A Hollow Recovery amid Job Losses

This is coming out a bit late (OK, very late), and will mark a change in my efforts to regularly forecast the economic climate. Future articles will be shorter and address only one or another item.

Optimistic chatter from Washington and Wall Street is counter balanced by the reality that job losses, and especially manufacturing job losses, are killing the American Dream. This seems to be a continuation of the last few months. There is a (well thought out) theory afloat that the recovery will be in phases, but not really recovery - Change.

There is more about job losses here. And here: look specifically at "US manufacturing statistics" and then realise that this was written in 2005 - before the collapse.

Some time ago (July), when some of the brain-dead-heads in Washington (and some in NYC) were talking about the recession being over, the smarter people on Wall Street were saying it is too early. It still is.

Among the economic indicators I watch Baltic shipping index (third graph) is beginning to show the "W" shape that I mentioned in last month's update.

Two things that few people are talking about are dragging the economy, and preventing any real recovery. One is the addiction to foreign oil. While we are still importing 70% of our oil, and still not investing much in the way of new supplies or even new refineries, China is buying up future oil production, which will again push oil prices sky high. (About $20 - $40 a year increases) As Pickens says: "China has a plan," Pickens said. "We don’t."

The other drag on the economy is the previously mentioned manufacturing job losses. While the brain-dead-heads in Washington keep measuring the service sector, as if consumption will make us rich, we keep exporting our manufacturing jobs overseas. The pundits on Wall Street keep talking about a "jobless recovery," which means if the economy recovers at all, it will again be a hollow economy. I specifically remember, some years ago, one Caterpillar May (stock owner) telling me how good it is for the US to have free trade with China, since that would lead to them buying equipment from US. Now, after we pumped billions into the Chinese economy (some of which they loaned us this past year to stabilise our financial sector) they have built their own manufacturing facilities and are building machines they used to buy from US.

More about the jobless recovery here. And a quick quote from it:

(Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Job openings in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in at least nine years, signaling the economy hasn’t improved enough to prompt companies to take on more staff.)

Although I can't find the reference right now, the real jobless rate, including people who have given up on finding a job, and those who don't qualify for unemployment is close to 17%.


Also, late breaking: China is going to be building Hummers
(Just a note that this does not affect the production of the US Army HMMWV)



There is a comical picture of our economic dilemma showing that we are counting on the unemployed to bail us out.



So, if things are so bad, why are the market numbers looking pretty good? Well, two things are in play, inflating the numbers. One is the constant pumping of extra money into the economy, mainly by way of low interest rates. The "Fed" has indicated that the current interest rate, which is indistinguishable from zero, and has been for almost a year. (Also found here)



But all this extra grease on the wheels of the economy has had a downside. The dollar has been declining for some months now, pushing up prices of commodities (like oil and gold) balancing the deflation in the economy. Of course, with material costs rising and finished goods remaining the same, the workers are obviously absorbing the loss. (also here)


As an ironic twist, some employers are pretending to have a hard time finding qualified workers. I say pretending, because they obviously are complaining that qualified applicants are taking the better paying jobs (or better work environment), and the complainers are the ones that can't get the workers.


Gold, trend lines are still rocketing upwards, and gold will be over priced for some time, unless one takes the demise of the dollar very seriously. But I don't think it will collapse entirely, since Obama's handlers in the far east (remember, the debtor is servant to the lender) want to keep it afloat.




So, What Now?

Because, as I mentioned above, the "Fed" is planning to keep interest rates low for at least another year, I will no longer be doing this article monthly, as I have been. Even thought the "markets" will seem to recover (good if you have mutual funds) the real economy will not recover for many many more months, if it recovers at all.



What to do in the mean time?


Keep working - if you have a job. Don't be afraid to take on any work that comes your way if you don't. Times will be hard for many years, and the line of work you want may never come your way again. Learn new skills. Everybody should have at least two (unrelated) job skills.


If you have money (if you can afford cable TV), buy tools for survival, in case the worst happens. And make sure you know how to use them. If you are no good with tools, you might have to barter - and find someone who has the skill.



Do not let your love grow cold. Now, to be clear, when the Bible talks about love, it is an action verb. To be specific, Love equals charity, in fact, if you look at an Old English dictionary, you will see they are synonyms. Love is a call to action.



And one last thought: hunker down. It is going to be a long and bumpy ride.

My New (used) Truck

I actually began this subject with my rant against the Consumer Reports 2007 used car buyer's guide. The reviewer of all of the smaller trucks had a bad attitude, as was evidenced by their consistent belittling of small trucks.

I recently bought a Chevy Colorado. The Consumer Reports (this link subject to change) reviewer said the four cylinder engine in the Colorado was "crude and noisy." I do not find that to be true, but I will say the transmission tends to shift into overdrive and engage the lock at too low speed. It also seems to like first gear too much. At 1500 RPM in first, it is traveling about 12 mph, and does not want to shift into second. At 46 mph, it shifts into overdrive (and the lock engages at any speed over 35), which again puts you at 1500 rpm - but with about 6 times the torque output. There is a slight, but noticeable engine vibration. I doubt this is what the reviewer was referring to (really can't figure out what he is complaining about), but a switch to prevent it from going into overdrive, or just adjusting it to shift to overdrive only at higher speed would fix this.

The Consumer Reports reviewer seemed to think that anything with less than rocket like acceleration was underpowered, but this truck has plenty of power for daily use. And that is what it is meant for. There are heavier and more powerful trucks on the market, for jobs that need heavier and more powerful trucks (my job, as an equipment maintenance person requires something heavy duty, but I drive a corporate truck for that). What I need is something that is economical. This truck gets fairly good mileage, but not as good as my 95 Isuzu. And not as good as an economy car. And the tires will be a bit more expensive to maintain. But overall, it isn't too bad.

Anyway, at this point, my biggest complaint (other than it is going to cost more to drive) is that I can't get the dome light to come on without the key in the ignition.

End of Quarter Roundup

I started doing quarterly roundups, instead of monthly, because I don't do enough blog entries on my blog to justify a monthly roundup. This quarter I started out strong, with a series of book reviews on Christianity in Crisis and followed with some stuff on economics and politics. In fact, for some months now, I have been doing a monthly economic article. Good Start.


But ultimately, between paying too much attention to national politics and some health problems (nothing I haven't had before), I have been neglecting what I should be doing with this blog. So, in the next three months, I hope to do more with Bible Studies and book reviews. And be seen less on other peoples blogs, talking about politics. If you look at my November Chronicles articles, you might see why.


Now, as in the past reviews, here are links to some articles that generated comments, followed by some stuff I got involved in on a couple other blogs, and lastly, a list of article numbers on Combat Effective that are of interest.


Sotomayor Unqualified
Bottoming out in the Recession

Other people's Blogs
Judges tend to evolve - badly.
Young people leaving their Churches
Pilgrim's Political Link
Biker Bubba's Thoughts On Palin Leaving the Governorship
Calvinism's author turns 500
Chiggers and other insects
Business Climate in Michigan is Icy
Unemployment in Michigan is growth business

List of article numbers of interest on Combat Effective.
I am too lazy to do full links to them, but
if you are really interested, I will coach on
how to get to the referenced pages.


3298 Blue Ray DVD players
3301 We now have two liberal parties
(republicans sent me a survey - w/ donation request)
3303 Can Blogs be killed by outlawing linking?
3304 Honduras, Clinton, Castro, and then Sotomayor
3305 on twitter and blogs (DW anti communist blog)
3306 the US has voted to be enslaved and impoverished
3309 bankrupting farmers, and corporate psychopaths
3310 Jury sees Rep. Jefferson taking a bribe
3312 Obama's pick for surgeon general
3313 Taxes and healthcare (and my little rant about it)
morphed into international finance
3314 Moon landing anniversary
3315 the coming war of gog and magog
3316 various topics
3317 On the demise of News Papers
and rise of "free" media detailed discussions
3318 various topics
3293 Late breaking updates to:
Note to GOP - don't compare Obama to Putin
As a nation, we are hanging in the balance
Two bills, should they pass, will bankrupt us
3321 Fannie Mae Needs more money
3322 Long detailed discussion of Cash for Clunkers
including some comparison to Unabomber predictions
3323 Combat Rob and Wife Expecting a little one
3324 Consumer bankruptcies and Credit card defaults
3325 don't let news of economic recovery lure you into spending
3330 Are we bitter, or offended, at the corruption of the system
this was moved to forums
3331 will we, or our grandchildren, pick up the tab for this mess
3333 A Josef Goebbel's recovery
3340 Ghost Fleet of the Recession - ships parked near Singapore
3348 (administrative action) User Databases scrubbed
3349 Liberals want civility
3351 Criminally Insane escapes while on field trip

Iranian Nuclear Developement

This is interesting.

Voice of America uncovered it two years ago.
http://morningcoffee.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/iran-denies-existance-of-nuke-facility/

And now we have the proof.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0926/p02s05-usfp.html

Nice.

Swine Flu is Back

With the start of the school year, the flu epidemic has renewed itself. Or epidemics. It seems there is more than one strain going around this year. And the government will have the vaccines out after the majority of the threat is passed.

At least the schools seem to be less panicky. Now they are sending individual students home instead of closing schools. There has to be a point, though, at which the school gets closed. Some studies I have read indicate that when 1% of the students have been infected, it is time to close the schools. I haven't seen any plans like that, this time.

The bottom line is: we must depend on ourselves.
What I have said about this in the past still stands.
April 29 swine-flu
May 1 swine-flu-2
May 4 swine-flu-3-panic-and-stupidity
May 15 swine-flu-from-panic-to-forgotten

the economy does a W?

While there are some who think the recession may be about over and Obama my be able to take credit, I disagree.

Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets together with the Obama administration’s "cash-for- clunkers" program and tax credits for first-time homebuyers are reviving demand. Factories and builders, which have accounted for half of all the jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007, may keep growing in coming months as sales rise.

In fact, even while that was being written, a correction was getting underway. Within hours, the S&P was back under 1000. the price of crude and gasoline dropped, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds was back under 1%.

Nothing, of course, is cut and dryad.
"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." (John Maynard Keys).

Much of the problems of the economy is hidden beneath the surface. There is a backlog of real estate in the foreclosure process that rivals the size of all the houses currently on the market today. Consumers are racking up massive credit card debt, and job losses are still mounting up, meaning that a mountain of credit card defaults are just around the corner. (numbers you may have heard - accompanied by rosy narrative that things are getting better, are a farce - the situation is just getting worse more slowly.)

In addition, the banks have been hiding weaknesses (this is in addition to the weakness caused by NOT foreclosing on delinquent accounts) through a technique called Mark to Market accounting. This is where they can estimate their holdings to be worth more than what they really are worth.

One person I should have been reading some years ago, Bill Fleckenstein predicted much of this, years before it happened. He says this is just a continuation of the bubble collapse of 2001.

What me may be facing in the next few months is a second "bottoming" of the economy, with more job losses. More market contraction. More losses in equity of most commodities. Instead of a V shaped economic chart, it will look more like a W. The Great Depression was not all one long depressed economy, but rather 3 or 4 (depending on how you look at it) serious recessions. That was GD1, and this is shaping up to be GD2, and we will likely see a round of high inflation somewhere in the mix. Or something that just looks like inflation.

being taught to be un-American

Business (and Government) team up, from time to time to teach people to trust in Big Brother and to not have do anything for ourselves.

Clark Howard has an article this month about employees who have been fired for interfering with robbers or shoplifters. Of course, the store is worried about being sued. Of course this is because the legal system is no longer interested in truth, justice or liberty. It has become only interested in refining the combative skills of the players (the attornies).

And judges are instrumental in making this so. In some cases, legal action has been brought by the government for pointing out that a particular action is unconstitutional.

bottoming out in the recession

This is a continuation of my monthly economic outlook summary. Previous economic discussion can be found by looking down the right hand side of your screen until you see "economics" and clicking on that link.

The interest rate the "fed" charges banks for overnight borrowing is so close to zero, that it is almost impossible to measure.

One of the few things Obama has done right in this stimulus stuff (and I will give credit where credit is due) is the "cash for clunkers." While it was in the Senate, both parties backed it. It has done pretty well in the first few days, and of course, now the Republicans want to kill it. Politics.

We seem to have hit bottom on this economic collapse. Maybe.

Leading indicators, such as the Baltic Shipping (global) Rail Shipping (US) and Short term interest rates all give a pretty good picture of reaching the bottom.


The road back up will be long, slow, arduous, and fraught with danger of setbacks (just as this collapse was a setback on the road to recovery from the dot-com bust. Also, I heard this morning that Japan is having trouble recovering because their industry has been hollowed out by outsourcing. (On the flip side, China Manufacturing index is way up - you do the math).

However, both oil and gas are up, not to mention the rise in the minimum wage. These will be a headwind for the economy to overcome. The stock market, the housing market (except in a few places) and the price of gold are all up slightly - but these could all go up and down two or three times in the next few months. Remember "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent (John Maynard Keys). If you want to win at the stock market, I am not your teacher.

One note on the markets that may make gold look a little more useful as a hedge against inflation, Two to five years from now, we should be looking at a pretty massive inflation rate. If the inflation rate is as high as I think it will be, it will make the current bond interest rate negative (less than inflation). This could make gold look pretty good, but you still have to get around the exchange, storage and security costs - therefore I still cannot recommend it.

A final note:
I just heard Robert Crandall (Jul 3rd, on the Kudlow report) say that "consumers are 70% of the US economy."

Folks, this is just plain wrong. We would be better off if we didn't even look at the consumption side of the economy at all. All it is is funny money.

UPDATE: Well, the one bright spot in the stimulus programs has been tarnished. Seems the government can't get even the simple things right. Worse than "offsetting some of the benefits," these delays will cause the burden to fall on small independant dealerships - a critical part of the backbone of our econmy. I have written more on Combat Effective.

Book Review 2 - Christianity in Crisis

As a refresher, here is the same intro I used before, or you can skip down about
a half dozen lines or so to get to the new stuff.

This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have read. A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."

My review of the beginning of this book is here.

Well, I finally got to the end of this book, and as I said before, it gets a little slow as you get towards the middle, but as you pass the middle Mr. Hangraaff begins showing both the theological errors promoted by the prosperity preachers (which he calls faith teachers), but also shows the contrasting theology of the Bible, when the Bible is read in context.

As you approach the end of the book, I found that I slowed down, so that I wouldn't miss any of the good stuff. He shows how to conduct your Christian studies to resist the heretics. Not just the prosperity preachers, but any other heretics that come your way.

From the Bible (read in context: Matt 7:13-29):

"Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves."

He gets into quite a bit of detail, and while I do not agree with ALL of his theology, he and I agree on the major points. In addition, the last several chapters are devoted to methods of worship and prayer and study - to inoculate yourself against these heretics. One of the highlights of this part of the book is his use of "acrostics." These are like acronyms, but are used as learning tools. For instance he uses the acrostic "M-A-P-S" for Manuscripts, Archeology, Prophesy, and Scriptural Synergy. This is one of the facets of learning to defend the faith, when non-believers come calling.

annual gas price forecast

As promised, here are my annual gas price forecasts. While I did blow it last year, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 6 years, and the one time I did blow it, if they did follow my advice by living very frugally, no harm should have come from it.

The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.22 early next May.

The ever increasing role of China, the recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will mostly cancel out the other two, leaving the economics in balance. A slow increase in consumption, coupled with some optimism in the markets, and a steadily increasing cost of production seem to be the prime factors in driving up the cost in the next several months.

Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $68 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$2.68 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.18 per gallon.

I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the prices have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use. But this year, I don't think those need be applied.

some optimism in the markets (I don't agree)

why I think economic forecasts may be overly optimistic

Bernanke Says

A Jobless Recovery - but with extra pain.

Consumer Reports disappointment

Early this year I started looking for a new (used) truck to replace the 1995 Isuzu P'up I have been driving for the past 9 years or so. One of the steps I took, to research the market, I bought a copy of Consumer Reports (2008 edition, I think). After looking through some of the write-ups, I can see one of the problems we are facing in personal transportation.

I am looking for, ideally, a small pickup with an extended cab, a 4 cylinder engine, and an automatic transmission. I thought, with the ever increasing cost of gas a few years ago (and I think someone like consumer reports would have some foresight) they would have some focus on gas mileage. No, not at all. There is a mention of mileage on only one model.

No, instead, the write ups for all small trucks read like a spoiled teenager wrote them. 4 cylinder engines are to be disdained. All pickups seem to lack horse power, which seems to be a big issue. They drive like trucks (duh), stiff and choppy. Well, dang, they are trucks. They all seem to have "inferior brakes" (I guess he is comparing them to his sports car).

And it isn't just trucks that read like a spoiled teenager. I happen to own a Hyundai Accent. Nice car, but too many bells and whistles under the hood. So I looked it up. "Back seat too small for tall people." You don't say. It IS a subcompact. "Look for a model with the optional power steering, a must have feature." WHAT! Is this guy on drugs or something? Must have? On a subcompact? My truck doesn't have a power steering.

This guy needs to be stuck behind the wheel of my old Deuce and a Half (M35) army truck for a while.

As I alluded to in the beginning of this article, this is symptomatic of the problems we, as a nation, face in personal transportation. We keep adding bells and whistles to our cars and trucks. Each and every one of these costs extra on the price of the vehicle and almost all of them cost money every time we fill up at the pump. Also, deluded by the temporary availability of cheap petroleum, we almost completely replaced the Light Utility Vehicle (named after the Chevy LUV) class of vehicles with sporty indulgences that are in many ways play-toys that look like small pickup trucks.

Finances for the Long Haul

I once said this downturn in the economy may be known as the second Great Depression, or by the symbol GD2. So for the time being I will be writing a monthly column to summarise the world economics picture as I see it.

Well, on this third monthly installment, I have to first mention that I was initially wrong about the price of gas. Rather than going up another 10 cents, it dropped several cents, and looks now like it will drop another several cents. This is doubly good, both because it will grease the way for our profits and it means that China is not as big of a threat this year as I thought. Our profit is, as always, China's loss.

But, to be fair, everything went down this past month. The dreaded "double dip recession?" Who knows. But I once said it would keep getting worse until this fall, and it now looks, again, like that may be right.

There will be more on the subject of gas prices posted under "Energy" in the last couple of days in July. This will be the month to watch oil prices, as the going price on a barrel of crude, over the course of the month of July is one of the best indicators for the price of gas next spring. Of course, there is always the fly in the ointment - amateur speculators. These are the people who drove the price to $147 dollars a barrel last year.

I would have thought most of the amateur traders and speculators would learn from getting burnt in the dot com bubble burst of 2001, and getting burnt again in the housing bubble burst of 2007, but I just heard (on CNBC Fast Money) they are still playing a significant role in trading oil futures.

There was a joke on the Net's a few years ago about where is a fool and their money when I need them. Maybe we have found where they are: day traders and the government. Both have been throwing money into the markets like drunken sailors.

The last couple of weeks, bottom dropped out of the 2-year bond market, indicating that recovery and the move into very high inflation rates now looks more than two years away, but I don't want to forecast it that far out. It is highly likely the markets will rally suddenly and catch those of us who are wary by surprise.

I am still not advocating buying gold at this time (unless the price falls below $900), but I am not advocating against it either. See the numbers here.

There is a real worry some years out that the economy will undergo a round of high inflation coupled with phony numbers from the government. This happened about 5 or so years back. As one economist put it: "there isn't any inflation, but everything costs twice as much."

My basic advice still hasn't changed any. The five rules still apply.

So buckle your seat belts, and hang on. The ride is likely to be bumpy.

Book Review 1 - Chrstianity in Crisis

This is a book review on a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog: CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY. The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, but this is the only one I have seen.

A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."

And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical?

In the past, I didn't pay much attention to television preachers, as I was too lazy to spend the time examining their doctrine. Bringing these so called christian leaders to our attention, the author exposes the cult like teachings of Kenneth Copeland, Benny Hinn, Oral Roberts, Creflo Dollar, John Hagee, and many others. He also takes to task others like Joyce Meyer and Joel Osteen, who I would consider (and I could be wrong) more of the "christianity lite" variety. All are, in one form or another, "prosperity preachers," espousing the view that we can tell God what to do.

I don't take the author's word for everything. "No teacher has a free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned" includes him. While I have not finished the book, some of what I read indicates he may have trouble interpreting Romans Chapter 8 among others.

The early chapters were hard for me to read, because I kept referring back to the "end notes" to see where he got such outrageous material. He supports each and every accusation of their heresy with citations on when and where the heretics made those statements. As the book progresses, it seems to get repetitive, but that is partially because each of the "cast of characters," as he calls them, espouses very similar viewpoints. He does, also, examine some of them from more than one angle. One irritant for me is that most of the more outrageous statements these prosperity preachers have made were in the 80's and 90's, giving them the opportunity to say that he is judging them unfairly because they have learned better since. I haven't heard any of them say that, but I do know that Jim Bakker later repented (although I don't know what he has been doing since).

Towards the middle of the book, which is where I am currently studying, he begins to compare their theology with the classical theology of the traditional Church. He supports his theological arguments well, and shows how, many times, even a shallow study of the context of the prosperity doctrine's biblical references reveals the absolute lunacy of their interpretation.

Well the book is about 400 pages, and I am only halfway through, so I should write more in the future.

Crisis in the Church

This is a combination of an initial book report, and a call to action.

There is a crisis in Christian Churches in America. Actually, it has been going on for decades, and is epidemic in many countries. Many people think this crisis is some unconfessed sin of pastors or may blame the bingo parlor, night club, strip joint, or tavern down the street. Some may think it is the stinginess of the congregants not putting their full tithe in the offering plate. All of these things may be a slight problem for your neighborhood Church, but there is a bigger crisis.

The problem comes into your home on television. No, it isn't MTV or VH1. It isn't PBS or National Geographic. It isn't the late night soft porn on many cable channels. It isn't the ever increasing sex, drugs and profanity on prime time, or the references both hidden and overt to the occult on those same shows, or on saturday morning cartoons. All of these things are bad enough, but they are the things of the world, and do not present a crisis inside the Church.

The crisis is brought into your home through the so called christian networks, and the many so called christian programs that air on sunday morning, purporting to bring the Church into your home, but are really wolves in sheep's clothing, teaching a form of new age metaphysical deism, wrapped in christian jargon, plucked at will from the Bible.

In the past, I didn't pay much attention to these television preachers, because I have learned over the years to inspect what men tell me is true, and in the area of religion, I must inspect all they tell me against the standard of the Bible. This is a lot of work, and I am somewhat lazy, so I never paid attention to them because I didn't want to have to go to all of the work to verify what they were teaching.

These so called christian leaders were brought to my attention through a book I have begun reading - a book that I more or less "stumbled across" in a Family Christian Bookstore catalog:
CHRISTIANITY IN CRISIS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

The author, Hank Hanegraaff, has quite a few books to his name, including an earlier edition of this book.

A reviewer on Amazon made the statement: "... he correctly points out that no teacher has the free hand to have his teachings go unquestioned. We should never be in the habit of receiving a teaching or teacher without examining its biblical accuracy. This book correctly points this out."

And this reviewer is completely correct. Is it no wonder that we hear those in the congregation (and those who should be in the congregation) espousing points of view that are quasi-Biblical or just plain non-Biblical? Catchy sayings and country music lyrics and the teachings of pseudo christian religions are more likely to be taken as Gospel than the Gospel itself. This is a complete disaster for the Christian Church, and needs to be dealt with in every truly Christian Church.

End of Quarter Roundup

The big stories (but not the only stories) here this past quarter have been the Swine Flu outbreak and the economy.

For some personal notes, we have been having some record breaking heat here in the middle of Texas, and this may go down as one of the hottest summers on record. South and west of me, the ranchers are in dire straights and the cities have begun to restrict water use because of drought conditions, but it really hasn't affected me personally, yet. I have been reading a book on the heresies of the "prosperity preachers" and will be doing an initial review of the book shortly. (I still plan to do one more article on the "Year of Biblical Living")

GEEK ALERT: Despite being written for a general audience the next two paragraphs are quite technical in nature. If you are a non-geek, simply ignore the terms you don't understand, and you will still get three quarters of it.

My search for new software goes on, but I have decided to use an Open Office spreadsheet for my check book register. If you are looking for good FREE office software, Open Office is my recommendation. Not yet perfect, but getting there. And so many offices now use Excel or some other spreadsheet for a general purpose tool that I recommend almost everyone learn to use it. (More on that later.)

For a Personal Information Manager, I have settled on EPIM, which has version 3.02 out. Support for Win2K is not expected to go on much longer, but the authors patched it for Win2K compatibility for this version. Now to find some good journal keeping software.

Now for some notes on my writings for the past three months: I have managed not to publish and then update any posts, but one of my political posts generated some worthwhile remarks.

I do a lot of my writing by commenting on other peoples blog entries, here are some of the more significant comments.

Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation
The linked to story here is worth reading

Economy to Shrink for "Some Time"
or "Obama's pep talker gives dismal review"

While I did not comment on this one,
it is a real good read about how some
big banks are gaming the mortgage mess.

I think I actually do more writing as comments
on Combat Effective than anywhere else.

Automakers, Bailouts, and Greed

Cowards and Sheepdogs

Dead Pirates

Daily Bad News - Should we freak out?

Mortgages Cramdowns and Contracts

Recovery, or Bear Market Rally

The Conflict between good and Evil,
the Bible and the Scammers

Conservatives don't Make Themselves Heard

Inflation, and Where does Money Come From

The People of the CombatEffective Crowd

Long winded Discussion of Political Wind shifts

The ongoing Economic Crisis

Just some political BS here

Just some economic BS here

Blue-Ray - the expensive
new toy - will people eventually buy it?

Opening up a discussion on the Happenings in Iran

A contrast on possible TARP bailouts

And there you have it. If there is any doubt, not only does this let people who use blog following and blog reading software keep up with stuff that doesn't show up on those tools, but it also ups my "update count" by one, with a lot of links. Kinda cheating, but kinda useful.

opposing traffic in the economy

Last month I said I might make a monthly entry here on the subject of the economy, and even thought it has been less than a month, I have been chomping at the bit to make this next entry.


This economy is presenting many serious paradoxes that will act like pitfalls over the next several years (actually, forever - but in a few years, some people will catch on, and compensate).

First, there is a slight up tic in some of the market indexes. Don't be fooled. As I stated on Combat Effective (ninth comment), corporations are not us. They can experience some gains without any benefit to the public at large.


Second, I have been asked why the price of gas has been going up. It is going up because demand is continuing to be high. Normally this runs up the price in May and then through June and July, the price drops a few cents. It isn't dropping this summer. In fact it raised about a dime since the end of May, and looks like it will raise another dime. But US gas consumption is mostly flat, so what is this rise all about? China.


The Chinese economy (repeatedly called "cash rich" in the media), is surging ahead with some early growth, and (as you can see from another article) they are moving to secure vital resources to insure future growth.



While we may be at the bottom (even the G8 is talking about this) , real recovery is looking even further away. Currently, there are a lot of forecasters expecting gold and the Euro to remain near flat, the pound to take a slide and the US economy to turn around. (Indeed, the dollar and pound may have already both taken a slide this past week, but it is too early to tell.) Of course, they are partially correct, and partly because in the short run, economic forecasting is somewhat a self fulfilling prophesy. But this is one prophesy that may backfire for the public at large.



Much of what looks like gain for the US economy falls into two broad categories. Increases in spending, much like an unemployed person going on a spending spree because he got a job interview. He doesn't have a job, but he feels better so he goes out and spends more money that he does not have. Second, there may be a lot of repositioning of corporations to take advantage of improving conditions in China and some other third world economies. Neither of these are good for the US public at large.



As a couple of final notes, I previously stated that unemployment wouldn't likely turn around for a year, and housing for at least two years. Well, on further thought, I would double that. Expect the job market to be dismal for at least two years, and housing prices to be down for at least four. Nothing has really changed, except my view of the timeline.



How do I get my view of the timeline. Not real scientific (I don't spend enough time on it to get any more science into it), but I look mostly at the interest rates on 6mo, 1yr, 2yr, 5yr and 10yr bonds. In (not very) recent history, they have been around .45, .9, 1.9, 2.9, 3.9 percents. respectively. I watch for trends in deviations from those numbers. In more recent times, the interest rates on the first three have been going down, and the interest rates on the last two have been steady. Therefore, I expect meaningful gains somewhere between 2 and 5 years.



As for gold, still overpriced. But, maybe a good idea anyway. If you can buy some, and hold it for at least 4 years. Of course, this entails a great deal of security, both of your financial position, and physical security. I am discussing physical gold coins, and therefore you have to have a place to store them. I would still recommend other durable things. By durable, I mean lasting more than ten years, so that rules out almost anything electronic. My choice is hand tools, but there may be other things too. A good bicycle should last more than ten years, except for the tires. You get the idea.



Well that is it, until next month.

The Bible and Heresy

I have been neglecting Bible study for the past few months. It happens from time to time for one reason or another, coupled with my work schedule - which rotates, so that it is hard for me to attend Church regularly.

I guess God wanted to get my attention in such a way that I would want to get back on track, and I am fortunate that he decided to do it in a somewhat pleasant way. Books. First, a catalog arrived with a somewhat intriguing title. Christianity in Crisis in the 21st Century. Well, I will admit that even then, I didn't really jump up and grab on. But it caught my eye with its description of preaching that undermines true biblical teaching.

Then came a second book. I order books from time to time, so from time to time Amazon sends me lists of books I might be interested in. "Jesus Interrupted." I won't link to it, since it appears from the description to be Complete Heresy. What is worse, I noticed that in May it made it to the top of the best seller list in the category: Bible and Other Sacred Texts, subcategory "Bible Study." Ok, so it is a small category and they didn't have to sell many to get to the top. But it shouldn't get anywhere close at all.

Then, a third book. "The Evolution of God." More Complete Heresy.
Again at the top of a list:
Christianity - Theology - Philosophy
"What is this coming to?," I thought.

And then I knew. I got complacent about the fight because I didn't know what I was fighting. I needed focus, so I ordered Christianity in Crisis, and opened it up. It wasn't talking about the Heresy I thought it would, after the 2nd and 3rd books that God sent my way, but it was about one I have been trying to deal with from time to time for the past couple of years.

There Will be More on this later.
----
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend.
Inside of a dog, it is too dark to read -- Groucho Marx

remember Tiananmen

Tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of the massacre.

For 15years I tried to find stuff made in the USA, or at least, not made in China. It seems we may have lost the war. They own our debt, and they are our main manufacturing base. I have determined that I cannot change this by myself, and don't try too hard any more to find non chinese made items.

Let us not forget, however that China has not changed. The still attack, and fund others who attack our military, they still use prison labor. They still persecute Christians. They still export poisoned food and baby toys to the US on a regular basis. They still support N.K. They are still the biggest exporters of pirated music, games, and movies (leading to our own government taking draconian measures against its own citizens).

But it is the US government's policy - with support of virtually every congressional district in the US - to support and befriend the chinese government. Under these conditions, I can no longer afford to worry about the trade imbalance or any other hostile acts against the US. I will continue to speak up, and if the US someday wants to elect leaders who actually support their own citizens against the China threat, I will still be here.

tunring the corner

A corner may have been turned, on the economy. I have been watching the bond markets, and have been predicting the economy will bottom this fall and begin recovery in a couple of years.



Well, I may have been off a little on the bottoming of the economy. The dry goods shipping index, probably the fastest reliable index of the world economy did a turnaround this month. We are still facing a long recessionary economy, with unemployment not turning around for at least a year, and housing prices not for at least another two years. (Take a look at the difference between the one year, two year, and five year bond interest rates.)



We can next expect a round of high (I won't call it hyper) inflation. More than 30%. Probably more than 60%. But spread out over a few years. I don't know if this will be 20% each year for 3 years or 12% each year for 5 years, but I think it will be somewhere around that three year scenario. So you now have permission to hoard (save) money. And you have permission to move to higher tax brackets, since your tax credits and deductions won't be worth as much. We get this compliments of our government (under both Bush and Obama) printing lots of money.



What I recommend, instead, is to buy things of lasting value, when you have the money. Things like quality hand tools (I no longer really care if they are made in USA, since Stanley started making them in China - that was the last straw), or a good touring bike, that you have already had your eyes on. I am not advocating gold coins at this time, since the price is about 15% over what it should be, and I would never advocate diamonds or any other jewelry type items. (Pretties, no matter how much the girls like them, are a loser's game.)



I will probably will start visiting this subject approximately monthly.

Democrats - Lies, Corruption, and FlipFlops

I find it seriously annoying that I spend so much time on this subject, but the corruption and damage to our nation has just been breathtaking.



One of the leading figures in the Democratic party, Nancy Pelosi has been lying about knowing that the CIA's aggressive interrogations were going on. And what a shame, those interrogations , while bordering on torture, may have saved thousands of lives.
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2009/05/nancy-pelosi-is-lying.html




The Democrat controlled press has been covering up the roots of the Mortgage Meltdown
The following links are about the same.

Obama's Complicity1 and Obama's Complicity2

This one gives a little more detail on ACORN's Complicity

This one shows that liberals, encouraging the poor to live beyond their means by insulating the loan brokers from the risk, was a primary cause of the meltdown, and that the Bush administration warned of the impending collapse.

So, why weren't the warnings heeded? Maybe because Barny Franks prevented the Bush administration from altering Freddie Mac's course by calling it racism.

And now, after the Mexican government, the press, and Obama lied about 90% (the real number is about 17%) of drug cartel's guns coming from the US, so Obama sent hundreds of agents to find them, but of course, they didn't find very many, cause they don't exist. (sadly, this last link comes from AP, and so it will probably disappear - but I hope I can find a more permanent one later.)

The only good news lately is that Obama has joined the waffle house bunch as he FlipFlops on Tribunals: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alc4wiFEM0hU&refer=home

UPDATE: A little updating on that Mexican Gun stuff.
Keeping in mind that "FactCheck" is a liberal biased org that will do anything it can get away with to undermine us, they say the numbers are somewhere in between.
Also, from Opposing Views.

Swine Flu - From Panic to Forgotten

Well, the panic seems to be over for now. But now, is swine flu forgotten? That isn't much better. There will be other pandemics, and some of the things that could be learned from this one could be useful in the next one.

First, you need to prepare for a pandemic before it gets much news attention. Maybe before the first case. Do the simple stuff, have some extra soap and other supplies on hand. Get in the habit of washing your hands any time you come into your house from any public place.

As for society, we need to develop clear guidelines. This time around we closed schools where there was no outbreak, and every state and county had a different standard for what would be released about cases in their area. I would recommend that schools close after the first confirmed case, or after 1% of the school comes down with suspected cases. Of course, there will be people who think the action is too slow, but we have to be practical.

As for information dissemination, I would say that we should publish any county where a case has been found, and the school district if they attend a school. Maybe we need some standard for telling how many cases are confirmed or suspected, but I am not sure what that standard should be.

And we need to develop clear guidelines about the emergency issuing, safeguarding, and tracking of medicines. Especially antibiotics and antivirals.

Despite the lack of attention it is getting since everybody got interested in Nancy Pelosi's denial of knowing about our interragation techniques, let's not completely forget about this pandemic, especially since it IS still going on.
.

Swine Flu 3 panic and stupidity

One week after the swine flu burst onto the public scene, the public seems to be in full blown panic mode. I just saw on the news that school closings in TX are double the known cases of the virus, meaning that most of the schools closed have not experianced an outbreak. Public events and entire sports venues canceled. (OK, I heard that last cancelation got nixed)

There may be some signs that the panic is slowing, but around the corner is a whole new outbreak to panic about. Again, closing schools, canceling events or otherwise radically changing your behaviour before the first case in your area is panic. And the next panic, already underway, about the new strain of flu, already found in Canada, may severly damage and entire segment of the economy. One more time: you can't get this from eating pork (unless you are eating a live pig - and then I think the pig would likely bite you back) .

Here is a good resource for information on this flu pandemic. One of the articles about the pandemic panic says it well:

"When a pandemic hits, you deal with it using the resources you've got. Like an unexpected invasion, it's a "come as you are" event. The trick is to foresee the pandemic and to build up the personnel, equipment, and organization to stop it.

But if your response to the threat of pandemic is to be stupidly sanctimonious, all your planning will be in vain."

Good wording. Overall though, on a personal level, what the government or public at large does will have little effect on whether you get the flu or not (though it may delay you getting it for some weeks). Your own behaviour will be the biggest factor in whether you get it, that and total random chance. Using good sence, like washing hands and keeping your kitchen area clean, will go a long way. Other than that, your best bet is to be prepared in case it does come to your house.

Swine Flu 2

What a difference 2 days makes. Now we have panic all across the US about an epidemic that will likely not be much worse than the seasonal flu that comes around every year.

I warned against panic three times in my previous article, but I would give President Obama a C- for his handling of this issue, since I have not heard him warn against panic.

Let me be clear. The closing of schools where there have not yet been any cases, and canceling of public events where there is not already large numbers of cases is panic, and is irrational. What is the goal of closing public schools that have not yet seen cases of the flu? They will be behind in their work and have clean and steril desks for when the flu does show up. The flu will have the best of all environments to operate in, since it will not have to compete with the normal flora and everyone will be behind in their work, and so will not dare take another day off, untill the symptoms are unmistakable and they have passed it on to several others.

I made the statement that everyone should have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap in case there is panic buying. Don't go overboard, as some people did in previous crises. I found an interesting article about a panic in Oct 62 that could shed some light on that. Again, don't panic.

Swine Flu

Well, an epidemic of swine flue in Mexico is all set to take off in a pandemic, with massive consequenses here in the US. Should we panic? No, of course not, but some precautions are in order. The epidemic will likely be under way, in a big way, before the end of May. The government will likely be ready for it in September. So, the real answer in handling this emergency (like any other emergency) is with the indevidual citizens.

First a couple of MainStreamMedia articles discussing this.
General discussion on what the government is doing.
OK, OK, it is really a campaign ad for Obama,
I guess the author really really likes him.
An article, like what I always say: Don't Panic
And an article showing preparedness in government is lacking

The fist thing to understand about this virus is that you can't get it from eating pork. Unless you are eating a live pig. The virus mainly travels by skin contact, like any other flu virus. While face masks may provide some protection, they are not your best line of defense.

Your best line of defense is to wash you hands, often. Especially every time you walk through the door into your own home from any public place.

And since it is always possible that the local supermarket stocker will get the flu or panic buying will empty the shelves, have at least a few weeks supply of food and soap on hand during this crises.

Book Review

I finished reading the book "The Year of Living Biblically" and more than before, I think this is a book that every Christian should read. While the author is a Jew, and not really even a believing Jew, he does have some insights to our faith, the Bible and our view of the view of the world. Some insights that most of us don't get. Like the Sabbath. This is something he really gets; more so than most Christians.

This guy spends a year trying to follow everything in the Bible, and in the process sets out to learn as much as possible about the Bible, and every sect of Jewish and Christian religion. While he still misses the main point about the Bible (and many, many christians do also) there is much to be learned, both about the Bible, and about ourselves. Like the taking the Bible literally. He assembled a bookshelf of materials, mostly arranged from left (everything is figurative) to right (as much as possible is literal) to mirror the liberalism or conservativeness of the authors. And Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are not all the way to the right edge. Far from it. (As a side note, I learned after Jerry Falwell's death, not to believe what the press says about our Christian leaders)

This is the third, but not the last time I will write about this book. The first two articles are here and here.

In the course of this book, he also goes through some transformations in himself, due to exposure to the Scriptures, such as becoming less angry with those around him (he lives in NYC, so anger at others was just a part of him, before). This shows that even nonbelievers are influenced by exposure to the Scriptures.

Well, as I said, more to come. Right now I have to look into my income taxes. Seems I owe some money this year.

This Quarterly Round Up

I decided to change from monthly roundups to quarterly roundups because I don't write here often enough to justify doing it monthly. I also decided to list some of the articles I have updated or where there are comments, for the few people (including me) who follow this blog, but need a way to get follow ups.

Part of this is because it has always bugged me that the news would do a story on some event with significant lasting repercussions and after effects, but I would have no way to follow up to see what happened in the months and years after.

I haven't published my slimeballs list in the last few months because I didn't have time to research and find the heroes that I promised would have to go with them. Let is suffice that there are many slimeballs, but that isn't what this blog is about.

I haven't done much with discussing Bible Study lately. I have been thinking about it, but need a different direction. The "For Dummies" series of books have lists of ten in the back, and maybe I could do a take off on that. I think I could do lists of five or so.

I did updates and or got comments on about half of the articles This has me almost singing with happiness, that someone found my writings worthwhile. (Hmmm, would that be pride?) The following are links to updates and articles that got comments.

I didn't finish my year end article last year
until 5 Jan this year. (and I cheated on the
deadline for this one, but only by a few hours)

I began a book review, promising more after I finished reading it. I will now say that this is a "must read" for Christians I did another review after reading half of it I am still reading it and will review it again

I did a short note on the UN resolution biased in favor of Hamas did one update and got one good comment.

I updated an article on year 2012 hysteria after getting some good comments on it

I fleshed out (a little) my five rules for personal finances.

There are comments and updates on my article about countries one by one succumbing to the Islamist movement.

Got one thoughtful comment, and one possible spam on my article about the increasing number of security cameras in our society.

Received one good comment (from Pilgrim) on my article about the digital TV revolution and its trojan horse.

I have also written comments on some other blogs, and I think it stands to reason, that if I take the time to comment on a blog, I consider it a worthwhile blog (at least it is worthwhile to me and some of my friends).


Combat Effective

Buying Gold and the price of Gold
Obama and his lies about gun control
Honor Killings among Muslims
Economic Policy
Body Scanners in airports


Future Millionaire

Short Selling a home
Rational Accumulation of Wealth


Pilgrim and Stranger

Salvation and The Gospel are not a consensus
Paul Harvey
Economic Justice
Spending Money and Charity-Not
Nature and Relaxation
Charity and the Poor
Police State, Abuse of Power
Witches and other Ideas of Decent Behaviour
Animal Cruelty, Police State, Abuse of Power


Arlo and Janis (This is my favorite comic strip)

A discussion about facebook

Actual post date and time for this article was changed to reflect some Pacific Ocean time zone.

A search for software (pt2)

See also, part one of this series.

GEEK ALERT: Despite being written for a general audiance this article is quite technicle in nature. If you are a non-geek, simply ignore the terms you don't understand, and you will still get three quarters of it.

I have been looking for replacements for some of the old DOS programs I built years ago, and this is a discussion about my quest to find a Personal Information Manager. I found three free PIM's that seemed, at first, to fill most of my requirements.


TreePad Lite is probably the easiest to find on the Net, but it turned out to be too limited - it seems to be mostly designed to wet your appatite for the business version. The business version seems to be quite good, and if you need a business PIM, you might want to check it out. There are actually four or five versions, and if you find it too your liking, I would reccommend paying for, and using the premium business version, if you use a Windows based computer in your business.


ChaosManager is a very simple and very compact PIM and organizer. While it is really, really, simple, the help pages and documentation are on its website and clicking on the help menues caused it to access its home URL. That is the main reason I didn't go with it. Beyond just not liking the fact that you have to go continually back to the web site to view documentaion, having the help menues access the web site means that if the web site goes under, so all of your help menues. I consider this a fatal error in the author's judgement.


I finally settled on EssentialPIM (for now) I used Micro$oft Outlook for e-mail many years ago, and this reminds me of that program. This program, the freeware edition, anyway, is so much like Micro$oft Outlook(without the e-mail), that I cannot really even define the differences in look and feel. Most of it revolves around a calandar and appointment book type of function. It also has a separate to-do list. The contact manager is very robust, even including a notepad and a place for a picture of the person.

There is a "Pro" (professional) version and it, just as much as treepad, has my reccomendation for those who need it for business.

Shortcomings

1. Help files are not very complete, and again, refer you to the author's website, where there is a forum for users of the product. This is, in my opinion, a huge drawback, and because of that, it took me a while to decide to use it anyway.
2. There is no direct mechanism to move things automatically from calandar (schedule) to to-do list. You can make to-do list items repeat on a regular basis, but I would have prefered those items to be listed on the calandar and at a certain number of days before the due date, add themselves to the to-do list.
3. Even though it shows you 6 weeks in the "monthly" planner, you can only print a calandar month, week or day.

The next program I need is a general purpose database, with some calculation capability. The primary, and first, purpose of this is to handle my checkbook register. I would also use it for my journal. There are some other things I would use it for, but these are the first.

I will cover this topic in a future "software search" article.

A search for software (pt1)

GEEK ALERT: This article is quite technical in nature. Despite being written for a non-geek audience, there are just some technical things that can't be ignored and still keep the article complete and accurate. If you are a non-geek, simply ignore the terms you don't understand, and you will still get three quarters of it.

I have been looking for a replacement for the old DOS filing systems I have been using on an "off line" computer since the 90's. (Even in the 90's MS-DOS was slightly out of date, but at this point, I fear I will soon not have any hardware that it will even run on.) The biggest problem with this task: I custom built most of this over the years, and it has a lot of custom functions that are just the way I like them.

I had several requirements in mind for the replacement programs. First, I wanted freeware. I'm cheap, but also I wanted after I got my system up and running, to be able to duplicate it on others' systems, without incurring expenses. Second, since I and some of my friends run older systems, it has to be stingy on computer resources. This cuts out Open Office, as it is free, but it is a resource hog. Third, for both security and economic concerns, it has to run completely off line - never accessing the Web, except possibly for upgrades, and then only with the user's permission. Lastly, it needs to run on Win2k and WinXP, since those are my platforms of choice, at this time. (I may in a few years, switch to Ubuntu Linux, but I need something to bridge the gap)

The fist thing I found out is that most of these programs, even the older ones, balk at my old 800x600 monitor. Statistically in the technology department, I recently slipped into the bottom 10% of the Internet users, and bottom 20% of the country as a whole. The majority of the world is using either 1024x768 or 1280x800(widescreen) resolution.

I figured I would need at least two programs to replace the suit of programs I have built in DOS. First something to keep track of birthdays and other info about friends and family, with a reminder system for that and other tasks, a to-do list, and a general purpose notebook. Basically this describes something (in a big leather book) called a "Day-Runner" from the 1980's, and is known as a PIM today. The other would be a database, mainly for my checkbook.

PIM stands for Personal Information Manager, and it allows you to keep all you information in electronic form. All your appointments, tasks, to do lists, notes and contacts are stored in a graphical and easily accessible form.

In my search, I found many dead ends. Most of the download sites today are loaded with shareware, which the authors want paid for. (And rightly so, since they did the work to create those programs) And many of those "free download" sites charge for the right to browse and download freely.

ASCORBIC ACID

One of the little secrets I carry around is that I am allergic to ascorbic acid. For some reason, its cousin, sodium ascorbate does not cause the same reaction, namely cancor sores that set in within a few hours of ingestion. It was bad enough when I had to avoid fruit flavored drinks, but over the years ascorbic acid has been added to more and more things.

This is such a rare thing that I had never, until recently, even heard of it. It took me over 10 years (all through the 90's) of cutting things out of my diet, as each one of them caused the reaction, before I figured out what the culprit was.

Oddly enough, sodium ascorbate does not seem to bother me, nor does fresh fruit. The fact that ascorbic acid is a sugar, largely imported from China, may have something to do with it.

I am still looking for more answers, but I think this system may just be fly paper.

return of the gun grabbers

The same race baiting cretian that said we should have racial "dialog" is now going about showing that the new administration is even less trustworthy.

Obama promised no gun grabbing.
But look what his Attorney General is doing already.

In case the ABC news link disappears.
This one shows Holder is even less trustworthy than Pelosi.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/pelosi-tosses-cold-water-on-reviving-assault-weapon-ban-2009-02-26.html

And this one is from Hannity

Well, I guess we will have to keep a close eye on these guys.

security cameras

As the crime rate rises, partly due to the recession, and partly due to the crumbling of our society, more and more there is a call for surveillance cameras. This is a particularly insidious threat in and of itself. As I have written before, corporations and governments (really the same thing) will ALWAYS abuse any power given to them. Without a framework of limits on their use, which we need yesterday, mission creep of these things will erode privacy and liberty at an ever increasing rate.

Much has already been written on this subject. Here are just a few examples:

dailymail in uk: Graffiti artist pulls audacious stunt despite CCTV

wired blog: US Surveillance

justicetalking blog: When the watchers watch themselves


Here I have nothing more than a couple of thoughts to throw in:
Security cameras can be generally lumped into 4 categories:

1. Privately owned, like residential.

2. Small business, like the neighborhood grocer or church.


3. Big Corporations, like Wal-Mart and Lockheed Martin

4. And then there is government, under which I would, of course, include any contractors engaged in business directly for the government, whether it be a highway construction crew or the shell corporations created to run "red light cameras" and "speed control cameras."

I would love to see a comprehensive plan on how to prevent the mission creep, ever extending retention dates, and ever expanding reach of these cameras, lest we someday awaken to a truly Orwellian existence.

Of course, I would favor ever increasing restrictions going from least restrictive in category 1 to most restrictive in category 4. But all of this is mostly just academic fodder. The average citizen has no power to limit the reach of government or corporations. But we can make our opinions known, and hopefully someone will stumble across them and give them some consideration.

Obama sized future

The future, under President Obama, looks grim. After each of his major public displays this month (Feb 9 and 17th) the markets tanked. And for good reason. His economic stimulus plan is far from what the economy needs, in order for it to return to the status it had in 2006. But is that really a bad thing? Do we really want to return to overinflated housing prices and trillions in consumer debt?


What we do face, in the short run(and this is completely out of Obama's control), can either be described as a long term recession or a short term depression. For the next year or two, we will not see any recovery, but instead will (hopefully, and this IS within Obama's control) see a cleaning out of our national excesses.


It is likely that we will recover from this recession in several years, but as a socialist/corporatist nation, rather than capitalist. Of course, we haven't really been capitalist since the Great Depression (which, in the future may be known as GD1, with this one known as GD2, just as we now have WW1 and WW2)


From a different point of view, we have not had real capitalism since the 1880's, when we saw the rise of the corporate states. (see 1886 Supreme Court Case, where corporations were given the same rights as persons) Corporatism has been with us for centuries, but was relatively unknown in the US when the Constitution was written. In addition, at that time, corporations were recognised to be instruments of the government. Those two facts may account for their absence from our Constitution.


There may be a silver lining to Obama's Presidency. He does seem (at least on the surface) to stand for the rolling back of some of the excesses of the corporate world. He has already come out in favor of Net Neutrality, and maybe he will be more sympathetic to the citizenry and listen less to the school of thugs on the subject of DRM.


This won't negate the facts that he is much more likely to abridge our (the citizens) Constitutional Rights in favor of increasing the power of the federal government and the power of the political parties (which are constitutionally repugnant). On these things, we will just have to wait and see.

Much of what is written above is in direct conflict with my religious thoughts. I truly believe that the end times are upon us, and that Jesus will return within the next 25 years. Possibly within the next several years. This does not negate the fact that we must carry on in light of the fact that He might not return when we think He should.

Until then.

we have a new word: porkulus

The word is derived from stimulus, though at first I thought it was from fabulous. (I would put a smily there, if I could remember how. :) )

A few mentions:

Weapons of Mass Discussion
http://massdiscussion.blogspot.com/2009/01/latta-on-porkulus.html

National Taxpayers Union
http://blog.ntu.org/main/post.php?post_id=4244

Under the Hill
http://underthehill.wordpress.com/2009/01/29/obama-got-his-porkulus-bill-passed/

Taxpayers Union says that government growth is the threat, not pork.
I would say it is both, and this bill represents both.

end of month, no roundup

I have decided to discontinue the idea of an end of month summary, opting instead for quarterly summaries, since I don't post often enough to merit monthly summaries.

I also don't expect to post quite as often this year.

A little doom and gloom

The United States, unless it suddenly finds a revival of religious intensity, will wither and die in the next few years. A mentality of "safety" has overtaken the mentality of adventure that once made U.S. great.

This idea of "safety" has permeated our society from top to bottom, and is the same poison whether it is the Patriot Act infringing our freedoms, or a judge allowing a jury to hear a lawsuit that really is frivolous (but he doesn't say it is, because his mind is just as poisoned as the plaintiff's), or the jury itself, that awards money to the "victim" who was really victimized by their own stupidity or greed.

Here is some background info on the same subject. Much of what is below was the precipitating factor, causing me to write this entry. It is an interesting coincidence that two blogs I read have such similar subjects on the same day.

Police and government using harassment to enhance public "safety" by interfering with liberty of citizens.

The problem shows up in the form of lawsuits:

The courts now favor "safety from drugs" above the constitution.

a little on economics

I am observing a trend towards higher gas prices this spring. I can't see them getting to $3 a gallon this year, but $2.40 is not out of the question.

The economy is still dragging, and will for some time in the future. Obama is inheriting a lethargic economy that will thwart any and all efforts to get it moving. At least at first. Some months down the line (I still think it will be after 2010) things will get moving again. What we, as a nation do will not change the time line that much - but will ultimately decide if the economy roars back to life with the US leading the world into prosperity, or the world leading us into ruin.

So what is a person to do? The same as always. Before the crash and after the crash, the same five principles are the ones to remember. (The Bible has many passages about money, and many more that only seem to be about money, but all of the ones about money can be summed up 98% accurately by these five rules)

1. Work industriously.
This can mean working to get ahead in your job, or
working towards getting a better job.
2. Live frugally.
You can never really know how frugal you need to be,
unless you realise hot water, central heat, and AC are
luxuries (at least in 80% of the coutry)
3. Give generously.
It is always up to you to decide how generously.
God loves a cheerful giver.
(Should be kept in balance with number 4)
4. Save methodically.
This could mean anything from squirrelling something
away for a rainy day, to rolling over your 401k and
keeping your real estate holdings profitable.
All depends on your station in life.
(Should be in balance with number 3 however.)
5. Most importantly, leave the results to God.
Life is an endeavor where you can do everything
right and still wind up broke.
But faith teaches that our true rewards are in the afterlife.

14 thugs and a coward

The UN security council voted to call a cease fire in Gaza in the midst of Israel's attempt to stop Hamas from its continued military actions - firing rocket and mortars from Gaza into Israel. Sadly, the US demonstrated cowardice, by not standing up to this despotic behavior. Despite the obviousness of Hamas's war crimes, such as using women, children, and other noncombatants as human shields, the only person I have heard state plainly that Hamas is in the wrong is President Bush. And he has failed to reign in Sec. of State Rice.

The sad fact is that a large portion of the world has chosen, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to believe a lie. There may be some explanation of this willingness to disreguard the truth, as many of our institutions, including our government have been infiltrated.

Update on the US decision to abstain:
It seems Pres. Bush did reign in Sec. of State Rice, at least somewhat.
This post by Caroline Glick gives details.

End of year post is late

I will be late getting the end of year post on this blog. I could make some (pretty legit) excuses, like having to deal with some infirmity, work and such, but the truth is that I just mismanaged my priorities. One of my new year's resolutions, which I started on yesterday, is to get that kind of stuff in order. Get my priorities straight.

I don't get many comments on this blog, so to those of you (especially Rob and DW: together they left more than half of all the comments this year) who take the time to comment on it, thank you. I will try to write here more often, so that you will have a reason to stop by.

I will stick my end of year blog entry on the end of this post, and while the software would let me hide my tardiness, if I so chose, I see no reason to obfuscate, so when you read this, if it says Updated and Complete, then it is done.

Till then . . .

UPDATED and complete 5Jan09: I started out this year embarking on a project to outline a method for Christians who are barely literate (like me) to study the Bible. And to study it well enough to get an understanding of it. More on that shortly.

It was not long till I got bogged down in the details, and sidetracked into politics, and into cataloging some of the slimeballs of our society. (BTW, "slimeballs and heroes" will no longer be monthly. But once in a while, when I find someone who epitomizes each category, I might add an entry.

It was a difficult wait for me, when the Supreme Court took on the question of gun control and deliberated for 99 days. When they came back with an anemic decision, I was disappointed, but decided it might be sufficient.

I did get the blog entries labeled and did a little on technology. The printer that died this spring has been replaced by a laser printer, and I will do a product review on that printer in the near future. I have developed a love / hate relationship with LED lights and CFL's, and have touched on the advantages and disadvantages of each.

As I have noted a couple of times, Christianity is beginning to come under attack from atheists, gays, and Islam. While persecution is not yet prevalent in the US, this should be a warning that it could be here soon. Especially if we, as a nation, fall victim to things like the "World Court" and other UN games. This means it is all the more important for Christians to study the Scriptures so we cannot be misled by the world.

As maddening high gas prices met up with maddening over inflation of housing prices, both spurred by a liberal leftist sickness of greed and entitlement, the economy collapsed, and for once I was way off on my gas price forecast for next year. If you still have a job, celebrate quietly and start squirreling away some funds for down the road.

I mentioned there may be terrorism and civil unrest in the near future. Now is not the time for others to see any display of wealth, and it is time to keep a gun at the ready - right along with plans for evacuation, or for hunkering down, should things go from bad to worse.

I think things may begin to get better in a couple of years - but I have been wrong before. We will see where things go next year. As I have said about Bible study, it is an adventure - and I am looking forward to it.

US Gov Printing More Money

It seems Washington is printing money at an astonishing rate, in the hopes that they can buy us out of the mess that spending money like it grows on trees got us into. While I have not been able to find any government report saying the Fed is printing money, I have found several economists and newspapers all saying it, and one or two saying they have seen it in a government report.

Why I haven't gotten a smoking gun (a report right out of the federal government) may be explained by the last quote at the bottom of this entry. While that is good (it largely keeps the Fed away from the horse trading and arm twisting associated with the elected branches of the government), it does require a lot of calm thinking on the part of those running the Fed and a lot of trust from the rest of us. (The members are replaced, generally after 10 years or so, by the President)

Someone pseudonymed Pyrrho says that average people cannot fathom macroeconomics, and I tend to agree with him. I have argued macro economics with an acquaintance who is well versed in the subject, and often he has me scratching my head. I do, however suspect that he and I could agree that a federal government policy that encourages making things through manufacturing is superior in the long run to one that only encourages buying things and borrowing (or printing) money to do so. Let us hope and pray that Obama has and keeps that understanding.


Crunchy Conservative
The US Federal Reserve has committed itself to print as much money as it believes it needs

New York Times
Of much greater practical importance, the Fed bluntly announced that it would print as much money as necessary to revive the frozen credit markets

and

All of the tools involve borrowing by the Fed, which amounts to printing money in vast new quantities, a process the Fed has already started. Since September, the Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from about $900 billion to more than $2 trillion as it has created money and lent it out.

Bloomberg
said Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG.
"The Federal Reserve is increasing its balance sheet and now printing money, and that’s all quantitative easing is, printing money," Jersey said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio in New York. "Ultimately this ends with inflation being significantly higher than the market is anticipating right now.


HartfordBusiness
U.S. fiscal policy today has a Ponzi-like character to it. We are printing money at a breakneck pace to keep up with entitlement spending programs that most experts say will grow faster than our gross national product. Our federal budget deficit this year could top $1 trillion.

Blogging Stocks
How far the Federal Reserve goes in printing money is anyone's guess. We have to keep in mind that, except for a few periodic reports to Congress, there are virtually no checks and balances on the Fed. They were intended to operate as a separate entity apart from any branch of government.