As promised, here are my annual gas price forecast, and it looks a lot like last year. While I did blow it badly a couple of years ago, I have provided my readers with somewhat accurate forecasts for 5 out of 7 years, and last year was not that far off, even with the economy doing much worse than many people predicted. The only thing that caught me off guard was that China's economy did worse than I expected.
The Bottom Line, Right Up Front.
I am forecasting gas to be $3.54 early next May.
This is in areas where gasoline taxes are low, and where the price has been hovering around $2.49 to $2.56 for the last couple of months. This web page will give an idea of the price of gas around the country. For next spring's pricing, just add another dollar a gallon.
In reality, I don't think it will get quite that high, but as I pointed out in previous forecasts, I do this for budget forecasting purposes, so if it doesn't quite get that high, there is no harm.
The ever increasing role of China, the recession the ongoing and somewhat deepening recession, and the prospect of a high inflation rate (which I don't think we will see this next year) are challenges, but in this year's forecast, I think the ongoing recession will be the most important factors in the coming year.
Here is the formula I used this year:
The predominant price of crude oil in July this year
is $76 a barrel, divided by 25 (you can get about 25 gal
of gas at the pump from one barrel of crude) gives
$3.04 - to which I add $.50 tax (the tax in some states
is much higher) to give $3.54 per gallon.
I will likely, in coming years, add an inflation factor to compensate for the weakening of the dollar, and maybe a supply stress factor for increases in consumption, or for overt destruction of sources (think war). Neither of those are a factor this year. In addition, the price of oil seems, historically to rise at the end of July, and there tend to be disasters in Aug and Sept, as well as hurricanes in the fall, but the market prices already have these things built in so I don't think getting too concerned there is of any use.
One concern is the ongoing oil spill (even though the well is now capped) and the disastrous handling of it because of both the incompetence of British Petroleum and the congressional grandstanding in our Federal Government. One consequence that is just now beginning to materialize is the movement of drillers out of US waters. This has the potential of worsening our recession AND increasing the price of gas at the pump by more than a dollar a gallon within a couple of years.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Friday, July 09, 2010
The New Economic Name
We have a new name for this economic crisis.
It is now known as the Great Recession.
The height and breadth of insanity in the world is just breathtaking. Many continue to insist that the only way out of a hole is to dig deeper. That people, corporations, or nations can borrow and spend their way out of debt.
Some small signs of recovery are evident, as private payrolls continue to climb, though very slowly. Manufacturing payrolls are off this month, although this is on a world wide scale, and that is likely to keep the price of oil (and other energy) down. Lower energy prices are good for US manufacturing, and the US economy in general.
A long talked about commercial real estate slump may be at our door step, but whether it will usher in a "double dip" recession is still in question. I don't think so, but I have been wrong before.
Recently the 2 year treasury bond rate plunged to less than 3/4 of a percent. While some of the above mentioned insane people think this is a good thing (though it does beat the Greek T-Bill rate), what it tells me is that the economy will remain in the crapper for at least another 2 years. The extremely slow gains in private payrolls are not yet enough to offset the increases in population, let alone the increases in government corruption we have seen since the Democrats returned to power in 2007 and 2009. (We need to have an increase of 400,000 jobs a month in the private sector, or an increase of 40,000 jobs in manufacturing per month, something we haven't seen since the mid 80's.)
I still foresee a round of high inflation, some time in our future. But, as always, I don't know when it will be. I can say it will be before we see any real recovery. But at this time, I can't even say if we will seen any real recovery. I thought in 2008 that it would be a couple years after the collapse, but now it still seems a couple years away. More, now it looks like 4 to 6 years away.
Gold is still too high to invest in.
(Needs to be down around $1100 an once.)
I still recommend investing in tools
and other things to help survive
this "Great Recession."
It is now known as the Great Recession.
The height and breadth of insanity in the world is just breathtaking. Many continue to insist that the only way out of a hole is to dig deeper. That people, corporations, or nations can borrow and spend their way out of debt.
Some small signs of recovery are evident, as private payrolls continue to climb, though very slowly. Manufacturing payrolls are off this month, although this is on a world wide scale, and that is likely to keep the price of oil (and other energy) down. Lower energy prices are good for US manufacturing, and the US economy in general.
A long talked about commercial real estate slump may be at our door step, but whether it will usher in a "double dip" recession is still in question. I don't think so, but I have been wrong before.
Recently the 2 year treasury bond rate plunged to less than 3/4 of a percent. While some of the above mentioned insane people think this is a good thing (though it does beat the Greek T-Bill rate), what it tells me is that the economy will remain in the crapper for at least another 2 years. The extremely slow gains in private payrolls are not yet enough to offset the increases in population, let alone the increases in government corruption we have seen since the Democrats returned to power in 2007 and 2009. (We need to have an increase of 400,000 jobs a month in the private sector, or an increase of 40,000 jobs in manufacturing per month, something we haven't seen since the mid 80's.)
I still foresee a round of high inflation, some time in our future. But, as always, I don't know when it will be. I can say it will be before we see any real recovery. But at this time, I can't even say if we will seen any real recovery. I thought in 2008 that it would be a couple years after the collapse, but now it still seems a couple years away. More, now it looks like 4 to 6 years away.
Gold is still too high to invest in.
(Needs to be down around $1100 an once.)
I still recommend investing in tools
and other things to help survive
this "Great Recession."
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Some Definitions and Observations
Apostasy - to turn away from a belief one once held. To deny, what a person once held to be true. Many old mainline Churches have fallen into Apostacy. They no longer believe the Bible is the final authority.
A liberal (also leftist) is someone who rejects logical and biblical standards, often for self-centered reasons. There are no coherent liberal standards; often a liberal is merely someone who craves attention, and who uses many words to say nothing. Liberalism began as a movement for individual liberties, but today is increasingly statist and, as in Europe, socialistic.
G Gordon Liddy : A liberal is someone who
feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt
he proposes to pay off with your money.
(May be originally attributed to Barry Goldwater)
I heard a new acronym, that might be of interest to some folks.
LEFTIST: Lying Everywhere, Fighting Truth In Society Today
Progressive - a liberal, trying to pretend they are not a liberal.
A liberal (also leftist) is someone who rejects logical and biblical standards, often for self-centered reasons. There are no coherent liberal standards; often a liberal is merely someone who craves attention, and who uses many words to say nothing. Liberalism began as a movement for individual liberties, but today is increasingly statist and, as in Europe, socialistic.
G Gordon Liddy : A liberal is someone who
feels a great debt to his fellow man, which debt
he proposes to pay off with your money.
(May be originally attributed to Barry Goldwater)
I heard a new acronym, that might be of interest to some folks.
LEFTIST: Lying Everywhere, Fighting Truth In Society Today
Progressive - a liberal, trying to pretend they are not a liberal.
Friday, July 02, 2010
First - Three Things
First: Three things to look for when buying a Bible.
Some advice for the elementary level, and some for the intermediate level.
Then below, three things to read after getting a new Bible.
2. Look at the cover and binding to see if it is suitable for what you want it for. To give away, you might go with a paperback, and they all have glued bindings. But these don't last long. A better one is to go with an imitation leather cover and sewn binding. If the book is going to be handled a lot or loosely stood on a shelf quite a lot, it needs a hard cover.
3. Look at the size of the type, whether it has center column references (more on that below). Does it have chapter or section headings (a single line providing the main topic of the chapter)? Does it have Jesus Words in Red? Is the type easy to read in moderate light? This is especially important when you reach middle age. Sometimes with thin paper, the ink from the other side of the page can be noticeable, making it harder to read in low light. The Bibles I linked to above are good in low light, but have fairly small type and no center column. Sometimes on Amazon it is hard to find that information.
1. After acquiring a new Bible, again, read the copyright page. One thing to look at, if it is not one of the Old English translations, is what foundation, publisher, or seminary is listed there. Someone may ask you that someday, and it is good to know about those publishers. And read the preface. Often it will tell how they balanced word for word accuracy against thought for thought ease of reading. More than just a conversation piece, this information is important when trying to discern subtle shades of meaning in many passages.
2. Many prefaces have a discussion of italics, block lettering and capitalization. The original languages did not use a lot of the grammatical building blocks we use today, so in many cases words are added simply to make the passage readable in English. Often these will be in brackets or italics. And any personal pronouns referring to God will likely be capitalized, although the details may vary from one translation and/or college to another.
3. Notice the center column and the passage headings. These are good for finding other passages on similar subjects to the one you're reading about. Remember though, these are some person's opinion of the material in the Scriptures. I have occasionally found a center column reference that I couldn't figure out why it was there. But I guess it made sense to someone. The passage headings are important to all us beginners, to help us find things when looking for a certain subject, assuming we know its approximate location. Same with Jesus Words in Red. Mostly just a location tool.
Some advice for the elementary level, and some for the intermediate level.
Then below, three things to read after getting a new Bible.
- The translation, and translation or copyright dates
- Cover and Binding
- Size composition and color of type, and page transparency
2. Look at the cover and binding to see if it is suitable for what you want it for. To give away, you might go with a paperback, and they all have glued bindings. But these don't last long. A better one is to go with an imitation leather cover and sewn binding. If the book is going to be handled a lot or loosely stood on a shelf quite a lot, it needs a hard cover.
3. Look at the size of the type, whether it has center column references (more on that below). Does it have chapter or section headings (a single line providing the main topic of the chapter)? Does it have Jesus Words in Red? Is the type easy to read in moderate light? This is especially important when you reach middle age. Sometimes with thin paper, the ink from the other side of the page can be noticeable, making it harder to read in low light. The Bibles I linked to above are good in low light, but have fairly small type and no center column. Sometimes on Amazon it is hard to find that information.
1. After acquiring a new Bible, again, read the copyright page. One thing to look at, if it is not one of the Old English translations, is what foundation, publisher, or seminary is listed there. Someone may ask you that someday, and it is good to know about those publishers. And read the preface. Often it will tell how they balanced word for word accuracy against thought for thought ease of reading. More than just a conversation piece, this information is important when trying to discern subtle shades of meaning in many passages.
2. Many prefaces have a discussion of italics, block lettering and capitalization. The original languages did not use a lot of the grammatical building blocks we use today, so in many cases words are added simply to make the passage readable in English. Often these will be in brackets or italics. And any personal pronouns referring to God will likely be capitalized, although the details may vary from one translation and/or college to another.
3. Notice the center column and the passage headings. These are good for finding other passages on similar subjects to the one you're reading about. Remember though, these are some person's opinion of the material in the Scriptures. I have occasionally found a center column reference that I couldn't figure out why it was there. But I guess it made sense to someone. The passage headings are important to all us beginners, to help us find things when looking for a certain subject, assuming we know its approximate location. Same with Jesus Words in Red. Mostly just a location tool.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Economy getting better?
Yes and no.
First a discussion of that question, and then some musings on global economics, oil, gold, and the possibility of the dreaded "double dip" recession, and Jesus Return.
I had earlier named this "Great Depression 2" but now many are calling it the Great Recession, so I think that is what I will call it now. And in spite of all the efforts of the Obama Administration, we are ever so slowly pulling out of it.
Sometimes it is almost humorous to watch as the numbers go up and down each month. As the month progresses, the numbers rise as reports of optimism show up, followed by reports of rising numbers. So, really much of it is rising numbers, based on reports of rising numbers.
Then the beginning of the month, the payroll
statistics roll in, and the numbers plummet.
Because payroll statistics
have a lot to do with reality.
On major part of the problem is the way we measure the economy. All of the economists have said for years that 70 percent of our economy is based on spending. The world economy stops if we all stop spending, and that has become a self fulfilling prophesy. If everyone were to stop (or even cut back severely) spending, the economy would be in chaos in very short order.
But payroll is where the forecasters need to be looking. Specifically manufacturing payroll. And while it is expanding, it is doing so at an excruciatingly slow pace. It is expanding against the combined headwind of the Obama government, moderately high energy prices, and a strong dollar. But it is expanding so slowly that it will not, at this pace, keep up with the increasing population, and decreasing world resources.
Musings on global economics
And still, the foolishness of the socialists around the world shows itself without shame. On CNBC, early this morning, I heard a couple of them discussing the budgets of countries around Europe. Someday, they said, we need to reduce the deficit spending, but right now is not the time. They actually think governments borrowing and spending more money on socialist programs, when they are already suffering the consequences of debt overload, will lead them to prosperity.
But you can't change the way
the world thinks and behaves,
you can only change
the way you think and behave.
Musings on oil
The gusher under the Gulf has brought the idiots to the forefront. From the BP execs and engineers who have shown a complete incompetence when it comes to capping the leak, and a contempt for telling the truth to the public about things like how large the leak is, to those who rallied in Austin to tell us that we need to change immediately to alternative energy sources, to Obama, who, this morning said he needs to know "whose ass to kick."
And then there is the ever present bureaucracy that would rather do nothing, insuring a certain failure, than to allow Louisiana to build a berm that might not be 100% sure. And two weeks after it became desperate, everyone is still bogged down in protecting their own butts.
This whole fiasco has not affected the price of oil, (it amounts to less than 1% of our supply) but it has affected the price of BP stock, as it should. Although the lunitics in Ausin espouse some wacky schemes energywise, I agree with them that ultimately BP should be dismantled and sold off to pay for the cleanup, which coult take more than two years.
Musings on gold
Gold still hovers about 20% (give or take) above its fair market value, so I wouldn't buy any at this time, but on the other hand, you'd be a fool to sell it, unless you need the money urgently. Eventually, all of the foolishness of the governments of the world will catch up with them. Optimistically, you will need that gold as an anchor for your investments. Pessimistically, you might want to trade it for ammo.
(12 gauge and 9mm are the most popular,
but 38 special will also trade well)
Musings on the dreaded "double dip"
There will be another recession. And there will be a round of excessively high inflation (I don't think it will be hyperinflation, by definition). When? I don't know. If we get the recession first, that will be the "double dip" everyone talks about. But it could be, that we will get the inflation for a few years, and then go into a recession. Then it will be called something else.
Either way, the road ahead will be rougher than anything seen since WW2. And it will never get better again. (I thought, at one time, that the US couldn't be beaten. I never thought about it being sold.)
Musings on Jesus Return
There will be wars ... and many other signs. Someday Jesus will return, but it will be on His own time. God is not impressed with our calendar. Do not despair. Do not let your love grow cold. We live in the age of apostasy, and can see the signs and prophesies being fulfilled by the numbers. But no man knows the day nor the hour. (Nor the year) Personally, I expect things to get a lot worse before He returns, whether that is in 2 years, or 32 years.
First a discussion of that question, and then some musings on global economics, oil, gold, and the possibility of the dreaded "double dip" recession, and Jesus Return.
I had earlier named this "Great Depression 2" but now many are calling it the Great Recession, so I think that is what I will call it now. And in spite of all the efforts of the Obama Administration, we are ever so slowly pulling out of it.
Sometimes it is almost humorous to watch as the numbers go up and down each month. As the month progresses, the numbers rise as reports of optimism show up, followed by reports of rising numbers. So, really much of it is rising numbers, based on reports of rising numbers.
Then the beginning of the month, the payroll
statistics roll in, and the numbers plummet.
Because payroll statistics
have a lot to do with reality.
On major part of the problem is the way we measure the economy. All of the economists have said for years that 70 percent of our economy is based on spending. The world economy stops if we all stop spending, and that has become a self fulfilling prophesy. If everyone were to stop (or even cut back severely) spending, the economy would be in chaos in very short order.
But payroll is where the forecasters need to be looking. Specifically manufacturing payroll. And while it is expanding, it is doing so at an excruciatingly slow pace. It is expanding against the combined headwind of the Obama government, moderately high energy prices, and a strong dollar. But it is expanding so slowly that it will not, at this pace, keep up with the increasing population, and decreasing world resources.
Musings on global economics
And still, the foolishness of the socialists around the world shows itself without shame. On CNBC, early this morning, I heard a couple of them discussing the budgets of countries around Europe. Someday, they said, we need to reduce the deficit spending, but right now is not the time. They actually think governments borrowing and spending more money on socialist programs, when they are already suffering the consequences of debt overload, will lead them to prosperity.
But you can't change the way
the world thinks and behaves,
you can only change
the way you think and behave.
Musings on oil
The gusher under the Gulf has brought the idiots to the forefront. From the BP execs and engineers who have shown a complete incompetence when it comes to capping the leak, and a contempt for telling the truth to the public about things like how large the leak is, to those who rallied in Austin to tell us that we need to change immediately to alternative energy sources, to Obama, who, this morning said he needs to know "whose ass to kick."
And then there is the ever present bureaucracy that would rather do nothing, insuring a certain failure, than to allow Louisiana to build a berm that might not be 100% sure. And two weeks after it became desperate, everyone is still bogged down in protecting their own butts.
This whole fiasco has not affected the price of oil, (it amounts to less than 1% of our supply) but it has affected the price of BP stock, as it should. Although the lunitics in Ausin espouse some wacky schemes energywise, I agree with them that ultimately BP should be dismantled and sold off to pay for the cleanup, which coult take more than two years.
Musings on gold
Gold still hovers about 20% (give or take) above its fair market value, so I wouldn't buy any at this time, but on the other hand, you'd be a fool to sell it, unless you need the money urgently. Eventually, all of the foolishness of the governments of the world will catch up with them. Optimistically, you will need that gold as an anchor for your investments. Pessimistically, you might want to trade it for ammo.
(12 gauge and 9mm are the most popular,
but 38 special will also trade well)
Musings on the dreaded "double dip"
There will be another recession. And there will be a round of excessively high inflation (I don't think it will be hyperinflation, by definition). When? I don't know. If we get the recession first, that will be the "double dip" everyone talks about. But it could be, that we will get the inflation for a few years, and then go into a recession. Then it will be called something else.
Either way, the road ahead will be rougher than anything seen since WW2. And it will never get better again. (I thought, at one time, that the US couldn't be beaten. I never thought about it being sold.)
Musings on Jesus Return
There will be wars ... and many other signs. Someday Jesus will return, but it will be on His own time. God is not impressed with our calendar. Do not despair. Do not let your love grow cold. We live in the age of apostasy, and can see the signs and prophesies being fulfilled by the numbers. But no man knows the day nor the hour. (Nor the year) Personally, I expect things to get a lot worse before He returns, whether that is in 2 years, or 32 years.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
New start point - Bibles And Christians
This page will serve as a temporary index to the most important articles I have written on the subjects of Bible Study and Christian Living. It will be replaced sometime in the future by a more organized version.
I began this project because so many people are claiming to be a Christian, and yet they show no real knowledge of Christ or what the Bible says Jesus requires of a Christian, that I have written some short essays expressing my views of their lack of Biblical Knowledge.
Are You really a Christian?
And some longer ones. This one begins with a paragraph defining my view of the Gospel, a view I can defend each and every word of, from Scripture. Grace, The Law, and Works
Now, many will tell you that the first thing a new Christian should do after getting saved is to find a good Church. (I may agree or disagree with that statement, but that is for a later article) But what is a good Church? How is one to tell? Here I have written a short (about 3 pages) essay on what to look for.
Characteristics of a good Church
Now, on to the central theme: Bible Study
Why Study the Bible
Not everybody reading this will be on the same level of knowledge.
Different levels of knowledge in Bible Studies
Where to start reading and studying: I have always advocated starting with the Gospel According to Luke, when beginning to study the Bible. There are many reasons for this. It is easy to read and starts with the Christmas story.
But if you are going to study the Bible, you might want to know which translation to read. Well, one that you can understand is a good start. For more details
Translations of The Bible
And for studying the Bible, you also might want a Study Bible.
Now that we are clear on "which" Bible
to study, let's begin to really study.
After Luke: Beginning Study
In case you need more reason to study:
Crisis in the Church - Apostasy
Just a note here: Bank tellers are not given training on how to spot a counterfeit bill. The learn to spot the phonies as a side effect of handling the real thing day after day for months at a time.
And in case you have some doubts about the authenticity of the text we have in our hands today. You might want to know how we can know the Bible in our hands today is the same as what was written hundreds and hundreds of years ago.
I began this project because so many people are claiming to be a Christian, and yet they show no real knowledge of Christ or what the Bible says Jesus requires of a Christian, that I have written some short essays expressing my views of their lack of Biblical Knowledge.
Are You really a Christian?
And some longer ones. This one begins with a paragraph defining my view of the Gospel, a view I can defend each and every word of, from Scripture. Grace, The Law, and Works
Now, many will tell you that the first thing a new Christian should do after getting saved is to find a good Church. (I may agree or disagree with that statement, but that is for a later article) But what is a good Church? How is one to tell? Here I have written a short (about 3 pages) essay on what to look for.
Characteristics of a good Church
Now, on to the central theme: Bible Study
Why Study the Bible
Not everybody reading this will be on the same level of knowledge.
Different levels of knowledge in Bible Studies
Where to start reading and studying: I have always advocated starting with the Gospel According to Luke, when beginning to study the Bible. There are many reasons for this. It is easy to read and starts with the Christmas story.
But if you are going to study the Bible, you might want to know which translation to read. Well, one that you can understand is a good start. For more details
Translations of The Bible
And for studying the Bible, you also might want a Study Bible.
Now that we are clear on "which" Bible
to study, let's begin to really study.
After Luke: Beginning Study
And on the other hand, if you come here just totally
overwhelmed and struggling to understand any of this
- or -
What do you do if you are still struggling to understand
what you read in the Gospel according to Luke?
Ephesus Project: Cheats and helps
(I need to update that one)
overwhelmed and struggling to understand any of this
- or -
What do you do if you are still struggling to understand
what you read in the Gospel according to Luke?
Ephesus Project: Cheats and helps
(I need to update that one)
In case you need more reason to study:
Crisis in the Church - Apostasy
Just a note here: Bank tellers are not given training on how to spot a counterfeit bill. The learn to spot the phonies as a side effect of handling the real thing day after day for months at a time.
And in case you have some doubts about the authenticity of the text we have in our hands today. You might want to know how we can know the Bible in our hands today is the same as what was written hundreds and hundreds of years ago.
Saturday, May 08, 2010
The economy begins to turn - maybe
The insanity in the economic culture of our society today is so entrenched that I really don't see, short of a complete awakening like a religious conversion of at least 100 million of our citizens. Our society is doomed to destruction because our society, on both the right and the left, have followed the council of the entitlement god, believing lies and seeking destinations of destruction.
And as Dave Ramsey put it one day: "we are a culture of bass." You don't need any kind of fish food to catch Bass. Bass will strike at anything shiny. Throw a shiny object in front of them and they will take the hook. Our culture is like that. Shiny new car. Shiny new home entertainment center. Shiny new spouse. Shiny new house. We take the hook and pay for it later.
But we as individuals do not have to take part in the insanity.
Start with my five rules of economics.
Learn the fallacies of the prosperity preachers.
Learn about the economic system.
I'll get the links and say more on this stuff later.
This month's economic news.
This month's economic news is good on several fronts. Most importantly, manufacturing is expanding. This, as I say is real money. There is only three sources of real money in a society. Agriculture, mining (including drilling) and manufacturing.
GDP seems to be on an expansion, but the service sector and government can do that without any real national growth. The unemployment rate is up, but that is deceptive, meaning more people got back into the workforce and are looking for a job. The "under employment" index may finally fall for the first time in a couple of years.
Payrolls, and most importantly, manufacturing payrolls expanded both in March and in April, for the first time in years. A couple of months ago, the manufacturing index went into the positive side, but not enough to expand payrolls. Manufactures were able to keep up just by working a little faster. Now they are adding employees.
The threat of inflation is right on our doorstep, and even the Fed Reserve Bank President is a little worried about it, but Washington and Wall Street aren't saying much.
More good news for Americans, the troubles in Greece and a slowdown in China are providing us with a strong dollar and lower energy prices. Despite what anyone may think of the oil spill, it hasn't impacted our supplies all that much. The effects of these things are temporary, and energy will go up again in the future, but we can enjoy it for now.
On the long term, China is beginning to import coal, (just a little) as well as oil and gasoline, so we need to be planning ahead for higher gas and electric prices in a few years.
And as Dave Ramsey put it one day: "we are a culture of bass." You don't need any kind of fish food to catch Bass. Bass will strike at anything shiny. Throw a shiny object in front of them and they will take the hook. Our culture is like that. Shiny new car. Shiny new home entertainment center. Shiny new spouse. Shiny new house. We take the hook and pay for it later.
But we as individuals do not have to take part in the insanity.
Start with my five rules of economics.
Learn the fallacies of the prosperity preachers.
Learn about the economic system.
I'll get the links and say more on this stuff later.
This month's economic news.
This month's economic news is good on several fronts. Most importantly, manufacturing is expanding. This, as I say is real money. There is only three sources of real money in a society. Agriculture, mining (including drilling) and manufacturing.
GDP seems to be on an expansion, but the service sector and government can do that without any real national growth. The unemployment rate is up, but that is deceptive, meaning more people got back into the workforce and are looking for a job. The "under employment" index may finally fall for the first time in a couple of years.
Payrolls, and most importantly, manufacturing payrolls expanded both in March and in April, for the first time in years. A couple of months ago, the manufacturing index went into the positive side, but not enough to expand payrolls. Manufactures were able to keep up just by working a little faster. Now they are adding employees.
The threat of inflation is right on our doorstep, and even the Fed Reserve Bank President is a little worried about it, but Washington and Wall Street aren't saying much.
More good news for Americans, the troubles in Greece and a slowdown in China are providing us with a strong dollar and lower energy prices. Despite what anyone may think of the oil spill, it hasn't impacted our supplies all that much. The effects of these things are temporary, and energy will go up again in the future, but we can enjoy it for now.
On the long term, China is beginning to import coal, (just a little) as well as oil and gasoline, so we need to be planning ahead for higher gas and electric prices in a few years.
Tuesday, May 04, 2010
After Much Thought - Levels
After giving it much thought, I have decided to loosely categorize Bible Study tools into four categories.
1. Complete Novice
If you don't know many Bible stories, don't know the books of the Bible, or the characters, and are frankly intimidated buy the sheer magnitude of the whole thing. This is you.
I discovered one person I gave a Haley's Handbook to was intimidated by the size of the handbook. True, it is thicker than the Bible itself, but that is mostly because the paper in the pages is thicker. And it has more pictures. But just the same, they were intimidated. Sign of a Complete Novice.
I didn't used to think there were many people in Church at this level. Now I know differently. After half a century of steadily deteriorating public school training, we now have a large portion of the US population functionally illiterate when it comes to real books. They can function on the job, read a magazine, or read some of the junk food fiction that passes for literature today, but they can't get through a serious non fiction book.
If you are at this point, you need tools for orientation.
Childrens Bible Stories
Picture Bibles
Elementary Handbooks
2. Elementary Learning Level
If you do know several of the stories of the Bible, but don't really know where to start learning more. Maybe you tried "getting into the Bible" one or more times, but crashed and burned. But you are willing to try again, and realize that if you can take it a bite at a time, you can do it, then this is you. At the Elementary Learning Level.
In the past, this is where I always used to start with people.
Mainly because I remained at this level for about 20 years.
If you are at this level, you need tools for understanding.
Dictionary and Cultural context tools.
Maps and History guides
Bible Handbooks
Catechism type Books (Books that ask a lot of questions for you to explore)
Thesaurus
3. Intermediate Leaning Level
This is really an extension of the Elementary Level. OK, so you know your way around the Bible stories and you have some knowledge of the times and places where the events of the Bible took place, and have some idea how to break down Bible passages to gain a deeper understanding of what is really written.
Now you need tools to help find answers to the more difficult questions, usually posed by nonbelievers, but also posed by some of the more Elementary believers, and by some heritics (although for vastly different reasons).
These are tools for historical context
ExtraBiblical Tools to support the Bible
Archeological and Apologetics tools.
Simple Doctrinal Tools
3a. Some other stuff that might be of interest at this level are things others have written about the Bible. Stuff that Christians may or may not agree with, as far as doctrine or interpretation. These can give you insight about the disputes that arise over interpretations, and insight as to just what non beleivers do not understand, since much of what you know about the Bible may seem easy and straightforwards to you as you progress through the intermediate level of understanding. These can prevent or remedy complacency in interpretation.
3b. This may also be a good point at which to begin learning about various other religions, Christian and pseudo christian religions, and some other religions around the world.
4. Higher Learning Levels
I can't say much about this level, as I have only begun to explore at this level.
Studies of Apologetics
Studies of Doctrine
Original Language Translations and Lexicons (Vines)
Strong's Exhaustive Concordance
Ok, now that I have laid the ground work here, I will begin, in the future to lump study tools into one of the above categories. You can always use, though maybe with some difficulty, tools from a higher level. You can also use, though with diminished effectiveness, tools from a lower level. And, actually, you should be reviewing tools from the lower levels, for others who may be coming to you for guidance.
1. Complete Novice
If you don't know many Bible stories, don't know the books of the Bible, or the characters, and are frankly intimidated buy the sheer magnitude of the whole thing. This is you.
I discovered one person I gave a Haley's Handbook to was intimidated by the size of the handbook. True, it is thicker than the Bible itself, but that is mostly because the paper in the pages is thicker. And it has more pictures. But just the same, they were intimidated. Sign of a Complete Novice.
I didn't used to think there were many people in Church at this level. Now I know differently. After half a century of steadily deteriorating public school training, we now have a large portion of the US population functionally illiterate when it comes to real books. They can function on the job, read a magazine, or read some of the junk food fiction that passes for literature today, but they can't get through a serious non fiction book.
If you are at this point, you need tools for orientation.
Childrens Bible Stories
Picture Bibles
Elementary Handbooks
2. Elementary Learning Level
If you do know several of the stories of the Bible, but don't really know where to start learning more. Maybe you tried "getting into the Bible" one or more times, but crashed and burned. But you are willing to try again, and realize that if you can take it a bite at a time, you can do it, then this is you. At the Elementary Learning Level.
In the past, this is where I always used to start with people.
Mainly because I remained at this level for about 20 years.
If you are at this level, you need tools for understanding.
Dictionary and Cultural context tools.
Maps and History guides
Bible Handbooks
Catechism type Books (Books that ask a lot of questions for you to explore)
Thesaurus
3. Intermediate Leaning Level
This is really an extension of the Elementary Level. OK, so you know your way around the Bible stories and you have some knowledge of the times and places where the events of the Bible took place, and have some idea how to break down Bible passages to gain a deeper understanding of what is really written.
Now you need tools to help find answers to the more difficult questions, usually posed by nonbelievers, but also posed by some of the more Elementary believers, and by some heritics (although for vastly different reasons).
These are tools for historical context
ExtraBiblical Tools to support the Bible
Archeological and Apologetics tools.
Simple Doctrinal Tools
3a. Some other stuff that might be of interest at this level are things others have written about the Bible. Stuff that Christians may or may not agree with, as far as doctrine or interpretation. These can give you insight about the disputes that arise over interpretations, and insight as to just what non beleivers do not understand, since much of what you know about the Bible may seem easy and straightforwards to you as you progress through the intermediate level of understanding. These can prevent or remedy complacency in interpretation.
3b. This may also be a good point at which to begin learning about various other religions, Christian and pseudo christian religions, and some other religions around the world.
4. Higher Learning Levels
I can't say much about this level, as I have only begun to explore at this level.
Studies of Apologetics
Studies of Doctrine
Original Language Translations and Lexicons (Vines)
Strong's Exhaustive Concordance
Ok, now that I have laid the ground work here, I will begin, in the future to lump study tools into one of the above categories. You can always use, though maybe with some difficulty, tools from a higher level. You can also use, though with diminished effectiveness, tools from a lower level. And, actually, you should be reviewing tools from the lower levels, for others who may be coming to you for guidance.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
FreeWare program of the month - KeyNote
I have been searching for a replacement for an old DOS (before Windows) editor that I use to keep my journal. Since I keep several kinds of information in it, and some of it is sensitive, this has been a daunting task. I need a tool which can keep multiple kinds of data, some in fairly massive amounts, can keep it private, and keep it "bookmarked" for easy access.
I think I found it in KeyNote
KeyNote is basically like having Wordpad that opens up to a complete set of files in a tree of folders. And it can stay minimized in your desktop (system) tray. Each time it opens, it can open to the last place you edited a specific file, making it useful as a log or journal.
In addition to begin able to import and export text and rich text files, you can edit rich text files from inside Keynote by using a link to that file (called a virtual node). Switching from one note to another or one file of notes to another is much faster than opening a new window (or new copy) of Wordpad, and again, they open to the last place you edited them.
Keynote provides for the (strong) Encryption of the entire file of notes, and also can do ROT13 (a quick substitution of the alphabet) on any particular text inside the file (to prevent someone from inadvertently reading it), making the word "particular look like "cnegvphyne". It can also reverse any text you highlight, making the word "particular" look like "ralucitrap." This means you can keep your notes, as a whole, safe from prying eyes, and if there is anything particularly sensitive in one or more of them, you can use ROT13 to keep it from being inadvertently read if someone walks up behind you while you are working.
I haven't found the spell check, thesaurus, or glossary yet, but there are program add-on's available (plug-in's) for those and other functions. I just haven't had time to explore those things yet. Also this tool is mainly for those of us still using WindowsXP or Win2K (it also works in Linux Wine), one of the current development projects is to port it to dotNET for Windows7, but that has not happened yet. Some people have been using it in Windows7, and some have reported problems with it in Windows7. Porting it to dotNET will fix Windows7, but it may kill it for Linux users.
This is not the ultimate fix for my search for the Perfect Journal Keeping Tool, but it looks like it is far better than any other I have looked at.
I think I found it in KeyNote
KeyNote is basically like having Wordpad that opens up to a complete set of files in a tree of folders. And it can stay minimized in your desktop (system) tray. Each time it opens, it can open to the last place you edited a specific file, making it useful as a log or journal.
In addition to begin able to import and export text and rich text files, you can edit rich text files from inside Keynote by using a link to that file (called a virtual node). Switching from one note to another or one file of notes to another is much faster than opening a new window (or new copy) of Wordpad, and again, they open to the last place you edited them.
Keynote provides for the (strong) Encryption of the entire file of notes, and also can do ROT13 (a quick substitution of the alphabet) on any particular text inside the file (to prevent someone from inadvertently reading it), making the word "particular look like "cnegvphyne". It can also reverse any text you highlight, making the word "particular" look like "ralucitrap." This means you can keep your notes, as a whole, safe from prying eyes, and if there is anything particularly sensitive in one or more of them, you can use ROT13 to keep it from being inadvertently read if someone walks up behind you while you are working.
I haven't found the spell check, thesaurus, or glossary yet, but there are program add-on's available (plug-in's) for those and other functions. I just haven't had time to explore those things yet. Also this tool is mainly for those of us still using WindowsXP or Win2K (it also works in Linux Wine), one of the current development projects is to port it to dotNET for Windows7, but that has not happened yet. Some people have been using it in Windows7, and some have reported problems with it in Windows7. Porting it to dotNET will fix Windows7, but it may kill it for Linux users.
This is not the ultimate fix for my search for the Perfect Journal Keeping Tool, but it looks like it is far better than any other I have looked at.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
America's Hidden History
America's Hidden History by Kenneth C. Davis
288 pages, date 2009 From Harper Paperbacks
From the Amazon Review: [this is] "a collection of extraordinary stories, each detailing an overlooked episode that shaped the nation's destiny and character"
From one of the 4 star customer reviews: "High School American History is what it is, a large composition of dates and names with little dimension of cause and effect."
My review:
I often say that history is best learned by studying it a little at a time for many years. Of course, each of us needs to get a foundation that can be provided by Junior High and High School, but that is little more than a framework to build real knowledge of history. America's Hidden History helps provide some of that real knowledge.
Most of the books I have reviewed in the past are beginner's books, and I have a particular affection for the "For Dummies" and similar kinds of books. This is not a "For Dummies" kind of book, and it is not a beginner's book. It goes into a great deal of detail about the lives and times of some of those who shaped our nation, and without some fairly detailed knowledge of those times, these stories are beyond understanding.
If you already have a fairly well rounded knowledge of pre-revolutionary America, this is a delightful little book of historical stories.
288 pages, date 2009 From Harper Paperbacks
From the Amazon Review: [this is] "a collection of extraordinary stories, each detailing an overlooked episode that shaped the nation's destiny and character"
From one of the 4 star customer reviews: "High School American History is what it is, a large composition of dates and names with little dimension of cause and effect."
My review:
I often say that history is best learned by studying it a little at a time for many years. Of course, each of us needs to get a foundation that can be provided by Junior High and High School, but that is little more than a framework to build real knowledge of history. America's Hidden History helps provide some of that real knowledge.
Most of the books I have reviewed in the past are beginner's books, and I have a particular affection for the "For Dummies" and similar kinds of books. This is not a "For Dummies" kind of book, and it is not a beginner's book. It goes into a great deal of detail about the lives and times of some of those who shaped our nation, and without some fairly detailed knowledge of those times, these stories are beyond understanding.
If you already have a fairly well rounded knowledge of pre-revolutionary America, this is a delightful little book of historical stories.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
FreeWare program of the month
Process Explorer
I have had some problems in the last few weeks with my PC getting choked on some kind of rogue programs. After running AntiVirus and SpyBot programs to insure it wasn't some kind of infection, I started looking for the circumstances under which it chokes.
Using task manager, I was able to determine some instances of it choking on certain web sites, but I always had to remember to start task manager each time I started working, and if I closed it for any reason (I have a habit of closing all of my windows, in rapid succession when I get a choke condition), I lost any history it had.
There is a really excellent utility to replace Task Manager (for Win2k and WinXP) that provides a lot of flexibility that Task Manager does not make convenient, such as starting up as soon as you log on, and when you hit close, it simply shrinks to a tray icon (you can actually close it from there if you wish).
Freeware program, the author does not ask for anything in return for its use. "Sysinternals," the author's website was acquired by Microsoft, but still seems to function as an independent resource, and has a lot of neat utilities.
Used with another program (Autorun) from the same sight, I found a couple of things loading at startup that I didn't know about, but in the long run, I am not enough of a whiz at computers to fix whatever is choking my PC. I did learn, from the author's blog, that I am not the only one that is having this problem, and it seems to be some poorly written programming, possibly in Java, for displaying web pages.
One caviot, Process Explorer has been "Upgraded" from the edition I am using, to work on Vista and Windows7. There may or may not be some bugs with the new release (there have been complaints). I would wait another month before trying the new edition, just in case.
I have had some problems in the last few weeks with my PC getting choked on some kind of rogue programs. After running AntiVirus and SpyBot programs to insure it wasn't some kind of infection, I started looking for the circumstances under which it chokes.
Using task manager, I was able to determine some instances of it choking on certain web sites, but I always had to remember to start task manager each time I started working, and if I closed it for any reason (I have a habit of closing all of my windows, in rapid succession when I get a choke condition), I lost any history it had.
There is a really excellent utility to replace Task Manager (for Win2k and WinXP) that provides a lot of flexibility that Task Manager does not make convenient, such as starting up as soon as you log on, and when you hit close, it simply shrinks to a tray icon (you can actually close it from there if you wish).
Freeware program, the author does not ask for anything in return for its use. "Sysinternals," the author's website was acquired by Microsoft, but still seems to function as an independent resource, and has a lot of neat utilities.
Used with another program (Autorun) from the same sight, I found a couple of things loading at startup that I didn't know about, but in the long run, I am not enough of a whiz at computers to fix whatever is choking my PC. I did learn, from the author's blog, that I am not the only one that is having this problem, and it seems to be some poorly written programming, possibly in Java, for displaying web pages.
One caviot, Process Explorer has been "Upgraded" from the edition I am using, to work on Vista and Windows7. There may or may not be some bugs with the new release (there have been complaints). I would wait another month before trying the new edition, just in case.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
A Christian MUST
Support a local Church - if any exists. If you are a missionary in a hostile country, well then, there should be a Church, somewhere, supporting you. But if you are here in the U.S., you need to be supporting a local Church.
I have written, before, on how to find a good Church.
Support them financially, if you can. If you are one of the 30% of our country that is having trouble putting food on the table, hen this does not apply to you. If you can afford cable TV (other than the $15 a month "limited basic" package), then you can afford to give, at least a little. You are not required to Tithe, or give 10%. Or any other amount. Giving is voluntary, and more importantly, the amount of giving is up to you. I covered that in an earlier article.
But even if you cannot give money to the Church, you can give the pastor a word of encouragement. Did he cover a point of scripture you have been wondering about? Did he give you encouragement? Did he provide a point of view that you had not heard before? And support them by praying for them. Pray for the Pastor. Pray for the Elders. Pray for those in need. Support them by prayer and giving an encouraging word. Both to their face, and to others
in the community.
UPDATE: Here is an article on a similar subject, that might have planted the seed for this one.
I have written, before, on how to find a good Church.
Support them financially, if you can. If you are one of the 30% of our country that is having trouble putting food on the table, hen this does not apply to you. If you can afford cable TV (other than the $15 a month "limited basic" package), then you can afford to give, at least a little. You are not required to Tithe, or give 10%. Or any other amount. Giving is voluntary, and more importantly, the amount of giving is up to you. I covered that in an earlier article.
But even if you cannot give money to the Church, you can give the pastor a word of encouragement. Did he cover a point of scripture you have been wondering about? Did he give you encouragement? Did he provide a point of view that you had not heard before? And support them by praying for them. Pray for the Pastor. Pray for the Elders. Pray for those in need. Support them by prayer and giving an encouraging word. Both to their face, and to others
in the community.
UPDATE: Here is an article on a similar subject, that might have planted the seed for this one.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
The big event this quarter
The big event in my personal blogosphere this past month was the (hopefully temporary) destruction of the Combat Effective BBS. I still don't know the motives behind this crime, but I believe the owner of the board is working on resurrecting it, and we may eventually discover who the criminals were.
I began a campaign to comment on other blogs around the country, but have not had much time to do enough of that, but did notice that at least one of my comments (and not a controversial comment) was deleted. Will have to watch responses to my comments more closely.
In the past couple of months, I posted a lot of random material about Christianity and Bible Study, and even got corrected on an event in Britain where it, at first, looked like a case of persecution, but turned out the news paper had jumped the gun and the rest of us followed suit.
I still plan more on Bible Study, but will be taking it on somewhat of a different track, since all people are not equal in their needs, when it comes to study material. I also plan more articles updating my previous ones from years ago on net neutrality and on the cost of producing and or storing electricity.
I have decided to make my first post of each month on the subject of either Christian Living, or Bible Study. This just seems to make more sense to me, if for no other reason than economic statistics are not ready until several days into the month. And it will add some consistency, which is something I need.
I spent some time trying to restore some recent substantial material from CombatEffective (dead link) on France dealing with Shariah Law. This link from Politics Daily might substitute.
But I could not find anything to replace his article on Comparing War to Hockey (another dead link).
Hopefully the next few months will be better.
.
I began a campaign to comment on other blogs around the country, but have not had much time to do enough of that, but did notice that at least one of my comments (and not a controversial comment) was deleted. Will have to watch responses to my comments more closely.
In the past couple of months, I posted a lot of random material about Christianity and Bible Study, and even got corrected on an event in Britain where it, at first, looked like a case of persecution, but turned out the news paper had jumped the gun and the rest of us followed suit.
I still plan more on Bible Study, but will be taking it on somewhat of a different track, since all people are not equal in their needs, when it comes to study material. I also plan more articles updating my previous ones from years ago on net neutrality and on the cost of producing and or storing electricity.
I have decided to make my first post of each month on the subject of either Christian Living, or Bible Study. This just seems to make more sense to me, if for no other reason than economic statistics are not ready until several days into the month. And it will add some consistency, which is something I need.
I spent some time trying to restore some recent substantial material from CombatEffective (dead link) on France dealing with Shariah Law. This link from Politics Daily might substitute.
But I could not find anything to replace his article on Comparing War to Hockey (another dead link).
Hopefully the next few months will be better.
.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Finally Somebody Takes Action
From the BBC:
A suspected pirate has been shot dead as private guards repelled an attack on a cargo ship off Somalia, in what may have been the first such incident.
Now, all we have to do is wait for the LEFTIST's to attack these law abiding shippers.
Or maybe not. If all goes well, piracy will be a lot less fun and profit in the future.
But then again, that is why the LEFTIST's will attack them.
(LEFTIST: Lying Everywhere, Fighting Truth In Society Today)
Monday, March 22, 2010
Border Fence - Quick Update
I didn't post on this topic in February, but I think from my January posting, we can see four things.
First is that a border fence, despite propaganda and disinformation to the contrary, is an effective deterrent. And this can be seen, even with the incomplete fence we now have. Second, the U.S. population is distracted, at this time, by high unemployment and the Obamacare fiasco. Third, we have a long way to go. The goal is not to increase the number of smugglers and other illegal crossers that we catch. Our goal is to make the border so impenetrable that the number of smugglers and other illegal crossers actually is reduced, due to the perception that it can't be done. Forth. we need a website that details the progress of the border security project. It should all but ignore things like busts, numbers of border agents, deployments of troops, and other "make work" distractions. We need a site that concentrates on when and where the security infrastructure is being beefed up.
Some notes on Border Patrol press releases.
Among the many articles are tons and tons of Marijuana, and millions and millions of dollars worth of other illegal drugs. Much easier to catch this stuff if it is funneled into narrow corridors at the legal border crossings (and funneled into ever smaller 'holes' in the fence) In addition, there are stories here of capture of sex offenders, and of smugglers getting creative. Even to the point of trying to use SCUBA to go through the sewer system.
What is missing from the month of Feb are the stories of illegals. Can't be certain why. Could be the weather, or that jobs were so scarce here that the illegals just stayed in Mexico. In March they were back in the news, with a story every couple of days.
First is that a border fence, despite propaganda and disinformation to the contrary, is an effective deterrent. And this can be seen, even with the incomplete fence we now have. Second, the U.S. population is distracted, at this time, by high unemployment and the Obamacare fiasco. Third, we have a long way to go. The goal is not to increase the number of smugglers and other illegal crossers that we catch. Our goal is to make the border so impenetrable that the number of smugglers and other illegal crossers actually is reduced, due to the perception that it can't be done. Forth. we need a website that details the progress of the border security project. It should all but ignore things like busts, numbers of border agents, deployments of troops, and other "make work" distractions. We need a site that concentrates on when and where the security infrastructure is being beefed up.
Some notes on Border Patrol press releases.
Among the many articles are tons and tons of Marijuana, and millions and millions of dollars worth of other illegal drugs. Much easier to catch this stuff if it is funneled into narrow corridors at the legal border crossings (and funneled into ever smaller 'holes' in the fence) In addition, there are stories here of capture of sex offenders, and of smugglers getting creative. Even to the point of trying to use SCUBA to go through the sewer system.
What is missing from the month of Feb are the stories of illegals. Can't be certain why. Could be the weather, or that jobs were so scarce here that the illegals just stayed in Mexico. In March they were back in the news, with a story every couple of days.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Successful LED Lights
This article is mostly historical, as I give some thoughts on most of the LED Flashlights I have owned in the past. Eventually every light must be replaced. Especially working in a somewhat harsh environment, like I do. If God is willing, I will write an article on my current lights and post it in a few days.
One of the first Headlamps I owned was a "Kids Adventure" headlamp, that I can't find any more. It would run for a night or two on 2xAA batteries. I replaced it with a cheap headlamp I got from a supply house that used 3AAA batteries and had 5 LED's. It would run for several nights and gave off more light. Around the same time I bought a 14 LED flashlight that also took 3AAA batteries, and it did a pretty good job, but the color spectrum was decidedly deficiant, so I would also carry a little krypton bulb flashlight to check colors when I needed to do that.
This was back around 2005, and about that time a serious cave explorer near Boston published an article that said White LED's Suck. Naturally, that slowed down my desire to buy a good LED flashlight, even after the rough treatment and harsh environment killed off my 14 LED flashlight.
However, around that time, I got a 3 LED Mag-Light conversion kit, and while it wasn't perfect (no focusing), it did create more light for much longer battery life. And the light color out of it was pretty good.
Also, by chance I ran across a TaskForce 1W LED flashlight that bragged: "Super High intensity LED flashlight" (it used to be available at many department stores and hardware stores for about $20 but not available any more). It was marked half price, so I snatched it up and it was the best flashlight I owned for a couple of years. It ran on 3 AA batteries, had pretty good water tightness (better than the one above). It was brighter than the 14 LED flashlight above, and the better focus provided far more reach. The body of the flashlight had a couple of weak points, but those were fixed with electrical tape and I used it for about 4 years, until the switch wore out.
As I used it, though, I noticed the LED got progressively dimmer over the years, unitl at the end, it was about half the brightness of when I got it. I found out that this is normal, although it happened a little quicker than normal. LED's don't usually burn out, but they grow progressively dimmer after hundreds of hours of use.
In the mean time, I bought a cheap 3W LED flashlight that did no better than the 1W TaskForce light and did not last long at all. One of the problems with this light is that it ran on 2AA batteries, and without a regulator (an expensive add on, at that time) it could not achieve full brightness, nor would it stay bright very long. The beating it took riding around with me on the job soon broke the parts loose inside and it died.
One other nice thing I bought a few years back was a 12 LED lantern. Runs on 4 D cells, the light is blueish and not very bright. But it does the job I got it for. It gives me an area light, brighter than candles and will run for days during power outages.
It will probably be next week before I post
about my current assortment of lights,
mostly made by Ray-O-Vac
One of the first Headlamps I owned was a "Kids Adventure" headlamp, that I can't find any more. It would run for a night or two on 2xAA batteries. I replaced it with a cheap headlamp I got from a supply house that used 3AAA batteries and had 5 LED's. It would run for several nights and gave off more light. Around the same time I bought a 14 LED flashlight that also took 3AAA batteries, and it did a pretty good job, but the color spectrum was decidedly deficiant, so I would also carry a little krypton bulb flashlight to check colors when I needed to do that.
This was back around 2005, and about that time a serious cave explorer near Boston published an article that said White LED's Suck. Naturally, that slowed down my desire to buy a good LED flashlight, even after the rough treatment and harsh environment killed off my 14 LED flashlight.
However, around that time, I got a 3 LED Mag-Light conversion kit, and while it wasn't perfect (no focusing), it did create more light for much longer battery life. And the light color out of it was pretty good.
Also, by chance I ran across a TaskForce 1W LED flashlight that bragged: "Super High intensity LED flashlight" (it used to be available at many department stores and hardware stores for about $20 but not available any more). It was marked half price, so I snatched it up and it was the best flashlight I owned for a couple of years. It ran on 3 AA batteries, had pretty good water tightness (better than the one above). It was brighter than the 14 LED flashlight above, and the better focus provided far more reach. The body of the flashlight had a couple of weak points, but those were fixed with electrical tape and I used it for about 4 years, until the switch wore out.
As I used it, though, I noticed the LED got progressively dimmer over the years, unitl at the end, it was about half the brightness of when I got it. I found out that this is normal, although it happened a little quicker than normal. LED's don't usually burn out, but they grow progressively dimmer after hundreds of hours of use.
In the mean time, I bought a cheap 3W LED flashlight that did no better than the 1W TaskForce light and did not last long at all. One of the problems with this light is that it ran on 2AA batteries, and without a regulator (an expensive add on, at that time) it could not achieve full brightness, nor would it stay bright very long. The beating it took riding around with me on the job soon broke the parts loose inside and it died.
One other nice thing I bought a few years back was a 12 LED lantern. Runs on 4 D cells, the light is blueish and not very bright. But it does the job I got it for. It gives me an area light, brighter than candles and will run for days during power outages.
It will probably be next week before I post
about my current assortment of lights,
mostly made by Ray-O-Vac
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Todays LED Lights
While the hype of Green House Gases and Global Warming has been shown to be a complete hoax, there have been some good technologies that came out of the push for being greener than green. One of those better technologies is the vast improvments in LED's
While white LED's have been around since before the year 2000, the quality of light was very poor. One article, written several years back was actually titled "Why White LED's Suck," The author had a point. The brightness available from the early "bright white" LED that he tried was lacking, and the color rendition was horible.
I did some previous research and
posted three articles on LED's back
in December 2006 on this blog.
Even more resently, a couple of new LED's have emerged. The Seoul SSC P4 and the Cree XR-E. Both produce more light and can be used for 1W to maybe 5W lights. These show great promise for brighter lights and longer lasting batteries, but are just out of reach for my budget right now. There are even more advanced LED's, but these get progressively more expensive, putting them out of my reach.
As LED lights have improved, they have rapidly gained a well earned acceptance as the light of choice for almost all battery powered applications. This is because of the high cost of electricity from almost all battery (and some generator) sources. I touched on the cost of batteries and generators for power back in October 2008 in this blog. Suffice it to say that power from rechagable batteries or a generator will cost you 20 or more times what it costs coming out of an outlet, and power from non rechargable batteries will cost you about 10 times as much as rechargable batteries (over the long run).
Still, with limited exceptions, like the under $3 LED night lights and some Christmas lights, LED's are not really a good deal for household lighting. The difference in efficiancy between them and flourescent lights isn't enough to reccommend their use.
Sources for more information. Nearly all of the information in this article comes from discussions on the CandlePower Forum and from the Flashlight Reviews website. At these websites, you can find people who can only be described as addicted to lights of all kinds, especially flashlights. Some even modify or manufacture their own devices. (Actually, I suspect some of those who post there are flashlight or other tool manufactures.)
I expect to post on some specific flashlights I use, sometime in the next couple of weeks.
While white LED's have been around since before the year 2000, the quality of light was very poor. One article, written several years back was actually titled "Why White LED's Suck," The author had a point. The brightness available from the early "bright white" LED that he tried was lacking, and the color rendition was horible.
I did some previous research and
posted three articles on LED's back
in December 2006 on this blog.
Geek Alert: the following discussions repeatedly refer to 1W, 3W, 5W and 7W. The W is short for Watt. These are power consumption ratings of various lights, and generally just mean we are using more power from the batteries, getting more light, producing more heat, running the batteries down faster, and in some cases (like 5 and 7W LED's) running risk of damaging the LED's.But things have gotten better. The light from 1W LED's is somewhat brighter, but much more importantly, the color of the light has improved. And over past several years, not only have manufactures learned to coax more power through the LED's for even brighter light (hence 3W LED's and even a few 5W and 7W LED's) from essentially the same 1 W Luxeon
Even more resently, a couple of new LED's have emerged. The Seoul SSC P4 and the Cree XR-E. Both produce more light and can be used for 1W to maybe 5W lights. These show great promise for brighter lights and longer lasting batteries, but are just out of reach for my budget right now. There are even more advanced LED's, but these get progressively more expensive, putting them out of my reach.
As LED lights have improved, they have rapidly gained a well earned acceptance as the light of choice for almost all battery powered applications. This is because of the high cost of electricity from almost all battery (and some generator) sources. I touched on the cost of batteries and generators for power back in October 2008 in this blog. Suffice it to say that power from rechagable batteries or a generator will cost you 20 or more times what it costs coming out of an outlet, and power from non rechargable batteries will cost you about 10 times as much as rechargable batteries (over the long run).
Still, with limited exceptions, like the under $3 LED night lights and some Christmas lights, LED's are not really a good deal for household lighting. The difference in efficiancy between them and flourescent lights isn't enough to reccommend their use.
Sources for more information. Nearly all of the information in this article comes from discussions on the CandlePower Forum and from the Flashlight Reviews website. At these websites, you can find people who can only be described as addicted to lights of all kinds, especially flashlights. Some even modify or manufacture their own devices. (Actually, I suspect some of those who post there are flashlight or other tool manufactures.)
I expect to post on some specific flashlights I use, sometime in the next couple of weeks.
Prosperity and Unification Herasies
I noticed some years back, that there seemed to by an upswing in the "prosperity gospel" heresy. It seems to have caught on in the corporate world, where it led many down the path of destruction in both the very late 90's and again in the Economic Bubble (really bubbles on top of bubbles) of 2004 -2007.
Here is an article from Bloomberg Financial News that sheds a little light on the origins of how this heresy caught on in the corporate world.
Here is an excerpt (if you can't stand the messed up formatting,
see the original):
Unification
Everybody remembers the "Moonies." Those guys who used to sell things and ask for donations at airports. They haven't gone away. Jesus, in Luke 21:8 (and other places) warned "See that you not be deceived, for many will come in my name, saying, 'I am he,' and 'The time has come.' 3 Do not follow them!" (New American Bible)
Well, successful cult leaders have to reinvent themselves from time to time. Now (and probably always) called the "Unification Church." Rev. Moon is reinventing himself, while trying to unite all of the various religions under one roof.
Excerpt:
Hasn't this been tried before? Ever heard of the Baha'i Faith?
Excerpt:
Nothing New Under The Sun (or the Moon)
Here is an article from Bloomberg Financial News that sheds a little light on the origins of how this heresy caught on in the corporate world.
Here is an excerpt (if you can't stand the messed up formatting,
see the original):
Lundborg: When did the business world adopt positive thinking?So, the upshot is that the corporate guys brought in this stupidity to cover themselves when they laid off their employees, then became infected with the same disease themselves.
Ehrenreich: It came into the corporations beginning in the late 1980s as a way of calming people down during layoffs.
You send the laid-off people to the out-placement firm, where they get pep talks on changing their attitude. The
survivors need motivational speakers so they can do the work of two people.
Lundborg: But it didn’t stop there?
Ehrenreich: No. I thought it was something brought in cynically, but I was surprised to learn it came to
be believed by the higher-up managers themselves.
There was an amazing change away from rational analysis, and toward an idea that leadership meant
having brilliant intuitions, charisma and almost mystical powers.
Lundborg: How did it turn toxic?
Fire Negative People
Ehrenreich: Positive thinking became the ideology of the business world in America. You could not raise
criticisms or doubts because there were policies to fire negative people, those who brought other
people down with their skeptical thoughts.
Unification
Everybody remembers the "Moonies." Those guys who used to sell things and ask for donations at airports. They haven't gone away. Jesus, in Luke 21:8 (and other places) warned "See that you not be deceived, for many will come in my name, saying, 'I am he,' and 'The time has come.' 3 Do not follow them!" (New American Bible)
Well, successful cult leaders have to reinvent themselves from time to time. Now (and probably always) called the "Unification Church." Rev. Moon is reinventing himself, while trying to unite all of the various religions under one roof.
Excerpt:
Sun Myung Moon today seems more bent upon his quest to recasting himself in global public opinion than ever. As J. Isamu Yamamoto put it well in the mid-1990's: "Like any man in his late 70s who has tons of cash to throw away, who is obsessed with how people perceive him, and who still yearns to fulfill the glorious dreams of his youth, he is trying to purchase an exceedingly expensive face-lift. He wants to appear more culturally relevant and less religiously arcane by transforming the image of his movement from a church-oriented crusade into a family-affirming organization" (1). Unificationism has long hidden behind the veneer of respectability that its support of academic, political, industrial and conservative front groups has provided for it. But Moon's self-imposed mission of ecumenically-oriented values crusading has been openly seeking for years to create a base of interracial and interfaith support for his real agenda, the advancement of his antichristian Unification platform. This is perhaps the most disturbing development in the Unification Church's ambitious efforts in recent years.
Hasn't this been tried before? Ever heard of the Baha'i Faith?
Excerpt:
The Bahá'à Faith has been an active part of religious and social life in America since the late 1800s. We are a recognized advocate for spiritual solutions based on the Teachings of Bahá'u'lláh on issues such as the elimination of prejudice, the equality of women and men, the universal education of children, and the establishment of world peace.
The Bahá'Ãs are part of a worldwide religious community united by the belief that there is one God, one human race, and one evolving religion.
Nothing New Under The Sun (or the Moon)
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Update on sluggish economy
The past few weeks have seen a lot of optimistic talk, and just a few naysayers. Some people, mostly the Democratic Party Clueless and Obama Worshipers think this thing is behind us and even when confronted with evidence to the contrary, will say things are rosy.
A recent speech by Obama shows he is out of touch with reality. And a quote from that speech is all I need as evidence of his delusion:
"it is largely thanks to the Recovery Act that a second depression is no longer a possibility,"
The "recovery" (not even a real recovery yet) is so fragile at this time, that the weather can bring it down.
And in addition, China is facing its own banking crisis, this time because of their role in the Chinese stimulus programs.
Looking at a six month chart on the manufacturing sector shows after last month's little jobs growth the growth in manufacturing is now back to flat.
The Wall Street Journal has a little blurb that, while the facts are correct, over all gist is bologna. (Many think that this is a conservative paper, but really, it is just one segment of their staff and much of their readership that is conservative.) Even in a six paragraph article, the author tries to spin bad news to sound good.
Surprisingly, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel presents the same facts, without the spin (but I don't know if that link will stay up).
A quote from that article shows the real story:
So, dig your heels in for the long haul. Real recovery, with jobs and good wages, is still years (maybe 3 years, maybe 10 years) away.
.
A recent speech by Obama shows he is out of touch with reality. And a quote from that speech is all I need as evidence of his delusion:
"it is largely thanks to the Recovery Act that a second depression is no longer a possibility,"
The "recovery" (not even a real recovery yet) is so fragile at this time, that the weather can bring it down.
And in addition, China is facing its own banking crisis, this time because of their role in the Chinese stimulus programs.
Looking at a six month chart on the manufacturing sector shows after last month's little jobs growth the growth in manufacturing is now back to flat.
The Wall Street Journal has a little blurb that, while the facts are correct, over all gist is bologna. (Many think that this is a conservative paper, but really, it is just one segment of their staff and much of their readership that is conservative.) Even in a six paragraph article, the author tries to spin bad news to sound good.
Surprisingly, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel presents the same facts, without the spin (but I don't know if that link will stay up).
A quote from that article shows the real story:
"This 2.9% loss of jobs over the decade continues to be the first decade-long decline in jobs since the Great Depression," the firm wrote in a report Friday. Reflecting the nation's growing trade deficit, "the manufacturing sector suffered most over the past decade," losing 5.7 million jobs - "perhaps the worst decade for manufacturing in U.S. history," the forecasting firm noted.
So, dig your heels in for the long haul. Real recovery, with jobs and good wages, is still years (maybe 3 years, maybe 10 years) away.
.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
Charaties - Salvation Army and GoodWill
From time to time I find that people don't know what Goodwill and the Salvation Army are all about, so here is a short piece to clear up matters. There are two primary differences between the Salvation Army and Goodwill. The Salvation Army is an Evangelistic Mission that grew out of a Fundamentalist Church, with the dual purpose of reaching the hearts of the people through their stomachs and building a respect for the Church through a clean and consistent presentation of their people.
Goodwill, more correctly, Goodwill Industries International is a secular organization that works to train and find employment for people. All of their donations and sales work towards the furtherance of getting people trained and into meaningful employment.
While there is almost no similarity in their final mission, there is similarity in their methods and in their intermediate goals, and thus the confusion. I feel that both are necessary in our world, both are reaching out to the poor and probably providing more benefits, in the long run, than any governmental organization ever could.
Goodwill, more correctly, Goodwill Industries International is a secular organization that works to train and find employment for people. All of their donations and sales work towards the furtherance of getting people trained and into meaningful employment.
While there is almost no similarity in their final mission, there is similarity in their methods and in their intermediate goals, and thus the confusion. I feel that both are necessary in our world, both are reaching out to the poor and probably providing more benefits, in the long run, than any governmental organization ever could.
another review of CFL's
Well, it is getting warmer - or at least less cold. If you are at all concerned with your electric bill, one of the things you probably consider is whether to switch to compact fluorescent lights (CFL's) I write this at the end of winter, since any extra heat from your lights in the winter is no problem, as it merely warms your home. In the summer, which will be here soon, extra heat must be pumped out by your AC, so a 100 watt incandescent bulb actually costs you for about 120 watts of electricity.
I have written about this subject in the past:
In my first article I recommended them and warned that LED lights are still not ready for household use. In the second article, I clarified that I didn't mean to go out and buy one for every light in the house, discussed improvements they have made in quality of light and size of the bulbs. And in the third article, I said that I am still not satisfied with the state of the art, that they need to get a little smaller yet, but that it may put a little green in your pockets if you switch some of your bulbs. I have switched about half of mine.
So, here is this year's update:
Most of us have pretty good electric rates this year, so I am of the opinion that this isn't too critical yet, and anyone who thinks they don't want to buy CFL's this year won't really lose a lot. And for that matter, I am disappointed in how little progress there has been in the quality of CFL's. They are still half an inch or so longer than their incandescent counterparts (I thought I found some that were the same size, but am very disappointed with the quality of the light output).
On the other hand, the price has come down, so you can get good quality CFL's for $3 or 4$ each (the ones I bought that I didn't like the quality of were 6 for $10, so stick to brands you trust) rather than the $6 to $8 they used to cost. Don't believe the reports you hear of them quitting after only a month or so, those people either had an ax to grind, or were just extremely unlucky. I have bought about two dozen over the last 10 years, and use dozens of them at work, and I have only had one of mine, and maybe a couple at work, die prematurely. Buy four at a time, from a descent quality name brand, and the economics should work in your favor.
LED lights are still not ready for home use, except if you find the little 1/4 watt LED night lights for a couple dollars. Those seem to be good. And a friend of mine has had good luck with LED Christmas lights. But overall, I only recommend them for things that run on batteries, and I will write more about that later.
I have written about this subject in the past:
In my first article I recommended them and warned that LED lights are still not ready for household use. In the second article, I clarified that I didn't mean to go out and buy one for every light in the house, discussed improvements they have made in quality of light and size of the bulbs. And in the third article, I said that I am still not satisfied with the state of the art, that they need to get a little smaller yet, but that it may put a little green in your pockets if you switch some of your bulbs. I have switched about half of mine.
So, here is this year's update:
Most of us have pretty good electric rates this year, so I am of the opinion that this isn't too critical yet, and anyone who thinks they don't want to buy CFL's this year won't really lose a lot. And for that matter, I am disappointed in how little progress there has been in the quality of CFL's. They are still half an inch or so longer than their incandescent counterparts (I thought I found some that were the same size, but am very disappointed with the quality of the light output).
On the other hand, the price has come down, so you can get good quality CFL's for $3 or 4$ each (the ones I bought that I didn't like the quality of were 6 for $10, so stick to brands you trust) rather than the $6 to $8 they used to cost. Don't believe the reports you hear of them quitting after only a month or so, those people either had an ax to grind, or were just extremely unlucky. I have bought about two dozen over the last 10 years, and use dozens of them at work, and I have only had one of mine, and maybe a couple at work, die prematurely. Buy four at a time, from a descent quality name brand, and the economics should work in your favor.
LED lights are still not ready for home use, except if you find the little 1/4 watt LED night lights for a couple dollars. Those seem to be good. And a friend of mine has had good luck with LED Christmas lights. But overall, I only recommend them for things that run on batteries, and I will write more about that later.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
A Lot Happening
A lot has been happening the past few days.
Most of the people reading this will be aware of the Earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the South Pacific. As I was watching the news coverage on Fox News, I was appalled at the ignorance of those reporting. Many referring to Mother Nature, and none giving credit to God. Many questions about earthquakes and tsunamis that should have been known by those reporting on it. I mean come on folks, pick up an encyclopedia and read up on the phenomenon before you go on the air. And one cameraman and reporter, covering the story seemed to have more interest in video shots of the reporter's shirt than anything else.
I was quite surprised to hear that even as the tsunami came to shore on Hawaii, that they couldn't say when it would actually arrive and did not yet (12 hours after the quake) know how many waves there would be. I would have thought there would be sensors about 100 miles out from the shore line, announcing the arrival, and there are certainly many sensors throughout the Pacific to count how many waves occurred.
On a more local front, Combat Effective was attacked and effectively shut down for now. Rebuilding will take a while, but the web site is not the owners highest priority, so it may be down for weeks. I guess we should take that as meaning we were on the right track, and became a threat to America's enemies.
In the mean time, I intend to get this blog back on track, after neglecting it for the past three weeks, and will begin tracking the approach of the elections this fall.
Most of the people reading this will be aware of the Earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the South Pacific. As I was watching the news coverage on Fox News, I was appalled at the ignorance of those reporting. Many referring to Mother Nature, and none giving credit to God. Many questions about earthquakes and tsunamis that should have been known by those reporting on it. I mean come on folks, pick up an encyclopedia and read up on the phenomenon before you go on the air. And one cameraman and reporter, covering the story seemed to have more interest in video shots of the reporter's shirt than anything else.
I was quite surprised to hear that even as the tsunami came to shore on Hawaii, that they couldn't say when it would actually arrive and did not yet (12 hours after the quake) know how many waves there would be. I would have thought there would be sensors about 100 miles out from the shore line, announcing the arrival, and there are certainly many sensors throughout the Pacific to count how many waves occurred.
On a more local front, Combat Effective was attacked and effectively shut down for now. Rebuilding will take a while, but the web site is not the owners highest priority, so it may be down for weeks. I guess we should take that as meaning we were on the right track, and became a threat to America's enemies.
In the mean time, I intend to get this blog back on track, after neglecting it for the past three weeks, and will begin tracking the approach of the elections this fall.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Big News Nobody Saw
The biggest news story of January was missed by almost everyone.
China made an unexpected move to tighten credit, by increasing the reserves maintained by banks. These reserves act as ballast, to keep the economies upright and reduce the bouncing up and down that otherwise would occur in the credit markets. Lack of these reserves is one of the things that led to the giant bubble economy of a few years ago. (Actually, it was and is bubbles upon bubbles, but that is a story for a different day.)
Here is an excerpt from that BIG STORY that ran on 13 Jan:
News also found here
world’s largest lender by market value falls
and here
"Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days,
while copper and oil declined after
China raised the amount banks have to hold in reserve."
Two weeks later "Asian stocks snapped their longest losing streak since 2004, European shares and U.S. index futures rallied and the yen fell after Federal Reserve policy makers said America’s economy is in a recovery,"
But this is just an example, repeated every month for the past year, of talk of good times and the markets will rally. Soon after, they proceeded lower again, as skittishness over jobs reports (released about a week into every month) drained enthusiasm.
And just how are we doing on jobs?
The news had a good, but fake number right up front. So thin even the mainstream media picked up on the underlying bad news. The unemployment rate dropped, but the economy is still shedding jobs. People have been out of work so long they have dropped off the back end of the safety net and are no longer counted as unemployed. The real unemployment rate is still near 18%. And while we need to be adding 200,000 jobs a month just to maintain our current state of employment, this month they "adjusted" so many numbers from so many months that it makes me wonder how many jobs we really are losing.
One report said "The government’s survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labor force rose. The gain brought the participation rate, or the share of the population in the labor force, up to 64.7 percent in January from 64.6 percent." There were other reports showing we had lost workers. It is getting hard to know what to believe.
But there is a small kernel of very, very good news hidden in all of this.
(Feb 5) Factory payrolls increased 11,000 in January, the biggest gain since April 2006, after falling 23,000 in the prior month.
And I don't know where this next article gets its history. The manufacturing index has been above water for the past 3 months, but manufacturing jobs continued to shrink until this month. The article says:
"Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been a driver of the recovery and is projected to continue to expand. The strength has yet to translate into more factory jobs. "
But overall, this expansion in manufacturing is one of two good bits of news. The drop in oil prices, and a drop in the price of fuel at the pump, is partially attributable to the sudden contraction in credit in China, and that too will fuel increases in U.S. manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing tends to be very energy intensive, so it will help us more than it will help Europe, which is already being hamstrung by a "Cap and Tax" system that impedes it from properly utilizing vast amounts of energy for its industry.
On the government front, we seem to have dodged the double barreled bullet of Socialist Medicine under the Obamacare label, and the "Cap and Tax" economy killer. Both are at least comatose, if not dead. This is fortunate, as I forecast back on the 29th of July, that the two of them would be the end of us.
China made an unexpected move to tighten credit, by increasing the reserves maintained by banks. These reserves act as ballast, to keep the economies upright and reduce the bouncing up and down that otherwise would occur in the credit markets. Lack of these reserves is one of the things that led to the giant bubble economy of a few years ago. (Actually, it was and is bubbles upon bubbles, but that is a story for a different day.)
Here is an excerpt from that BIG STORY that ran on 13 Jan:
The People’s Bank of China yesterday raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves by 50 basis points starting Jan.The repercussions from that move caused the markets to move lower over the next several days, coinciding with President Obama's speech about taxing the banks. Thus he got the blame for the markets tanking, and for once he wasn't the guilty party.
18. Economists hadn’t anticipated the move until at least April, the median of 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed last week.
Policy makers may follow up by raising their benchmark rate in coming months, rather than waiting until the second half of the year as most economists in the survey had projected. By moving ahead of the [U.S.] Federal Reserve, which plans to keep rates near zero for an “extended” period, pressure will rise to allow the yuan to appreciate for the first time since mid-2008.
News also found here
world’s largest lender by market value falls
and here
"Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days,
while copper and oil declined after
China raised the amount banks have to hold in reserve."
Two weeks later "Asian stocks snapped their longest losing streak since 2004, European shares and U.S. index futures rallied and the yen fell after Federal Reserve policy makers said America’s economy is in a recovery,"
But this is just an example, repeated every month for the past year, of talk of good times and the markets will rally. Soon after, they proceeded lower again, as skittishness over jobs reports (released about a week into every month) drained enthusiasm.
And just how are we doing on jobs?
The news had a good, but fake number right up front. So thin even the mainstream media picked up on the underlying bad news. The unemployment rate dropped, but the economy is still shedding jobs. People have been out of work so long they have dropped off the back end of the safety net and are no longer counted as unemployed. The real unemployment rate is still near 18%. And while we need to be adding 200,000 jobs a month just to maintain our current state of employment, this month they "adjusted" so many numbers from so many months that it makes me wonder how many jobs we really are losing.
One report said "The government’s survey of households showed employment increased by 541,000 workers last month and the number of people in the labor force rose. The gain brought the participation rate, or the share of the population in the labor force, up to 64.7 percent in January from 64.6 percent." There were other reports showing we had lost workers. It is getting hard to know what to believe.
But there is a small kernel of very, very good news hidden in all of this.
(Feb 5) Factory payrolls increased 11,000 in January, the biggest gain since April 2006, after falling 23,000 in the prior month.
And I don't know where this next article gets its history. The manufacturing index has been above water for the past 3 months, but manufacturing jobs continued to shrink until this month. The article says:
"Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been a driver of the recovery and is projected to continue to expand. The strength has yet to translate into more factory jobs. "
But overall, this expansion in manufacturing is one of two good bits of news. The drop in oil prices, and a drop in the price of fuel at the pump, is partially attributable to the sudden contraction in credit in China, and that too will fuel increases in U.S. manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing tends to be very energy intensive, so it will help us more than it will help Europe, which is already being hamstrung by a "Cap and Tax" system that impedes it from properly utilizing vast amounts of energy for its industry.
On the government front, we seem to have dodged the double barreled bullet of Socialist Medicine under the Obamacare label, and the "Cap and Tax" economy killer. Both are at least comatose, if not dead. This is fortunate, as I forecast back on the 29th of July, that the two of them would be the end of us.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Why study the Bible
There are several reasons Christians (and many others) should study the Bible. First and foremost for Christians is to provide resistance to the many heretics that rise into public view, mostly on Television. It is important for Christians to be able to discern real and unreal Christian leadership.
This important skill has been known (but not well used) since the days of the Puratins. The first public education bill passed in the colonies was the "Old Deluder Satan Act"
which said, in part:
Don't be discouraged if the above sentence is hard to read, (in addition to being in "old English") you can jump from "unknown tongue" to the simicolon after "deceivers" when reading to get the majority of the meaning. The remainder is parenthetical.
Note also: Tongues mean languages, both spoken and written. The unknown tongue refers to the Catholics keeping the Bible in Latin so that people could not read it for themselves.
In addition to Biblical Prophesies being fulfilled in Europe and the Middle East (as well as maybe here), we have the threat of many in our own Republican Party attempting to hijack the Scriptures for their own purposes of greed and dishonor. And the Pseudo Christian governments in Europe, South and Central America have been so totally corrupted (except maybe some in the British Isles) that they are no longer of any use at all to our cause.
And what is our cause? Proclaiming the Glory of God, and the Good News of Salvation through Grace in Jesus Christ.
This important skill has been known (but not well used) since the days of the Puratins. The first public education bill passed in the colonies was the "Old Deluder Satan Act"
which said, in part:
It being one chief project of that old deluder, Satan, to keep men form the knowlege of the Scriptures, as in former times keeping them in an unknown tongue, so in these later times by perswading from the use of tongues, that so at least the true sense and meaning of the Originall might be clowded by false glosses of Saint-seeming deceivers; and that Learning may not be buried in the graves of our fore-fathers in Church and Commonwealth, the Lord assisting our indeavers: it is therefore ordered by this Court and Authoritie therof;
Don't be discouraged if the above sentence is hard to read, (in addition to being in "old English") you can jump from "unknown tongue" to the simicolon after "deceivers" when reading to get the majority of the meaning. The remainder is parenthetical.
Note also: Tongues mean languages, both spoken and written. The unknown tongue refers to the Catholics keeping the Bible in Latin so that people could not read it for themselves.
In addition to Biblical Prophesies being fulfilled in Europe and the Middle East (as well as maybe here), we have the threat of many in our own Republican Party attempting to hijack the Scriptures for their own purposes of greed and dishonor. And the Pseudo Christian governments in Europe, South and Central America have been so totally corrupted (except maybe some in the British Isles) that they are no longer of any use at all to our cause.
And what is our cause? Proclaiming the Glory of God, and the Good News of Salvation through Grace in Jesus Christ.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Reading Amazon Book Reviews
It has come to my attention (by way of talk radio) that certain factions are working in a concerted effort to poison the reviewer remarks for some books on Amazon. Specifically, there appears to be coordinated efforts by Atheists and Socialists to leave disparaging comments and mark other comments as "not helpful." And specifically these remarks are being made towards books by Christians and conservatives writing about America. I don't know how much of this is going on (and honestly, I see only sporatic evidence of it), but I thought I would share my method of avoiding such nonsense. My technique was originally designed to avoid concieted reviews by the friends and relatives of the author, and general nay-sayers who just don't like what they are reading.
This is primarily useful for books (or products) with lots and lots of reviews. On those with only a couple of reviews, I just read all of them. On products with enough reviews to make reading all of them impractical, I just read the 4-star reviews. Or just the three star reviews. Whichever seems to be a reasonable number to read. This avoids those who wrote a review but forgot to mark how many stars. Avoids the ones that are just glowing reviews with no substance. And avoids the vandals that are just there to run the product down.
The real purpose of reading reviews is to find out if the book or product is a good match for the customer, not really to find out if it is a good match for the world. Sometimes, if I am particularly taken by a reviewer, I might even click on their name and see what else they reviewed. This isn't useful for hunting donw the Atheists or other vandals, however, as they are likely to be cowards that will create mulitple personalities to tear down Christian writings.
There are also comments left on the reviews, but I don't find them useful for book reviews, as they just tend to be argumentative. For product reviews, however, they can sometimes clear up misconceptions about the product or company.
This is primarily useful for books (or products) with lots and lots of reviews. On those with only a couple of reviews, I just read all of them. On products with enough reviews to make reading all of them impractical, I just read the 4-star reviews. Or just the three star reviews. Whichever seems to be a reasonable number to read. This avoids those who wrote a review but forgot to mark how many stars. Avoids the ones that are just glowing reviews with no substance. And avoids the vandals that are just there to run the product down.
The real purpose of reading reviews is to find out if the book or product is a good match for the customer, not really to find out if it is a good match for the world. Sometimes, if I am particularly taken by a reviewer, I might even click on their name and see what else they reviewed. This isn't useful for hunting donw the Atheists or other vandals, however, as they are likely to be cowards that will create mulitple personalities to tear down Christian writings.
There are also comments left on the reviews, but I don't find them useful for book reviews, as they just tend to be argumentative. For product reviews, however, they can sometimes clear up misconceptions about the product or company.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Persecution in America and Allies
For some time, I didn't know what to begin making of this. I don't think I will create a label, but I will begin a regular (monthly?) series of articles on the Persecution of Christians in North America, and in some of the (formerly) christian countries of Europe.
It should not surprise us that this is happening. Jesus said that if we follow him, we should expect persecution. In fact, we can draw a conclusion from some of the things He said, that if we are not experiencing persecution, we might only be fooling ourselves about our salvation. Most christians are not experiencing persecution, because they are practicing Christianity Lite, and will be surprised when meeting Jesus in the afterlife, at what He really expected of them. And that they are surprised should not be any surprise. How can they follow Jesus, if they have no idea what the Bible says about following Jesus? (Thus, my quest, to get Christians to study the Bible.)
I think the first story, and currently the most visible to come to mind is Brit Hume's comment about Tiger Woods needing Jesus Christ. This set off a firestorm among the secularist, socialist, and even some of "Christianity Lite" circles.
The first to speak out against Brit Hume were "journalists" of the drive by media. But this can be expected of them, as the world, and especially the Secular Humanist (Socialist) religion of the drive by media is offended and threatened by hearing The Truth and The Gospel. They are not offended by hearing about Buddhism (or Hinduism, or Atheism, or Islam) because it is NOT The Truth, and does not convict them.
Example Links:
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann twice claimed that FNC contributor and former anchor Brit Hume’s public recommendation that Tiger Woods convert to Christianity to help solve his personal problems amounted to trying to "threaten" Woods
Olbermann also plugged the segment before a commercial break: "Brit Hume has tried to force Tiger Woods into becoming a Christian again. - That in a moment."
Brit Hume: 'Jesus Christ' the 'Most Controversial Two Words You Can Ever Utter in the Public Square'
(CNSNews.com) – Brit Hume said he was “not surprised” by the media backlash over his remarks to Tiger Woods on “Fox News Sunday” this week. There is a “double-standard” when it comes to speaking publicly about Christianity versus other religions, he said.
Hume, a Fox News analyst, told CNSNews.com: “There is a double standard. If I had said, for example, that what Tiger Woods needed to do was become more deeply engaged in his Buddhist faith or to adopt the ideas of Hinduism, which I think would be of great spiritual value to him, I doubt anybody would have said anything.”
And an example of that double standard,
even from some Christian Lite sources:
Religion on Fox: News or evangelism?
(Washington Post quotes a "Baptist" columnist)
The picture on the television screen and the audio of reporter Brit Hume's words struck me as contradictory. Just below the image of the reporter's face, the insignia "Fox News" appeared in three different places.
Among our "allies," persecution has begun in earnest. While they are not yet being dragged out into the streets or thrown into jail in England, their jobs are at risk:
Olive Jones, a former teacher who gave at-home math lessons to children too weak or ill to attend school, was told after she offered to pray for the child that the family were nonbelievers. The student's mother complained to the Oak Hill Short Stay School and Tuition Service in Nailsea, North Somerset. Jones' proposition was regarded as "bullying," and she ultimately lost her job.
I wrote about this subject last spring,
and mentioned about Canada the year before.
.
It should not surprise us that this is happening. Jesus said that if we follow him, we should expect persecution. In fact, we can draw a conclusion from some of the things He said, that if we are not experiencing persecution, we might only be fooling ourselves about our salvation. Most christians are not experiencing persecution, because they are practicing Christianity Lite, and will be surprised when meeting Jesus in the afterlife, at what He really expected of them. And that they are surprised should not be any surprise. How can they follow Jesus, if they have no idea what the Bible says about following Jesus? (Thus, my quest, to get Christians to study the Bible.)
I think the first story, and currently the most visible to come to mind is Brit Hume's comment about Tiger Woods needing Jesus Christ. This set off a firestorm among the secularist, socialist, and even some of "Christianity Lite" circles.
The first to speak out against Brit Hume were "journalists" of the drive by media. But this can be expected of them, as the world, and especially the Secular Humanist (Socialist) religion of the drive by media is offended and threatened by hearing The Truth and The Gospel. They are not offended by hearing about Buddhism (or Hinduism, or Atheism, or Islam) because it is NOT The Truth, and does not convict them.
Example Links:
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann twice claimed that FNC contributor and former anchor Brit Hume’s public recommendation that Tiger Woods convert to Christianity to help solve his personal problems amounted to trying to "threaten" Woods
Olbermann also plugged the segment before a commercial break: "Brit Hume has tried to force Tiger Woods into becoming a Christian again. - That in a moment."
Brit Hume: 'Jesus Christ' the 'Most Controversial Two Words You Can Ever Utter in the Public Square'
(CNSNews.com) – Brit Hume said he was “not surprised” by the media backlash over his remarks to Tiger Woods on “Fox News Sunday” this week. There is a “double-standard” when it comes to speaking publicly about Christianity versus other religions, he said.
Hume, a Fox News analyst, told CNSNews.com: “There is a double standard. If I had said, for example, that what Tiger Woods needed to do was become more deeply engaged in his Buddhist faith or to adopt the ideas of Hinduism, which I think would be of great spiritual value to him, I doubt anybody would have said anything.”
And an example of that double standard,
even from some Christian Lite sources:
Religion on Fox: News or evangelism?
(Washington Post quotes a "Baptist" columnist)
The picture on the television screen and the audio of reporter Brit Hume's words struck me as contradictory. Just below the image of the reporter's face, the insignia "Fox News" appeared in three different places.
Among our "allies," persecution has begun in earnest. While they are not yet being dragged out into the streets or thrown into jail in England, their jobs are at risk:
Olive Jones, a former teacher who gave at-home math lessons to children too weak or ill to attend school, was told after she offered to pray for the child that the family were nonbelievers. The student's mother complained to the Oak Hill Short Stay School and Tuition Service in Nailsea, North Somerset. Jones' proposition was regarded as "bullying," and she ultimately lost her job.
I wrote about this subject last spring,
and mentioned about Canada the year before.
.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Border Fence - the cause is right
With this being an election year, the status of the border fence (and other border security issues) should be one of the more visible issues presented to our candidates. Especially those going to Washington. And let's not forget, every single Representative (along with a third of the Senate and quite a few Governors) is up for re-election (or replacement).
Those who wish to destroy us have managed to promote a myth so far and wide that even a lot of otherwise reasonable and rational people have come to believe it. That a fence does not work, because it can be breached or bypassed. Look at any auto salvage or auto repair business and what do you see? A fence. Look at any military installation and what do you see? A fence. There is also a similar myth that a fence only keeps us in. Where does this come from? Law abiding people don't sneak across a border or jump the fence. They come and go through the gate. This, of course comes from our enemies, and is aimed at those who have not given this much thought.
And there is some proof that the fence, only about 20% (or less) complete, is already providing some protection. And, of course, it is the same evidence that our enemies would point to, trying to persuade us to stop defending ourselves. As an example:
Incomplete Border Tunnel Found In San Diego (Dec 2009)
But, it is not like people have completely forgotten the subject. A recent (Nov 2009) Washington Post Poll showed 61 Percent of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents Say GOP Puts ‘Too Little’ Emphasis on Illegal Immigration, (The poll asked respondents their opinion about the degree of emphasis the Republican Party puts on eight issues: gun rights, same-sex marriage, abortion, federal spending, taxes, the environment, illegal immigration, and the economy and jobs.)
Meanwhile, the news page for the Border Patrol is choked with trivial stuff, causing articles to scroll off of the page quickly. However, a periodic update link was helpful.
I discovered this article (5 Jan 2010), showing that attention given the border provides a good return on investment, among the many listed. Excerpt:
Just a note, on that last line: "other nationals."
Smugglers? or Terrorists?
The article doesn't say.
But without the fence, absolutely no one would know.
We must remain steadfast.
.
Those who wish to destroy us have managed to promote a myth so far and wide that even a lot of otherwise reasonable and rational people have come to believe it. That a fence does not work, because it can be breached or bypassed. Look at any auto salvage or auto repair business and what do you see? A fence. Look at any military installation and what do you see? A fence. There is also a similar myth that a fence only keeps us in. Where does this come from? Law abiding people don't sneak across a border or jump the fence. They come and go through the gate. This, of course comes from our enemies, and is aimed at those who have not given this much thought.
And there is some proof that the fence, only about 20% (or less) complete, is already providing some protection. And, of course, it is the same evidence that our enemies would point to, trying to persuade us to stop defending ourselves. As an example:
Incomplete Border Tunnel Found In San Diego (Dec 2009)
DEA said Mexican authorities discovered an incomplete tunnel from Tijuana, Mexico running across the border. It was over 1800 feet and as much as 90 feet deep. This took a great deal of effort (two years) and expense (millions of dollars) to build, and would not be necessary were it not for an effective border fencing system they had to bypass.From time to time, there are stories of checkpoint personnel or other Border Patrol personnel taking bribes to help smuggle people or contraband across the border. Again, if the fence were not providing any protection, these bribes would not be necessary, and again, this provides proof that the fence is beginning to work.
But, it is not like people have completely forgotten the subject. A recent (Nov 2009) Washington Post Poll showed 61 Percent of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents Say GOP Puts ‘Too Little’ Emphasis on Illegal Immigration, (The poll asked respondents their opinion about the degree of emphasis the Republican Party puts on eight issues: gun rights, same-sex marriage, abortion, federal spending, taxes, the environment, illegal immigration, and the economy and jobs.)
Meanwhile, the news page for the Border Patrol is choked with trivial stuff, causing articles to scroll off of the page quickly. However, a periodic update link was helpful.
I discovered this article (5 Jan 2010), showing that attention given the border provides a good return on investment, among the many listed. Excerpt:
The statistics of the Yuma Sector of the U.S. Border Patrol do not tell the entire story but the go a long way to explain the significant improvements in security over the last five years.
Back in 2005, there were 138,000 arrests along the Yuma Sector's 126 miles of border they are responsible for, Beeson noted. But in 2009, those arrests were down to just 7,356. That is a 94 percent decrease in illegal activity.
The Yuma Station was the busiest of all 146 Border Patrol stations in 2005, Beeson reminded his hushed audience. "Vehicle drive throughs" (failure to stop) at the border was 2,700 five years ago while last year it dropped to 109.
"We've made a significant impact on illegal activity all along our sector. We say, we have 'operational control' over all 126 miles. So that's the ability to protect, classify, respond, and resolve all cross border threats."
But Beeson gives credit where it is due and praises the efforts of the National Guard who were temporarily stationed at the border in 2006. The Guard helped significantly with the Border Patrol's tactical infrastructure which included vehicle and pedestrian fencing, lighting, and all weather patrol roads, Beeson said.
"From the time the Guard showed up illegal traffic dropped precipitously. The Guard gave us a big leg up with our infrastructure."
Coupled with that beefed up infrastructure was a substantial increase in personnel, jumping from 358 agents in 2005 to 977 agents last year, Beeson noted. They also have a very strong air branch now, including helicopters and fixed wing aircraft deployed on a regular basis to support their ground surveillance.
They also received mobile surveillance systems, trucks with radar and cameras that can scan the whole area and greatly helped the Yuma Sector gain control of the border, he added.
The border is a very remote, harsh desert climate, Beeson said. Along with arrests they performed 19 rescues. In addition, they had 6,951 apprehensions of Mexican Nationals crossing illegally and 405 apprehensions of other nationals in 2009.
Just a note, on that last line: "other nationals."
Smugglers? or Terrorists?
The article doesn't say.
But without the fence, absolutely no one would know.
We must remain steadfast.
.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Future Of Blogging
In the past, the science of blogging has been mostly benefited the liberals. There are a number of reasons for this, but some very important ones include less work ethic means they have more time for blogging and other social interaction, and they have fewer morals and less restraint on techniques for attracting attention.
This is a volume, as well as quality game, and if we are to make headway in this culture war, we must learn the lessons they have given us to improve our visibility to others.
I think I have learned some lessons over the past couple of years. First, I have a pretty limited amount of time to contribute, and second is that traffic is driven to a blog through two means. One is the number of posts, and the second is the number of other blogs that link to it.
The liberals have for the past several years used that second criteria to their advantage. Posting many comments on other peoples blogs, each with a link to their own blog. This is a sort of spam attack that allows even conservative blogs to unwittingly lend credibility to liberal blogs.
One thing I intend to do over the next year is to attract attention to one political blog that I mostly agree with (not my own, I am far too obscure). I will do that by registering with, and regularly posting comments to, several well balanced blogs that have fairly high traffic, located around the country and around the cyberscape. Each comment will have a link to the target blog. Note that I won't be spamming. If I have nothing worth saying, I won't just post garbage. That is one of the moral limitations we conservatives must keep.
This is a volume, as well as quality game, and if we are to make headway in this culture war, we must learn the lessons they have given us to improve our visibility to others.
I think I have learned some lessons over the past couple of years. First, I have a pretty limited amount of time to contribute, and second is that traffic is driven to a blog through two means. One is the number of posts, and the second is the number of other blogs that link to it.
The liberals have for the past several years used that second criteria to their advantage. Posting many comments on other peoples blogs, each with a link to their own blog. This is a sort of spam attack that allows even conservative blogs to unwittingly lend credibility to liberal blogs.
One thing I intend to do over the next year is to attract attention to one political blog that I mostly agree with (not my own, I am far too obscure). I will do that by registering with, and regularly posting comments to, several well balanced blogs that have fairly high traffic, located around the country and around the cyberscape. Each comment will have a link to the target blog. Note that I won't be spamming. If I have nothing worth saying, I won't just post garbage. That is one of the moral limitations we conservatives must keep.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
The Drop in Unemployment that is NOT
There was quite a bit in the news last about a drop in unemployment. This was a convenient fiction. It got some people some good publicity and others a bump up in their stock portfolio. The economy continues to shed jobs, although at a slowing rate. Worse news is that we continue to shed manufacturing jobs (although at a slowing rate). We can make unlimited gains in all other sectors, and if we don't gain manufacturing jobs, we will never prosper. Understanding that the population continues to grow, even if the economy were shedding zero jobs, the number of unemployed would continue to rise.
Unemployment remains steady?
Why? It merely means this recession has gone on long enough that a lot of people are dropping off of the back side of the safety net. They are no longer counted. I said, a couple of months ago, that there is about 7 percent unemployment unaccounted for in the official numbers. That "uncounted" unemployment is slowly rising towards 8%, and from what I have read, it may pass 8% this month. This problem may be further masked by a temporary hiring of over a million temporary government workers for the census, the first half of 2010.
When the economy really does improve, many of the formerly fully employed will find themselves scratching for crumbs while working one or two part time or temporary jobs. Real improvement at all levels of our society is not yet even in sight. Bloomberg had a good article in early November that exposes our long term outlook. Look for the phrases "risk of deflation"
and the phrase "Treasuries are still worth buying"
The "W" I thought I saw a few months ago in the economic outlook, now looks it may be just pause in the downward spiral of our national economic health. Economists are still looking for the second dip in what they would call a "double dip recession" (As an historical note, the Great Depression was a triple dip) It is impossible to say at this point, but remember, when looking at these charts, our population is increasing by about 1% per year, so a level line indicates a downward trend.
We are still looking forwards to a sharp increase in inflation. It may still be a year or two away, but it will be almost impossible to avoid. Hopefully improvements in the employment situation will happen at the same time. Those improvements are not likely to come first.
Those who are still thinking of investing in Gold? I don't think so. The window of opportunity came and went a year ago. I currently don't see it happening again for quite some time. Gold today should be around $930 an ounce. The rest is run up from excess demand (that means bubble). Currently I am beginning to look into the idea of Rare Earth Minerals. This would be futile on an individual basis, but could be possible for a corporation (think "bank," but holding minerals instead of cash).
Gas and Oil Rising
Gasoline this winter is dropped, about 20 cents or so off of its peak last summer, But don't get used to it. It will rise again, peaking around 50 cents higher than last summer. The reason for these fluctuations (and keep in mind there is several months lag between oil prices and "gas at the pump" prices) is a dip and then recovery in oil prices. Complicating this, and maybe exacerbating the run up in prices,. is the falling value of the dollar, and the coming inflationary period. Gas could easily increase by another dollar between May 1st of this year and May 1st of next year.
Oil, bouncing back from a catastrophic fall in 2008, will likely resume its climb to $100 a barrel and beyond. The good news is that means it will be worth enough to pump some of it right here at home. Unfortunately, we don't have an infinite supply of it. China is importing and using a steadily increasing amount, and unlike US, they have a pretty good grip on how to handle the supply and demand on a national level. If we are smart, we will invest heavily in coal fired power plants, nuclear, and natural gas. If we are mislead by the Global Warming Crowd (which we now know to be a hoax) , we may foolishly think solar, wind, other alternative fuels and conservation will fix everything. Those things will be useful, but they will not do the job by themselves for at least a hundred years.
Articles of interest:
U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak (Bloomberg Dec 9)
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar (Bloomberg Dec 4)
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2.67 Trillion (Bloomberg Dec 10)
[for a substantial portion of that look above at foreclosures]
Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation (Dec. 8 Bloomberg)
Quote: "Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling? Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months is that it took so long to arrive. "
With unemployment passing 10 percent and millions of jobs gone for good, the recession is taking a brutal human toll. Quote: "they receive temporary state and federal unemployment benefits—which for most workers total about 60 percent of their former pay. But unless Congress extends them, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks" Nov 19
Reuters Blogger James Penthokoukis
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
Unemployment remains steady?
Why? It merely means this recession has gone on long enough that a lot of people are dropping off of the back side of the safety net. They are no longer counted. I said, a couple of months ago, that there is about 7 percent unemployment unaccounted for in the official numbers. That "uncounted" unemployment is slowly rising towards 8%, and from what I have read, it may pass 8% this month. This problem may be further masked by a temporary hiring of over a million temporary government workers for the census, the first half of 2010.
When the economy really does improve, many of the formerly fully employed will find themselves scratching for crumbs while working one or two part time or temporary jobs. Real improvement at all levels of our society is not yet even in sight. Bloomberg had a good article in early November that exposes our long term outlook. Look for the phrases "risk of deflation"
and the phrase "Treasuries are still worth buying"
The "W" I thought I saw a few months ago in the economic outlook, now looks it may be just pause in the downward spiral of our national economic health. Economists are still looking for the second dip in what they would call a "double dip recession" (As an historical note, the Great Depression was a triple dip) It is impossible to say at this point, but remember, when looking at these charts, our population is increasing by about 1% per year, so a level line indicates a downward trend.
We are still looking forwards to a sharp increase in inflation. It may still be a year or two away, but it will be almost impossible to avoid. Hopefully improvements in the employment situation will happen at the same time. Those improvements are not likely to come first.
Those who are still thinking of investing in Gold? I don't think so. The window of opportunity came and went a year ago. I currently don't see it happening again for quite some time. Gold today should be around $930 an ounce. The rest is run up from excess demand (that means bubble). Currently I am beginning to look into the idea of Rare Earth Minerals. This would be futile on an individual basis, but could be possible for a corporation (think "bank," but holding minerals instead of cash).
Gas and Oil Rising
Gasoline this winter is dropped, about 20 cents or so off of its peak last summer, But don't get used to it. It will rise again, peaking around 50 cents higher than last summer. The reason for these fluctuations (and keep in mind there is several months lag between oil prices and "gas at the pump" prices) is a dip and then recovery in oil prices. Complicating this, and maybe exacerbating the run up in prices,. is the falling value of the dollar, and the coming inflationary period. Gas could easily increase by another dollar between May 1st of this year and May 1st of next year.
Oil, bouncing back from a catastrophic fall in 2008, will likely resume its climb to $100 a barrel and beyond. The good news is that means it will be worth enough to pump some of it right here at home. Unfortunately, we don't have an infinite supply of it. China is importing and using a steadily increasing amount, and unlike US, they have a pretty good grip on how to handle the supply and demand on a national level. If we are smart, we will invest heavily in coal fired power plants, nuclear, and natural gas. If we are mislead by the Global Warming Crowd (which we now know to be a hoax) , we may foolishly think solar, wind, other alternative fuels and conservation will fix everything. Those things will be useful, but they will not do the job by themselves for at least a hundred years.
Articles of interest:
U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak (Bloomberg Dec 9)
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar (Bloomberg Dec 4)
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2.67 Trillion (Bloomberg Dec 10)
[for a substantial portion of that look above at foreclosures]
Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation (Dec. 8 Bloomberg)
Quote: "Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling? Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months is that it took so long to arrive. "
With unemployment passing 10 percent and millions of jobs gone for good, the recession is taking a brutal human toll. Quote: "they receive temporary state and federal unemployment benefits—which for most workers total about 60 percent of their former pay. But unless Congress extends them, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks" Nov 19
Reuters Blogger James Penthokoukis
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
The Aproaching Primary Elections
This is an "off year" election season. What does that mean to an intelligent citizen? Our vote counts double. And counts triple in the Primary Election coming up in a couple months. Here in Texas, the primaries are the 2nd of March. In years past, I advocated telling everyone you knew that the primary season is a good time to vote and try to get everyone to the ballot boxes for every election.
NO MORE.
Now I have seen that too many of our citizenry are seduced with the modern drugs of socialism and liberalism, political correctness and post modernism. And, of course, celebrity worship. And too many of them have no idea what government's true purpose is, or what the Constitution says about our government and our nation. Too many of them, "educated" by the liberal government schools, do not know the true foundations of our nation, and do not know the true underpinnings of our society.
Today I advocate discernment. Find out which of your friends and acquaintances have been seduced with the drugs above, and which have not. And tell those, which have not been seduced, how important it is to get out and vote.
Of course, this being an election year, many of the projects that were pretending to be "shovel ready" for last year's stimulus will actually be worked on this year. This will provide some temporary work for some of the people seeking jobs. And make it look, temporarily, like the current liberal administration is actually helping the country get back on its feet. In reality, it was the liberal policies of the current and past political machine that got us into the mess our economy is in, and the programs that were put into place last year will ultimately make things worse. This will make our job harder.
Listening to conservative talk radio, one might get an idea that the next elections are all wrapped up. I estimate that, at least 8 times an hour, I hear how the public is so peeved that the Democrats cannot hope to win the next election, and that any Republican with any sense will embrace conservative values. Get real. About half of the public has no idea what is good for the country and will only vote for which ever candidate is a pretty boy.
We cannot be complacent. Nor can we simply concede defeat. Nor can we just sit idly by and wait for the return of Jesus (if He returns today, we lose nothing by espousing Christian values of liberty and economy, if He tarries long, we lose much by allowing tyranny and despotism to destroy possibly the last remaining place on Earth we can be assured of our freedom to practice Christianity in Peace.
We must be harmless as sheep, but we must never forget that the Bible tells us to be as wise as serpents.
A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves. - Edward R. Murrow
NO MORE.
Now I have seen that too many of our citizenry are seduced with the modern drugs of socialism and liberalism, political correctness and post modernism. And, of course, celebrity worship. And too many of them have no idea what government's true purpose is, or what the Constitution says about our government and our nation. Too many of them, "educated" by the liberal government schools, do not know the true foundations of our nation, and do not know the true underpinnings of our society.
Today I advocate discernment. Find out which of your friends and acquaintances have been seduced with the drugs above, and which have not. And tell those, which have not been seduced, how important it is to get out and vote.
Of course, this being an election year, many of the projects that were pretending to be "shovel ready" for last year's stimulus will actually be worked on this year. This will provide some temporary work for some of the people seeking jobs. And make it look, temporarily, like the current liberal administration is actually helping the country get back on its feet. In reality, it was the liberal policies of the current and past political machine that got us into the mess our economy is in, and the programs that were put into place last year will ultimately make things worse. This will make our job harder.
Listening to conservative talk radio, one might get an idea that the next elections are all wrapped up. I estimate that, at least 8 times an hour, I hear how the public is so peeved that the Democrats cannot hope to win the next election, and that any Republican with any sense will embrace conservative values. Get real. About half of the public has no idea what is good for the country and will only vote for which ever candidate is a pretty boy.
We cannot be complacent. Nor can we simply concede defeat. Nor can we just sit idly by and wait for the return of Jesus (if He returns today, we lose nothing by espousing Christian values of liberty and economy, if He tarries long, we lose much by allowing tyranny and despotism to destroy possibly the last remaining place on Earth we can be assured of our freedom to practice Christianity in Peace.
We must be harmless as sheep, but we must never forget that the Bible tells us to be as wise as serpents.
A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves. - Edward R. Murrow
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Are You Really a Christian?
So, What makes you think your a Christian?
As I have talked to many christians recently, I have found that a great number of them have no real idea what it is to be a christian. Many are living in direct conflict with what the Bible teaches about being a Christian.
How can that be, and what are the differences that I am seeing?
Differences come in two forms. Things we do that are opposed to God, and things we don't do that God commands us to do. In years past, the first was the problem. Many so called christians would do things in direct opposition to what the Bible teaches. But I am convinced that now, and in the immediate future, the larger problem will be so called christians, and also many real Christians, not doing what the Bible teaches we must.
The major problem with Christians not doing what the Bible teaches is that they don't know what the Bible teaches. In fact, many are so uneducated about the Bible that any so called Pastor can teach them what ever they want and the Christian will not know the difference.
This problem did not come about over night (in fact, it was the reason the Lutheran Church and the King Jams Bible came into existance), and it won't be solved overnight. But we Christians must attack this problem on a daily basis, through our own Bible study and through encouraging any professing Christian to study the Word.
As I have talked to many christians recently, I have found that a great number of them have no real idea what it is to be a christian. Many are living in direct conflict with what the Bible teaches about being a Christian.
How can that be, and what are the differences that I am seeing?
Differences come in two forms. Things we do that are opposed to God, and things we don't do that God commands us to do. In years past, the first was the problem. Many so called christians would do things in direct opposition to what the Bible teaches. But I am convinced that now, and in the immediate future, the larger problem will be so called christians, and also many real Christians, not doing what the Bible teaches we must.
The major problem with Christians not doing what the Bible teaches is that they don't know what the Bible teaches. In fact, many are so uneducated about the Bible that any so called Pastor can teach them what ever they want and the Christian will not know the difference.
This problem did not come about over night (in fact, it was the reason the Lutheran Church and the King Jams Bible came into existance), and it won't be solved overnight. But we Christians must attack this problem on a daily basis, through our own Bible study and through encouraging any professing Christian to study the Word.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
MicroSoft Does Something Right?
I have, these past few weeks, been taking a look at Windows 7. Maybe it is the competition from Linux (highly likely, since a lot of the "new" features in Win7 were already available in Linux), or maybe it is just how badly they screwed up some things in XP and Vista. But either way, it looks like they have done something good with Win7.
I normally wait a full year before looking into any new product from MicroSoft, but between the way they screwed up with Vista and some favorable reviews I saw this year on Win7, I thought I would take a look at it before the year was up. Plus, I got my wife a netbook, and the only thing I could find was either Vista or Win7. After doing about a week of research, it was an easy choice.
From the fact that all of the programing loads from a single disc - no matter which version you are buying (and there are about 5 versions) - to the way it handles hibernation and switching users, it looks like they have done a better job than any previous editions.
That is not to say I will be totally enamored with it. First, it costs over $100 a copy. Although you can get a family pack of 3 copies for less than the single copy price, a feature only useful to businesses in the past.
I still think, ultimately, Linux will be the way to go. But Win7 ain't bad.
I normally wait a full year before looking into any new product from MicroSoft, but between the way they screwed up with Vista and some favorable reviews I saw this year on Win7, I thought I would take a look at it before the year was up. Plus, I got my wife a netbook, and the only thing I could find was either Vista or Win7. After doing about a week of research, it was an easy choice.
From the fact that all of the programing loads from a single disc - no matter which version you are buying (and there are about 5 versions) - to the way it handles hibernation and switching users, it looks like they have done a better job than any previous editions.
That is not to say I will be totally enamored with it. First, it costs over $100 a copy. Although you can get a family pack of 3 copies for less than the single copy price, a feature only useful to businesses in the past.
I still think, ultimately, Linux will be the way to go. But Win7 ain't bad.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Living Biblically 4
This is the 4th and final part to my review of the book "The Year of Living Biblically"
One of the reasons I recommended this book in the first place is that it provides a bird's eye view of the whole of Christianity. The author sets out, among other things, to look at every facet, denomination, sect, and cult of both Jewish and Christian (although, primarily the Jewish) religions. It is a breathtaking look at the variety of viewpoints and interpretations of the Bible, and despite being centered mostly on Old Testament, I think Christians should find it greatly interesting.
My first three reviews:
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/01/book-pre-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/02/book-mid-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/04/book-review.html
I have been told by reliable teachers, once you think you have a good grip on what you think you believe, it is always good to look around at those whom you might have a disagreement with. Sometimes they will give you insight you didn't previously have. Otherwise, it is still good, they can make you do the hard work of justifying your beliefs more precisely.
As I have mentioned before, the author misses the big picture, but he does get some impressive insights right. One of the ones I hadn't seen clearly before was the Sabbath. He got this one more right than I did.
Other reasons for reading (and owning) this book are the excellent lists of "footnotes," the index and the lists of (most of) the books he read while researching and writing this book. He really does have an impressive bibliography.
And I should also mention that, as it is written in diary format, it is a lesson in how to keep a journal, and how to examine that journal - both, for insight and for a good historical reference.
One of the reasons I recommended this book in the first place is that it provides a bird's eye view of the whole of Christianity. The author sets out, among other things, to look at every facet, denomination, sect, and cult of both Jewish and Christian (although, primarily the Jewish) religions. It is a breathtaking look at the variety of viewpoints and interpretations of the Bible, and despite being centered mostly on Old Testament, I think Christians should find it greatly interesting.
My first three reviews:
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/01/book-pre-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/02/book-mid-review.html
http://crypto-corinthian.blogspot.com/2009/04/book-review.html
I have been told by reliable teachers, once you think you have a good grip on what you think you believe, it is always good to look around at those whom you might have a disagreement with. Sometimes they will give you insight you didn't previously have. Otherwise, it is still good, they can make you do the hard work of justifying your beliefs more precisely.
As I have mentioned before, the author misses the big picture, but he does get some impressive insights right. One of the ones I hadn't seen clearly before was the Sabbath. He got this one more right than I did.
Other reasons for reading (and owning) this book are the excellent lists of "footnotes," the index and the lists of (most of) the books he read while researching and writing this book. He really does have an impressive bibliography.
And I should also mention that, as it is written in diary format, it is a lesson in how to keep a journal, and how to examine that journal - both, for insight and for a good historical reference.
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