work and even their lives on the line for same cause of truth, constructing the foundation of Reform upon which Luther now built. Luther's action was in great part a response to the selling of indulgences by Johann Tetzel, a Dominican priest. Luther's charges also directly challenged the position of the clergy in regard to individual salvation. Before long, Luther’s 95 Theses of Contention had been copied and published all over Europe.
http://www.luther.de/en/wartburg.html
Luther lived incognito at the Wartburg; he called himself Junker Jörg (Knight George) and "grew his hair and a beard."
In addition, I found resources on other Protestant Movements in the Theopedia entries.
UPDATE:
historylearningsite.co.uk
The Council of Trent played an important part in determining the outcome of the Counter-Reformation. Along with the part played by the Jesuits and certain individuals, the Council of Trent was a central feature of the Counter-Reformation. But whether Trent represented a positive move by the Catholic Church remains contentious.
newadvent.org (Catholic Encyclopedia)
The nineteenth ecumenical council opened at Trent on 13 December, 1545, and closed there on 4 December, 1563. Its main object was the definitive determination of the doctrines of the Church in answer to the heresies of the Protestants; a further object was the execution of a thorough reform of the inner life of the Church by removing the numerous abuses that had developed in it.
fordham.edu
The books of those heresiarchs, who after the aforesaid year originated or revived heresies, as well as of those who are or have been the heads or leaders of heretics, as Luther, Zwingli, Calvin, Balthasar Friedberg, Schwenkfeld, and others like these, whatever may be their name, title or nature of their heresy, are absolutely forbidden.
hereiblog.com"Most of the speakers seemed only too happy to treat Roman Catholics and Greek Orthodox as “brothers and sisters in the faith,” as easily as a Baptist might refer to a Presbyterian. Now, I trust that some RC and GOs are Christians, but such unqualified, unnuanced passing remarks effectively dismiss the Reformation and jeopardize souls. Don’t you realize the effect your passing comments have on sheep?"
thelightheartedcalvinist.com
There are many in our day who say that the Roman Catholic person is a brother with one who professes salvation through faith alone. Rome, in its own documents, denies this, using the word “anathema” toward those who disagree with certain doctrinal issues.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Jobs report stinks just a little
The markets are up a little on the news that there was a fairly good monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor last Friday. But on closer examination, I think it just stinks a little. While the private sector did create 137,000 new jobs, which is almost good (remember, we need 200,000 per month to recover), manufacturing lost 13,000. While we did make some headway last spring, overall these past 12 months, the progress has not been good at all. Recovery in total private sector jobs has been less than half of what is needed, and manufacturing is in about the same boat. So, while we are not being dragged into a second recession, we are not pulling out of this one either.
In addition, average hourly earnings has remained pretty stagnant also. While food and energy prices have gone up about 10% (very rough estimate) over the past 3 years (the reason they tell you there is no inflation is they measure your pay, not prices), wages have remained nearly the same. This means that even if you do have a job, things are not getting better.
As if all that is not enough, President Obama has proposed a half billion dollar "stimulus" plan that will likely act like throwing an anchor off the back of a boat. Sure the boat will move forwards from the stimulus caused by throwing the anchor, but then the anchor will be a drag for years to come.
The only good news about all this stagnant economic stuff (that is, if you have a steady job) is that gas prices won't be rising much in the next few months.
Meanwhile, copper, which I use as a forecaster of where manufacturing is going, has lost about 20% of its value. This is a bad thing. Since manufacturing is a large user of copper, it means manufacturing is slowing down. No matter what the ISM index says, if copper use is down, manufacturing is, or will be, slowing down. At least that is what happened in the past. It isn't that I have a crystal ball, but I have seen this before.
Some people have been saying the price of silver crashed but really all it did was lose some gains it made this past couple of years that were completely out of line with how much silver should cost. It is still over priced, if you ask me, but then again, I have said gold was over priced for five out of the last five years.
A predicted shortage of cotton has failed to materialize at this time, so goods made with cotton will remain economical for the next several months.
Other good news is, as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the anticipated worldwide famine will not develop. Not because food production is all that much better, but because it turns out that the quantity of food wasted in more affluent countries is just simply colossal, and that can absorb the losses, with just a 10% to 20% rise in prices. I will likely be writing more on famines, epidemics and other disasters soon, though, as they are not going to go away.
at all. Recovery in total private sector jobs has been less than half of what is needed, and manufacturing is in about the same boat. So, while we are not being dragged into a second recession, we are not pulling out of this one either.In addition, average hourly earnings has remained pretty stagnant also. While food and energy prices have gone up about 10% (very rough estimate) over the past 3 years (the reason they tell you there is no inflation is they measure your pay, not prices), wages have remained nearly the same. This means that even if you do have a job, things are not getting better.
As if all that is not enough, President Obama has proposed a half billion dollar "stimulus" plan that will likely act like throwing an anchor off the back of a boat. Sure the boat will move forwards from the stimulus caused by throwing the anchor, but then the anchor will be a drag for years to come.
The only good news about all this stagnant economic stuff (that is, if you have a steady job) is that gas prices won't be rising much in the next few months.
Meanwhile, copper, which I use as a forecaster of where manufacturing is going, has lost about 20% of its value. This is a bad thing. Since manufacturing is a large user of copper, it means manufacturing is slowing down. No matter what the ISM index says, if copper use is down, manufacturing is, or will be, slowing down. At least that is what happened in the past. It isn't that I have a crystal ball, but I have seen this before.
Some people have been saying the price of silver crashed but really all it did was lose some gains it made this past couple of years that were completely out of line with how much silver should cost. It is still over priced, if you ask me, but then again, I have said gold was over priced for five out of the last five years.
A predicted shortage of cotton has failed to materialize at this time, so goods made with cotton will remain economical for the next several months.
Other good news is, as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the anticipated worldwide famine will not develop. Not because food production is all that much better, but because it turns out that the quantity of food wasted in more affluent countries is just simply colossal, and that can absorb the losses, with just a 10% to 20% rise in prices. I will likely be writing more on famines, epidemics and other disasters soon, though, as they are not going to go away.
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Obama and False Christianity
A recent conversation on another forum got me thinking. The discussion was about President Obama, and his supposed christianity, as well as his animosity towards Fundamentalist Christians.
As soon as a couple of videos of Obama's speeches were posted, some of his supporters began saying they were Photoshopped, so I presented evidence from one of Obama's own speeches, and posted by his own self.
As soon as I posted it I knew there would be a problem. The typical Christian, even if they kinda know what Christianity is, cannot discern true from fake Christians. Most, even if they have spent many years in Church and looked up the verses referred to in Sunday School and in the sermon, still have little overall knowledge of the Bible.
I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record on this. Constantly harping that Christians need to dig into the Bible, but how else are we to know the true Christians from the Counterfeit s? Especially if the Counterfeits are doing what many believe are good works?
To make thinks worse, the site I referenced was from the United Church of Christ (UCC). While the "Churchs of Christ" had a good reputation many years ago (though I have heard no news lately), UCC is a different organization. Wikipedia says the "United Church of Christ" is "less historically related" and that is an understatement. One is a separatist movement, separating themselves from the mainline churches that had fallen into apostasy, the UCC is an ecumenical organization.
Now, ecumenical was once a good thing. It meant that faithful, Bible believing churches would get along. Today it is a snake in the grass, teaching there is no difference between churches even if they have renounced the Bible as the central authority, and teach that there are many ways to get to heaven.
I also noticed, as I researched the various parts of this article, that the wording of the ecumenical movement is getting more subtle. This is disturbing, as it will make it more and more difficult to spot the counterfeits without actually being inside their organizations. In addition they have been embarking on their own versions of Bible dictionaries and their own interpretation guides. I suspect it will not be long before the truth will be completely indistinguishable to those who are not already saved. And I am certain this is one of the elements that will bring the Rapture and Second Coming of Christ.
The Bible is the Word of life. As such, studying the Bible is crucial to the life and growth of every believer. -- John MacArthur
As soon as a couple of videos of Obama's speeches were posted, some of his supporters began saying they were Photoshopped, so I presented evidence from one of Obama's own speeches, and posted by his own self.
As soon as I posted it I knew there would be a problem. The typical Christian, even if they kinda know what Christianity is, cannot discern true from fake Christians. Most, even if they have spent many years in Church and looked up the verses referred to in Sunday School and in the sermon, still have little overall knowledge of the Bible.
I know I am beginning to sound like a broken record on this. Constantly harping that Christians need to dig into the Bible, but how else are we to know the true Christians from the Counterfeit s? Especially if the Counterfeits are doing what many believe are good works?
To make thinks worse, the site I referenced was from the United Church of Christ (UCC). While the "Churchs of Christ" had a good reputation many years ago (though I have heard no news lately), UCC is a different organization. Wikipedia says the "United Church of Christ" is "less historically related" and that is an understatement. One is a separatist movement, separating themselves from the mainline churches that had fallen into apostasy, the UCC is an ecumenical organization.
Now, ecumenical was once a good thing. It meant that faithful, Bible believing churches would get along. Today it is a snake in the grass, teaching there is no difference between churches even if they have renounced the Bible as the central authority, and teach that there are many ways to get to heaven.
I also noticed, as I researched the various parts of this article, that the wording of the ecumenical movement is getting more subtle. This is disturbing, as it will make it more and more difficult to spot the counterfeits without actually being inside their organizations. In addition they have been embarking on their own versions of Bible dictionaries and their own interpretation guides. I suspect it will not be long before the truth will be completely indistinguishable to those who are not already saved. And I am certain this is one of the elements that will bring the Rapture and Second Coming of Christ.
The Bible is the Word of life. As such, studying the Bible is crucial to the life and growth of every believer. -- John MacArthur
Monday, September 26, 2011
Just some updates
Just some updates on some of the things I have written about over the past few months.
The Famine I wrote about a couple of months ago will not be as severe as I first thought. There will likely be shortages, but instead of the price of food doubling, this time it is only expected to rise by about 15%.
Some tidbits as to why it isn't as bad as I thought it would be:
Corn crop not hurt as bad as expected, but will be late.
Wheat harvests also not hurt as bad as I thought.
But the biggest factor is waste. Apparently, both the US and Europe still waste a good bit more food than I thought. How much, I don't know. I am still researching that (a lot of junk to sift through on the Net). But the bottom line is that the crop loss can be easily offset, this time by reducing the waste in our systems. As these things go in cycles we should have a few more years (or not, since these things cannot really be predicted) before a really bad famine sets in.
Obvious by now, this isn't the big famine mentioned in Revelation, but I will write more on both the coming famines and the 4 Horsemen of Revelation later.
Closely related to famine is epidemic. There is a strain of Bird Flu (in India) that is beginning a breakout, but it is still unclear if it presents a pandemic threat. Remember, the time to prepare is before things like this hit the media and panic ensues. As a related note, Polio is making a comeback. The majority of the US is vaccinated, but there could easily be a spread into small segments of our population, which would cause a panic. Keep your own vaccines up to date and there should be no problems. (And that goes for your family and friends) And lastly, MRSA strains are showing up that are resistant to antibacterial ointments. These are the ones found in the typical family medicine cabinet. Time to look into old time (18th century) remedies.
On a completely different note, as I have been listening to the expository recordings made by Pastor Chuck Smith covering the whole Bible, I have realized they were done over a period of about 20 years. Makes sense. He did something like 232 of them, and no more than one per week.
The Famine I wrote about a couple of months ago will not be as severe as I first thought. There will likely be shortages, but instead of the price of food doubling, this time it is only expected to rise by about 15%.
Some tidbits as to why it isn't as bad as I thought it would be:
Corn crop not hurt as bad as expected, but will be late.
Wheat harvests also not hurt as bad as I thought.
But the biggest factor is waste. Apparently, both the US and Europe still waste a good bit more food than I thought. How much, I don't know. I am still researching that (a lot of junk to sift through on the Net). But the bottom line is that the crop loss can be easily offset, this time by reducing the waste in our systems. As these things go in cycles we should have a few more years (or not, since these things cannot really be predicted) before a really bad famine sets in.
Obvious by now, this isn't the big famine mentioned in Revelation, but I will write more on both the coming famines and the 4 Horsemen of Revelation later.
Closely related to famine is epidemic. There is a strain of Bird Flu (in India) that is beginning a breakout, but it is still unclear if it presents a pandemic threat. Remember, the time to prepare is before things like this hit the media and panic ensues. As a related note, Polio is making a comeback. The majority of the US is vaccinated, but there could easily be a spread into small segments of our population, which would cause a panic. Keep your own vaccines up to date and there should be no problems. (And that goes for your family and friends) And lastly, MRSA strains are showing up that are resistant to antibacterial ointments. These are the ones found in the typical family medicine cabinet. Time to look into old time (18th century) remedies.
On a completely different note, as I have been listening to the expository recordings made by Pastor Chuck Smith covering the whole Bible, I have realized they were done over a period of about 20 years. Makes sense. He did something like 232 of them, and no more than one per week.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Zero Gain Economy
Well, the jobs report came out riday, as usual. And as usual, it was a cold slap of reality in a warm fuzzy market that usually thrives on "you tell me no bad news and I will tell you no bad news" in order to look up.
There was zero gain, zero loss, in the overall jobs. The almost (well, not quite almost) bright spot is private hiring was up by 17,000 (we need more than 200,000 each month). The really dim spot is that manufacturing fell by 3000.
Another zero in the news was the interest rate. It is axiomatic that lower interest rates encourage economic growth, but fuel inflation. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Ben Bernanke recently stated the federal funds rate will remain at or near zero for the next two years.
While Bernanke may have prevented the US (and maybe the world) from going into the dreaded "double dip" in this recession, (and I have, from time to time, said he is probably the only guy in charge who actually know what he is doing) he doesn't have the tools to pull us out of the recession. Especially when most of those in Washington are busy trying to hang a millstone around our necks. We are still in the same condition as when I wrote, last month, that "gloomy just doesn't convey a strong enough message."
On the other hand, the assurance that interest rates will stay at or near zero for the next two years will likely be the factor that will start us into an inflationary cycle. One problem with keeping interest rates low (from a US standpoint) is it leads to a Dollar Carry problem. This is when investors can borrow money from the US at a marvelously low rate, and use it to buy bonds or other investment vehicles in Europe or Asia that pay a higher rate. To compensate for the flow of monies out of our economy, we will have little choice but to print quite a bit more, thus leading to inflation.
I am not qualified to predict how much or when this inflation will take place. It could be a year or three, and it could be 5% or 35%. I could guess two years and 20%, but that is just a guess. I will guess, also, that shortages of raw products will become a factor in a year or two, and they will lead to both inflationary pressures and slowing of the economy.
The downgrade of our national credit rating first by Moody's threat (even though they may deny it), and then by S&P, has had little impact on the overall economy. It seems they dragged their feet long enough that all the investors had already downgraded us in their minds. Still, the US treasury bond is considered the safest (really, there is no thought in the market that it is anything but 100% safe) of all investments, even though return is next to nothing.
And there is another serious threat however: public opinion seems to turn against anyone who attempts to fix our economic problems. There is two reasons for that. One is man's natural tendency to avoid anything that requires sacrifice. I mentioned this in a previous posting. The other is the press, which is doing Satan's bidding, to keep the liberals in power.
Of course, all of this seems to be in preparation for the end times. There are many who say they can see the US in prophesy. Well it is there, but not where they are looking. We are a bit player, a nobody. We are found in Ezekiel, complaining and doing nothing. A has been. Broken and sunken into depravity, we will sit on the sidelines and whine during the end times.
I don't know this for certain, of course. The timeline looked all set to go (rapture and war of Magog and all) once before, but then God raised up Ronald Reagan, and used him to set the timetable back more than 20 years. No man knows the day or the hour (and while I find it fun to guess the decade, I don't even know that for certain).
There was zero gain, zero loss, in the overall jobs. The almost (well, not quite almost) bright spot is private hiring was up by 17,000 (we need more than 200,000 each month). The really dim spot is that manufacturing fell by 3000.
Another zero in the news was the interest rate. It is axiomatic that lower interest rates encourage economic growth, but fuel inflation. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Ben Bernanke recently stated the federal funds rate will remain at or near zero for the next two years.
While Bernanke may have prevented the US (and maybe the world) from going into the dreaded "double dip" in this recession, (and I have, from time to time, said he is probably the only guy in charge who actually know what he is doing) he doesn't have the tools to pull us out of the recession. Especially when most of those in Washington are busy trying to hang a millstone around our necks. We are still in the same condition as when I wrote, last month, that "gloomy just doesn't convey a strong enough message."
On the other hand, the assurance that interest rates will stay at or near zero for the next two years will likely be the factor that will start us into an inflationary cycle. One problem with keeping interest rates low (from a US standpoint) is it leads to a Dollar Carry problem. This is when investors can borrow money from the US at a marvelously low rate, and use it to buy bonds or other investment vehicles in Europe or Asia that pay a higher rate. To compensate for the flow of monies out of our economy, we will have little choice but to print quite a bit more, thus leading to inflation.
I am not qualified to predict how much or when this inflation will take place. It could be a year or three, and it could be 5% or 35%. I could guess two years and 20%, but that is just a guess. I will guess, also, that shortages of raw products will become a factor in a year or two, and they will lead to both inflationary pressures and slowing of the economy.
The downgrade of our national credit rating first by Moody's threat (even though they may deny it), and then by S&P, has had little impact on the overall economy. It seems they dragged their feet long enough that all the investors had already downgraded us in their minds. Still, the US treasury bond is considered the safest (really, there is no thought in the market that it is anything but 100% safe) of all investments, even though return is next to nothing.
And there is another serious threat however: public opinion seems to turn against anyone who attempts to fix our economic problems. There is two reasons for that. One is man's natural tendency to avoid anything that requires sacrifice. I mentioned this in a previous posting. The other is the press, which is doing Satan's bidding, to keep the liberals in power.
Of course, all of this seems to be in preparation for the end times. There are many who say they can see the US in prophesy. Well it is there, but not where they are looking. We are a bit player, a nobody. We are found in Ezekiel, complaining and doing nothing. A has been. Broken and sunken into depravity, we will sit on the sidelines and whine during the end times.
I don't know this for certain, of course. The timeline looked all set to go (rapture and war of Magog and all) once before, but then God raised up Ronald Reagan, and used him to set the timetable back more than 20 years. No man knows the day or the hour (and while I find it fun to guess the decade, I don't even know that for certain).
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Teaching Error, the issue of writing
I recently forgot myself and made a post to a humor thread about the origin of one of the Psalms. I was roundly criticized for doing so, as I should have been, since it was outside of the topic. (So I am also guilty of 2 Tim 4:2)
But that post revealed that some Churches are still teaching an error that was considered to be common knowledge in the 19th century, and later in the 20th century, mostly among those who lacked knowledge of the history of that period, and knew even less about the Bible. There are, of course, those who deliberately propagate this myth (as a heresy) with intent to undermine the foundations of Christianity, by saying the Bible is not the Word of God, but is merely a collection of stories made up and assembled by some mystical clerics only a few hundred years BC.
It is that the Bible wasn't a written book until only a few hundred years BC. I don't know where this started, but I suspect it was by those who refused to believe, and therefore wanted to destroy the foundations of Christianity, since if the early Scriptures weren't that they say they were, and were not preserved as God promised in Isaiah, and as confirmed by Jesus, then they could say that all of the Bible is a lie.
That this should happen should be no surprise, since both Paul (verses 3 and 4) and Peter (verse 1) warned us of these false teachers. But to allow these false teachings to stand makes us a party to the lie, and allows the enemies of Christ to place a barrier between men and the understanding of God.
But that post revealed that some Churches are still teaching an error that was considered to be common knowledge in the 19th century, and later in the 20th century, mostly among those who lacked knowledge of the history of that period, and knew even less about the Bible. There are, of course, those who deliberately propagate this myth (as a heresy) with intent to undermine the foundations of Christianity, by saying the Bible is not the Word of God, but is merely a collection of stories made up and assembled by some mystical clerics only a few hundred years BC.
It is that the Bible wasn't a written book until only a few hundred years BC. I don't know where this started, but I suspect it was by those who refused to believe, and therefore wanted to destroy the foundations of Christianity, since if the early Scriptures weren't that they say they were, and were not preserved as God promised in Isaiah, and as confirmed by Jesus, then they could say that all of the Bible is a lie.
That this should happen should be no surprise, since both Paul (verses 3 and 4) and Peter (verse 1) warned us of these false teachers. But to allow these false teachings to stand makes us a party to the lie, and allows the enemies of Christ to place a barrier between men and the understanding of God.
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